Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[cooling climate]

You know you are having a very mild winter when the beeb are

saying today will be cold with highs of 7c lol.I wonder what

they would call maximum of 0c in a winter such as this.

Still very optimistic of strat warming and wave 2 amplification

to turn things around.What was it I said ah yes by Sunday we will

all be happy bunnies looking at what the charts are showing us.

Edited January 29, 2014 by cooling climate

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The endless rain train just keeps clagging along! Some potentially nasty storms cropping up too, with howling winds along with driving rain. Looking absolutely abysmal, especially for those who are still suffering from flooding.

[cooling climate]

Out in FI I know but the 06z is starting to get the idea.

[Paul]

I was just making the point that some of us, including me, have been duped again by strong suggestions of a pattern change that will again come to naught, the first was the ecm back in late nov, this time it's all the models but especially the ukmo. The gfs 00z op run is plunging us back into the stormy pattern which has dominated winter so far and it's realistic....and as steve murr said yesterday, this winter is dire so far, cold fans will agree with him 100 %.

 

That's not really related to what you posted originally though - you simply said that because the UKMO model had been wrong previously it wasn't likely to be right, which is what I responded to. Regardless of how this winter has gone or anything else, the fact is that all models get it wrong at times and discounting them purely on that basis is never going to work. 

[Frosty.]

I have given my all this winter, heart and soul into the quest for a cold spell and I will keep looking, yes I get carried away sometimes because of my love of wintry model charts in winter, it's been hard to stomach the last 8 weeks. The far north east gets a wintry snap in the next day or so with sub 528 dam encroaching from the east but most of us will miss it. There is good agreement for a return of very disturbed weather from friday onwards with more heavy rain and damaging winds, continuing next week and possibly beyond.

[Rustynailer]

Four good storms on the latest GFS output, all very exciting for Winter storm lovers.

I think these storms will make the news.

GFS has made my day. I love it when the weather goes off on one...

Shame about the cold not arriving in a big way, but we can't expect the same every year or it would get boring IMO 

The GFES ensembles are showing a gradual warming, so its more energy for rain and wind I presume.

[gottolovethisweather]

Four good storms on the latest GFS output, all very exciting for Winter storm lovers.

I think these storms will make the news.

GFS has made my day. I love it when the weather goes off on one...

Shame about the cold not arriving in a big way, but we can't expect the same every year or it would get boring IMO 

The GFES ensembles are showing a gradual warming, so its more energy for rain and wind I presume.

 

BTW I've liked your post because of the sound analysis you present, not because of its sentiments and a note to all, its actually model related, well done you.

Nonetheless as I actually foresee a potential change in type into the second week of February, it is at that timescale at which I will be watching like a hawk, to see which way the UK weather goes, warmer or colder, dry or wet etc.? 

 

BACK TO MODEL DISCUSSION please, even if they are uninspiring for a whole lot of us, there is always something to discuss with our weather, I'd rather that approach than to see the thread littered with little appropriate discussion.

Edited January 29, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Gray-Wolf]

I get the feeling we have to look beyond the U.S. jet Trough for what is the root cause of this winters conditions. The High pressure dug in across the north Pacific sets up the U.S. deep jet troughing which give the cold to play with the Atlantic warmth and bring the jet up to speed in time for it to drench us. Until that High shifts the only change we can hope for is the seasonal northward drift of the jet.........

 

If that is right then 4 more weeks of Atlantic carp and on to spring we go!

[Newberryone]

This whole cycle of big freeze in the US/Canada which as a result only aids and abets the jet stream to continually fire up needs to come to a shuddering halt - and before we potentially see any sig changes in our neck of the woods. By which time chances are the block to our NE may have also loosened its grip, or pushed back NE - so we're back to 'no-mans land' with other options available. Azores, Bartlett, northerly? For many dry would be a preferred one of course.

Frustrating times perhaps but the stark reality remains - the current pattern cannot continue indefinitely. It has been far too stubborn for far too long, indeed what actually happens next is certainly making for some pretty fascinating model viewing.

Rainfall totals for January are also raising a few eyebrows! Well above the UK average for many.

Keep the faith peeps

True, a change will ultimately come about but it's presently showing all the signs of being later rather than sooner. There's no disguising the fact the earths climate has become more extreme. Case in point being last year itself, don't have the stats but exceptionally dry and warm from June just about sums it up.

Nature will always redress the balance and that is precisely what's been happening since Dec 12th last.

 

Personally, the present synoptics are far more exciting than a boring Azores-Bartlett 

[Richie V]

Same old i'm afraid paul, if it don't show cold... Forget it. There are far more serious issues afoot in the next 10 days or so. I think by the end of next week, every news channel and paper in the land will feature the weather as the main headline. Serious rain issues and possible serious wind event are afoot.

This type of post bugs me tbh - just because a model goes off on a tangent later in some runs a week ago it doesn't mean everything it now suggests is not going to happen. If we worked on that basis then we'd never look at any models as they all have their ups and downs!

[Newberryone]

Four good storms on the latest GFS output, all very exciting for Winter storm lovers.

I think these storms will make the news.

GFS has made my day. I love it when the weather goes off on one...

Shame about the cold not arriving in a big way, but we can't expect the same every year or it would get boring IMO 

The GFES ensembles are showing a gradual warming, so its more energy for rain and wind I presume.

Three words spring to mind...Bring It On 

[stodge]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012906/gfs-0-78.png?6

 

A very threatening storm for Saturday with especially strong winds to the south of the storm centre which of course doesn't cross the country but curves NE and then NW.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012906/gfs-0-156.png?6

 

Any number of (I suspect) very difficult to forecast secondary features to enhance the wind and rain especially (but not exclusively) for the south so another pounding (or series of poundings). The furthest reaches of FI offer some form of respite as the core of the vortex pulls westwards over northern Canada and pressure falls over the Bering Strait

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012906/gfsnh-0-384.png?6

 

Far too early to write off mid-February and onward at this stage. We knew there was like to be a final fortnight of Atlantic-dominated weather starting about now and we are just perhaps starting to see hints as to what might follow.

[492]

-49 deg C top right at 09Z this morning.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2014012909&size=large〈=en&area=eur

[Mucka]

It is now at the point where I force myself to skim through the charts to look for a sign, any sign, just a sniff of something other than endless rain and Atlantic dominated weather.

The block to our East is going to be tortuously eased East with a seemingly endless procession of low pressure systems stalling over the UK and dumping their load over us courtesy of the Canadian PV and block to our East.

Eventually the block will break down with low pressure pushing through so after another 8-10 days of this misery we can look forward to some more mobile weather only with low pressure getting beyond the UK and we will be back to square one waiting for a signal for the zonal train to end. 

Very difficult to see how anything can develop within the next two weeks and I say that as someone who appreciates just how quickly seemingly endless doom charts can change. The problem her is we have at least 8-10 days for the block to break down and then a minimum of  4 or 5 days for anything to develop from there with a more amplified pattern than currently modelled and those are minimum time-frames.

Once the Canadian PV is replenished (Incredible how that has persisted) the best we can hope for is a quick demise of the block and for that PV to shift East which would bring occasional cold NW flow later and from there hope for a trough to set up in Scandinavia (The complete opposite of what we have been looking for all winter) and an amplified pattern in the Atlantic behind which would give height rises over Greenland.

A late winter mid Atlantic ridge/Greenland high is the only way we are going to see any proper cold weather now IMO.

 

I have often written of how Scandinavian highs are my least favourite route to cold because not only are they so fickle and so rarely deliver snowfall for all (usually the East will benefit but the West stay dry unless you get the perfect shaped cut off high at a higher latitude/ rare as hens teeth) but when they go wrong they can ruin a couple of weeks of winter because they can be stubborn to breakdown with the pattern since mid Jan a perfect example. Of course we can't know the East won't win the battle so we cheer it on (especially those in the SE) but weeks later all we have is floods and disappointment.

Give me a Greenland/Icelandic high every single time because they often verify when modelled and when they do they often bring widespread snowfall with channel lows more likely as well. They may not generally be as long lived as strong blocks to the NE but endless dry cold weather doesn't do it for me anyway.

The only hope I have from Scandi high is that it verifies and retrogresses to Greenland- also rare as hens teeth.

 

I detest Scandi highs. 

[Summer Sun]

Deep FI on the 06z GFS run as we start to approach mid February with pressure starting to rise which would be very welcome for the flood hit south west and the UK in general giving all areas a chance to start and dry out

 

 

This run of non stop rain and low pressure systems will come to an end eventually keep the faith

Edited January 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Weather Boy]

True, Gavin but 13 February is deep, deep FI and the GFS is terrible when it comes to FI (despite it going out furthest).

 

13 February could just easily see just as we're forecast to have at the weekend/ next week, or a raging easterly for that matter!  Not that you'd be sticking any money on the latter...

[gottolovethisweather]

I think I just saw a snowflake...but it might just have been a very big rain drop

 

Thanks EML, strange that you should say that, since that rainband has gotten closer to my patch in CSE, the Air Temperature has dropped 0.6c down to 3.8c right now. Sorry, but just had to also mention the fact that my Davis shows a snowflake on it too, the other one I witnessed for real was on Christmas Day evening and that was a few sleety flakes on the wind. This current Fax Chart indicates the rather complex picture at current time.

 

 

Anyway moving on to other recent posts, there is more discussion to be had around all types of weather and for now I won't ignore the fact that some snow is in the current forecast and then of course on with the wind and cold rain. Where's the dry weather? perhaps that will arrive in time for the second week of February? A note to all, this is all perfectly valid model discussion, even if right now I am talking about the present, so here's to the future.

Edited January 29, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Tamara]

The story of the winter has been well documented in various posts by many of us through the season - but the following charts, for me, illustrate and tell the whole story well. First up we have the start of the winter with the big -EPO poleward ridge that attempted to send downstream amplification into the atlantic and had the effect of sending the bulk of the vortex into Siberia. At this stage the westerly QBO driven polar vortex was in the process of rapid intensification and it was a case of hoping to squeeze out an early season northerly toppler/polar maritime incursion from the process, but the mid latitude highs in evidence didn't produce this - despite models suggesting greater amplification of the atlantic pattern several days out. However..at least at that time we had been dry...alas it was all about to change...

 

 

So, in that respect then, as documented would happen around the end of November/ early December - there was vortex energy transport back across the pole towards Greenland and Canada and the scene was being set for parts of Canada and the US to go into the freezer, whilst at the same time, the cyclogenesis fuse button was about to be hit as all that Tundra air poured into the warmth of the atlantic and started to aim a loaded gun at the UK

 

Which led to these damaging horrors and a ruined Christmas for many !!

 

 

 

In the first week or so of January we started to see the first signs of wave activity on the vortex and further activity programmed to attack it in the pipeline. This lead to attempted trough disruption phase one (as I called it) beginning as heights starting building to the NE..but of course hampered with the remaining upper trough to the NW

 

 

 

 

Hopes were growing well at this point as indicators increasingly pointed to an ever disrupted and weakening vortex (especially with the indicator hints dropped that GLOSEA stratospheric model had a pretty good signal (at the time in earlier Jan) for an SSW for end Jan/early Feb. This focussed monitoring of the other models and the GFS and ECM models starting waxing/waning on further stronger warmings to add to the progress made so far.

 

The end product as we know has actually led to this..the end product of attempted trough disruption phase 2 ..and brings us right to the present and today/tomorrow..

 

 

 

 

......and the knowledge that the vortex over Canada is relatively weaker but lacks the firepower to punch it soon enough to allow a proper upper cold spell in what looks like enough good time in February. Hence we have, right at the time of typing, the very weakest of end of the line 'easterlies'..but we get an idea from that chart how the extra umph *could* go eventually on to produce TD phase 3 with a proper medicine of vortex destruction..some proper undercutting and a rise in pressure to the NW with the vortex over Canada subdued. But the remaining strength and presence of the upper troughing tour NW is too clear to see

 

What of the future? We see predicted charts like this...

 

 

 

More of the same...the vortex over Canada resolutely pouring out cold air stateside and keeping the low pressure train heading downstream and then hitting the buffers, as ever, right over this little island and dumping its contents of water over us. How much longer can it go on?

 

The problem is already documented. The SSW gravy train forecasts have not materialised as suggested, and hoped for, and we know that the remaining strength of the vortex to the NW remains prohibitively high to disengage and switch the Canadian cold blower off.

 

To add insult to injury, one of the manifestations of the vortex activity that has occured is to send further energy back across the pole to reinforce the vortex over Canada !! Hence the type of chart shown in that last chart up the page from todays ECM.

 

This is not a west to east wholly integrated vortex that it was back in the festive season, the changes in sequence as plotted through the winter clearly show the evolvement that has occured through wave activity on it. Unfortunately the Russian High is too far east to get us out of jail, but also not far enough east to stop the Canadian train ending its cyclonic journey right over us. At the same time, upstream amplification remains on the wrong side of the hemisphere to change the dreadful profile over the atlantic in tandem with the fact that we lack enough ammunition still to tackle that obdurate vortex to our NW which would allow such amplification to get colder air southwards in our parish.

 

All we can do is endure further, sit and wait. The priority the country is crying out for right now would be simply a drying up process..but not only can't we get the cold pattern many of us are looking for, we also cannot yet see an end to the UK boating extravaganza that even the ducks are probably waiting for an opportunity to blow dry their feathers with in the sun by the waters edge

Edited January 29, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[MR EXTREMES]

give it a few more days projected parts of the vortex moving over the alantic and lowering heights to our east also the north pacific ridge hopefully on the move on the ecm in fi I think several days and the situation will settle im punting for second third week in feb to see better favoured blocking.

 

perhaps even march.

 

its an absolute cert that things are going to change although we need to weather more storms and lots of rain the gfs just see spiralling lows but being spawned futher south into the mid alantic as the Canadian vortex drops futher south into the states.

 

I expect changes in the next 7 to 10 day im holding on top a more positive approach and that's after my winter ideas turned out pretty good, but that was based on the teleconnections overall which did not favour a cold winter from the start.

 

but im already excited about next winter with solar activity dropping of from sept and nov higher output.

 

and to be honest its a massive credit to the strat thread as they gave the heads up on the information needed to let us know that winter wont be a 09/10 event.

they also in the strat thread can now work with all the data and information collected through this winter and theres no question that this winter was a learning curve for the opposite of cold.

 

rubbish winter really stressful but theres still time not a lot but some.

[Harps]

Plenty of interesting weather looks possible over the coming week, storm's affecting Ireland more than the UK but still a lot of potential and with so many lows swinging past theres a good chance we'll get a direct hit from one of them. High tides at the weekend could be a concern with Saturday mornings storm and after that things look like getting very unsettled with any number of lows developing off the main low in the Atlantic

[Man With Beard]

Deep FI on the 06z GFS run as we start to approach mid February with pressure starting to rise which would be very welcome for the flood hit south west and the UK in general giving all areas a chance to start and dry out

 

 

This run of non stop rain and low pressure systems will come to an end eventually keep the faith

Says it all when you have to posts FI charts on when it will become dry!

The best thing about the 00z and 06z charts is they can't get any worse, I got quite dizzy following the 06z trying to follow these lows.

The best hope for getting rid of the rain is better rushing from Azores and a slightly more stubborn block to the east - this may dry things out a bit more away from NW - both ECM and UKMO have wriggle room for this to happen. But not in time for this weekend.

[Troubleatmill]

 

 

All we can do is endure further, sit and wait. The priority the country is crying out for right now would be simply a drying up process..but not only can't we get the cold pattern many of us are looking for, we also cannot yet see an end to the UK boating extravaganza that even the ducks are probably waiting for an opportunity to blow dry their feathers with in the sun by the waters edge

 

Hi Tamara, didnt want to copy all of your post, but an excellent read and sums up the past, present and future spot on. Prety sure most of us agree on this last para too, infact when just checking out the 06z i got mildly cheery by the sign of HP ridging up from the Azores way out t336, bonkers really, but endure we do

Edited January 29, 2014 by Nicholas B

[Purga]

A great post as ever Tamara but reading between the excellently crafted lines, there's not much tangible evidence of any positive change anytime soon.

All we can do is endure and hope for better times - soggy regards from soaked, sloshy Sussex

[Robbie Garrett]

Finally looks to be a change in the weather coming around 11th Feb......

The rain will be getting warmer!

Pretty Average IMHO - I think this Winter is a mild/wet blip a bit like the one we had in 2012.   I think that the relentless rain is because of the good Summer we've just had, all in all I'd say this winter is pretty average = normal (maybe very wet) but what do you expect when we had hardly any over the Summer. 

 

 

 

 

No let down in the precipitation either..

 

Edited January 29, 2014 by Robbie Garrett

[Bobby]

The various ensemble means at day 10

 

ECM NAEFS GEFS GEM

 

Rarely do you see such strong agreement on a such a deep trough (960s mb) dominating our weather at 10 days out, that takes us into the second week of February. Things better change and get a move on sharpish if we want a winter.