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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

 

Nahh, we've fallen for that one too many times already. It'll just turn into a rainfest - again

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Just to echo a few posters, the medium term outlook is exceptionally poor for cold.  Apart a few days this week, the DeBilt ensembles could not be any worse for the end of January.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

 

I know the 2 'p' words (potential and patience) have been used a lot, but I think it's now wearing thin for the majority.  Sorry if this seems downbeat - just calling it how I'm seeing it.

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

It would be truly remarkable indeed if all three months of meteorological winter were snowless and wet - yet that is now my forecast and is what the models show. As I posted last night, I'd rather we had a Bartlett than this dire muck from the West. How some can find this "fascinating" I do not know - roll on spring, and let it be a warm, sunny one.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

I think perhaps we have to wave the white flag here on this winter, its just one of those which we have seen plenty of in the past although as it stands now this probably takes the Oscar because there were a few opportunities which could have mediated its horror rating. It wasn't the relentless PV to the north which has ruined many a winter but the  PV latched into ne Canada. Overall today solid support across the models for troughing sitting to the west of the UK, block to the east and a stalemate scenario for the foreseeable future. At this point if I was in the UK and offered a late winter spell like those in 2005 and 2006 I'd take it, even though that came at the end of February. The problem is at this moment in time even thats a stretch, and with the strat warming also giving up the ghost theres very little to see what could change the pattern. No doubt some good synoptics will appear in March when the feeling will be if only! So I think we should just expect the worst as we go into February and hope that something eventually does change.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to today's outputs and write off cold weather, after all where has believing in the charts got us since last November! As we go through the latter part of winter our window of opportunity for the real cold temperatures does decrease though so we would need the perfect wind direction I.e long fetch Siberian easterly. As we progress through March that then needs to be north of east with northerlies then favorite to be our last chance at the far reaches of winter due to the eventual continental warm up!
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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

I have seen the low pressure system prog'd for Saturday chop and change between battering the south coast with storm force winds and missing totally for a few days now.

I think this system will be very much talked about mid week. Although I am a snow lover, I also love nasty low pressure systems with high winds. The last good one around new year, I recovered 3 tons of valuable hardwood off the beach.

It is worth well over £3000 to me.

Therefore I am not interested in snow this winter, but wind and storms, sorry but my pocket speaks louder than my love of snow.

Maybe if one could make as much money out of snow things would be different for mePosted Image

I hope the moderators find my post a refreshing change from mourning the absence of snow. 

I am just waiting for the GFS to spit out the latest for the weekend.

I am also keeping an eye on shipping movements.....

Regards.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The latest EC32 shows the UK and Europe seeing above average temperatures through February after a chilly start to the month for some

 

Pressure for the UK to the 16th of Feb remains unchanged unfortunately with low pressure anchored to the north / north west of the UK keeping the UK in a mild and wet west to south westerly flow

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

To me it is just as interesting as snow and ice as it makes up what is known as 'The weather'. This morning's charts can hardly be called boring and serve up a cocktail of interesting weather events over the coming weeks. Of course they are not the type of charts that many want to see and it is remarkable to me that how quiet it becomes on here when all chance of cold has gone as if 'weather' as a subject has been removed rather than snow. It would be helpful to 'newbies' if those that post disecting the atmosphere explaining why this and that will be responsible for bringing cold in the next week or so were to stay on here when the event doesn't happen to explain 'Why' it hasn't happened rather than disappearing from the forum altogether until the next cold shot is shown.

To be fair there are a few posts on here this morning explaining why it has all gone wrong. Most of us know why by now.The reason this thread goes very quiet is because 90% of people on this from December to February only seek snow. (which is understandable as it is Winter)Our bog standard weather for most of the year in the UK is wind and rain...it does not excite nor interest me at anytime of the year.This thread will pick up again IF we get any chance of a cold snap/spell during next month or even into March. Until then I will be heading to the Highlands ski resorts for my fix of snow! Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

For the second time this winter, the temp at the 30HPa level managed to reach "average", but in the last few days has returned to the blistering cold of December.post-7706-0-66739600-1390903711_thumb.gi

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

For the second time this winter, the temp at the 30HPa level managed to reach "average", but in the last few days has returned to the blistering cold of December.Posted Imagepole30_nh.gif

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

 

This is a genuine area of interest. The post winter analysis as to why the strat got as cold as it got will be worth reading. I dont have the knowledge or skill yet... and I suppose with 5 weeks or so of proper winter left it is premature to be setting up such a question on the strat thread. But it is a question that must be asked. While the +QBO ENSO neutral and solar maximum analogues did point to a strong vortex driven by a cold core, at least for the first 2/3 of winter, I think it must still be a bit of a surprise just how cold the strat has been. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Meanwhile in an ironic twist the 6 z GFS output is being discussed in the moaning thread

Maybe they've lifted the swear filter in that thread! lol The GFS 06hrs run is something you'd expect to see in early winter not February, another horror show of rain and flooding, before the lower resolution it looked averageish with some snow over higher ground in the north.

 

With my strawclutching goggles on theres still a decent dig south of the jet to the west which could develop a se flow ahead of the main trough, so for the far north and higher ground perhaps a few hours of snow before the inevitable snowman melt tragedy takes over!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Meanwhile in an ironic twist the 6 z GFS output is being discussed in the moaning thread

 

Then let's have a model comment. ECM storm on Sunday

 

Posted Image

 

GFS storm on Sunday though a bit further north; south may be drier?

 

Posted Image

 

UKMO storm on Sunday

 

Posted Image

 

When the output is as tediously one dimensional as it has been for so often this winter, some tangental comments and thoughts are bound to creep in...

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

1814...the last year there was a frost fair on the Thames

it all started on the 1st Feb.

There's still time!! <desperate clinging>

 

Hell yes, two words.

 

MARCH 2013. Posted Image Posted Image

 

Remember that month from not so long ago. Seriously though, I want cold Posted Image  just as the majority in here do and I'm simply more left questioning what the next extreme event could be? Like most, I've had biblical rainfall, strong winds, countless hail days and four Thunder days this year and we're only on the 28th January. We simply don't know what's around the corner, it could be another MARCH 2013? Should that be the case, please weather gods if you're listening Posted Image ,  don't make this one another which is so prolonged that it effects the livelihoods of our farmers and countryside lovers and as a result effects global food prices and availability. All weather should be interesting as Gibby states, hell that's why we're on theses forums I would hope. For some however, and believe me I feel your pain, the "stuck in a rut" climate patterns are somewhat tiresome, whichever way they might tend to fall, be that cold and dry, mild and zonal, cold and zonal etc.

 

Onto the here and now, the GFS 6z offers this by way of the NH Jetstream.

 

post-7183-0-87589200-1390904956_thumb.pn

 

The above, on the face of it isn't bad to see from a coldie's perspective, a Jet which is diving Southwards.

 

By t+51, i.e. 9am on Thursday 30th January you can see our problem looming out mid Atlantic, the Jet is upping the anti and it's changing position, at least in the short-term.

 

 

post-7183-0-73857900-1390905315_thumb.pn

 

Something curious is happening by 9am on Saturday 1st February as the Jet is shifted Southwestwards and buckles towards a NW to SE movement, once again forcing it Southwards as can be seen below.

 

post-7183-0-77262000-1390905789_thumb.pn

 

It is only come the 4th February that the Jet returns to a more Northward driven SW to NE alignment, so this could clearly change and it is beyond this timeframe where we should NOT be placing too many bets right now. Either way, FI would be placed around this timescale and any weather pattern is possible thereafter. By then, we could get a direct Northerly, equally an even milder SW'rly might be on offer. That is but a week away and there are at least three surface features to push through beforehand, as ever, anything goes with our climate. Posted Image One things for sure it's turning into active mode with weather from the East then from the Northwest and perhaps Southwest thereafter. A lot of cold rain, wintry showers, hail, Thunder and lightning on offer if little snow but it can never be termed mild in the next seven days. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

Posted ImageI really do hope we don't have another cold spring march last year was horrible,

Some charts showing another deep low pressure again isobars look tight so more strong winds again maybe, not good

Edited by JK1
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Tamara's post sums up where we are in terms of colder potential, and I do fear the tumbleweed maybe blowing across this thread for a while! Of course we can't rule out something colder in February at some stage but the PV over Canada has shown no sign at all of weakening for a sufficient length of time or moving further to the nw. As we see now it will get help from the Siberian side and this will give it another fuel injection.

 

Its for this reason that we see the models in agreement on bringing troughing right over or just to the west of the UK, whilst theres still some blocking showing to the east or ne theres a slim chance that this might get pulled a little further west but generally the UK would still end up as the crossover point.

 

We have seen at least one constant trend in recent weeks amongst the will it or wont it easterly drama and that's they have had the pattern too far east post T168hrs, we saw the pattern edged west but then as the modelling got to grips with things another little shunt eastwards.

 

I'm sure the hardened coldies  who have been here many times with these frustrating set ups will still plod along hoping for a change, and of course things can and do change, weather modelling is fluid and as we've seen just as colder synoptics can implode the same can happen with milder ones although of course much less regularly.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

06Z T90

 

Surely we can get even a little bit excited about this?

 

post-6879-0-87261600-1390910934_thumb.pn

 

 

.......or concerned?

 

post-6879-0-70307900-1390911136_thumb.pn

 

 

Ian

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Well looking at the 6z it doesn't get any worse than that to be honest, zonal zonal zonal. Not even the hint of a toppler

 

Doesnt look too "default" :) zonal from a directional point of view - not exactly a mild SW is it dragging what cold it can from Iceland and the Norwegian Sea.

 

Ian

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A number of posts have been moved to the moans/ramps model thread.

 

I know the output is dire for snow and cold but please keep your views related to the model runs in here please otherwise the thread quickly loses it's relevance.

 

Thank you everyone.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

So, all the big guns have raised the white flag today. The whiff of surrender permeates both this thread and the Strat thread. ECM32 says warm, the models say warm, the METO seem to be quietly expecting warm. Hell, we cant even find an ensemble that suggests any cold weather.

All of this is probably quite correct and with my CET prediction of 6.5C for Feb, I'm hardly bucking the trend here. What odds on the weather making complete idiots of the whole lot of us though :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

Hi Nick,Can't remember if it was you, nick F of steve M that said a while back... "history shows that in nearly every winter bar mabe one, if by the end of jan, no meaningful blocking or cold is or has been present, it won't be there in feb either"Not a direct quote pardon me if im wrong :)Ric

Tamara's post sums up where we are in terms of colder potential, and I do fear the tumbleweed maybe blowing across this thread for a while! Of course we can't rule out something colder in February at some stage but the PV over Canada has shown no sign at all of weakening for a sufficient length of time or moving further to the nw. As we see now it will get help from the Siberian side and this will give it another fuel injection. Its for this reason that we see the models in agreement on bringing troughing right over or just to the west of the UK, whilst theres still some blocking showing to the east or ne theres a slim chance that this might get pulled a little further west but generally the UK would still end up as the crossover point. We have seen at least one constant trend in recent weeks amongst the will it or wont it easterly drama and that's they have had the pattern too far east post T168hrs, we saw the pattern edged west but then as the modelling got to grips with things another little shunt eastwards. I'm sure the hardened coldies  who have been here many times with these frustrating set ups will still plod along hoping for a change, and of course things can and do change, weather modelling is fluid and as we've seen just as colder synoptics can implode the same can happen with milder ones although of course much less regularly.

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