Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Frosty.]

. 3 months without a cold snap at our latitude is really something noteworthy.

I can think of lots of expletives to describe this winter..noteworthy is not one of them.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Frosty.

[Jason M]

I can think of lots of expletive deletives to describe this winter..noteworthy is not one of them.

It's the pleasure pain principle in action. The US gets the pleasure and we get the pain as a result :-)

[Mr Frost]

Winter 2013/2014 has been so disappointing and really quite depressing in so many ways! The chances of anything significantly wintry have now surely passed, it's just not going to happen this winter! So, the sooner we get into Spring and forget about it the better. March 15th 2012 - I remember cutting my hedge in clear blue skies and 20C We can only hope.

Ah, but I remember a post from March 17th 2013 that I posted...you just never know what could happen.Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....Posted by Mr Frost on 17 March 2013 - 19:12The latest Met office forecast for my region...Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:Very cold with further snow showers on Tuesday, prolonged at first with strong easterly winds and drifting snow. Becoming drier with some sun mid-week, winds easing, but severe frosts inland.Issued at: 1600 on Sun 17 Mar 2013It really is amazing to be reading this on March 17 2013! It would be more suited to mid Winter.I look forward to some warm, dry and sunny weather in April...hopefully!

[Jason M]

Also, in defence if ECM, because GFS gives us full access to its ensemble suite everyone this morning has ignored the opp run. Had it been ECM we would not have been able to put it into correct context. Even if GFS is a weaker model from a forum perspective access to the GEFS makes it as useful as ECM and maybe more so.

[weather eater]

Might I suggest an alternative way to look at the models this morning, forget the hunt for cold it may or may not happen I don’t think an answer can be deduced from the current modelling. The real story is for less wet weather after this weekend and with the possibility that HP may become more of an influence as we move into week two, given the state of affairs and that alone would be some cheer for soggy Britain.

Edited February 13, 2014 by weather eater

[phil nw.]

The Ensembles on both models have been consistently in favour of a continuation of the westerlies it must be said.

Certainly some of the operational charts have shown some ridging from the Atlantic and this looks like the way forward later next week as the strength of the vortex to the nw starts to ease.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

giving some respite between less vigorous lows although we will still have frontal systems coming across from time to time.

 

No real signal for any blocking further north or north east other than the odd operational chart at present but of course at he back end of Winter as the vortex will inevitably start to warm then this is something that is more likely as gaps start to appear over the pole.

It is just not looking probable on current outputs.

Edited February 13, 2014 by phil nw.

[Weather Boy]

0Z GFS was only slightly an outlier.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140213/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Still considering the wildly different ECM runs and the 0Z GFS I feel its premature to write off the chance of an E,ly before Feb is out.

 

I would like to add something to the poster who referred to me as hopecasting. Trust me I have far more important things in life going on right now than a few flakes of snow. Im posting on here and continuing with my forecasting because its proves to be a nice distraction from my daily woes! I do not allow my bias to affectment my judgement when forecasting and continue to use instincts.

Hi TEITS

 

You have called it correctly from range many times before and your comments are very encouraging

 

But........

 

...I am probably not alone in saying that I would find it helpful if you would give us a few nuggets on what your instinct is based on.  it seems to me that the signals for a freeze for the latter part of this month are even worse than the failed easterlies earlier in the winter and they, er, failed!

 

Look at it this way:

 

- We have no strat warming;

 

- Little ensemble support

 

- A GFS (which for all its admitted flaws has called it well this winter) not backing it except occasionally in FI

 

- Little if any teleconnections support that I am aware of.

 

Given all this, I'm struggling to see why your instinct is telling you that we are going to have an easterly.  Could you give us a few pointers as to why you see it this way?

 

Yours, straw firmly clutched,

 

WB

 

P.S - Sorry to hear about your "woes" and if this is connected to your health, get well soon.  Keep at the weather interest and keep posting!

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 13th 2014.

 

All models show a showery westerly flow across the UK today with wintry showers on hills and in the North. Tonight sees a new low developing to the SW and spreading NE across Ireland and the North tomorrow bringing renewed heavy rain and severe gales to all areas tomorrow. As it moves North through tomorrow night the UK will again be affected by a very showery westerly flow with the risk of hill snow remaining in a cold and blustery wind. On Sunday a showery start to the day will lessen as a ridge moves across from the West ahead of the next less deep Low pressure which arrives over the South on Monday with rain and showers and hill snow across the UK to start next week.

 

GFS then shows the remainder of next week as rather changeable with rain at times as weakening Low pressure areas spill in from the West delivering rain at times and snow over Northern hills. Longer term the weather remains and becomes somewhat colder still with some dry and bright weather with always the risk of rain, sleet and snow around as pressure falls slack over the British Isles.

 

UKMO ends it's run this morning showing next Wednesday with a slack and chilly Westerly flow across the UK with a trough sliding in from the West bringing some rain across the South and maybe snow in the North as it bumps into colder air.

 

GEM today has already brought a trough across the UK by Wednesday leading to the rest of the run showing breezy Westerly winds and further rain bearing systems across the UK in largely average temperatures.

 

NAVGEM closes it's run with Westerly winds well in control still with rain and showers at times with the heaviest rain more likely towards the NW in average temperatures once more.

 

ECM today carries a ridge across the UK through the middle of next week with two or three welcome days of dry weather across the South which would be very welcome. However, by the weekend the weather slides downhill again as Atlantic troughs bear down on the UK from the West with more rain edging slowly East 

 

The ECM Mean Charts today have limited support to the operational for the midweek period next week but are less supportive of anything more than a transient ridge as Low pressure is still shown with a strong foothold over the UK weather positioned just to the West of Scotland with SW winds and rain at times likely for all again by next weekend after a brief respite midweek.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Ensembles are not at all supportive of the operational's colder solution towards the end of it's run instead opting for very unsettled conditions continuing with rain and strong winds at times in a strong Atlantic influence of Westerly winds.

 

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow trying to move north and weaken after this week which it does succeed in doing briefly before it strengthens again later and edges South again in an undulating form through Week 2.

 

In Summary after the next powerful depression tomorrow and Saturday there looks certain to be at least some moderation in the weather as we move out of the weekend and into next week. This may not be that apparent early in the week as a new Low will bring further rain but the winds will be less strong. Then towards midweek pressure may rise sufficiently across the South at least to give a brief drier interlude. However, the overall pattern remains unsettled and there looks plenty of scope in the later period for the Atlantic to return in one form or another delivering yet more rain and some windy weather too with temperatures probably recovering from the rather chilly levels currently to something nearer the average and maybe a little above at times in the South.

[jimben]

I can think of lots of expletives to describe this winter..noteworthy is not one of them.

 

Considering what has been occurring this winter synoptically and meteorologically, noteworthy, is about as accurate description as one could use

[North-Easterly Blast]

Considering what has been occurring this winter synoptically and meteorologically, noteworthy, is about as accurate description as one could use

Well, winter 2013-14 has been noteworthy for how devoid of cold weather it has been, It has been almost as equally noteworthy for lack of cold weather than the winter of 1962-63 / 1947 were for the persistent deep freezes.  Something has gone very wrong with this winter, like it did in 2006-07, 2007-08, 1988-89, 1989-90, 1997-98.

[SMU]

I feel like we have a man down this winter... The ECM is still the model of chice but in the last 2 days in integrity has been tested and indeed it hasnt come out the other side very well...

In an otherwise awful winter thats just the cherry on the cake.

Ive almost resorted to the UKMO and JMA these days

I havent hoist the white flag yet but its flying at half mast today out of resprct for the ECM

Over and out

[snow freak]

Considering what has been occurring this winter synoptically and meteorologically, noteworthy, is about as accurate description as one could use

noteworthy maybe in terms of rain and wind but incredibly depressing and annoying too.

[Troubleatmill]

I feel like we have a man down this winter... The ECM is still the model of chice but in the last 2 days in integrity has been tested and indeed it hasnt come out the other side very well...In an otherwise awful winter thats just the cherry on the cake.Ive almost resorted to the UKMO and JMA these daysI havent hoist the white flag yet but its flying at half mast today out of resprct for the ECMOver and out

 

Poor across the board, like you say we normally rely on the ECM for a bit of stability as its rarely goes for extremes of what could happen so it is normally a safe bet to be there or there abouts. Prety sure the unheard of weather we have had this winter will of thrown the Models somewhat, so many curve balls to contend with.

 

it was hopefull until last night when it became clear that getting any block setting up to give us a taste of winter is like like trying to build a sand castle where the waves break. The tide is slowly turning but it will soon be getting too late in the day for wanting to play on the beach  

Edited February 13, 2014 by Nicholas B

[bluearmy]

I feel like we have a man down this winter... The ECM is still the model of chice but in the last 2 days in integrity has been tested and indeed it hasnt come out the other side very well...In an otherwise awful winter thats just the cherry on the cake.Ive almost resorted to the UKMO and JMA these daysI havent hoist the white flag yet but its flying at half mast today out of resprct for the ECMOver and out

 

doesnt that depend on where you draw the line on the model steve?  i'm sure if ecm only showed us its output to day 7 (which used to be the case), it would take less flak. apart from the december failed northerly when the op kept the inland track too long (down to T96), it has performed well this season.  if you are looking at op charts after day 6 then you are bound to be let down by all models. the ens mean from ecm has been even more reliable (as has gefs) - which in a generally mobile pattern is easier to do.  martin has offered unbiased assessment of the actual output day in, day out and i can remember only once when he jumped aboard the wintry wagon.

[Troubleatmill]

doesnt that depend on where you draw the line on the model steve?  i'm sure if ecm only showed us its output to day 7 (which used to be the case), it would take less flak. apart from the december failed northerly when the op kept the inland track too long (down to T96), it has performed well this season.  if you are looking at op charts after day 6 then you are bound to be let down by all models. the ens mean from ecm has been even more reliable (as has gefs) - which in a generally mobile pattern is easier to do.  martin has offered unbiased assessment of the actual output day in, day out and i can remember only once when he jumped aboard the wintry wagon.

 

Totally agree that the ens ECM/GEFS has been the only way of looking at what is likely this winter as they have remained unsettled throughout and thats whats happend, best we have had is maybe 1/3 at any one time going for something different 

 

Sods law that the GFS 06z continues with its 00z cold theme in its operational!

Edited February 13, 2014 by Nicholas B

[Frosty.]

Considering what has been occurring this winter synoptically and meteorologically, noteworthy, is about as accurate description as one could use

I agree with steve murr..this winter has been CR*P

[Tim Bland]

Nice 06z!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=324&code=0&mode=1

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the 6z continues from it;s ooz with a pressure build, slightly better than the 00z in the fact the PV is further West , only looking out to +240 for obvious reasons,, but there does seem to be a window as the Atlantic get's weaker for a pressure rise , let's just hope we can get it far enough West. 

[Yarmy]

We're back in the game!

 

[Troubleatmill]

I agree with steve murr..this winter has been CR*P

 

 

Kind of makes you grateful that we cant forecast past 5 days or we would of been suicidal back in December knowing what was coming....go figure what we are all trying to do in the model/strat threads 

Edited February 13, 2014 by Nicholas B

[TEITS]

So despite the 0Z being wildly an outlier the 06Z does produce a cold E,ly in the end.

 

Shall explain later why I feel an E,ly is on its way and the key period is much earlier around +96 to +120.

[Purga]

The trouble is it's the GFS 06z (no good) and it's also the far reaches of FI so it simply won't happen.

 

Will it???

[Frosty.]

Kind of makes you grateful that we cant forecast past 5 days or we would of been suicidal back in December knowing what was coming....go figure what we are all trying to do in the model/strat threads 

I have lost count of the number of times I have posted wintry charts this winter and not one of them has verified, every single one has been a flop..I think our luck will change soon but it's nearly spring now, so it's bound to change.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I am wondering if maybe GEM and ECM had the right idea , but just brought it in a little to early, we often see Models drop something and come back to it .... Maybe we should use law of averages in thinking surely we will get one Cold spell this year , and Northerly's and even Easterly's are more common than you think , granted they haven't always got -20 uppers , but when I lived in the Midlands , we had a couple of Easterly's most years over the Winter as a whole , and if you include March as well then almost every year. 

 

Hang in there , it is not to late for settled Snow yet , remember Easter Sunday 2009. 

 

[The Beast From The East]

So despite the 0Z being wildly an outlier the 06Z does produce a cold E,ly in the end. Shall explain later why I feel an E,ly is on its way and the key period is much earlier around +96 to +120.

Give us a clue :)I remember last year or the year b4 you said it was to do with sea guls I believe ?? And you was correct on that ocasion.Hope your keeping well and always enjoy reading your posts.