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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Atlantic pushes threw on ecm at 168hrs but the pressure to the north east looks stronger?Thats my last straw clutch this winter btwPosted Image

 

 

The Canadian PV has knocked any block who has dared to come to the party for six, I am not sure this time will be any different. Posted Image

 

But we live in hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Yep, looking like a poor 12z suite all in all. No major surprises, deep cold following on from next weeks cold snap was always the long shot. Too much hope being placed in the system in the Atlantic sliding favourably. Not going to happen unfortunately as it interacts with the jet, deepens rapidly and has to head E / NE as a result. My expectation is that a shallower feature later on down the line will do the trick. Still hopefully for the 2nd week of Feb to be our time but much to play out before we get there.

 

One concern is that we don't end up with a Euro high though, ECM certainly toying with the idea.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

 

interesting NH profile at day 7. Coupled with the gefs day 7/8, if I hadn't seen any fi output, I'd be sure of a big block forming to our north/ne.

I would not mind betting that by next weekend there will be a lot of happycold weather fans in this thread relishing in what the NWP models areshowing.
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Azores suppressed at T216. Atlantic energy going South. Glimmer of light from the ECM. That ties in with jet stream posted earlier.

Posted Image

 

Edit:

Posted Image

 

Stuff that up your zonal.

Edited by StuieW
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

My major problem with the huge high to the east is that its too big and the weak point will always be the UK , its much better to have a smaller high located further west over Scandi than a huge Siberian high which as we've seen can look good on the charts but is incredibly difficult to get it to back far enough west.

 

You only have to look at February 2012; the same problem is still there, the Siberian high all sounds very nice but in terms of delivery of cold you can count on one hand the amount of times thats brought deep cold to the UK in the last 20 years.

 

We'd be better off with Scandi high and chunk of PV dropping into Russia than yet another load of drama over that Siberian high.

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Posted
  • Location: Noord Holland, 1m asl
  • Weather Preferences: winter: cold spells, summer: (thunder)storms
  • Location: Noord Holland, 1m asl

 

 

The trends forward are fine - that is all that matters as far as I am concernedPosted Image  With a possible SSW as we head into the start period of February watch those renewed pressure rises over NW Siberia.Posted Image

 

 

Thanks for clarifying Tamara, as always very helpful. Add to that the expected phase 7 of the QBO, hopefully in time to save the season!

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Its not expected to yetPosted Image

 

I do wonder in the nicest way if anyone is viewing this overall output with the bigger picture in mind?

 

There is too much obsession with surface detail and what it means for the UK , as stated this morning.

 

Exactly the same trends for me tonight. Change of profile over the Pacific -  Azores High weakening and being pulled west. Those heights to the NE are not going anywhere despite face value model attempts to remove them.

 

Too many people imo being suckered by intra output face value chopping and changingPosted Image .

 

The pattern is bound to flatten out somewhat in our neck of the woods for a time as the amplyfying pattern initially starts to move east from upstream...But with the Azores ridge despatched into the western atlantic its a matter of time before the squeeze begins. Pressure cannot rise over Europe in this situation and there is only one way this can head as far as I am concerned..

 

The trends forward are fine - that is all that matters as far as I am concernedPosted Image  With a possible SSW as we head into the start period of February watch those renewed pressure rises over NW Siberia.Posted Image

 

 

Another 30 or so days of winter plus March to get through, so there’s still time for a decent spell and enough possibilitys in the projections for something tasty to develop, but I suspect many had expectations that we were on the brink, so maybe jam tomorrow is not what some want to hear. For me nothing is set in stone the data is renewed every run so there is always the prospect of something worthwhile just out of sight, its why I like weather watching so much, the evolution never stops.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

ECM t240 you can almost feel the cold coming west if the run were

to continue.With reinforcing heights coming over the pole to add

more amplification and therefore further trough disruption to the

west with the massive Russian high also expanding west.The bitter

cold pooling under the high means it will not sink but has to

expand.I would like to have seen the charts four or five days on

from the t240 with what I would expect to see -15c -16c uppers

crossing the northsea to us and even colder still over Europe.

post-10506-0-00560800-1390763781_thumb.ppost-10506-0-67688300-1390763828_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

So Tamara you've been calling that a change will eventually occur for quite a while now; any approx dates within say a 3-day period?

Feb 7 to 10th, for example? or are we looking at later?

Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

More disappointment for coldies this evening with a stalemate scenario, the Atlantic hits a brick wall but the deep low is just too much for any decent trough disruption, the ECM at least is an improvement on this mornings run and if you keep higher pressure to the ne then theres always some hope of a better outcome.

 

Hope however doesn't get the sledges out of the garage, the models must love this hope business because the ECM is gearing up for round 37 of the winter so far looking at its T240hrs output!

Nick, todays low is deep, round and vigourous..its just smacked straight into the scandi block....that only a few days ago had it modelled to give way and sink south...we now know the low will sink south and slowly fill...BUT the block remains solid ....so we cant know for sure the next low will flatten it as progged....im stood by my bed on this the block will not budge..there is just too much cold embedded air keeping it like a concrete brick ..remember how the high was flattened all the time by the models last march and it just kept on smiling at us

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Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin

De ja vue.

Again for what seams about the millionth time we have a excellent northern hemisphere at 240 on the ECM,who getting back on the Ride?

Exaustion setting in .

To be honest I'm not expecting much to change this week ,the models have not tied in previously to what met office outlook stated ,again it's proved on the button ,something to note for all.

In terms of the pattern of the UKMO this evening ,the low once bulldozing in ,it looks like the cold air in Eastern Europe gets pull backed east ,Is this the tipping point that Ian F was talking about last week ,and then will end up back to where we have been wet and zonal again .

So if we are going to get cold out of this winter ,it has to come now from the strat warming ,even though one is forecasted effects may not be felt on the ground ,with the way the vigorous vortex has worked this winter ,this may be what's needed ,sound like a broken record but we have never come close to pressure in Greenland ,chino it's over to you ....

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire
Funny enough I can't find a mild chart for the end of the week, SG. Please can you show where you come to this conclusion from.

 

To back me up here is the T2 temp GFS chart for Friday

As I said, cool weather ahead of a rise in temperatures thereafter, I don't regard those 2m temperatures as anything other than cool. From Friday/Saturday the output shows an increase in temperatures from the west. Are you not seeing this?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

My major problem with the huge high to the east is that its too big and the weak point will always be the UK , its much better to have a smaller high located further west over Scandi than a huge Siberian high which as we've seen can look good on the charts but is incredibly difficult to get it to back far enough west.

 

You only have to look at February 2012; the same problem is still there, the Siberian high all sounds very nice but in terms of delivery of cold you can count on one hand the amount of times thats brought deep cold to the UK in the last 20 years.

 

We'd be better off with Scandi high and chunk of PV dropping into Russia than yet another load of drama over that Siberian high.

Totally agree, just what I was thinking - you look at Northern Hemispheric pattern and it looks quite good but then you think just how far away it is! - the shape of the HP too is what's keeping it exactly there, not the sausage shape that can occasionally migrate westwards. It really is acting as a 'buffer' and that seems to be it (at present). 

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Plenty more twists and turn to come yet I think. The general synoptic pattern hardly turns into a raging PV and southwesterly by day 4 does it. Heights remain to our north, north east and east and the Atlantic conveyor is struggling to blast through on a north east trajectory. Still plenty to play for IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

 

My major problem with the huge high to the east is that its too big and the weak point will always be the UK , its much better to have a smaller high located further west over Scandi than a huge Siberian high which as we've seen can look good on the charts but is incredibly difficult to get it to back far enough west. You only have to look at February 2012; the same problem is still there, the Siberian high all sounds very nice but in terms of delivery of cold you can count on one hand the amount of times thats brought deep cold to the UK in the last 20 years. We'd be better off with Scandi high and chunk of PV dropping into Russia than yet another load of drama over that Siberian high.

I really think this is the way forward which in my book would tie in nicelywith the srtat warming that will be taking place.The secret is getting apart of the vortex under the block (thinking 47 here). As for the block beingto big you would probably lose the western part of the block as it split.Getting way ahead of myself here considering its a 10day chart but I amconfident this is where our winter will come from this year.
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Its not expected to yetPosted Image

 

I do wonder in the nicest way if anyone is viewing this overall output with the bigger picture in mind?

 

There is too much obsession with surface detail and what it means for the UK , as stated this morning.

 

Exactly the same trends for me tonight. Change of profile over the Pacific -  Azores High weakening and being pulled west. Those heights to the NE are not going anywhere despite face value model attempts to remove them.

 

Too many people imo being suckered by intra output face value chopping and changingPosted Image .

 

The pattern is bound to flatten out somewhat in our neck of the woods for a time as the amplyfying pattern initially starts to move east from upstream...But with the Azores ridge despatched into the western atlantic its a matter of time before the squeeze begins. Pressure cannot rise over Europe in this situation and there is only one way this can head as far as I am concerned..

 

The trends forward are fine - that is all that matters as far as I am concernedPosted Image  With a possible SSW as we head into the start period of February watch those renewed pressure rises over NW Siberia.Posted Image

 

Posted Image

I think if one looks back through January and Tamaras posts,she has always said that nothing spectacular would show until at least February and that this week is a bonus.Slow burner has always been the theme.

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Nick, todays low is deep, round and vigourous..its just smacked straight into the scandi block....that only a few days ago had it modelled to give way and sink south...we now know the low will sink south and slowly fill...BUT the block remains solid ....so we cant know for sure the next low will flatten it as progged....im stood by my bed on this the block will not budge..there is just too much cold embedded air keeping it like a concrete brick ..remember how the high was flattened all the time by the models last march and it just kept on smiling at us

The problem Bryan is that for an undercut a sinking low over the UK won't deliver, the interest over the last few days was for any low to disrupt to the west of the UK thereby keeping some areas with a chance of a snow as that happened because that wouldn't remove the embedded cold, yes you might well see a similar scenario played out because the models have overdone the demise of the block but in terms of a slider we needed to see a much shallower feature, that low runs east out of the west Atlantic hits the PV and blows up, this deepening pulls a lot of warmer air into the circulation, theres still a chance the models might weaken it , we'll have to wait and see but generally for a decent undercut you need to see the more elongated troughing.

 

Later on the ECM is determined to drag another load of drama out of the blocking scenario, I think coldies will soon be treated for exhaustion! Much can be made of March snow but last year was an exceptional event, we'll soon be into February so if blocking is going to deliver it needs to get a move on.

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