Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[bluearmy]

All the models are clueless at the moment. Big changes coming due tostrat warming.The models are slowly catching on.

You keep on saying this cc but what you are really saying is that the models are wrong at initialisation or that they are not modelling any warming effectively. once you press the button, you can't interfere with the dynamics of the model. If you believe the warming that they show then you must respect what they do subsequently with it down in the trop. If you are referring to post day 15 output then tts fine but we can't see that at he moment.

[draztik]

The updated EC32 keeps to the same path; lower heights to our NW from day 0-32, truly incredible. There were signs of heights ridging up from the S on the last update during latter end of Feb, but now the troughing seems to be more pronounced, and lingers into March. Temperatures look to stay around average for the UK (tho the SE looks to be slightly above), with a more positive anomaly in the continent.

[J10]

What would the impact of the above charts have on many of the ski resorts in Europe such as south of France and Swiss border?? Anyone help with what the feb pattern is shaping up for this area??Thanks in advance

 

If it happened it really wouldn't help snow cover, which after a slow start isn't that bad at all.

 

Check the Ski update for latest conditions over the next few days.

[Purga]

 Well with Ensembles like that we are teetering on Winter is over posts ( not that it ever started)

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

S

Yep Winter is Over

 

[summer blizzard]

Heatwave ahoy..  For Sicily and Tunisia.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well, let's hope we have a pattern change.......there is some serious rainfall totals progged. Give me a Euro HP anytime now, never mind a bitter easterly.  It is looking very problematic...I'm sure there is MetO concern going on

 

BFTP

[Richie V]

See post #691...

Nothing has changed.

Are the lp's getting deep enough for you yet?

[Timmytour]

just looked at GFS and although it seems to be a rinse and repeat pattern of the relentless rain we've had all winter, right at the end of its run i can see the prospects of cold being delivered from the North East.



If I worked for the Express I'd be certain enough to headline that London will get its first snow of the winter on the 18th Feb!

[Duane S.]

A desperate trawl through the 00z suite looking for a sign of change to cold has proven fruitless again this morning. Straws to grasp further up in the atmosphere still but it does seem everything has and continues to contrive against us this 'winter'.

 

However in terms of 'interesting' weather, it certainly looks like we are not going to be short changed on that account in the coming 10 days. The models are throwing up some really disturbed charts going into and through the weekend after next, some strange and crazy looking charts mixed in, with shortwaves being formed all over the place. I get the impression something particularly nasty is brewing for that period. Thereafter there is the unmistakable potential for a pressure rise in the south, which likely would put pay to any deep cold spell for February and then i suppose it would be eyes down for changes going into March.

 

Not writing off change to proper February cold yet but we do need to see a massive swing in the tropospheric chart output pretty soon.

[Weather-history]

Look at this chart, looks like a big bladder under those twin lows to discharge its content over the British Isles. Gives a whole new meaning to peeing it down.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

[EML Network]

Look at this chart, looks like a big bladder under those twin lows to discharge its content over the British Isles. Gives a whole new meaning to peeing it down.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

HA HA HA HA HA

 

That make me chuckle

[Liam J]

Some very disturbed charts indeed from the 00z outputs, crazy looking and they've really stepped up a gear for a full on assault in our part of the world. Rinse and repeat - gales/severe gales and copious amounts of rain. 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Liam J

[IDO]

The GFS 12z just shows what a terrible NH profile there is for the UK at the moment. Up to D8 we have the relentless flow of the Siberian PV to Canada reinforcing the latter, the excruciating slow progress east of the Russian High and the UK at the end of the zonal train:

 

 

That Russian High is a spoiler and is determined to waste 7/10 days of our winter. Finally by D9 the Atlantic eases through:

 

 

We then get a slack flow allowing heights to build to our SE. The slacker Atlantic flow looks like a result of the Pacific Ridging migrating towards Siberia, allowing the Canadian PV more space towards Alaska:

 

 

By D16 those heights to our SE reinforce the Russian High and we are back to square one:

 

Thats a terrible profile as a starting point for Feb 16th.

 

This is just one possible synoptic out of several, however all to date bring no cold to the UK. It does suggest that the winter pattern has no potential for the UK this year and we are therefore reliant on a strat event. The overnight EC32 agrees with this with no cold just more Atlantic domination (source).

 

The GEFS have no cold on any member at D16, not even close. The mean is dominated by a regrouped Canadian PV with the UK under constant attack from the Atlantic:

 

 

The London ens offer rain and mild/average temps right out to the end of FI: 

 

ECM and GEM also offer the same synoptics at D10:

 

 

 

Several days since I wrote off February, I see no signs that this should be reappraised.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Look at this chart, looks like a big bladder under those twin lows to discharge its content over the British Isles. Gives a whole new meaning to peeing it down.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

That's the best terminology I have heard lol !Forget all your Shannon Entropy etc words....It's, The Bladder Low.

[egret]

That's the best terminology I have heard lol !Forget all your Shannon Entropy etc words....It's, The Bladder Low.

And hence the saying getting bladdered by the pub run.

[Frosty.]

The models are quackers this morning but the ducks are loving it..if this carries on we will all grow webbed feet!!. Hold onto your hat, your house and anything else not tied down, and keep a brolly handy but it will probably blow inside out. This winter is officially a joke but we could have a colder than average march if shannon entroppp... whatever :-)

[Timmytour]

Look at this chart, looks like a big bladder under those twin lows to discharge its content over the British Isles. Gives a whole new meaning to peeing it down.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

:)I was looking at the runs and seeing faces.....thinking it gave meaning to the eyes of the storms.I imagine many are looking at the run and thinking faeces!

[Frosty.]

:)I was looking at the runs and seeing faces.....thinking it gave meaning to the eyes of the storms.I imagine many are looking at the run and thinking faeces!

Best way I can describe the 00z is meh whatever and Pffffffft

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z

 

Saturday 1/2/2014

 

Snow for Ireland - possible 6hr event.

 

 

 

Mid afternoon tight iso through the SW and Somerset - as if they haven't had enough.

 

 

Ian

 

 

 

 

 

[Troubleatmill]

Well looking ahead for a sign of a pattern change, it looks like the stand off may finally be broken as we head into November 2014, sign that the high east low west may be running out of steam, fingers crossed on that one

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the morning outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 31st 2014.

 

All models show a deep Low pressure area steaming in from the West today and settling near NW Britain pushing troughs across the UK through the day with spells of heavy rain followed by wintry showers tonight and strengthening SW winds. Tomorrow will become very windy with severe gales in the South and West with the real risk of another storm surge giving rise to coastal flooding issues in these areas. Inland sunshine and showers will be present with hail and thunder between brighter intervals. This showery theme extends into Sunday as the Low only slowly moves away North from Scotland so winds should be less strong. 

 

GFS then shows the rest of it's run with very changeable weather with further spells of rain and strong winds at times with a drier anticyclonic period for parts of the UK for a time later before the unsettled regime returns.

 

The GFS Ensembles today are concerning again today as they indicate no relief from the very wet pattern of this winter so far with spells of rain predominant throughout the period. The only differing trend from the current situation is the raising of temperatures into the mild category as we pass deeper into next week and through Week 2.

 

UKMO today closes it's run with next Thursday showing the whole of the North Atlantic and the British Isles being covered in Low pressure in one shape or form with further spells of rain and showers but with slack winds it looks as though night's could be quite cold and frosty should skies clear between the rain and showers.

 

GEM also shows very unsettled weather in SW winds as Low pressure areas continue to bring spells of rain and showers throughout the next 10 days with temperatures recovering towards near average.

 

NAVGEM also shows very unsettled weather with low pressure close to Northern Britain with wet and windy conditions persisting over the UK with strong winds at times and average temperatures.

 

ECM today is quite simply appalling for SW Britain who look like bearing the brunt of repeated attacks of Low pressure areas and fronts moving in off the Atlantic, each bringing it's own version of heavy rain and potentially strong winds. Temperatures may rise a little above average at times later in the period.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show no change to the general synoptic setup of Low pressure to the North and NW with SW winds carrying rain and strong winds across all areas of the UK with the wettest weather still likely to be towards the South and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to cross the Atlantic just to the South of the UK and only slowly drifting North to be over the UK later.

 

In Summary the weather pattern remains a very serious one with regard to pending amounts of rainfall that can be expected if any of the current model projections verify. With little notable change to the pattern away from Low pressure Atlantic based weather continuing for the foreseeable future we can only expect further newsworthy events and disruption making media headlines over the next few weeks. On a minute meaningful scale temperatures will probably rise somewhat later in the run with little or no prospect of cold weather anytime soon.

[Summer Sun]

Finally some light at the end of a very long tunnel for the south west longer term

 

From the 31st to 8th the west and south west sees more unwelcome heavy rain but from the 9th to 16th it does start and ease back with around 20mm for the week

 

[carinthian]

Even ardent snow and cold fans main concerns will now be to look for a dryer scenario from the latest models. Obviously, the latest batch hold out little hope. Maybe the UKMO gives a sign for a less unsettled spell coming later, especially for more Eastern parts. Otherwise, bog Britain looks like becoming the lost Isles of Atlantis.

 C

[bluearmy]

the ukmo 00z run is not far from a  snowy run days 4 and 5. again, the lack of cold across the channel and any embedded cold over here will mean its cold and wet rather than white but i suspect over the higher ground, there could be some decent cover for a time.

[shaky]

the ukmo 00z run is not far from a  snowy run days 4 and 5. again, the lack of cold across the channel and any embedded cold over here will mean its cold and wet rather than white but i suspect over the higher ground, there could be some decent cover for a time.

thats what I was thinking aswell mate!!ecmwf shows the same thing!!could be some surprises next week!!