Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[mountain shadow]

Oz summary.

Wet and windy.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well good agreement on the Siberian vortex giving a massive donation to the "save the Canadian vortex" trust.

GFS

 

Ens

 

If this energy transfer happens then as a metal robot on a popular American animated show once said...

Edited January 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Oz summary.

Wet and windy.

THE END

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

There is signs of a change in the strat from the ECM in the last 2 runs guys , decent wave 1/2 showing up with the vortex draining to Siberia and leaving Canada/Greenland finally. It's 8 days away so don't get excited , but at least it's something to watch in the next week , anything is better than what we have now guys.

Edited January 29, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Bristawl Si]

There is signs of a change in the strat from the ECM in the last 2 runs guys , decent wave 1/2 showing up with the vortex draining to Siberia and leaving Canada/Greenland finally. It's 8 days away so don't get exited , but at least it's something to watch in the next week , anything is better than what we have now guys.

I've seen a quite a few posts on the Strat tHread during January forecasting changes in the Strat, only to find a few days later, it's all changed again. Model Output all the same.  

[IDO]

Looking at the GEFS at T384 this morning, they are worse than 24 hours ago. At least there was one cool member, none this morning (mid Feb). There was one that we may appreciate:

 

  At least its dry. 

 

An outlier as most were like this: 

 

  

 

 

 

As strong a PV over Canada as we have seen all winter.

 

Its funny how all models sing from the same sheet when we are facing raging zonality, ECM op and GFS op both at T240:

 

 

 

Both have the PV doing laps round Greenland.

 

Temps mainly average to slightly above but in the wind and rain surely wont feel mild:

 

 

GEM is slower with the Atlantic march but at D10 the PV is surely going to overwhelm the block to the east: 

 

At D16 the 10mb strat has the PV in tact:  

 

You can see our problem from the D10 GFS mean:  

 

The NH pattern has just conspired against us. We have a Russian/Siberian mammoth high building east, squeezing the Siberian PV towards Canada (D6-9) and we have a strong negative PNA that shows itself as an Alaskan Block. The newly replenished Canadian PV has no where to go but stay put or move east. The GEFS show variations on that choice.

 

That looks a locked in pattern till late Feb. The CFS keeps it till the second week of March and then gives us an Iceland High.

 

 

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Looking at the GEFS at T384 this morning, they are worse than 24 hours ago. At least there was one cool member, none this morning (mid Feb). There was one that we may appreciate:

 

gensnh-17-1-384 (1).png   At least its dry. 

 

An outlier as most were like this: 

 

gensnh-3-1-384 (1).png gensnh-4-1-384 (1).png gensnh-6-1-384 (1).png

 

gensnh-7-1-384.png gensnh-5-1-384 (2).png

 

As strong a PV over Canada as we have seen all winter.

 

Its funny how all models sing from the same sheet when we are facing raging zonality, ECM op and GFS op both at T240:

 

ECH1-240 (.gif  gfsnh-0-240 (2).png

 

Both have the PV doing laps round Greenland.

 

Temps mainly average to slightly above but in the wind and rain surely wont feel mild:

 

graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (13).gif

 

GEM is slower with the Atlantic march but at D10 the PV is surely going to overwhelm the block to the east: gemnh-0-240 (14).png

 

At D16 the 10mb strat has the PV in tact:  NH_HGT_10mb_384 (5).gif

 

You can see our problem from the D10 GFS mean:  gensnh-21-1-240 (6).png

 

The NH pattern has just conspired against us. We have a Russian/Siberian mammoth high building east, squeezing the Siberian PV towards Canada (D6-9) and we have a strong negative PNA that shows itself as an Alaskan Block. The newly replenished Canadian PV has no where to go but stay put or move east. The GEFS show variations on that choice.

 

That looks a locked in pattern till late Feb. The CFS keeps it till the second week of March and then gives us an Iceland High.

 

You know full well that you posting charts on the last frames from gfs is absolutely ridiculous , and unless you have a crystal ball how the hell does that equate to late feb?

The ECM looks very different in the strat forecasts with the vortex completely leaving Canada/Greenland but you choose the show the fickle gfs .

I seriously think people need to chill out a bit before writing the whole of feb off before we'v entered it . Nobody can tell what's in the pipeline beyond day 7 I don't care who you are . The weather changes everyday and the computer models are only computers.

[Frosty.]

Gfs 00z has hit the rewind button to december 2013, wild with spells of heavy rain & severe gales or even occasional storm force winds...more flooding, more storm damage, temperatures fluctuating between rather cool and mild.. almost £1 Billion of damage from flooding and storm damage so far this winter..all I want is a few fluffy snow flakes.

[IDO]

You know full well that you posting charts on the last frames from gfs is absolutely ridiculous , and unless you have a crystal ball how the hell does that equate to late feb?The ECM looks very different in the strat forecasts with the vortex completely leaving Canada/Greenland but you choose the show the fickle gfs . I seriously think people need to chill out a bit before writing the whole of feb off before we'v entered it . Nobody can tell what's in the pipeline beyond day 7 I don't care who you are . The weather changes everyday and the computer models are only computers.

HiJust showing the charts and giving my opinion why they look like that. Looks like a reasonable possibility for the next 2-3 weeks, though the normal caveats apply. I have not posted charts in between as they all tell the same inevitable medium term outlook. I am looking for patterns and trends at the end of FI, but currently I do not know where we will see the kinder to reboot the pattern. As for we cannot forecast more than seven days ahead well you can when it's zonal, December is a case in point (many members kept saying that at the start of December, yet we had six weeks of it); it's when cold is forecast in the charts that you cannot take the charts at face value. And knocking GFS is a hobby on this site, but it's members never at any point went over 50% with the cold pattern that was forecast tomorrow, unlike some. It lead the models towards the actual weather!I do hope you are right though, as this winter has been truly terrible and disastrous for some However a few years of model watching has taught me to be realistic when it concerns wintry weather hitting our shores and I am not seeing it in the charts at the moment.

[picog]

CFSv2 has consistently indicated a very wet January and February, and it's still showing a wet Feb for the west of England, Wales and Ireland. It seems very good at picking up trends, despite the critics. Looks like March or April may be a chance to dry out. April in particular has been looking dry for sometime now.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece1Mon.html

[Gibby]

Good morning all. Here is the latest review of the latest outputs issued by the NWP for today Wednesday January 29th 2014 and raised from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show a quieter day today and tomorrow though still with some outbreaks of rain and sleet today as the remains of the recent deep Low over Britain finally leaves the South Coast as it drifts away into Europe. The dry, cold and cloudy weather of tomorrow will be short-lived as a new rapidly deepening Low swings in from the Atlantic towards the NW on Friday spreading a large swathe of rain and strong winds across the area from the SW. This could fall as snow over Northern hills briefly and will be replaced by clearer and chilly weather with squally showers, wintry on hills over the weekend as the Low only slowly drifts away North from Northern Scotland.

 

GFS then shows the entire remainder of it's run with repeated attacks of deepening Low pressure areas swinging in from the SW close to Western Britain and then moving further North each leaving blustery showers in their wake. The only glimmer of hope visible on this morning's operational run is that pressure rises somewhat later with the worst of the rain transferring to the NW with longer drier periods in the SE. Throughout the run temperatures at the surface will be close to average or a little above.

 

The GFS Ensembles show complete agreement on the continuation of rain and strong winds from Atlantic depressions close to NW Britain throughout with far too much rain projected for comfort and temperatures on the plus side of average.

 

UKMO shows another deepening Low having swung North up the Western side of the UK with an active front crossing east over the UK carrying another spell of heavy rain followed by showers.

 

GEM also shows deeply unsettled weather though it does show the chance of another slip into a cold ESE flow across the NE as the next Low in the series takes a slightly different orientation. This means little for the South with more heavy rain but a short colder snap in the NE with some snow briefly as the rain in the South moves North. By the end of the run all areas are deeply unsettled with centre's all over the place with wet and windy weather for all.

 

NAVGEM also offers no relief from the recent rains carrying repetitive sequences of weather North and NE over the UK with spells of rain and showers in association with Low pressure spinning NNE up the western coast of the UK.

 

ECM also shows unsettled and often wet weather next week as Low pressure remains in total domination of the UK weather throughout next week and continuing to provide plenty of rainfall to areas that least need it through the period in average temperatures overall.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a continuation of the pattern of deep low pressure over the Atlantic and the UK bathed in relatively mild South or SW winds with heavy rain for all at times with the heaviest rains appearing to be most likely adjacent to the wind in the South and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Jet Forecast remains as active as ever steaming across the Atlantic, strongly at times and then continuing East just to the South of the UK with just a gentle trending of the flow North over Southern Britain very late in the run.

 

In Summary today the pattern remains unchanged from yesterday with Low pressure looking in total domination of conditions over the UK throughout the entire output, generally positioned to the NW. This promotes frequent periods of rain on troughs crossing North and East across all areas with the heaviest rainfall still most likely in the South and SW where it is least needed. Temperatures present no problems this morning with the average for the time of year achieved on most days with even some days above average if Southerly winds waft North with any brighter weather between weather systems.

[snowking]

CFSv2 has consistently indicated a very wet January and February, and it's still showing a wet Feb for the west of England, Wales and Ireland. It seems very good at picking up trends, despite the critics. Looks like March or April may be a chance to dry out. April in particular has been looking dry for sometime now.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece1Mon.html

The trouble is picog even when averaged over the course of a few days it tends to throw out every scenario possible and so eventually it will prove correct but only because it is playing the lottery with a ticket containing every number combination possible!

 

Perhaps a little harsh but I remember back in October and November it was throwing out 10 day averages with some huge positive height anomalies for February over Greenland for example, fairly consistently too for a few weeks. Therefore it is difficult to use a predictive tool because whilst it throws out lots of different scenario's (one of which usually proves correct) it's difficult to know which of the scenarios will ultimately prove to be correct - which is supposed to be the entire point of NWP

 

I will add the caveat I have not got the evidence to hand to support this but I remember posting quite a few examples of the above from WeatherBell in the winter discussion thread at the time.

 

SK

[stodge]

Morning all

 

A rare opportunity for me to glance at the morning output (especially as getting up at 5am doesn't appeal). To be honest, it's all been said. GEM looks the wettest of a soggy bunch with UKMO perhaps the driest overall. The storm for the coming weekend still looks thoroughly unpleasant and no doubt continues to cause significant concern at Exeter and elsewhere though oddly enough UKMO is perhaps the least threatening of the model variations in terms of approach and intensity.

 

I'm less convinced about the warmer evolution this morning as well - again ifs and maybes for the extreme south but not much to be honest.

 

I note the earlier comment about the Iceland HP for March - it ties in with a number of thoughts I've seen for a post-winter evolution.

[Summer Sun]

My god we have high pressure showing briefly on the 00z run from GFS............unfortunately its 360 hours and lasts only one day

 

 

The ensemble shows it was an outlier sadly

 

 

Precipitation charts on the 00z run show worrying amounts of rainfall in the areas which desperately need a break

 

[Man With Beard]

Incredibly the ECM op and mean manage to make things even worse today - the T240 are quite simply worst case scenario for everyone except ducks - a tight as you like vortex centred around Greenland - endless rain for yet more days after that. Pray it doesn't verify, not just for snow lovers but for the villagers just a few miles from me where roads have been turned into rivers, cause it's just going to get worse and worse for them otherwise.

[mcweather]

have come to believe that it's a Greenland high or forget it. Time after time these much anticipated Russian/Scandi highs come to nothing.

 

They either edge west painfully slowly and then just as slowly fizzle out or limp off back to Siberia without delivering a single snow flake. Scandi highs are the bs-ers of meteorology — the only people who get any cold as a result of them are the Scandinavians or Russians themselves, as they keep insulating cloud layers at bay overnight.

 

If you want see any cold from Scandi high you might as well watch that autistic female cop on The Bridge II on Saturdays, BBC4.

 

 

 

Never mind the 'Winter's over' comments, from my point of view, it never even started. Just the leaves fell off the trees. We've not even needed to light a fire for 4 months — the underfloor heating and Aga and a jumper are perfectly adequate. It just feels unpleasantly clammy and chilly inside due to the high levels of humidity — outside, suitably protected against the wind, it's quite warm.

 

I have to agree with you on that Iceni.  Unless the Scandi high has something to draw it west like some hieghts over Greenland then it always seems to have the mother of all battles and will 9 times out of ten lose against a decent strength jet stream pushing northeast.

 

I've lost count over the years of promising  situations from Scandi that have just been shunted away southeastwards because the scandi high didn't have any quiet space to push westwards into.

 

if you look back at nearly all the easterly cold and snow situations ( the really good ones I mean,) they nearly all had at least some heights over Greenland as well.

Edited January 29, 2014 by mcweather

[Cloud 10]

The trouble is picog even when averaged over the course of a few days it tends to throw out every scenario possible and so eventually it will prove correct but only because it is playing the lottery with a ticket containing every number combination possible!

 

Perhaps a little harsh but I remember back in October and November it was throwing out 10 day averages with some huge positive height anomalies for February over Greenland for example, fairly consistently too for a few weeks. Therefore it is difficult to use a predictive tool because whilst it throws out lots of different scenario's (one of which usually proves correct) it's difficult to know which of the scenarios will ultimately prove to be correct - which is supposed to be the entire point of NWP

 

I will add the caveat I have not got the evidence to hand to support this but I remember posting quite a few examples of the above from WeatherBell in the winter discussion thread at the time.

 

SK

Yes,there was some exciting CFS ensemble predictions back in September for the coming December,which were way off the mark when compared to reality.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2014 by Cloud 10

[Frosty.]

though oddly enough UKMO is perhaps the least threatening of the model variations in terms of approach and intensity.

 

 

That doesn't mean much to be honest, since the bitterly cold Easterly the ukmo model was promoting for 8 runs in a row will come to nothing for the majority of the uk apart from the far north eastern corner. The ukmo model in particular led us a merry dance up the garden path and down the street.

Edited January 29, 2014 by Frosty.

[Paul]

That doesn't mean much to be honest, since the bitterly cold Easterly the ukmo model was promoting for 8 runs in a row will come to nothing for the majority of the uk apart from the far north eastern corner.

 

This type of post bugs me tbh - just because a model goes off on a tangent later in some runs a week ago it doesn't mean everything it now suggests is not going to happen. If we worked on that basis then we'd never look at any models as they all have their ups and downs!

[Purga]

Very wet & generally unsettled outlook with average to above average temperatures right into mid February acc. to GFS ENS

 

 

Nothing at all cold or wintry for the bulk of the UK apart from Scottish mountains and some NE areas at first.

[Nick F]

While we stare down the barrel of the Atlantic gun over the coming days, thinking back over the last few months of model watching, even the models have struggled to produce many inspiring FI charts for coldies - this one from ECM on 00z on the 8th Jan for day 7 probably the best any model could conjure:

 

 

 

Back to reality, not really much can be added to this morning with regards to the outlook, other than to say that sooner the block to the east clears away, the better. As the conveyor of lows arriving from the west and slowing against this block across the UK, before slowly edging northeast, means frontal systems and their rain will be slower to clear and hence bring more rainfall and exacerbate what is already serious problems of high water levels. If the flow is more westerly, then the fronts would clear quicker.

Edited January 29, 2014 by Nick F

[Frosty.]

This type of post bugs me tbh - just because a model goes off on a tangent later in some runs a week ago it doesn't mean everything it now suggests is not going to happen. If we worked on that basis then we'd never look at any models as they all have their ups and downs!

I was just making the point that some of us, including me, have been duped again by strong suggestions of a pattern change that will again come to naught, the first was the ecm back in late nov, this time it's all the models but especially the ukmo. The gfs 00z op run is plunging us back into the stormy pattern which has dominated winter so far and it's realistic....and as steve murr said yesterday, this winter is dire so far, cold fans will agree with him 100 %.

Edited January 29, 2014 by Frosty.

[Purga]

I've seen a quite a few posts on the Strat tHread during January forecasting changes in the Strat, only to find a few days later, it's all changed again. Model Output all the same.  

METO are not buying any significant Strat warming at all in the forseeable future with their more sophisticated methodology. I'm just discounting the whole Strat thing at the moment as a massive red herring.

[Bristawl Si]

METO are not buying any significant Strat warming at all in the forseeable future with their more sophisticated methodology. I'm just discounting the whole Strat thing at the moment as a massive red herring.

I'm not dissing the Strat discussions though. Just saying that the Strat model output seems as unreliable as the mainstream Model output. They're both future forecasts at the end of the day.

Certainly appears that the weather esp forecast for Feb (now) seems to have highlighted the continuing difficulty of forecasting weather weeks in advance, despite new technology, new scientific knowledge re Strat warming, PV 'behaviour' and the like. 

Many of the 'knowledgeable' were expecting a pattern change for February and a weakening of the PV i believe.

[Frosty.]

 

Many of the 'knowledgeable' were expecting a pattern change for February and a weakening of the PV i believe.

I'm anticipating a colder march, probably march will be the most wintry month since...last march.. I think the PV will transfer east and then there will be significant height rises across greenland with a higher risk of arctic incursions, march can deliver big time since the arctic is at it's coldest and the SST's are also pretty much as cold as they get around the uk..keep the faith coldies

Edited January 29, 2014 by Frosty.