Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Away til middle of next week so will look at models with real interest then.  The very mobile signal for Feb is on 'and some' but I also feel that as we went through Feb we 'may' see pressure rise from our southern quadrant.  T240 looks possible pivotal point.  ECM has deep LP but possible AZH ridge developing behind, although that looks transient at this stage.  GFS goes on to see ridges from south and north develop with north winning out.  Deep FI but not unwarranted.  Will we dry out?  will we turn cold or v mild?  Or as the Express has said....storms til Spring. 

Currently though neartime the theme is southerly tracking LPs, very strong winds/stormy, very heavy rain........

 

BFTP

[weather eater]

Away til middle of next week so will look at models with real interest then.  The very mobile signal for Feb is on 'and some' but I also feel that as we went through Feb we 'may' see pressure rise from our southern quadrant.  T240 looks possible pivotal point.  ECM has deep LP but possible AZH ridge developing behind, although that looks transient at this stage.  GFS goes on to see ridges from south and north develop with north winning out.  Deep FI but not unwarranted.  Will we dry out?  will we turn cold or v mild?  Or as the Express has said....storms til Spring. 

Currently though neartime the theme is southerly tracking LPs, very strong winds/stormy, very heavy rain........

 

BFTP

The Express may well have done us a favour Fred, they are so good at getting it wrong that we should be hopeful of their early demise, so a week or so not a month.

[Summer Sun]

Once again this morning longer term signs are for a welcome respite from the heaviest rain across the south, but before then we have another week to get though first and signs are not good with over 100mm possible for the south west

 

[Jason M]

Looking through GEFS and GEM ensembles there are a few nice little HLBs creeping into the output for mid month. The second half of this month may just surprise a few people I suspect. Still odds against, but a cold spell in late feb can pack a serious punch. The issue with feb 2005 was the source of the airmass not the time of year.

[Tim Bland]

06z is like a game if pin the tail on the low. If one slips SE and allows the flow to back NW we could see a few of those elusive magic white flakes?!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=150&code=0&mode=0

Around Greenland at day 8 the temp at 1500m is -30 meanwhile in the stratosphere it is 0c!

Edited February 1, 2014 by Tim Bland

[CLH the red dragon]

Accumulated totals appears slightly less on the 06Z GFS. Fingers crossed...........

[nick sussex]

Overall today a few signs that the strat warming will have some effect on the trop but this may just be temporary if the PV reforms after any split.

 

The GFS is consistent with a developing low moving east around T216hrs across the USA, engaging some of the PV over Canada.Because of this we probably will see some deepening and downstream hopes for anything colder will rely on how amplified the pattern is upstream at this time.

 

Possibly a high pressure cell developing to the north near Iceland but this will likely be temporary unless we can see trough disruption upstream to support this, overall we're still feeding off the scraps after all the good food has disappeared off the buffet table!

 

Given the timing of the reverse zonal flow in the strat if anything is going to pop up quickly it will be around day 9/10.

[summer blizzard]

A trend appearing. The 5th operational to build pressure from the 13th in a row.

 

[IDO]

Certainly the winter of the Canadian Vortex. I have been saying for a long time this is the driver this winter and despite lulls in the Long wave pattern of the Atlantic and warming in the strat, this will likely preside over us till Spring.

 

Anyway the GFS 06z FI falls in line with the 0z mean with no GH: 

 

And no sign of a waning PV.

 

ECM extended 2m Temps a bit like GEFS 0z, the mean still average but scatter in FI with a few cooler members:

 

 

So hints of pressure rises to the SE still in the background.

 

Rainfall and potential storms remain the calling card of this winter:

 

Total rainfall next 8 days: 

 

Next Saturday and Sunday main storm risk for the south:

 

 

 

Too far out for track and intensity confidence but they coincide with the final push of the Atlantic that opens the floodgates, killing the influence of the Russian block to our east...

 

...I am thankful of that.

 

 

[Mucka]

It certainly looks very stormy from around mid week and we will likely see a quick  succession of storms moving across the country, could be 3 or 4 of these systems to contend with and given the winter we have already with excess wind and rain that is the last thing we wanted to see modelled. 

This will be a historic winter but for all the wrong reasons and suffering from the floods and rain s is likely to continue out to mid month.

 

How about real Winter?

There are tentative signs that the pattern will become more amplified toward mid month and that could herald another pattern change.

At this stage there is too much noise and the signal is too weak to make a stab at how the second half of the month might progress from the output but I would still favour troughing over Scandinavia with some sort of mid Atlantic ridge and height rises toward Greenland, something we have not seen for a long time.

Even if this is the case there is no way to know if we can get enough blocking in the right place for cold and snow so certainly not worth raising hopes at this stage but a little interest now in seeing how this develops.

 

The MetO 30 day forecast is for it to remain unsettled but I'm fairly confident we will see the PV attempt to move back East through the second week of Feb and toward mid month and that will likely give a window of opportunity as the pattern becomes more amplified behind - it just depends how much residual energy is left behind and where and how deep we can get any trough to dig during this phase.

I certainly wouldn't exclude a much more favourable pattern blocking pattern being set up around mid month as with this mornings GFS though I expect that signal will wax and wane over the next few days and I'm certainly not basing my thoughts on a single Op run - this is merely an extension of my thoughts a few days ago of what might develop if the PV moves back East and a possible trough setting up over Scandinavia.

 

So interesting in its own way as far as output is concerned but real experiences on the ground aren't afforded the luxury of appreciating the synoptic from a warm chair gazing into a glowing computer screen. The misery continues for now but keep looking for developments toward mid month.

[Bobby]

ECM continues to take that low around +144 further north than the GFS. Sends a real barrage towards us in fact

 

 

 

In addition to the rain issues there could be stormy weather from these lows, could be quite nasty, good conditions for RACY near the UK in the current setup. The last low looks especially nasty.

Edited February 1, 2014 by Bobby

[SMU]

Whilst I feel that its game set & match for the SE in terms of this winter ( still just about time to change)

 

1 eye can be kept on something like the GFS is showing with a system moving up from france & sliding NE across the SE engaging with polar air on the NW flank-

 

06z shows this as an example

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020106/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

 

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/150_35.gif

 

S

[shaky]

Whilst I feel that its game set & match for the SE in terms of this winter ( still just about time to change)1 eye can be kept on something like the GFS is showing with a system moving up from france & sliding NE across the SE engaging with polar air on the NW flank-06z shows this as an examplehttp://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020106/gfsnh-0-144.png?6http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/150_35.gifS

yes steve thats been showing up on the last 4 gfs runs!!ecm wants to take it further north and gfs keeps sending it further south!!ukmo is somewhere in the middle which wouldn't be too bad and will probably end up being closer to the mark!!is there any ensemble support for it to be that far south? Edited February 1, 2014 by shaky

[Jason M]

If we see ridging into the mid Atlantic as we go through feb, far from being game over for the SE it's probably the best place to be in terms of cold potential. Equally in the event of any northern blocking which is perfectly possible in the 2nd half of feb I would again argue that the SE is a pretty good place to be.

Different views so all good :-)

Clearly in terms of a starting position where we sit today is about as bad as it gets. Forget the next 10 days as there is pretty much zero chance of any notable cold spell. Days 11 to 14 have only a small chance. Days 15-28 are still open though. The vortex is unlikely to simply cruise through the whole of feb unscathed. Whether we end up with a Bartlett style euro high or a pressure build somewhere better is to be decided though. Odds are clearly on the former but too early to discount the latter.

Edited February 1, 2014 by Jason M

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes steve thats been showing up on the last 4 gfs runs!!ecm wants to take it further north and gfs keeps sending it further south!!ukmo is somewhere in the middle which wouldn't be too bad and will probably end up being closer to the mark!!is there any ensemble support for it to be that far south?

 

0perational looks on its own though, most of GEFS take it north, most likely track would be north, no blocking at all to our north, I expect the GFS 0perationals to start tracking it further north

[Iceaxecrampon]

Should get the forum Southern contingent worked up into a froth?

 

 

Ian

[phil nw.]

No change today then in the model outputs with this relentless Atlantic pattern.

As others have said concern on possible additional rain amounts will continue in the coming week with more frontal systems forecasted to move in to the UK.

We can see on the fax's for Monday the next system crossing from the west and then on Weds. a secondary low spinning in off the staionary parent feature near Iceland.Both lows will likely add further problems to the already flood hit areas with strong winds and heavy rain.

 

 

Looking towards the following week there seems little room for optimism with the day 10 mean charts showing the dominance of the Canadian/Greenland vortex.

 

 

It really is getting to stage imo,where far from looking from a cold setup, even a ridging Azores High would be welcome to at least promise some respite from this unending wet pattern.

The Alaskan/Pacific high has done us no favours this Winter by constantly locking that lobe of vortex over this side of the Arctic ensuring any blocking remains out of reach.

[bluearmy]

Should get the forum Southern contingent worked up into a froth?

 

h500slp.png

 

Ian

Gfs snow forecast? See snowballz post 1050!

Fwiw, if it dd track like that, I imagine would be a right mess of slushy wetness away from elevation.

Subtle hints on the extended ens of a pattern change by mid month. may as well wait a few runs to see if any momentum gathers pace.

Edited February 1, 2014 by bluearmy

[Purga]

Gfs snow forecast? See snowballz post from previous page!

Fwiw, if it dd track like that, I imagine would be a right mess of slushy wetness away from elevation.

Subtle hints on the extended ens of a pattern change by mid month. may as well wait a few runs to see if any momentum gathers pace.

Wise to wait BA as you said - we've seen these 'pattern change' hints a few times this season. Sadly things usually get worse!

[Bobby]

Not much support for the GFS op suggestions over recent days of a pressure rise around mid-Feb on the GEFS, NAEFS, GEM ensembles

 

   

at +300hrs

 

ECM/GEFS height anomalies at 8-10 days

 

 

GEFS more keen on the pressure rises than ECM

Edited February 1, 2014 by Bobby

[Man With Beard]

Not much support for the GFS op suggestions over recent days of a pressure rise around mid-Feb on the GEFS, NAEFS, GEM ensembles

 

   

at +300hrs

 

ECM/GEFS height anomalies at 8-10 days

 

 

GEFS more keen on the pressure rises than ECM

Regarding these charts, I note that with each passing day the upper trough is slightly further east, hopefully it represents a conclusive move away from Canada/Greenland and might allow weak northerlies down the line (or at least something drier)

 

Back to the present, I was very interested to read Ian F's post from last night which was positively a ramp for the stormy weather - "almost unprecedented" - not very often someone from the Met Office wil speak like that - really concerning, 3/4 storms in as many days later this week, will one of them be a biggie? GFS 06Z run had this extremely nasty chart at T192 showing 70-90mph wind gusts through all parts of the south, not just on the coast. 

 

[Tim Bland]

Whilst I feel that its game set & match for the SE in terms of this winter ( still just about time to change) 1 eye can be kept on something like the GFS is showing with a system moving up from france & sliding NE across the SE engaging with polar air on the NW flank- 06z shows this as an examplehttp://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020106/gfsnh-0-144.png?6 http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/150_35.gif S

12z looks similar! Some consistency it would seem!http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=144&code=0&mode=2

[shaky]

Well the ukmo doesn't develop that storm system mid week at all!!gfs might be on to something here!!!12z gfs looks similar to the 06z aswell interesting!!!!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday looks horrendous for a vast section of the UK should it verify as per the current GFS predictions. Another round of fun and games into Friday too, with a depression visiting our shores via a path from almost off the coast of West Africa.  Copious amounts of snow possible for a time over the more elevated parts and perhaps not exclusively so, in the case of the second depression.

 

Will be watching this saga unfold over all NWP outputs in the forthcoming days. Tis safe to say, the weather feels angry right now and sadly so will a few folk, should these events unfold as suggested. Far from boring, whichever way you look at it and hopefully a drier signal can make its presence felt come the week after next.

Edited February 1, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Panayiotis]

Well the ukmo doesn't develop that storm system mid week at all!!gfs might be on to something here!!!12z gfs looks similar to the 06z aswell interesting!!!!!!

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