Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Gibby]

Good evening everyone. Here is this evening's account of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday January 30th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models continue to show a very unsettled period developing once more starting tomorrow. A deepening depression is moving quickly over the Atlantic pushing active troughs NE across the UK with heavy rain and hill snow in places through tomorrow. Following on behind will be very strong and gusty SW winds with flooding issues around the coasts of SW England and Wales over the weekend with very high tides. In addition heavy showers will batter Southern and Western areas, some heavy with hail and thunder in places. Sunday will see the Low drift slowly North with winds easing somewhat though maintaining a showery theme while late in the day winds backing towards the South in the SW of the UK will herald the arrival of yet another active rain bearing Low pressure system to start next week.

 

GFS then shows next week with Low pressure over the North of the UK with strong WSW winds and periods of rain at times interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Temperatures will be close to or a little above average for most. For those hoping that the lower resolution half of the run shows any changes will remain very disappointed as the incessant barrage of Low pressure troughs in association with Low pressure to the North continues right out to the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles shows an especially wet period through next week with very average temperatures. Through Week 2 while further unwelcome rainfall is shown uppers will warm in a SW airflow and the heaviest rainfall may transfer more towards the North and West rather than the South and West of Week 1.

 

UKMO shows an active Low pressure system over Scotland with strong West or SW winds continuing to drive showers and longer spells of rain across all areas at times.

 

GEM shows little difference to the rest of the output with just a slow trend later for milder SW winds in response to raising pressure over SE Europe giving longer drier periods between rain bands over the South and East in 10 days time.

 

NAVGEM shows a broad and unstable SW flow later next week as deep Low pressure remains to the NW with rain and showers off and on for all in average temperatures.

 

ECM tonight also shows a depressing set of charts tonight as throughout next week it too indicates further active areas of Low pressure areas to the North and NW sweeping rain bearing troughs East across the UK with showery spells in between throughout the period.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight with the ensemble pack stating the likelihoods of deep Low pressure to the NW of the UK in 9 and 10 days time is very high and with a resultant strong SW flow across all areas rain at times will be the ultimate weather pattern in temperatures well up to average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

The Jet Stream is shown to remain very strong over the next two weeks continuing to steer depressions close in to the UK for the next week to 10 days with just a slight trend to shift the flow somewhat further North late in the run.

 

In Summary I have nothing new to report tonight that hasn't been said on numerous runs this Winter as put quite simply the pattern that has afflicted the UK for the majority of this Winter re-establishes over the next few days and carries on throughout the output periods tonight. Any changes that are shown are minimal and will change only rain distribution over the UK late in the period at the same time as bringing the chance of above average temperatures accompanying the rain. There is little or no chance of any cold weather as the Jet stream remains very strong with the main worrying fact for those afflicted by floods there seems few straws to grasp.

[J10]

A very mild outlook though with ECM T+240, very yellow across mainland Europe.

 

 

Cannot remember seeing pretty much the whole of mainland Europe under mild temps at this time of year.

[Newberryone]

Think you've missed a lot! low pressure to the NW, high pressure over the Med and Europe... Albeit the lows are taking a track more or less over us. but realistically, I think we will see a bartlett progress through Mid February.

Inevitably the atmosphere will become less unstable but as things stand I must say, no matter what the signals, that's one mighty brave prediction for mid Feb.

Should it verify, well done!

[bobbydog]

Think you've missed a lot! low pressure to the NW, high pressure over the Med and Europe... Albeit the lows are taking a track more or less over us. but realistically, I think we will see a bartlett progress through Mid February.

 

just to clear this one up-

 

"A 'Bartlett' High (also referred to as a 'Eurotrash' High) is a very persistent area of high pressure situated over Europe during the winter months - for Britain this means weeks or months of very mild though often wet and windy weather under a predominantly southwesterly airflow. The worst possible conditions for anyone wanting cold and snow. A typical 'Bartlett Winter' was '88/'89 - one of the mildest winters on record."

 

 

 

"The term is sometimes wrongly used to refer to any short lived period of high pressure over Europe"

 

Quotes thanks to 'Essan' (NW member)

[WINTRY WALES]

A very mild outlook though with ECM T+240, very yellow across mainland Europe.Cannot remember seeing pretty much the whole of mainland Europe under mild temps at this time of year.

What would the impact of the above charts have on many of the ski resorts in Europe such as south of France and Swiss border?? Anyone help with what the feb pattern is shaping up for this area??Thanks in advance Edited January 30, 2014 by WINTRY WALES

[Summer Sun]

Promising signs from CFS again with pressure building towards mid month

 

 

Although it wouldn't be overly mild 5 or 6 days with no or very little rain would be very welcome for the flood hit south west in particular somerset 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

just to clear this one up-

 

"A 'Bartlett' High (also referred to as a 'Eurotrash' High) is a very persistent area of high pressure situated over Europe during the winter months - for Britain this means weeks or months of very mild though often wet and windy weather under a predominantly southwesterly airflow. The worst possible conditions for anyone wanting cold and snow. A typical 'Bartlett Winter' was '88/'89 - one of the mildest winters on record."

 

 

 

"The term is sometimes wrongly used to refer to any short lived period of high pressure over Europe"

 

Quotes thanks to 'Essan' (NW member)

 

dosent look too bad that? looks dry in the south, I may have quite liked winter 88/89, could do with those charts soon, but will not happen

 

CFS is a useless model Gavin D sadly

Edited January 30, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Inevitably the atmosphere will become less unstable but as things stand I must say, no matter what the signals, that's one mighty brave prediction for mid Feb.

Should it verify, well done!

More chance of that verifying this winter now given pressure being so low to the N and NW. I think anybody's guess is as good as the models at long range.

[SMU]

 Well with Ensembles like that we are teetering on Winter is over posts ( not that it ever started)

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

S

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think winter will come in march, it's not even february yet but it's already been written off as a damp squib so roll on march

It probably will. Thing is, we dont get that feel good factor in March, days lengthening, Spring Equinox etc, it just doesn't feel right. I'd rather be seeing the beginning of the convective season getting underway, not that it already hasn't! 

Looking at the ensembles and anything I can find, unfortunately no noteworthy cold is predicted time really is ticking now, February is our last straw really.

[Jonathan Lang]

Even though the output may not look too good currently, we could have some somewhat cold air wrapping around low pressure systems such as what the GFS shows at 111 hrs. This may cause an outside chance of some snow in some areas next week. Even thought the op may be on the colder side of the ensembles, it certainly isn't an outlier!

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by Jonathan Lang

[Summer Sun]

Looks like Gibby is too busy tonight so here is his latest summary

 

Good evening everyone. Here is this evening's account of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday January 30th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models continue to show a very unsettled period developing once more starting tomorrow. A deepening depression is moving quickly over the Atlantic pushing active troughs NE across the UK with heavy rain and hill snow in places through tomorrow. Following on behind will be very strong and gusty SW winds with flooding issues around the coasts of SW England and Wales over the weekend with very high tides. In addition heavy showers will batter Southern and Western areas, some heavy with hail and thunder in places. Sunday will see the Low drift slowly North with winds easing somewhat though maintaining a showery theme while late in the day winds backing towards the South in the SW of the UK will herald the arrival of yet another active rain bearing Low pressure system to start next week.

 

GFS then shows next week with Low pressure over the North of the UK with strong WSW winds and periods of rain at times interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Temperatures will be close to or a little above average for most. For those hoping that the lower resolution half of the run shows any changes will remain very disappointed as the incessant barrage of Low pressure troughs in association with Low pressure to the North continues right out to the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles shows an especially wet period through next week with very average temperatures. Through Week 2 while further unwelcome rainfall is shown uppers will warm in a SW airflow and the heaviest rainfall may transfer more towards the North and West rather than the South and West of Week 1.

 

UKMO shows an active Low pressure system over Scotland with strong West or SW winds continuing to drive showers and longer spells of rain across all areas at times.

 

GEM shows little difference to the rest of the output with just a slow trend later for milder SW winds in response to raising pressure over SE Europe giving longer drier periods between rain bands over the South and East in 10 days time.

 

NAVGEM shows a broad and unstable SW flow later next week as deep Low pressure remains to the NW with rain and showers off and on for all in average temperatures.

 

ECM tonight also shows a depressing set of charts tonight as throughout next week it too indicates further active areas of Low pressure areas to the North and NW sweeping rain bearing troughs East across the UK with showery spells in between throughout the period.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight with the ensemble pack stating the likelihoods of deep Low pressure to the NW of the UK in 9 and 10 days time is very high and with a resultant strong SW flow across all areas rain at times will be the ultimate weather pattern in temperatures well up to average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream is shown to remain very strong over the next two weeks continuing to steer depressions close in to the UK for the next week to 10 days with just a slight trend to shift the flow somewhat further North late in the run.

In Summary I have nothing new to report tonight that hasn't been said on numerous runs this Winter as put quite simply the pattern that has afflicted the UK for the majority of this Winter re-establishes over the next few days and carries on throughout the output periods tonight. Any changes that are shown are minimal and will change only rain distribution over the UK late in the period at the same time as bringing the chance of above average temperatures accompanying the rain. There is little or no chance of any cold weather as the Jet stream remains very strong with the main worrying fact for those afflicted by floods there seems few straws to grasp.

[fergieweather]

 

Yes Interesting that of all the places that could actually see some Snow falling is SW England, Mind you it could Snow for a week and not settle here, due to all the flooding

 

Edit: More worrying tomorrow's storm is combing with 13m Tides here in Weston, That really is a bad situation to be in at the moment , especially in Somerset.

 

Weston-Super-Mare

High Tide 07:50 (13.00m)

 

 

The E4 signal looks overdone (re wintry ppn early Sat in SW) thinks Chief Forecaster and has been reduced in modified fields. Nonetheless, WBFL down to 400m for a while, so even toned-down signal remains. However, ice aside, the main event is obviously the rain (Fri) and tighter gradients / tidal impacts (Sat). Thereafter, similar issues again early-mid next week. With no hint of anything colder (in strict sense) thereafter in ensembles and firm expectation for scandi high to be blown-away by cyclonicity extending in from west, key problem is milder flow more prominent into Feb = warm sectors rather than occluded ones = more moisture = broader rain bands = more flood risk ongoing. All bothersome albeit perhaps a transition to some lengthier dry phases in S eventually. Here's hoping.

[Mair Snaw]

Looks like Gibby is too busy tonight so here is his latest summary

 

Good evening everyone. Here is this evening's account of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday January 30th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models continue to show a very unsettled period developing once more starting tomorrow. A deepening depression is moving quickly over the Atlantic pushing active troughs NE across the UK with heavy rain and hill snow in places through tomorrow. Following on behind will be very strong and gusty SW winds with flooding issues around the coasts of SW England and Wales over the weekend with very high tides. In addition heavy showers will batter Southern and Western areas, some heavy with hail and thunder in places. Sunday will see the Low drift slowly North with winds easing somewhat though maintaining a showery theme while late in the day winds backing towards the South in the SW of the UK will herald the arrival of yet another active rain bearing Low pressure system to start next week.

 

GFS then shows next week with Low pressure over the North of the UK with strong WSW winds and periods of rain at times interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Temperatures will be close to or a little above average for most. For those hoping that the lower resolution half of the run shows any changes will remain very disappointed as the incessant barrage of Low pressure troughs in association with Low pressure to the North continues right out to the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles shows an especially wet period through next week with very average temperatures. Through Week 2 while further unwelcome rainfall is shown uppers will warm in a SW airflow and the heaviest rainfall may transfer more towards the North and West rather than the South and West of Week 1.

 

UKMO shows an active Low pressure system over Scotland with strong West or SW winds continuing to drive showers and longer spells of rain across all areas at times.

 

GEM shows little difference to the rest of the output with just a slow trend later for milder SW winds in response to raising pressure over SE Europe giving longer drier periods between rain bands over the South and East in 10 days time.

 

NAVGEM shows a broad and unstable SW flow later next week as deep Low pressure remains to the NW with rain and showers off and on for all in average temperatures.

 

ECM tonight also shows a depressing set of charts tonight as throughout next week it too indicates further active areas of Low pressure areas to the North and NW sweeping rain bearing troughs East across the UK with showery spells in between throughout the period.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight with the ensemble pack stating the likelihoods of deep Low pressure to the NW of the UK in 9 and 10 days time is very high and with a resultant strong SW flow across all areas rain at times will be the ultimate weather pattern in temperatures well up to average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream is shown to remain very strong over the next two weeks continuing to steer depressions close in to the UK for the next week to 10 days with just a slight trend to shift the flow somewhat further North late in the run.

In Summary I have nothing new to report tonight that hasn't been said on numerous runs this Winter as put quite simply the pattern that has afflicted the UK for the majority of this Winter re-establishes over the next few days and carries on throughout the output periods tonight. Any changes that are shown are minimal and will change only rain distribution over the UK late in the period at the same time as bringing the chance of above average temperatures accompanying the rain. There is little or no chance of any cold weather as the Jet stream remains very strong with the main worrying fact for those afflicted by floods there seems few straws to grasp.

Gibby already posted on the very same page..lol..

[MrSunshine]

Gibby already posted on the very same page..lol..

 

He just wanted to make sure nobody missed it! lol

[Iceni]

 Well with Ensembles like that we are teetering on Winter is over posts ( not that it ever started)

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

S

 

Don't give up hope Steve!

 

I'm sure we've got a cold, wet and even frosty March April May and even the first two weeks of June to look forward to. We'll get some stonking charts at the end of April after another mild or even hot spell in March.

 

I can't wait for all the flowers on my apple trees to come out with no bees about and the Magnolias to turn brown like they did in 2012.

 

Chin up.

Edited January 30, 2014 by Iceni

[Weather Boy]

The E4 signal looks overdone (re wintry ppn early Sat in SW) thinks Chief Forecaster and has been reduced in modified fields. Nonetheless, WBFL down to 400m for a while, so even toned-down signal remains. However, ice aside, the main event is obviously the rain (Fri) and tighter gradients / tidal impacts (Sat). Thereafter, similar issues again early-mid next week. With no hint of anything colder (in strict sense) thereafter in ensembles and firm expectation for scandi high to be blown-away by cyclonicity extending in from west, key problem is milder flow more prominent into Feb = warm sectors rather than occluded ones = more moisture = broader rain bands = more flood risk ongoing. All bothersome albeit perhaps a transition to some lengthier dry phases in S eventually. Here's hoping.

 

Hi Ian

 

Hoping that this is loosely connected to the models, I am amazed (and impressed) that the middle of last week Meto so confidently and correctly (well, OK, it hasn't happened yet, but I think we can assume) called for the Atlantic to advance solidly on Friday and blow the "cold" * away.

 

I am intrigued TBH as to how they were so confident.  My reading of the models at that time was that there was real doubt about the strength of the block and indeed the intensity of the "cold" this week.  Was it MOGREPS or some other data that we aren't privy to that made you all confident enough to make that call at such an early stage.  We could, I thought (ie possible) for us to have a real cold spell but METO seemed absolutely confident of no.  Even the timing was right!

 

Trying to learn about forecasting rather than models at this point.  Thank you.

 

*I don't call a 5.2C max at my location today and rain all day real cold! hence the quote marks.

 

P.S - hope this post is not to kiss ass of meto!

[damianslaw]

Whilst I don't often quote long range forecasts, JMA should raise a few eyebrows with its suggestion of Greenland heights latter part of February...

 

Back to the here and now, yes it will stay very unsettled with low pressure parking its way to our NW where it has been for 2 months solid now. It is a poor outlook for anyone wanting dry weather. Temperature wise - preety average it has to be said, this is far from a very mild set up.

 

Will things ever change? yes they will, when who knows, but there continue to be signals of a shift in the pattern occurring as we enter the second half of February.

 

Remarkable consistency between the main models today.

 

If we get a hosepipe ban and drought orders this summer - some serious questions will be asked!!!!!

[Weather Boy]

Whilst I don't often quote long range forecasts, JMA should raise a few eyebrows with its suggestion of Greenland heights latter part of February...

 

Back to the here and now, yes it will stay very unsettled with low pressure parking its way to our NW where it has been for 2 months solid now. It is a poor outlook for anyone wanting dry weather. Temperature wise - preety average it has to be said, this is far from a very mild set up.

 

Will things ever change? yes they will, when who knows, but there continue to be signals of a shift in the pattern occurring as we enter the second half of February.

 

Remarkable consistency between the main models today.

 

If we get a hosepipe ban and drought orders this summer - some serious questions will be asked!!!!!

 

Hmmm, yes, good post, but is this is the same JMA which apparently has huge kudos at Meto, but nevertheless called for a sustained and brutal easterly from now onwards.

 

Not sure I'll be polishing my sledge based on that....but who knows?

[The Northern Ramper]

Looks like Gibby is too busy tonight so here is his latest summary Good evening everyone. Here is this evening's account of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday January 30th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue to show a very unsettled period developing once more starting tomorrow. A deepening depression is moving quickly over the Atlantic pushing active troughs NE across the UK with heavy rain and hill snow in places through tomorrow. Following on behind will be very strong and gusty SW winds with flooding issues around the coasts of SW England and Wales over the weekend with very high tides. In addition heavy showers will batter Southern and Western areas, some heavy with hail and thunder in places. Sunday will see the Low drift slowly North with winds easing somewhat though maintaining a showery theme while late in the day winds backing towards the South in the SW of the UK will herald the arrival of yet another active rain bearing Low pressure system to start next week. GFS then shows next week with Low pressure over the North of the UK with strong WSW winds and periods of rain at times interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Temperatures will be close to or a little above average for most. For those hoping that the lower resolution half of the run shows any changes will remain very disappointed as the incessant barrage of Low pressure troughs in association with Low pressure to the North continues right out to the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles shows an especially wet period through next week with very average temperatures. Through Week 2 while further unwelcome rainfall is shown uppers will warm in a SW airflow and the heaviest rainfall may transfer more towards the North and West rather than the South and West of Week 1. UKMO shows an active Low pressure system over Scotland with strong West or SW winds continuing to drive showers and longer spells of rain across all areas at times. GEM shows little difference to the rest of the output with just a slow trend later for milder SW winds in response to raising pressure over SE Europe giving longer drier periods between rain bands over the South and East in 10 days time. NAVGEM shows a broad and unstable SW flow later next week as deep Low pressure remains to the NW with rain and showers off and on for all in average temperatures. ECM tonight also shows a depressing set of charts tonight as throughout next week it too indicates further active areas of Low pressure areas to the North and NW sweeping rain bearing troughs East across the UK with showery spells in between throughout the period. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight with the ensemble pack stating the likelihoods of deep Low pressure to the NW of the UK in 9 and 10 days time is very high and with a resultant strong SW flow across all areas rain at times will be the ultimate weather pattern in temperatures well up to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream is shown to remain very strong over the next two weeks continuing to steer depressions close in to the UK for the next week to 10 days with just a slight trend to shift the flow somewhat further North late in the run.In Summary I have nothing new to report tonight that hasn't been said on numerous runs this Winter as put quite simply the pattern that has afflicted the UK for the majority of this Winter re-establishes over the next few days and carries on throughout the output periods tonight. Any changes that are shown are minimal and will change only rain distribution over the UK late in the period at the same time as bringing the chance of above average temperatures accompanying the rain. There is little or no chance of any cold weather as the Jet stream remains very strong with the main worrying fact for those afflicted by floods there seems few straws to grasp.

He posted it already and quite frankly this posting of his reports when you think he might have missed is incredibly sad and perhaps a little creepy :s

[Frosty.]

The models are just adding insult to injury following the epic fail undercut which if it had happened, would have completely changed our rubbish pattern for real winter but it looks like the weather is just going to pile on the misery until this lame winter is almost over.

[The Northern Ramper]

We haven't had a winter to be fair, from Autumn into Spring will be my guess.

This has to be a record winter for the least Frosts too.

[Robbie Garrett]

Actually I take a look at the GFS and think, hmmm maybe it's a long route but there might be some changes afoot. Look at the vortex over Canada.

 

 

 

Then look at it next Wednesday. 144 hours. That's a pattern change at H500hPA!

 

 

Look at the Azores positioning, it's ridged westerly into the Atlantic.  so it's highly unlikely to fill eastwards with trough movement east? One way it might go is northwards depending on any troughing left over Canada pushing everything northwards from the south. i.e warm air Advection from the Azores.  Just my thoughts, nothing professional but I am wondering if the strat takes hold, the Azores is in a very good position to build blocking, with a vortex over Russia pumping towards us..

[cooling climate]

All the models are clueless at the moment. Big changes coming due to

strat warming.The models are slowly catching on.

[draztik]

All the models are clueless at the moment. Big changes coming due tostrat warming.The models are slowly catching on.

 

Yeah. GFS 18z smells the coffee, and wallops us with 8 successive lows.