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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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The models, well the ecm and gfs show another prolonged spell of wet and even stormy weather, at times, The pattern of course , will change, its not about "If"  but about "When!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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.Erm, wasn't that the point I was making :-)

Sorry didn't mean it in that way, I was trying to add to your point, that many on here had been posting "Winter's over!" comments, But perhaps not worded too well so apologies!

On tonight's models, well, I suspect snow chances for Friday/Saturday a little higher, the shape of ECM seems a little better for enhancing an easterly flow ahead of the front - and indeed the GEFS has a few members that cal for a wider "snow to rain" event. After that, yes, winter certainly is over in the snow sense of things for about 10 days. Interesting T240 chart on ECM - the whoe vortex gets dragged into the Atlantic pretty much in line with our latitude ... ok it could lead to more storms/flooding but see, little changes like these may spark bigger changes e.g. vortex gone from Canada, perhaps we could get heights rising a little in Greenland, who knows where it would go... 

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Well always the optimist I am not buying what the models are showing in

the extended range. Hopefully with enough amplification from the wave 2

induced warming that will be starting in a few days we will see the

Russian high amplifing and moving westward. This due to a more amplified

pattern to our north as the vortex becomes more stretched and elongated.

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Another example is, and if not the most extreme example, 1852-53, Dec 1852 (7.7) (3rd mildest Dec on record), Jan 1853, 5.1 (mild, albeit unexceptionally so), but Feb 1853 was a classic cold winter month with a CET of 0.6.  March 1883, one of the coldest Marches on record, also came after a very uninspiring winter.  I will also point out that December 1982 wasn't especially mild (4.4), an average December really.  Dec 1905 wasn't overly mild (4.9), only just above average really.  Although when Jan 1983 was so mild (6.7) 1982-83 was still a much above average December / January combination. 1974-75, one of the mildest winters on record, albeit with Feb 1975 less mild and also very dry, was also followed by a notable spring cold spell in late March which lasted into the early part of April. It is very clear that in recent years we have tended to go through 12 months or more of mostly below average temperatures followed by 12 months or more of above average temperatures.  When the cold developed in Dec 2009 above average CET months became scarce until Feb 2011.  Then when winter 2010-11 went down the pan and blew itself out after that frigid pre Christmas freeze, most months were above average CETwise until March 2012, which included some notably warm months such as April 2011 and the whole of autumn 2011, then rounding off with March 2012.  Then from April 2012 below average months predominated until June 2013.  Then in July 2013 it all switched to mostly above average months again, which have included a very warm July and October in recent months.  Plus by the looks of it, what could be a notably mild winter possibly up there with the horror shows of 2006-07, 2007-08, 1988-89, 89-90, 97-98 etc. I will point out that, it is very rare to see every month in a 12 month period with a CET above or below the same month in the preceding year.  The only example I know of where this happened was from May 2007 to April 2008 where every month was below its preceding partner.  When you look at the CETs since last July, it has certainly been notably warm, and come June 2014 we could be heading for a notably high 12 month rolling CET. What has gone wrong this winter?  When you look at notably mild winters, like 1974-75 and 1988-89, 1989-90, they tended to follow on from preceding winters that were nothing to write home about, 87-88, 73-74.  A different example was 1997-98, which followed on from the strongest El Nino on record in the second half of 1997.  Then two more duff winters followed on from this.  2006-07 also followed on from the warmest second half to a year on record, and then another rubbish winter in 2007-08 followed it.Yes, I acknowledge that 2013 as a whole did have a warm second half, but it was nowhere near as warm as 2006.  None of the above examples of very mild winters fit the pattern of winter 2013-14.  A neutral ENSO (though it obviously is no guarantee of colder winter weather in the UK, and never has been), winter 2013-14 has followed on from a decent winter last year.  Yes, this winter may have been very unlikely to be as cold as 2009-10 and the one last year, but was it ever likely to be up there with the horror shows of 2006-07, 1988-89, 89-90, 97-98 etc?  Even a large majority of milder than average winters have managed a few colder spells and a few snowfalls here and there.  No-one ever expected that this winter would be as good as 2009-10 or the one last year, but I do not think that anyone expected that this winter would turn out very mild and devoid of anything remotely wintry.  So what has gone wrong? I will also point out that, it is actually relatively rare to see a winter deliver all months below average, some examples are winters like 1870-71 and 1879-80 that affter a cold December and January they have flipped and turned very mild in February.

Very informative and it tells it's own story really that no one can forecast an upcoming season. I disagree that this current winter couldn't have been as cold as 2009/10, if the Synoptics are right then the winter could have been exceptional for cold. No one could foresee the winters of 1947 and 1963 but you could argue that the science wasn't as great then. What about 2009/10, this was when, with improved science the met office forecast that it would be a milder than average winter! I believe that was their last seasonal forecast.
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Hmm pretty grim viewing today. Ok my attempt at a larger picture/pattern change and using the ECM

There has been frequent Alaskan ridges which I think helped to split the vortex. Example of this below.(dagger stabbing off Canada)

Posted Image

 

What does happen in FI with the ECM is that instead of a ridge, there is a proper attempt at a high which seems to make a shift in the current pattern, a little bit of retrogression from the Atlantic.

Shortly before the development of the Alaskan high: watch the low systems just west of the UK, 2 of them, 1 NW 1 SW.

Posted Image

 

Alaskan high forms, watch the big shift and phasing of the low NW. 

Posted Image

Also notice the blocking seems further West, just off the UK, looks like the North Sea. 

 

So, as far as I can see a return to zonal "mild" weather is far from the mark. Something has to change and I am on the "we will get something wintry" side of the fence. The cold isn`t that far away from the East, just needs topping up.

Posted Image

 

Yes I could have said winter is over but that has been said multiple times.

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Looks like Putin will be happy, the start of the Olympics could be very cold with high pressure to the ne there and they've had some good snow recently so it all looks very good going into the early alpine events.

 

Closer to home its variations on the same theme across the models, a cold blip, some snow for the far north especially inland areas of Scotland and loads for the mountains as that deep low moves in,troughing close throughout the next ten days and more likely beyond, a valiant attempt by the block to the east to edge the troughing west but its like David meets Goliath, no match really.

 

The ECM probably the least worst in terms of a zonal horror show but we're talking degrees of awfulness rather than  anything cold potential wise, the T144hrs flattered and then imploded soon after.

 

Overall a stalemate likely, it will change at some point but no clear sign of when!

 

 

Agree a change will come eventually....

 

Changes are forecast to take place over NE Pacific which should change the pattern over the USA which is the key to a quieter atlantic  i.e. heights developing over eastern USA which should inject less energy off the eastern seaboard.

 

As for the models not surprised to see them showing further low pressure anchoring itself to our west with further rain and wind - the polar vortex has been as strong as it can be, and there is a major strong temp gradient over N Atlantic fuelling the Jetstream - interestingly there is also a classic tripole developing with warmer waters south of Greenland then much colder water then warmer waters - which can mean a negative NAO... It would be unusual to see 3 months with such a lively atlantic with barely a window of dry settled weather - when did this last happen??? oh our recent summers...

 

Like your posting on the winter Olympics. I'll probably get shot down for saying this.. but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians are playing with the weather gods and locking the high in place so the games see wonderful dry cold sunny conditions. Didn't the Chinese play around with the clouds for the Beijing Olympics to ensure there was copious snow.. mmm not saying anything but never trust the Russians or Chinese!! Its no coincidence that the Russian high is transferring southwards is it... they'll do anything to paint there country in golden lights..

Sorry but meant to post my views in a separate post - not sure what happened above...

Edited by damianslaw
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If I may dull the mood for a while...

Sorry, I only see strong signals for a mental jet flow again. I again expect some extreme lp's to be progged from tommorows 12 zeds onward just like the start of december. See if i'm on the money for a third time in a row. My methodoligy on this is still in It's infancy. We'll see.

Im off to william hill to place a bet for the windiest feb on record in the morning.

PS, I aint trolling

Best

Ric Posted Image

To be fair I genuinely believe this is a realistic view of where things stand right now. Alaskan ridges and how they can result in a split vortex down the line is all very well but the overriding fact of the matter is the models have consistently been showing for a considerable period of time now a rapid deterioration in weather conditions to take hold from this coming Friday. So it's certainly not inconceivable to believe we won't see upgrades in the days ahead with regards to the intensity of these upcoming lows similar to that of Dec.

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To be fair I genuinely believe this is a realistic view of where things stand right now. Alaskan ridges and how they can result in a split vortex down the line is all very well but the overriding fact of the matter is the models have consistently been showing for a considerable period of time now a rapid deterioration in weather conditions to take hold from this coming Friday. So it's certainly not inconceivable to believe we won't see upgrades in the days ahead with regards to the intensity of these upcoming lows similar to that of Dec.

Its also not inconceivable to believe we wont see upgrades regarding alaskan ridges and a split vortex

 

Would i be surprised if February is as mild and stormy as Jan and Feb - No

Would I be surprised if we see a very cold spell before February is over - No

 

That's because our weather is full of surprises

 

EWS

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Thank you, I seem to have ruffled feathers in here big time this eve. Apologies to the mod team.

To be fair I genuinely believe this is a realistic view of where things stand right now. Alaskan ridges and how they can result in a split vortex down the line is all very well but the overriding fact of the matter is the models have consistently been showing for a considerable period of time now a rapid deterioration in weather conditions to take hold from this coming Friday. So it's certainly not inconceivable to believe we won't see upgrades in the days ahead with regards to the intensity of these upcoming lows similar to that of Dec.

Edited by Richie V
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ecm mean slp couple hundred miles west of scotland days 10/12 is 974mb.  going to be wet for the west (at least) and i would suggest windy aswell. going to be secondary features swinging around the circulation and given the cold air entrenched in what is ostensibly an extension of the canadian vortex, some notable weather on offer.

 

also, looks like the next fortnight will see the complete evacuation of the siberian vortex to canada. that quite a journey and of course, it couldnt have been the other direction could it! we could call that vortex displacement. anyone like to suggest the worst possible place for a displaced vortex to reside ??

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ecm mean slp couple hundred miles west of scotland days 10/12 is 974mb.  going to be wet for the west (at least) and i would suggest windy aswell. going to be secondary features swinging around the circulation and given the cold air entrenched in what is ostensibly an extension of the canadian vortex, some notable weather on offer. also, looks like the next fortnight will see the complete evacuation of the siberian vortex to canada. that quite a journey and of course, it couldnt have been the other direction could it! we could call that vortex displacement. anyone like to suggest the worst possible place for a displaced vortex to reside ??

Canadian side not good
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To be fair I genuinely believe this is a realistic view of where things stand right now. Alaskan ridges and how they can result in a split vortex down the line is all very well but the overriding fact of the matter is the models have consistently been showing for a considerable period of time now a rapid deterioration in weather conditions to take hold from this coming Friday. So it's certainly not inconceivable to believe we won't see upgrades in the days ahead with regards to the intensity of these upcoming lows similar to that of Dec.

The vortex is already split, it's keeping it split is the issue.
 
So many posts in here that are not backed up with a chart and phrase robbing.
 
Anyway, changes afoot.
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The current model outputs strongly reflect what the 8-14 day outlook from NOAA has been showing for at least a few days, and also the Met Office's long-term outlook, with a region of anomalously low 500hPa heights to the west of the British Isles, suggesting below-average pressure there and thus a more intense Icelandic low than usual with winds often from the south-west or even south.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

The trend is for the Scandinavian high to retreat into Russia and Siberia and for intensification of the Icelandic low, but the Russian high doesn't look like being blasted away anytime soon, and hence the anomalous southerly component to the mean westerly flow over the British Isles as lows will often struggle to get east of the Greenwich Meridian.

 

There are a couple of days of fairly widespread snow potential although significant lying snow will probably be restricted to high ground.  Friday's frontal system may bring some wet snow, especially on its eastern flank, and the showers following behind the front will be wintry for a time, before the cold polar maritime air gets mixed out from the depression core:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140128/18/84/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140128/18/84/uksnowrisk.png

 

After that, though, temperatures look like rising generally above the seasonal average again.

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A worrying about of rainfall for areas that don't need any more rain. This is of course the GFS & the provisional figures and doesn't take in elevation enhancements very well.

Posted Image

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Dear oh dear. It really is looking grim isn't it? This mornings runs giving me that feeling I had back in December with low after low spawning off the Atlantic. Is there any end in sight?

 

My feelings go out to those poor folk in already badly flooded areas as it just seems there will be more rain to add to the misery.

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