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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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If your post is just general chat about future prospects without model discussion then you may find it moved to the moans/ramp thread.

Some have already gone that way.

 

Please help to keep this thread relevant to the charts and not just post anything for the sake of it.

 

Thanks again all.

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I'm just curious how anyone could say the models have taken a step back from the predicted cold shown yesterday when yesterday the media forecasts were saying it might turn a little cooler next week and yet today and tonight, the majority of the models plus tv and radio media are saying it's going to become much colder with snow in places...in my book, it's a giant leap forward in favour of an increasingly cold and wintry week ahead. This is just my own opinion, does anyone agree with me?

 

Media suggested it will turn colder yesterday if I recalled? Either way I don't think an awful lot has changed tbh, a 1-2 day easterly flow which is not particularly cold(18Z shows barely the -5hpa uppers making it to the UK but  slight change could change this) after the low eventually slips southwards then we look West for our weather, no idea how the detail will play out but that is the trend I have been seeing. 

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Might turn a little cooler was what I heard yesterday, complete change today with a little cooler replaced by much colder and to be honest, the models today look more wintry than yesterday..hope the upgrades carry on with the 00z. :-)

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Any news on the fax charts... Sorry I can never really understand them and would have no idea what they might be saying in regards to what model(s) the professionals are leaning towards tonight.

JP has done his usual analysis of those in the SE regional thread.

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Well I missed all the runs this afternoon, got home about an hour ago, straight to the models,I have to say, nothing really shocks me from the output today, Part of me expected to see a lot worse, with complete agreement. Interesting read over at least 15 pages, always fun!

 

So to brake that down is quite easy.

 

1)yes things are worse, in terms of really  only the UKMO, however, in the short term the ECM seems better

2) Agreement..... certainly not, we need yet more runs, I thought this would be done and dusted tonight, not so.

 

Finally, nothing "mild" showing in the output, looks like many will see snow this week, the most widespread cold and snowy setup of winter so far, with plenty of potential going forward. 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=305&y=139 (South East England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=190&y=173 (South West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=265&y=1 (Northern England)

 

For the most part, fairly unremarkable uppers on the 18z GEFS, however that is only half the story. There is a consensus amongst the members of a lull in precipitation amounts for a period of a week or so, after which time the spikes return. Additionally, though the uppers are rarely very low, they are still cold enough for snow, especially under low thicknesses. So this is a visually deceptive set and has a lot more potential than is at first obvious from looking at the graphs.

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More posts have been deleted for general sniping or no model discussion.

Please take note of the teams request for on topic model views in here please everyone.

 

This is not a one stop thread for general chat and point scoring.

 

Repeated disregard for this will render some of you unable to post.

 

Ok now please back to Model discussions only,

Thanks.

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Pub run ensembles full of fun, about time we had some output to wonder over in awe. Aside from Jason posting up the Siberian express on P14, P20 is an absolute bomb, give this a roll through.. don't think there would be too many complaints from those of a cold persuasion about a 1065mb Greenland high.. !

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=20&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

Posted Imagegensnh-20-1-276.png

These ensembles seem to sit within the scope of Tamara and Chio's thoughts to be fair. Also not unexpected with all that cold air looking to go walkabout as the vortex dies. No guarantees of course but I think we have a shot in a week or so time.

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A bit of topic here but with the Euro4 model now taking over the NAE is this a model used by the met office? 

 

I got the impression the NAE was at some point but the Euro4 is an updated version.

 

However when watching the latest BBC weather forecast the graphics weren't even the same as the Euro4 model. 

 
post-8968-0-96975400-1390694831_thumb.pn post-8968-0-22951800-1390694838_thumb.gi 
Edited by Cheese Rice
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A bit of topic here but with the Euro4 model now taking over the NAE is this a model used by the met office? 

 

I got the impression the NAE was at some point but the Euro4 is an updated version.

 

However when watching the latest BBC weather forecast the graphics weren't even the same as the Euro4 model. 

 

 

UKMO modify the raw output i believe. Just like they used to do with NAE. I remember Ian saying in here about modified-NAE and raw-NAE. So probably the raw Euro4 output has been modified.

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Watch the period around the 1st.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

These two are screaming slider, if you can get the angle of attack as the GFS but have the sort of heights the ECM has then you've got a full house.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Watch the period around the 1st.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

These two are screaming slider, if you can get the angle of attack as the GFS but have the sort of heights the ECM has then you've got a full house.

 

What's a full house this year? A day of transient wet snow? I have trip twos.

 

I'll grant you that the heights building west into Greenland give some cause for optimism on those charts if we fast forward by a week but we need sustained LP around Italy which is seeming impossible atm.

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These ensembles seem to sit within the scope of Tamara and Chio's thoughts to be fair. Also not unexpected with all that cold air looking to go walkabout as the vortex dies. No guarantees of course but I think we have a shot in a week or so time.

It all means nothing if the cold air can't be held in place favourably. Cold air distributed southwards as per the SSW type theories certainly adds fire to the fuel. Trouble is, there is no (directional)  mechanism in those displacement theories that hold any water. It's a crapshoot.

Edited by kumquat
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Surprising UKMO at 120 - maintains cold continental flow.

 

Posted Image

 

Could well break at 144 but a straw in the wind perhaps.

 

Setting up a slider perfectly -

 

those uppers into England- circa -08c.

 

S

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