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Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

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Cold paucity aside, I think anyone switching-off from model watching over the next few days - assuming they have broader meteorological interests aside from making snowballs - is missing a trick. I assure you the synoptics continuing to unfold are almost unprecedented, given the longevity and potency of the winter pattern already seen (and endorsed by Jan rainfall stats). These are serious times for parts of the UK weatherwise & rest assured, those considering current charts as 'dross' will reflect (the next time we sit beneath endless leaden skies of a prolonged phase of chilled anticyclonic gloom) how astonishing this period of model output has been - and will be next week.

Indeed. Being a weather geek as I am, this period of over 12 weeks of model watching has been stunning. Not as a cold lover, but the rapid cyclogenesis constantly being predicted correctly by the various NWP and the fairly accurate outcomes! I love "strange" weather, not just cold, and this has been a strange winter! For example, we've been getting sustained snow tonight in parts of Ireland from a westerly regime, and this has nothing to do with the Scandi/Russia block! And from a perspective of my family in the USA, they have been in the freezer to a greater extent than they have ever experienced before. The world is going mad. Meteorologically speaking!!!

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An easterly!

 

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That's more of a UK high than one which will produce any threat of snow (though it does look a sunny high).

 

Interestingly though this is the third consecutive operational run to have a high slap bang over the UK by the 13th..

 

Posted Image

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The model watching has been extremely educational for me this winter.  I know, very frustrating for cold lovers, but none the less an unparalleled period of weather.   Conversely I've learnt a lot about the synoptics we need for prolonged cold from this period. Especially the battle a Scandi high has against the default Atlantic position and exactly where it needs to be for that easterly progression.  The models have been far from boring even if they aren't bringing everyone the weather that they want. 

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Could be the first run to smell the stratospheric coffee here. Better polar profile as heights begin to push towards the pole

 

Posted Image

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Over 100mm of rain progged for the Southwest, Wales & Central Scotland, more locally in elevated areas. Posted Image

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Edited by PerfectStorm

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Good grief....after waiting all winter for Greenland height rises to show on the NWP, we get there. Groundwork laid around 174 hours with better heights towards the Arctic.

 

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From hereon in we may just get to see some stratospheric effects filtering down into the modelling. Fingers crossed.

maybe we shouldn't write off February just yet

EWS

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Maybe dismissed by Exeter but an ever present feature from GFS with rapid down dwelling on the 06z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020100/gfsnh-10-180.png?0

 

Cannot bring myself to big up the cold on the latter stages of GFS this morning........... just yet.

Obviously a glitch on the UKMO 850s it has mistakenly shown 240z Posted Image http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020100/UW144-7.GIF?01-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007 another kick in the teeth for the coldies Posted Image

Edited by winterof79

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Good grief....after waiting all winter for Greenland height rises to show on the NWP, we get there. Groundwork laid around 174 hours with better heights towards the Arctic.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

From hereon in we may just get to see some stratospheric effects filtering down into the modelling. Fingers crossed.

It doesn't really show the whole picture at just 10mb , we need a warming to propagate right thought , top to bottom of the strat. But still very good to see the vortex dieing away in fi , the building blocks are there from early on . Let's hope things move forward and replicate through other models !

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Some interest this morning with the continued trend for the Alaskan Ridge to move west all followed by the three main models. This gives the Canadian Vortex breathing space to fill the space and hints at a slacker flow from the Atlantic in week 2.

 

ECM T240: post-14819-0-37321100-1391238662_thumb.g GEM: post-14819-0-09213000-1391238687_thumb.p GFSpost-14819-0-76328000-1391238701_thumb.p

 

The GFS op runs goes on to develop an Arctic high and that later in the run helps towards a GH:

 

post-14819-0-95112500-1391238780_thumb.p

 

However neither GEM or ECM indicate an Arctic high forming after D10, as weak heights move back to the Alaska region. Their high is blocked from the pole by a PV flow. The GEFS also do not support this synoptic; mean:

 

post-14819-0-79444600-1391238967_thumb.p

 

At the end of FI about 75% are zonal and the rest are a mix, eg:

 

post-14819-0-03207500-1391239117_thumb.p post-14819-0-25717600-1391239131_thumb.p post-14819-0-26972900-1391239146_thumb.p

 

 None are clusters, just background noise at the moment, but hopefully a trend to a change will start to show up. The 2m temps show a larger scatter in FI but nothing too cold or wintry for London yet:

 

post-14819-0-96757300-1391239279_thumb.g

 

Strat warming continues throughout the GFS op.

 

A wet week ahead (at least), and this looks nailed now.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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As some pointed out yesterday evening, we have 'three depressions of the apocalypse' due over the next week or so. These 'secondary' systems coming around the outer part of the main depression centre are not unexpected but the depth of the cold so far East in the Atlantic is unusual and therefore these systems, having been created in the mid Atlantic with warm cores engage the 'extreme' cold of the PFj at a longitude way east of where this would usually be expected to occur. Thus they deepen rapidly in our locale and all three have a similar track modelled. I think Ian mentioned concerns of a repeat of the Xmas storms and that does indeed look possible. if we get lucky,these systems will track further nw as I can't see how they can go further se. worrying times ahead and one wonders if the sudden interest of government in the weather is more to do its this than simply events in the Somerset levels.

the gfs op is a very strange run in low res. it's draining of the vortex from Canada to the sIberian side is the complete reverse of x model agreed evolution through week 2. However, the gefs are an an interesting view as quote a few members decimate the p/v in week 2, scattering chunks across the polar field. odd indeed and the gem ens awaited with interest.

some of them are certainly showing a post SSW type signature ...................... ( but it should be noted that the gfs op, having split the upper strat vortex by day 10 in quite a significant fashion, does rebuild it through the latter stages of week 2, centred nw Siberia and elongated to e canada in line with recent forecasts).

Edited by bluearmy

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My question is, will the erroneous feedback loop of the known idiosyncrasies which lends to over advertising it's precipitations field deliver some fluffy snow flakes to the majority of the uk before winter is over........or, are there extremely elevated levels of danger that we won't have a cold spell before april...?

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Signs of the upper trough moving across the UK by D10. Long way out but could result in a short colder, drier window by mid-Feb

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Cold paucity aside, I think anyone switching-off from model watching over the next few days - assuming they have broader meteorological interests aside from making snowballs - is missing a trick. I assure you the synoptics continuing to unfold are almost unprecedented, given the longevity and potency of the winter pattern already seen (and endorsed by Jan rainfall stats). These are serious times for parts of the UK weatherwise & rest assured, those considering current charts as 'dross' will reflect (the next time we sit beneath endless leaden skies of a prolonged phase of chilled anticyclonic gloom) how astonishing this period of model output has been - and will be next week.

Enthused or not I for one cannot find any enthusiasm for endless gales and rain, give me anti-cyclonic gloom any day and I'll leave the "fascinating" weather for others to enjoy. 

 

On topic now and , well same old, same old, with no end in sight for any sustained cold unless the GFS has spotted a potential pattern change from now to eternity.

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Good morning. Here is today's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday 1st February 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show deep Low pressure close to NW Britain with a strengthening SW or west wind today giving rise to high tides and over-topping at tonight's high tide in the west and SW. The weather itself will be showery with hail and thunder possible at times as well as more prolonged showers too as the day progresses. Tomorrow ill see conditions ease as the Low fills and drifts slowly North allowing winds to decrease and back Southerly late in the day. The next deep depression then comes crashing in on Monday with yet more rain and wind through the day followed by squally showers on Tuesday. It's then all eyes to Wednesday as all models show a potentially damaging storm system crossing the UK from the SW with severe gale or even storm force winds yet again accompanying heavy rain and showers sweeping into the UK from the Atlantic through the day.
 
GFS then shows the end of next week with little overall change as further depressions and fronts are shown to sweep NE across the UK in a very strong SW flow with the only glimmer of light being that temperatures will be close to average or somewhat above at times in the South. The latter end of the run does show a change to drier and brighter weather as High pressure is finally shown to ridge up from the SW with the drying out process allowed to commence later.
 
The GFS Ensembles show a sustained warming over the coming week or two with little overall change to the wet and very windy weather as it continues to be scheduled to afflict our shores. The drying process shown by the operational has only very limited support unfortunately from within the ensemble group.
 
UKMO today closes it's run with Low pressure topping and tailing the UK with at least showers for all and also longer spells of rain too, once more mostly towards the South.
 
GEM shows a further series of depressions and disturbances running NE across the UK in the run up to the end of the run maintaining the thoroughly wet and miserable spell of weather.
 
NAVGEM also continues to show Low pressure out to the NW with rain at times in strong but often rather mild SW winds especially in the South.
 
ECM today is as shocking as ever with incessant intense depressions crashing into the UK from the SW with further very heavy rainfall, especially in the SW with strong winds at times too. Temperatures though on the mild side of average will be totally academic, lost by the strength of the wind.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the likelihood of a maintained locked pattern over the UK still well established for some considerable time with the UK locked in a SW flow around Low pressure to the North of Britain feeding bands of rain and showers North and East across the UK each day.
 
 
The Jet Stream continues to flow East over the Atlantic and either over Southern Britain or to the South with a particularly strong streak later next week and with very little lessening in strength through Week 2 either.
 
In Summary today there remains little optimism from me of a pattern shift anytime soon with the only talking point being the degree of severity and extent that each passing depression over the next few weeks impact on an already desperate situation over the parts of the UK that are afflicted by floods. There are plenty of charts which can only be described as alarmist with ECM deeply depressing if verification occurs with wind strengths adding to the already storm damaged landscape. With all the wind and rain frost, ice and snow will be very limited with little likelihood of much of this away from Scottish mountains. There is indeed some support for things to become rather mild at times later in the period as winds from the Azores reach our shores.

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The Uk needs to brace itself especially for southern Britain between now and Friday, with some really nasty weather to be had with regards to wind and rain. Unfortunately the gfs is pretty good at modelling this scenario, so whats being modelled now cannot be written off. Sure some details will change, but as the charts below show ,we are really in for some disruptive weather including todays....Posted Image

post-6830-0-99515200-1391244885_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-90540300-1391244914_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-00350300-1391244955_thumb.pn

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My question is, will the erroneous feedback loop of the known idiosyncrasies which lends to over advertising it's precipitations field deliver some fluffy snow flakes to the majority of the uk before winter is over........or, are there extremely elevated levels of danger that we won't have a cold spell before april...?

I'm glad you managed to decipher that part of that post Karl and it sounded like mumbo jumbo to me....lol  (no disrespect to Snowballz, just wish she would write in the type of English that doesn't want to make my brain keel over and die...lol)

 

just woke up, had a quick glance at the GFS & later frames on the ECM...hmm....interesting, both hinting that not all is well aboard the zonal express train and that changes might be afoot in a week or so's time?

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I have to say I agree with anyweather, the GFS is usually very good at this kind of setup, in fact I would say that whatever the verification stats say about the models globally the GFS has been very good of late in regards our side of the pond. So a very wet and nasty week coming up but with signs over recent runs that we may then see a pattern change, I wouldn’t at this stage like to say exactly how that will manifest itself, but obviously we all hope it’s the GFS op run that’s nearest the mark.

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After this mornings 0Z GFS run I would recommend everyone follows the SLP mean.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140201/00/prmslReyjavic.png

 

The GFS may have its faults but it can be very good in picking up blocking over Greenland way out in F.I i.e 2009, 2010.

That's true it blew the ECM away in 2010, but i think we will see other solutions offered over the coming days.

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