Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[tight isobar]

Certainly, the models throwing up some possible sting in the tail winter solution. With just a sweet pick of quite some, post. Northern hemisphericaly personaly would have to say it at this point a worthy possibility. We have been on the cusp several times this season, however with vortex climb down of sort, and jet rage showing sign of obvious slacking. Then it could be consequential for late winter freeze......perhaps, !?.after the winter thus far, anything must be considered. ?.interesting to see this evolve.

[bobbydog]

No Model has been right for us sadly as we are just a mere grain of sand on the map.

Im not quite sure why you are inferring the ECM has been depicting repetitive blocking outcomes, they have been very few & far between from the ECM,- they just stick in your mind more, by the mere fact that you see 4 runs of the GFS daily - it just leaves a deeper imprint on your memory for longer.

 

None of the cold UK day 8/9 or 10 patterns have verified for the UK.

 

ECM has been closer to getting the anomaly heights correct, but at the end of the day the shortwave patterns haven't delivered for the UK.

 

Looking out to day 8-10 we can only look at the long wave patterns- no point in painting to much detail for the shortwave ones- & on that note the GFS & ECM have totally different solutions for the 18th of Feb.......

 

S

 

 

is your edit aimed at me steve? i didn't actually mention the ECM or "blocking scenarios" in my post

[SMU]

is your edit aimed at me steve? i didn't actually mention the ECM or "blocking scenarios" in my post

Well yes, as you sort of inferred the ECM has presented any zonal weather, when infact excluding the 2 or 3 times its gone for blocking at day 6-10 the ECM has been cr*p zonal all the way...

 

The ECM was the first to pick up the COLD signal a couple of weeks ago with THIS chart-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010512/ECH1-144.GIF?12  note this was the start of the last run at COLD-  note a ridge developed over Ireland-  ECM got it nailed ^^

 

GFS was pushing through East-

 

In the end though whilst the GFS caught up with the Track - both models suddenly increased the depth of the low & the cold was nudged back to the near continent.

 

Again another fail from the GFS in the day 8-10 area but both models failed at the short term.

 

If this projection goes to this winters form, the ECM & JMA will be right at day 8-10 tonight, the GFS will catch up for around 8 runs at day 6 & 7, then something will appear at day 4/5 & ruin the whole lot....

 

S

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

All eyes on 18z chaps. Will we see an agreement with the latest ECM output, or will the GFS tell it where to stick it! 

Of course most importantly now, where will this storms latest track be?

 

Question answered - Further North by quite a distance!

Edited February 10, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[tight isobar]

is your edit aimed at me steve? i didn't actually mention the ECM or "blocking scenarios" in my post

with respect with monumental exacting mass pv dominated land mass usa/canada.its becoming obvious to comply with our dire winter, regarding fired jet stream and progressive LPS one after another.howeverits been knife edge as regards where shortwaves)lps ) exact, in playing an integral part of our winter season. And thats the point, some mods have WAY off on others in match and exact, !I

[Frosty.]

LOL Gfs 12z says winter is over and I'm still waiting for it to start..I'm cheering for the Ecm tonight :-)

[weather eater]

GFS

 

 

GFS trumped ECM.... lolol-

 

ECM has tarnished its reputation this winter with creating  blocking scenarios at the outer reaches of FI- Ie Day 9 & 10- sometimes even at day 7/8.

 

However when you remember the run up to the last missed cold spell the GFS was MILES & MILES away from the correct solution where as the Euros trumped the GFS.

 

1nd of Jan 168

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=1&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&carte=1

GFS has the store into the Northern Atlantic

 

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010100/ECH1-168.GIF?00

 

Massive inland runner - storm over Canada...

 

Actual outcome

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014010800-0-6.png

 

ECM SPOT ON for days. GFS miles away.

infact if you open the actual outcome & the ECM 168 you would think its the same chart.

 

 

Theres always selective memory when it comes to the GFS - also perhaps because it runs 4 a day is does actually get the right outcome.

However the GFS did perform better than the fail before Christmas-

 

Statistically for the NH the ECM is tops-

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

GFS forth - so really your faith in the GFS is misplaced....

 

F./F/S

 

I don't know why I bother on here.

 

 

the problem this winter is that ALL the fantastic day 10 charts or even day 6 charts for failed to deliver FOR THE UK, for others though they did deliver as per ECM, like the other day with 40cm of snow over in Denmark etc.

Nothing selective about it, I'm sure if you look across the whole winter you would find that the GFS has performed pretty well and been better at times than the ECM, the last couple of weeks for a start off. Besides its blocking patterns the ECM seems to want to overdo and it’s not just been his year either. Remember 2010 the GFS picked it up that memorable spell way before the ECM, the ECM flapped about all over the place. We all know the ECM out performs the GFS in the verification stats globally I certainly would not dream of saying otherwise, but it’s not a case of, always out performs it in every scenario and if we lull ourselves into the idea that it does, then we end up with a blinkered view. Personally I don’t buy into the either or method of thinking that seems to pervade society, so in terms of models it’s not either the GFS or the ECM it’s more a case of which one has performed best in our back yard at any given time, granted its more likely to be the ECM but not to such a degree that the GFS should always be discounted.

Edited February 10, 2014 by weather eater

[Cloud 10]

I think there is some promise in this. I saw a chart today where the majority of the PV was over Siberia (sure I did). If so then yes, a possibility. I will look for the chart.

 

Edit:

Something along the lines of this:

 

The stratospheric polar vortex does indeed look like relocating towards Siberia,so a winding down

of the Atlantic driven pattern looks like a realistic possibility,although what would replace it is up for grabs.

 

[bobbydog]

Well yes, as you sort of inferred the ECM has presented any zonal weather, when infact excluding the 2 or 3 times its gone for blocking at day 6-10 the ECM has been cr*p zonal all the way...

 

The ECM was the first to pick up the COLD signal a couple of weeks ago with THIS chart-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010512/ECH1-144.GIF?12  note this was the start of the last run at COLD-  note a ridge developed over Ireland-  ECM got it nailed ^^

 

GFS was pushing through East-

 

In the end though whilst the GFS caught up with the Track - both models suddenly increased the depth of the low & the cold was nudged back to the near continent.

 

Again another fail from the GFS in the day 8-10 area but both models failed at the short term.

 

If this projection goes to this winters form, the ECM & JMA will be right at day 8-10 tonight, the GFS will catch up for around 8 runs at day 6 & 7, then something will appear at day 4/5 & ruin the whole lot....

 

S

 

nope, i didn't infer anything. i merely commented on the GFS as being often referred to as "default zonal" the ECM may have shown similar but i didnt mention it nor infer anything to do with any "blocking scenarios" it may have shown

[SMU]

Nothing selective about it, I'm sure if you look across the whole winter you would find that the GFS has performed pretty well and been better at times than the ECM, the last couple of weeks for a start off. Besides its blocking patterns the ECM seems to want to overdo and it’s not just been his year either. Remember 2010 the GFS picked it up that memorable spell way before the ECM, the ECM flapped about all over the place. We all know the ECM out performs the GFS in the verification stats globally I certainly would not dream of saying otherwise, but it’s not a case of, always out performs it in every scenario and if we lull ourselves into the idea that it does, then we end up with a blinkered view. Personally I don’t buy into the either or method of thinking that seems to pervade society, so in terms of models it’s not either the GFS or the ECM it’s more a case of which one has performed best in our back yard at any given time, granted its more likely to be the ECM but not to such a degree that the GFS should always be discounted.

 

I will concede that the GFS outcomes have been better this year- but it takes a record +AO for the GFS to verify....

 

I just wish you would populate your posts with facts-

 

21st November 2010- is the day it started ( start of the Greenland high)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2010112112/ECH1-0.GIF?12

 

ECM at 192 8 days before

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2010111312/ECH1-192.GIF?12  perfect WAA over Greenland & then 168 the next day-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2010111412/ECH1-168.GIF?12 Brilliant accuracy

 

GFS 192 8 days before

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111306-0-192.png?6 a bit flat but in the ball park

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111406-0-168.png?6 Much better

 

So you would say the ECM was more accurate 9/10 GFS 8/10

 

If your going to cite specific times then at least get the facts correct.

 

But, going to the first paragraph- the ECM has gone from my 10/10 model this winter with minimal silly errors to just 8/10 with many blocking errors with the GFS about 6/10 - UKMO 7.5/10- JMA 7/10

 

All it means is where as before we could put confidence in the ECM at 168 with some foundation, now we don't have 1 model that we can really place our trust in- however because it does verify number 1 we always have to review the ECM first.

 

If it was formula 1 drivers the differences are I would say

 

ECM Vettel ( BOOOO)

UKMO Hamilton

JMA Alonso

 

GFS webber - sometimes has his day but most of the time off the pace in forth......

 

The GEM is like Grojean.....

 

S

[bluearmy]

why do you think that pretty well all the posters who are recognised as being the most informed on this forum from a technical perspective rate the ecm above the gfs ??? by all means, you can slate whatever model you wish but to state that gfs has outperformed ecm, or any other major model for that matter is to rewrite history.  the facts is that all the model output should be considered (unless its a clear outlier) and then a rounded assessment made.  since the december failed northerly when ecm op was consistently wrong off the eastern seaboard, i have taken a more measure view of ecm's reliability and paid more attention to gfs. however, all this has done is reinforce how often gfs is plain wrong within a 7 day timeframe.

 

delighted to see steve show the urban myth surrounding the onset of winter 2010 is just that. however we have been here before and it still gets peddled !!  

Edited February 10, 2014 by bluearmy

[Mucka]

Why don't we have a bit of fun.

 

Ive framed the 192 charts for use in 8 days.

 

 

ECM 12z

1002ECM2.jpg

 

JMA  12z

1002JMA.gif

 

GFS  12z

1002GFS.png

 

As you can see ECM & JMA go for a ridge building North in the atlantic. & Cold building to the East...

 

12z GFS says winters over for Northern Europe, ECM + JMA says game on.

 

S

 

That's a bit unfair really Steve because although GFS 12 z was ridiculously flat, its 00z run had a better ridge than ECM 00z for the same time frame - it is just the models trying to come to grips with the pattern and nothing to say ECM 00z won't be flatter while GFS 00z won't be more amplified again.

As always taking a blend of all the output (including known biases) will give us more chance of spotting the likely outcome.

 

I think a bigger fail for GFS may be the strength and track of the low on the 15th which it wants deepen and send further North than ECM but more especially UKMO and obviously this has implications to our weather with UKMO giving a chance of snow to the North and West of the low but GFS bringing another storm with heavy rain,

 

 

I was quite surprised it took the MetO so long to mention the S word for Northern England (not till this afternoon in fact) when the models were suggesting it being a possibility for quite some time. Even so, I dare say a lot of people will still be disappointed because snow to low levels is more likely to fall as showers following the main band and showers are obviously more hit and miss.

[winterof79]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021018/gfs-1-126.png?18

 

Looks colder then 12z at same time north of UK

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021012/gfs-1-138.png?12

Edited February 10, 2014 by winterof79

[SMU]

I hope it goes further south Mucka- im staying @ Buxton on Friday night

 

Wax that sledge ........

 

S 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Chaps lets move on please from this debate it happens every year. Rather than debate tirelessly why not research it like Steve has done lots of times. Figures don't lie.

Let's discuss the potential weather coming up and keep this ongoing debate for another thread .

[SMU]

18z now more or less inline with the ECM & UKMO at 144

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021018/gfsnh-0-150.png?18

 

S

[Mucka]

I hope it goes further south Mucka- im staying @ Buxton on Friday night

 

Wax that sledge ........

 

S

 

 

Really?

I used to drive down there when it was likely there would be snow on the hills but not to low levels, well there and the snake pass or other Penine routes.

Once I was in the hills and two 3rds the way up a fairly steep hill with a sheer drop behind and lost traction but when I applied the breaks the car just carried on slowly sliding backward. It was only when I managed to stop panicking and throttle gently in second gear I arrested the slide to oblivion and managed to get back safely.

Friday looks very exciting for that part of the World if it does track further South.

Is that why you are going or is not weather related?

 

Best post a token chart before th mods get on my case. 

 

 

More amplified than the 12z but not ECM level amplification.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Mucka

[cooling climate]

Out to t180 on wetterzentrale and certainly much more amplified than the 12z and

a lot closer now to the ECM run earlier.

[Mucka]

Yes surprisingly good agreement between GFS 18z and ECM 12z, and if we take account of GFS's more progressive nature (it does have things a little further East and a more vigorous low waiting in the Atlantic) then we could say there is cross model support building for a ridge at least.

 

 

Amusingly GFS is more amplified downstream than ECM in this instance.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Mucka

[weather eater]

I will concede that the GFS outcomes have been better this year- but it takes a record +AO for the GFS to verify....

 

I just wish you would populate your posts with facts-

 

21st November 2010- is the day it started ( start of the Greenland high)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2010112112/ECH1-0.GIF?12

 

ECM at 192 8 days before

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2010111312/ECH1-192.GIF?12  perfect WAA over Greenland & then 168 the next day-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2010111412/ECH1-168.GIF?12 Brilliant accuracy

 

GFS 192 8 days before

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111306-0-192.png?6 a bit flat but in the ball park

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111406-0-168.png?6 Much better

 

So you would say the ECM was more accurate 9/10 GFS 8/10

 

If your going to cite specific times then at least get the facts correct.

 

But, going to the first paragraph- the ECM has gone from my 10/10 model this winter with minimal silly errors to just 8/10 with many blocking errors with the GFS about 6/10 - UKMO 7.5/10- JMA 7/10

 

All it means is where as before we could put confidence in the ECM at 168 with some foundation, now we don't have 1 model that we can really place our trust in- however because it does verify number 1 we always have to review the ECM first.

 

If it was formula 1 drivers the differences are I would say

 

ECM Vettel ( BOOOO)

UKMO Hamilton

JMA Alonso

 

GFS webber - sometimes has his day but most of the time off the pace in forth......

 

The GEM is like Grojean.....

 

S

Not bad and here's the GFS for the 21st November, 12z on the on the 10th Nov, the GFS picked it up earlier and was more consistent, I would say for 11 days out pretty good. I would recommend looking at the archives for the GFS 12z run for 11th 12th and 13^th Nov 2010, all pretty good given the range, some myth BA

Edited February 10, 2014 by weather eater

[snowmadchrisuk]

Did anybody see the GFS 12z Ensembles , there is almost 90% agreement on height rises near Greenland on there, with some Very Snowy outcomes for the UK starting to show up ... 

 

Interesting stuff . 

[weather eater]

Chaps lets move on please from this debate it happens every year. Rather than debate tirelessly why not research it like Steve has done lots of times. Figures don't lie.

Let's discuss the potential weather coming up and keep this ongoing debate for another thread .

Except there is no debate did I not say the ECM out performs the GFS, have I not said it before, the only point I was making is that it is a mistake to dismiss the GFS over the ECM on every occasion, the weather makes fools of both the models and the knowledgeable it has done so many time over the years on this forum, GPs its coming post from last year a case in point.

Edited February 10, 2014 by weather eater

[johnholmes]

with respect with monumental exacting mass pv dominated land mass usa/canada.its becoming obvious to comply with our dire winter, regarding fired jet stream and progressive LPS one after another.howeverits been knife edge as regards where shortwaves)lps ) exact, in playing an integral part of our winter season. And thats the point, some mods have WAY off on others in match and exact, !I

 

sorry not meant to be rude but is it possible to write a post in simple English please?

[rich1974]

sorry not meant to be rude but is it possible to write a post in simple English please?

Have to agree here, my spelling isn't great but there does seem a lot of strange worded posts these days.

[Timmytour]

Drying up for the second half of February?

Not sure GFS is playing ball at the moment...

THURSDAY 20th FEB