Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[warrenb]

Zonal I am afraid, is about all you can say about the UKMO and GFS

[skadi]

   

 

The Alaskan high growing in strength on the UKMO +120. On the other side that Russian Bear that keeps her ground...Either one has to give in at some point.

[nick sussex]

The GFS and UKMO are both following the trend from this mornings ECM 00hrs run, interestingly the 850's over mainland Europe are colder than earlier look out for those positive heights developing over western Scandi. Could be something going on there in future outputs especially as the Azores high remains displaced and some energy is heading se.

 

The ECM might just go further than this as its picked up on the pattern earlier.

Edited January 27, 2014 by nick sussex

[Troubleatmill]

   

 

The Alaskan high growing in strength on the UKMO +120. On the other side that Russian Bear that keeps her ground...Either one has to give in at some point.

 

Could end as cross polar flow from one to the other, but sadly we are well and truly claimed by the atlantic, or in other words we are the Atlantics B##ch. for a while anyhow

Edited January 27, 2014 by Nicholas B

[Mucka]

Setting aside the disappointment of the recent collapse of any meaningful cold and snow signal for end of Jan early Feb it is time to look forward at what lies ahead and how things may play out.

After the brief colder interlude, where some may see a little snow for a time around the 29th, It does now look as though February will start on a stormy note though also cooler than one would expect when our Weather comes in from the Atlantic.

This relates back to the MetO's statement that Westerly winds will bring cooler air than what we would normally expect.

This could mean some quite exciting weather is just around the corner in the way of thunder, lighting, gales, rain hale and even a little snow.

Take today's charts for Feb 1st

 

 

That looks chilly and wild with heavy wintry showers and perhaps some thunder snow in the heavier bursts and though we can't take these charts on face value at that range it will certainly maintain my interest in developments in the MO.

 

Further afield it looks like there will be a more humdrum Westerly flow through the rest of the first Week of February but that Russian high will remain lurking and there is potential for further HLB across the Arctic. If we can get troughing further West and some amplification of the pattern in the Atlantic then it won't be long before we are chasing FI cold once more and this could develop as early as the second week of February.

 

It's a case of pick ourselves up and dust ourselves down for us coldies yet again in this miserable winter but the elusiveness of the cold and snow is what makes it so exciting for us and what makes the MO thread such compelling viewing through Winter.

After Tamara's pep talk I'm ready to go again, who's else is coming?

Edited January 27, 2014 by Mucka

[phil nw.]

We get close to a half decent cold pattern around T48-60hrs with a brief easterly and before the block starts to retreat enough for the next Atlantic system to move in.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012712/UN60-21.GIF?27-16

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012712/UN96-21.GIF?27-17

 

so it looks like another round to the Atlantic.The block just too far east for continental cold but it looks like quite a cold westerly flow for the weekend with some rain or showers turning wintry over the higher ground.

[Dean E]

Just to add to what Tamara said (Brilliant post by the way) The North Atlantic set up in much cooler than before...

 

GFS 12z +63hrs is a good example

 

 

Colder uppers than December and early January... may not bring what we want on face value, but all is there and in place to help possibly shift this awful pattern we've been in.

Edited January 27, 2014 by SnowMania

[MR EXTREMES]

I expect the ecm tonight starting to show signs of eith renewed blocking over scandi or possibly Greenland.

ive noticed slack high pressure to our north and northwest north of Greenland,is this the next roller coaster ride 3rd time lucky maybe.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

All I'm seeing is another very wet month ahead. Get ready for 'Fill Dyke February'. Some of the rainfall totals over us on the 12z look staggering :/

 

On the other hand. Im liking the look of 15c uppers beginning to show their hand over Morocco and S Med, which brings a thought of blossom and a feel of Spring not too far away

Edited January 27, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Bobby]

GFS and GEM show about a wet a pattern as you can imagine into February, deluge after deluge all the way to end of runs. Flooding to be making headlines again it seems unfortunately. We're going to need a bigger boat.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Bobby

[Summer Sun]

Precipitation amounts out to February 8th below, still no real respite in sight for now unfortunately

 

[MR EXTREMES]

can I ask is -4 upper air enough for snow to fall I just wondered sorry if of topic but the models are showing the -4 upper air across a lot of the uk.

[Joe Levy]

For someone like myself who tries but cannot always understand all the complicated factors at work in creating long term weather patterns, one of the most reassuring changes of the last few weeks has been the persistence of the models to show warmings in the stratosphere. Though not in the dramatic way of an SSW, it is the continuous gradual warming that has happened and is forecast to continue that is giving me cause for optimism in the long run. This particular chart is at the very end of the GFS 12z, but warmings are shown for pretty much the entire run before this. I honestly wouldn't have understood any of that without guidance from posters such as Nick and Tamara, as well as many others, so thank you

[Southender]

If there were a chart to sum up "winter" 2013/2014....Then I put forward this beauty.

 

 

[jvenge]

can I ask is -4 upper air enough for snow to fall I just wondered sorry if of topic but the models are showing the -4 upper air across a lot of the uk.

I'm sure someone will come up with an example of when it has, but fairly sure -6 is generally the accepted minimum. 

 

Cold rain and sleet!

[IDO]

Again another variation on the theme from GEM. Zonal from early next week but with uppers nearer average with no enhanced colder flow from the Atlantic:

 

T150:  

 

T180:   

 

T240:  

 

GFS in FI relocates a lobe of the Canadian vortex to the Atlantic, south of Greenland, T276:

 

Where it takes situ spinning nasty little shortwaves towards the UK, T360: 

 

If that came even close to verifying the UK would be in  a state of emergency from flooding:

 

T360:

 

Horrid pattern that could be worse than December/January.

Edited January 27, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Bobby]

If there were a chart to sum up "winter" 2013/2014....Then I put forward this beauty.

 

 

 

The four low pressures of the washout apocalypse.

[Purga]

A brief cold spell at least it's something. The Atlantic looks like remorselessly pushing back in again on the 12z's so far

 

GFS

Then

Still looks nippy though

 

UKMO

 

Still looks nippy though

[Pembroke Dangler]

can I ask is -4 upper air enough for snow to fall I just wondered sorry if of topic but the models are showing the -4 upper air across a lot of the uk.

-4 uppers would be fine as long as we had a feed of air coming in from the continent to produce lower dew points it snowed with uppers as low as -2 before with continent sourced air but as march gets closer then the 850s would need to be lower because the sun is stronger hope that helps

[Tim Bland]

It is worth noting that the stratosphere will alsways warm as we go into Feb and March. It is a natural part of the cycle from Winter to spring. This is why the PV generaly weakens as the seasons change. *sometimes* a cold spring will follow a mild winter as the cold that has been bottled up to our north is released south.

[legritter]

The four low pressures of the washout apocalypse.

I thought the same myself ,but lets hope they are all stringed out further south with a sausage high from finland too north atlantic,we need a sign erected out west ,keep sharp right .

[MR EXTREMES]

-4 uppers would be fine as long as we had a feed of air coming in from the continent to produce lower dew points it snowed with uppers as low as -2 before with continent sourced air but as march gets closer then the 850s would need to be lower because the sun is stronger hope that helps

thank you both shame really but I expect theres plenty at higher elevation for some and im still convinced that we will see a block form to our north or northwest.

[Summer Sun]

GEM at t240 shows mainland Europe starting to become more settled unfortunately that high doesn't look like coming to the UK any time soon, though things can change when least expected sometimes

 

 

An early taste of spring in southern Spain and southern Portugal

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It seems some have picked up on what I've seen too. 

Now I know I'm one that has said to look west for Feb and rest of winter proper but I'm certainly not writing off winter weather.  I think we are in a climate phase now where we will see more extreme weather patterns in all shapes not just cold......but I think cold will become more prevalent and I ain't looking for an early warm Spring come March.

For now t159 caught my eye, I'm looking at the trough coming off Eastern Seaboard of US.  Look at the temp gradient, I think this may develop into a serious LP as it crosses the Atlantic.

 

 

So with this occurring I won't be surprised to see this. 

 

 

And then onto the frame above where we see LP after LP crossing the Atlantic.  The rain and wind will be incessant and dangerous conditions will occur.  Something to watch for and I for one even as a cold lover would love to see a Bartlett form and ridge north to deflect these systems away.  But I suspect extremes will occur and droughts, wet/floods, cold, hot, severe gales are all part of that. I hope now for the jet to hike north

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 27, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mucka]

Looking through GFS ensembles things aren't quite as cut and dried as we might imagine regarding standard zonal conditions establishing themselves through the first week of February. Yes that is still the most favoured route but already lots of possible diversions appearing including the trough being moved West, diving lows and even some undercut of the block.

 

Samples.

 

 

JMA 12 has quite a large correction back west from yesterday evenings run albeit with a much feistier Atlantic in line with other output.

 

Edited January 27, 2014 by Mucka