Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I know patience is the watch word, and if this was late December that would not be a problem. However the GEFS are awful, at T240 90% are zonal.

 

Mean at T240: gensnh-21-1-240 (5).png

 

At T384 all but one is zonal, mean: gensnh-21-1-384 (4).png

 

Notice the Canadian PV, for a mean that is as strong as it has been. Some for an example:

 

gensnh-1-1-384.png gensnh-6-1-384.png gensnh-19-1-384.png

 

You can guess where the monster cold is going to be still: gfsnh-1-384.png

 

As I said before, a SSW if it happens is a bonus, but sitting back assuming it will happen, and happen in good time is not going to effect what the medium term (best part of winter) is going to show on the charts. eg. one run today (GFS) appears to delay that SSW (if it happens).

 

I could post horrible charts but looking for positives:

 

GEM is at least showing a PV in lobes: gemnh-0-240 (12).png  ...so not as zonal as GFS

 

ECM maybe slightly drier for the south: ECH1-240 (6).gif

 

I have been impressed with the GFS op, it has been an outlier for higher temps nearly every run, gradually dragging its members into milder territory. Today it has dragged the mean even closer in FI:

 

graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (10).gif

 

If the trend is anything, wet and milder (mild even) with zero chances of snow for London after this week.

 

All can change but currently very poor and the trend is going sharply in the wrong direction. The Strat remains our best chance.

Your posting mean charts for the middle of feb when we aren't even in it yet ? That's ridiculous . The mean charts the other day were showing undercutting and snow , with Siberian air at t144 . Did that happen? No . So why even try and make a forecast on weather 2.5 weeks away?

[nick sussex]

Looks like the GFS 18hrs run was the final tease before total agreement on the low moving east and phasing with low heights from the PV.

 

Theres sadly little chance of a slider now , perhaps some initial snow before milder air quickly sweeps eastwards, after that the models paint yet another disturbed picture, varying degrees of wet and windy conditions and the PV chunk over Canada simply refuses to weaken sufficiently or move further to the nw.

 

At this rate it will be going strong into April! There is still some blocking showing to the north and east but currently this is no match for the PV so another stalemate looks likely.

 

The ECM tries to develop something at T168hrs with a renewed ridge moving into the se of the UK but gives up the ghost and waves the white flag soon after.

 

Overall then after a brief flirtation with something colder this week its back to square one, perhaps the models have overdone the eastwards push in their later outputs so perhaps a chance of something drier edging in from the se but theres not much cold to tap into because of this earlier milder push into Europe.

 

Theres still February to come but there needs to be a big change to the NH pattern to see something more wintry and longlasting.

[IDO]

Your posting mean charts for the middle of feb when we aren't even in it yet ? That's ridiculous . The mean charts the other day were showing undercutting and snow , with Siberian air at t144 . Did that happen? No . So why even try and make a forecast on weather 2.5 weeks away?

 

 

Its IMO that we are dominated this winter by a Canadian Vortex that is defiant as it is resolute. It will continue to send its spawn towards the UK and even when we have had lulls in the Atlantic (from strat warming) any colder pattern is tossed aside by its relentless force. Its my opinion only and I hope its wrong, but thats what I see.

[Troubleatmill]

Its IMO that we are dominated this winter by a Canadian Vortex that is defiant as it is resolute. It will continue to send its spawn towards the UK and even when we have had lulls in the Atlantic (from strat warming) any colder pattern is tossed aside by its relentless force. Its my opinion only and I hope its wrong, but thats what I see.

 

Think you are right pal , we have seen the Siberian section of the PV wane and move around and rebuild as normal throughout this winter, unfortunately the Canadian section has remained resolute throughout, not giving us a any chance for a lull in the atlantic. so annoying as the chances have been there. It will wane eventually, it has to! but when wil this be? March? April, May!? Depressing stuff this, who knows by the end of the week it could all change and we are looking at the next chance, fear the worst though

Edited January 27, 2014 by Nicholas B

[bluearmy]

Its IMO that we are dominated this winter by a Canadian Vortex that is defiant as it is resolute. It will continue to send its spawn towards the UK and even when we have had lulls in the Atlantic (from strat warming) any colder pattern is tossed aside by its relentless force. Its my opinion only and I hope its wrong, but thats what I see.

Seems a very reasonable standpoint. Ens have shown Siberian chunk heading towards Canada by day 10 and today's ECM op a good example. That will keep th Canadian side going for a good week or so thereafter and signs that the east siberian segment wants to head towards the pole though that could possibly hold some interest for us mid feb. even a big split and propagating SSW may not be enough for us if a chunk of vortex resides Newfoundland afterwards. it is a long time till th end of feb ..............

[tight isobar]

Looking cross model this morning , it doesn't bode well for cold overall. However ONCE again the flips have been borderline ridiculous, over the last 5/7 days, admittedly the pv upstream that have reeked havoc cold usa/ canada has continued be a mass spanner in our cold works, don't be at all if some if not cross output look at whole different possible scenarios for us even come this evening. Stuck in suck most westerly based, for so long and with output having a tough time with block forms east north east,and all factors its and open book STILL atm.!?

[Frosty.]

not really throwing in the towel just being realistic with whats showing after things have developed in the last 24 hours-

 

regards

Steve

That's how I feel this morning..still, we have a NE'ly to look forward to on wed / thurs......RAWRRRRRRRRR

[bluearmy]

Shaun, the fi ens have always signalled a return of the Atlantic. The period between day 4 and day 8/9 was always the uncertainty and always the chance that if the dice rolled well, an established block could deflect the renewed Atlantic to ndercut continually. Alas, it hasn't happened that way and its reasonable to presume that there is no reason for the Atlantic to now not come in. How far past the meridian it gets is open to much debate.

At least I can get my tax return finished!

[Jason M]

To be honest the chances of anything major this week were always small. Even a fabled slider would have been pointless as the main requirement of snow had not been met which is cold air! The Russian high is going to be bringing air sourced from a long way south over the continent.

Still the chance of something mid feb if we get lucky so a bit early to give up though.

FWIW this morning the means posted are reflective of the output so I don't see why it's daft to post them. Just my opinion of course :-)

[Man With Beard]

"all background signals are pointing toward a blocked cold February"How many times have i heard that term "all background signals"? LOL

I do think there are background signals, blocking clearly is trying to get established and it is natural that the PV will get progressively weaker from now on ... but it's a race against time now to get everything in the right position for the UK. There's a real danger of course that the charts will finally get lined up in the second half of Feb when averagely good synoptics start becoming marginal ... if that happened, we could end up with a cool early spring too (last march was exceptional, I'm not considering that could happen again). But being more positive ... since eastern blocking doesnt want to go away (e.g. this mornings ECM), I think we'll get one more opportunity for a freeze up in the optimum winter period before say Feb 15th. Maybe it'll be our turn then. One really cold and snowy week might change everyone's perspective!

[Frosty.]

I might be able to raise hopes again, there is a chance of a BATTLEGROUND developing by friday / weekend as atlantic fronts bump into the cold air across the eastern half of the uk, the southwest  / west probably just becoming wet & windy and a little milder..but maybe a snowy breakdown for central and eastern uk?

[nick sussex]

Just looking at the ECM mean and spreads, theres good support for the operational run, there is another cluster of solutions that take low pressure further south towards the end and that also builds in high pressure towards Svalbard:

 

 

Thats about as much as I could find in terms of something a bit more interesting!

 

 

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. Here is the report from the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Monday January 27th 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models illustrate Low pressure close to NW Scotland filling slowly and moving slowly South through the next 72 hours before clearing Southern Britain on Thursday. Through this period there will be further showers, heavy at times with thunder, hail, sleet and snow all possible, the latter mostly over the hills. By Thursday winds will of switched briefly Easterly with a cold raw feed making it's way across Britain before the trend is reversed by Friday as a return of the Atlantic influence begins to take shape.

 

GFS shows very unsettled weather through the rest of its run with showers and longer spells of rain as new Low pressure areas spread East or NE across the UK with temperatures recovering to closer the average though still they could fall just below average at times.

 

The GFS Ensembles show this morning that the predicted cold snap for this week is quickly evaporating into  non event with strong support for a warm up next week to temperatures above average as winds switch to the SW and bring milder air up across the UK from more Southerly latitudes in the Atlantic. With low pressure in close attendance though amounts of rain will still be quite large for many.

 

UKMO closes it's run today with Low pressure South of Iceland and a broad WSW flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers crossing West to East across the nation regularly in average temperatures but brisk and occasionally strong winds.

 

GEM too brings Low pressure back across the Atlantic towards NW Britain giving rise to further spells of rain and showers, some heavy in a blustery SW wind and average temperatures.

 

NAVGEM too follows the course of action from the other output with milder Atlantic winds around Low pressure South of Iceland maintaining the sometimes wet and windy weather.

 

ECM has Low pressure marginally further North next weekend with most of the heavier rain towards the NW but still some for the South too at times. With winds becoming SW with time and less strong less cold conditions will gradually feed across the UK from the West.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a bias towards Low pressure being positioned South of Iceland with all of the UK under a SW flow around a Low pressure of one type or another to the NW. This means I'm afraid the likelihood of the operational's less wet conditions for the South is not well supported and the prospect of quite a bit of rain from this mean set of charts remains this morning.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

The GFS Jet Stream shows the flow running ESE to the South of the UK before running East over Southern Europe. It's trend is to change orientation towards more of a ENE movement across the UK and away to more central Europe later.

 

In Summary this morning it's more of the same I'm afraid as the Atlantic appears guaranteed now to make a complete comeback across the UK by the weekend. Models do diversify in specifics within this context but the message remains that the UK will continue to receive spells of rain and showers moving East into the UK quite regularly with only brief quieter and drier periods in between. After the whiff of a cold snap this week temperatures are shown to rise everywhere back to average levels or somewhat above in the South should GFS verify.

[Potent Gust]

Hi all

 

I don't often post in the Model Output section as I don't feel I have the knowledge of other posters in here.  I love cold and snowy weather and obviously this Winter has been poor for cold and snow so far. However my expectations have been kept under control this year due to the wonderful informative posts from Fergieweather. I feel the Met Office have been fantastic this winter and Ian's input is second to none.In previous years I would have got carried away if the charts were showing an easterly or northerly and then all too often I would be left feeling deflated when the charts did not verify. Ian has helped me keep very grounded and basically if the Met Office are not interested then I don't get too excited. At the end of the day they have access to much more data than we do. I am not saying everything they say is gospel just more realistic.

 

Anyway this a great forum and made all the better by Fergieweather's input. Thank you Ian

 

Let's hope we get some late winter surprises

Edited January 27, 2014 by Potent Gust

[Catacol]

Not good this morning. Trop modelling is almost all falling into line this week for an atlantic driven pattern by Saturday.

 

This is of no surprise to me because the strat profile was never really in line with those trop models that were toying with a strong block. But the bad news to report now is that both yesterday and today the strat modelling of the vortex at 100hPa by ECM for next week has begun to move away from the idea of a weakening of the Canadian segment towards a strengthening of it instead.

 

Only one chart to post that makes the point clearly. This is as far ahead as 5th Feb and shows the majority of the energy of the stressed vortex gathering over Canada with a signal for troughing to our west. Result? A move towards a milder pattern after the chill of this week, with plenty more rain. And no snow for the south.

 

 

Time is running out for this winter. I am back to thinking that we may end up getting the tropospheric impact of the ongoing pressure on the vortex only once the core of our winter has passed.

 

Incidentally - those that mocked RJS for his alternative methods may care to consider the winter as a whole should February fail to deliver anything white. He did not get the window of cold in early January that he felt was a possibility... but so far, for a forecast released way back in time, he has been pretty sound (again.) We are all trying to learn to translate the weather using a myriad of complex signals - but his success is too high to dscount the idea notion that there is much we still dont understand... and much of that information may lie in less conventional areas of meteorological study.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[IDO]

The ECM trend via Dutch Ensembles show the general rise in temps from week 2. Match GFS quite strongly:

 

 

The wind direction suggests the Atlantic has broken through to the Continent as well as past the UK:

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

After a blink and you'll miss it cold snap later this week its back to more wind, rain and the potential for further flooding, with deep a deep low centred north west of Scotland with high pressure to the east the low has now where to go quickly so it could hang around for a good few days

 

 

We could see hill snow in the north but for most its likely to be cold rain

 

 

Thanks to draztik for the pics in the moans and ramps thread a trend is starting to emerge for some milder temperatures into days 10 to 15 and 15 to 25 its only parts of Scotland and northern Ireland which stay slightly below normal out to February 20th

 

 

Edited January 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[tcc]

Not good this morning. Trop modelling is almost all falling into line this week for an atlantic driven pattern by Saturday.

 

This is of no surprise to me because the strat profile was never really in line with those trop models that were toying with a strong block. But the bad news to report now is that both yesterday and today the strat modelling of the vortex at 100hPa by ECM for next week has begun to move away from the idea of a weakening of the Canadian segment towards a strengthening of it instead.

 

Only one chart to post that makes the point clearly. This is as far ahead as 5th Feb and shows the majority of the energy of the stressed vortex gathering over Canada with a signal for troughing to our west. Result? A move towards a milder pattern after the chill of this week, with plenty more rain. And no snow for the south.

 

 

Time is running out for this winter. I am back to thinking that we may end up getting the tropospheric impact of the ongoing pressure on the vortex only once the core of our winter has passed.

 

Incidentally - those that mocked RJS for his alternative methods may care to consider the winter as a whole should February fail to deliver anything white. He did not get the window of cold in early January that he felt was a possibility... but so far, for a forecast released way back in time, he has been pretty sound (again.) We are all trying to learn to translate the weather using a myriad of complex signals - but his success is too high to dscount the idea notion that there is much we still dont understand... and much of that information may lie in less conventional areas of meteorological study.

 

Yes I believe this Winter is our 95-96, as back then that was a cold winter within a run of mild winters, this year it's the opposite! Hopefully next Winter we can have our snow back! Personally I haven't seen a single snow flake down here this Winter, even in the 90's we used to at least see snow falling once! I know Feb still to come but it just seems it's going to be one of those Winters when coldies don't get the breaks.

 

Looking at the ens it appears that the general consensus is for zonal conditions to restart from this weekend with yet more wind and rain. This winter will certainly be remembered, but for all the wrong reasons.

Edited January 27, 2014 by tcc

[Purga]

Coolish this week according to the ENS and all the models, then rising to above average temps into Feb and unsettled all the way through with little prospect of any snow away from the northern uplands for a while at first.

 

 

Flooding could become an issue again unfortunately for some areas.

 

Things could change of course but this is what is evident this morning.

[Frosty.]

5 movies sum up this winter so far, now 66 percent over..the first waterworld, the second..from hell, the third, rain man, the fourth, singin in the rain and last but not least, gone with the wind..frankly my dear..I don't see a 522 / 510 dam.The models show a relatively colder spell this week with winds backing NE'ly on wed / thurs, some ice, frost and scattered wintry flurries, then more rain, more gales and it could start as snow further east and north.

Edited January 27, 2014 by Frosty.

[tight isobar]

The "models" are "utter tosh" and why we/us try to forecast the weather a week away by looking at them is beyond belief ..in my 5 years of watching them they are hardly ever right at that distance so why we get so excited at what "they show" really baffles me ..trends, that's all they are good for so sit back, have a a cup of coffee and Winter will arrive when you least expect it, not when the models say it it will !

exactly my points in former posts.now the relentless westerly regime is modeled again(currently) with atlantic wash through, its as though its a CERTAIN outcomes , given" thats most likely the outcome its by no mean a set in stone. Thus model performance due mostly to northern hemispherical state, ie usa,.so again don't expect 6z viewing much differencing, however as again 12z/18z may have other ideas.i just atm think there is much to be desired cross mod, given NH state!

[carinthian]

Very frustrating model watching this winter for the many UK cold lovers. One wonders will they ever deliver the results most require, thats a E/NELY with penetraing frosts, snow showers with fibrous topped clouds all in a winter wonderland scene. Do not know what to advice to cheer you all up from your dire bog winter. Perhaps take a break from the daily model watching for a few days and see if mother nature can spring a surprise and put you all in the freezer. God you all need a rest from the cess pit conditions of the Noaks Ark of a winter so far.

Lets hope the models take another dramatic swing soon !

C

Edited January 27, 2014 by carinthian

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very frustrating model watching this winter for the many UK cold lovers. One wonders will they ever deliver the results most require, thats a E/NELY with penetraing frosts, snow showers with fibrous topped clouds all in a winter wonderland scene. Do not know what to advice to cheer you all up from your dire bog winter. Perhaps take a break from the daily model watching for a few days and see if mother nature can spring a surprise and put you all in the freezer. God you all need a rest from the cess pit conditions of the Noaks Ark of a winter so far.

Lets hope the models take another dramatic swing soon !

C

Hi C

Normally I try to get a 'fix' with my week's skiing in Austria, my friends flew out yesterday.  Due to the very close call my dad had last month I've had to say no.

My concern now is that there are hints of a pressure rise down the line over Europe and a SW/NE axis developing.  Early days but a potential set up to watch.  I will just enjoy this pretty chilly week ahead for now because just after that we look like having more trouble with the rain...it just keeps coming.

 

BFTP

Edited January 27, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[draztik]

Just an extension to Gavins post;

After a brief cold snap this week, it does seem we are headed towards a milder period into February. Troughing looks like being anchored off to our west into the medium term; surface temp anomaly charts show a warming trend, with a positive anomaly showing up in the ensembles. GEFS shows a positive anomaly into western Europe and even into parts of Scandinavia by this time period. Any negative anomaly is confined to areas east of Poland this morning.

GEFS temp anomaly day 10-15

The CFS ensembles, (caution, obviously), shows a strong positive anomaly for the continent into mid to longer term, including the UK.

Days 10-20, temp anomaly

While the ecm ext shows a similar trend, with the temp anomaly at the 5K level showing a warming trend into days 10-15, with a positive anomaly into western & eastern Europe, while the UK sees something more akin to average overall.

Temp anomaly (850) , days 10-15

Edited January 27, 2014 by draztik

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06hrs run follows on from the ECM trend, with the low phasing with another upstream and running away to the north, low pressure develops over the northern Med.

 

Theres still a small chance that some drier and a touch colder conditions might work back into wards the se of the UK later on.

 

Whilst those low heights remain over the northern Med there is always the chance that  some ridging will be sustained further north which might move nw, at the same time you've got troughing stuck to the west of the UK, its very much a stalemate which could produce yet more dire weather in terms of rain, more especially for western and nw areas.

Edited January 27, 2014 by nick sussex