Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[IDO]

The GEM at T192:  

 

The GEFS at the same time do not have one member with a HLB off the east coast of Iceland. There are two UK MLBs and one Scandi High, the rest are split 70-30 zonal and transient ridging respectively. The mean:

 

 

So no sign of any support from the GFS re the blocking from GEM.

 

In the shorter term, the mean for Saturday's storm:  

 

Members include:    

 

Another nasty one.

[SMU]

Wow ECM 120 chart.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECH1-120.GIF?11-0

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECH1-144.GIF?11-0

 

that's as bad as the 120 was good....

[Mucka]

Hmmm JMA, heavy snow for much of Northern England?

 

Edited February 11, 2014 by Mucka

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM crashed trying to pull a cold maneuver

[SMU]

We have a split tonight- as usual

 

its the JMA & UKMO & GEM V ECM & then the GFS somewhere.

 

a lot of snow for the North though if the JMA & UKMO verify.

What a mess.

 

S

[Mucka]

Very interesting JMA run, cold/chilly and likely snowy for the North through the mid term and ends here.

 

Edited February 11, 2014 by Mucka

[weather eater]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECH1-144.GIF?11-0

 

that's as bad as the 120 was good....

Sums up this winter, blink and the darn thing has refused the first hurdle.

[Mucka]

We have a split tonight- as usual

 

its the JMA & UKMO & GEM V ECM & then the GFS somewhere.

 

a lot of snow for the North though if the JMA & UKMO verify.

What a mess.

 

S

 

 

ECM Op is just on another of its mild rampages from the mid term it has made its own since the upgrade - toward the top end of the London ensembles after the cold blip is my guess.

That said I have mentioned the Azores high ridging over the UK as a possibility and even I would take milder if it came with more settled conditions even if it were more the reserve of the South.

Edited February 11, 2014 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

Sums up this winter, blink and the darn thing has refused the first hurdle.

That's a bizarre transition from T120 to T144hrs, I think the ECM may have lost the plot there and goes into my SSO(suspicious synoptic outcome) column as unlikely to verify as shown.

[Tim Bland]

Unfortunately the 12z ECM is very similar to the 00z, so whatever spin we put on the outlook it is very likely to be near to the outcome I'm afraid

[IDO]

ECM at T216:  

 

More respective of the ECM mean, T216 this morning: 

 

 

And also the GFS mean: 

 

The GEM looks out of kilter and the JMA doing what it did with the non-slider of a week or two ago.

 

The most likely scenario, as the ens have been consistent on for run after run, is a slacker zonal flow with intermittent ridging.

Edited February 11, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Purga]

After showing a bit of cold potential ECM goes pretty mild for a while

A flat zonal pattern ensues with at least some relief from the drenchings in the south of the country

[weather eater]

That's a bizarre transition from T120 to T144hrs, I think the ECM may have lost the plot there and goes into my SSO(suspicious synoptic outcome) column as unlikely to verify as shown.

Fishy indeed and it is flat as a pancake in its latter stages, I feel I'm dreaming has it well summed up "slacker zonal flow with intermittent ridging." and while it may get me more flak I suspect the GFS is not far of the mark. The GEM is great but I'd bet my house it won't happen, the UKMO shapes up well but its 144hr output never fills me with confidence.

[bobbydog]

That's a bizarre transition from T120 to T144hrs, I think the ECM may have lost the plot there and goes into my SSO(suspicious synoptic outcome) column as unlikely to verify as shown.

 

let's just say (hypothetically) that it does verify as shown. it ends with a very different pattern to what we have now.

 

now-

 

 

the PV has shifted considerably. what happens after this?

 

[Jason M]

let's just say (hypothetically) that it does verify as shown. it ends with a very different pattern to what we have now.

now-

the PV has shifted considerably. what happens after this?

It rains? :-)

I agree with the view that GEM is unlikely. You would expect at least a nod from some of the GEFS.

Will be interesting to see if the GEM ensembles back up the opp when they update.

Edited February 11, 2014 by Jason M

[nick sussex]

Fishy indeed and it is flat as a pancake in its latter stages, I feel I'm dreaming has it well summed up "slacker zonal flow with intermittent ridging." and while it may get me more flak I suspect the GFS is not far of the mark. The GEM is great but I'd bet my house it won't happen, the UKMO shapes up well but its 144hr output never fills me with confidence.

I think the GEM solution can probably be kicked out as its been useless at that range this winter, the JMA looks more plausible, the GEFS has been criticized for the central USA by NCEP so I'd give those a wide berth. The ECM operational run moves a chunk of low heights across Norway this suppresses the small ridge to the north and isn't supported by any of the other operationals at the T120 to T144hr range.The UKMO is similar to the JMA, I think that combo is the more likely outcome.

[cooling climate]

There seems to be a lot of potential (yes that word again) around the t120 to t168 mark for

amplification to the north. Until the models agree on the amount of amplification it is hard to

judge what will happen beyond this time frame. Another 24hours modeling should give a

clearer picture as to where we are headed in the next week or so.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

They haven't looked at the ECM or 06GFS then.....UKMO has a very nasty system, be interesting to see what comes out of this.  I doubt it'll be over then, more to come I feel around middle next week too.

 

BFTP

 

Although it would be nice to see UKMO, GEM and some extent JMA I feel that we're up the garden path...for at least longevity or change.  Posted above in media headlines thread...I'm anticipating another storm around middle next week on towards weekend.

 

BFTP

[nick sussex]

Theres been some modification to the UKMO raw output on the T72hrs fax chart, unusual to see the UKMO making such a large change at that range, the low is weaker and further to the sw.

 

 

 

Given the position of the low there unless theres some rapid deepening then its track should be adjusted further south on tonights T96hrs fax chart.

Edited February 11, 2014 by nick sussex

[weather eater]

I think the GEM solution can probably be kicked out as its been useless at that range this winter, the JMA looks more plausible, the GEFS has been criticized for the central USA by NCEP so I'd give those a wide berth. The ECM operational run moves a chunk of low heights across Norway this suppresses the small ridge to the north and isn't supported by any of the other operationals at the T120 to T144hr range.The UKMO is similar to the JMA, I think that combo is the more likely outcome.

It could be Nick, I guess the story of the winter so far has been no matter what we think may happen or whatever the models have shown from time to time the Atlantic just steams back in, I just have a hunch that it’s going to do it to us again and desperately hope I’m wrong. Like it, loathe, find it interesting or not, this winter has been extraordinary, I can’t remember anything like it. 

[bluearmy]

You wouldnt say that the gem op is without support from its ens.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday February 11th 2014.

 

All models continue to show a very unsettled outlook for some time to come with a showery and cold Westerly flow tonight with wintry showers, heavy in the West with some snowfall over the hills. Tomorrow shows a deepening Low moving NE over Ireland through the day with SW gales and heavy rains sweeping NE over the UK through the day followed by 36-48hrs worth of strong Westerly winds and further blustery wintry showers. Then on Friday another very deep depression moves NE across the South with very heavy rain and hill snow in the North before the weekend turns back into a showery and chilly one with wintry showers on all higher ground and a cold West wind.

 

GFS then shows next week as unsettled too with bands of rain and showers move East across the UK with strong winds continuing to blow from the West or SW with temperatures recovering somewhat with time.

 

UKMO tonight concludes with Low pressure centred over Southern England next Monday with rain and showers continuing over the UK though with less wind than of late.

 

GEM tonight shows a complete change next week with High pressure developing to the North and East and allowing a cold Easterly flow with the chance of sleet and snow in places with frost at night especially in the East and South.

 

NAVGEM keeps unsettled weather going at the start of next week as Monday's Low fades away to be replaced by SW winds and another trough moving across on Tuesday with more rain through the day.

 

ECM tonight does offer some respite towards the middle of next week as a strong ridge from the Azores High builds NE towards Southern England by midweek next week bringing a dry period with bright and sunny spells in light winds and some frost at night. It isn't shown to last long though before the Atlantic depression machine churns out more unsettled weather gradually moving down from the NW well before the end of the week.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight from this morning's effort with the bias continuing to be one of Low pressure to the North and NW with a WSW flow over the UK with rain or showers continuing at times. It should be noted though that the improvement shown at around 168hrs on the operational is supported to some degree before the deterioration of the aforementioned charts come to pass.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show strong support for a warming trend from early next week. What it doesn't show is an end to rainfall for any length of time with further rain shown throughout the run from many members indicative of an Atlantic based pattern continuing.

 

The Jet Stream Forecast remains constant for the time being with the flow continuing to blow strongly to the South of the UK. The flow still shows some indication of tilting more SW to NE over the UK with time as pressure builds somewhat to the South.

 

In Summary tonight there still seems very little conclusive evidence of any to be relied upon dry weather anytime soon. It does seem probable that next week will see less severe weather over the UK with more standard February weather which at any other time would go unmentioned but as these are not ordinary times any rain next week will be far from welcome and most places will see at least some meaning that the clean up operation in flood stricken areas could be painfully slow. For coldies there is an olive branch from GEM which if verified would bring a wintry period with the possibility of some snow on an Easterly breeze but it seems something of a shot in the dark in the grand scheme of other output.

[Cloud 10]

You wouldnt say that the gem op is without support from its ens.

 

Any news from the extended ecm ensembles BA?

 

Just wondering "what happened next" post 240 hrs.

 

[bluearmy]

Any news from the extended ecm ensembles BA?

 

Just wondering "what happened next" post 240 hrs.

 

EDH101-240.gif

Too early cloud. Weatherbell is usually slow to update. The dutch extended appear to show similar to the 00z run. Perhaps a 20% chance of wintry in the 10/15 period.