Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[gottolovethisweather]

Well yes but very fleetingly and in the usual places i.e. northern hills etc - you're probably too young to remember the hymn 'hills of the north rejoice'

 

Age doesn't rule our ability to understand what the models are in fact showing, however. SM's post above yours is a very realistic representation of things as they stand, wouldn't you agree? Your posts could be interpreted as somewhat IMBY which is fine but I'm in an equally snowless location as is SM for example and we just need to get the balance right and the original post to which I responded was a bit misleading. Thanks for liking my post in the meantime BTW.

Edited February 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Troubleatmill]

Sorry wrong chart!

Edited February 9, 2014 by Nicholas B

[ANYWEATHER]

If the models were showing a high potential of snow this week I would have thought there'd have been more posts. Steve are we sure some aren't straw clutching??

I don't think Steve was in anyway implying high potential of snow this week, Just saying some potential of elevated snow especially for Wales Northern Britain! Anyway, we all know want a cold ramper Steve is!!!

[wimblettben]

I think it is pretty likely that the models are just overdoing the lows for next week, and I am even more confident about this after seeing the latest JMA model again get rid of the one on Tuesday and swing back to one on Thursday-Friday.

 

Flooding and rain looks to again be the main concern, however their are signs of the weather becoming more settled finally in a few weeks time.

[Man With Beard]

I think it is pretty likely that the models are just overdoing the lows for next week, and I am even more confident about this after seeing the latest JMA model again get rid of the one on Tuesday and swing back to one on Thursday-Friday.

 

Flooding and rain looks to again be the main concern, however their are signs of the weather becoming more settled finally in a few weeks time.

Whilst I completely agree that the "worst case scenario" lows have failed materialise until now, I think there is enough cross-model agreement tonight on a strong to severe storm Wednesday/Thursday, as shown below:

(UKMO hard to read as it would have peaked around T84)

Even GFS ensembles are in on the act:

 

Possible severity ranges: severe gale to storm force.

Areas affected: Anywhere in England/Wales except possibly east coasts north of the wash? - most at risk are the usual places, which are the South West, southern counties, south and west Wales.

[Tamara]

I think it is pretty likely that the models are just overdoing the lows for next week, and I am even more confident about this after seeing the latest JMA model again get rid of the one on Tuesday and swing back to one on Thursday-Friday.

 

Flooding and rain looks to again be the main concern, however their are signs of the weather becoming more settled finally in a few weeks time.

Yes the signals are continuing to grow a little brighter from the faintest of dimmer switches that the coming week might represent the last (of at least the worst) of this record breaking extreme cyclogenetic pattern that has waxed (mostly) and only barely waned (in mid Janurary)through the winter.

 

It surely can't get much worse. Its a gross understatement to suggest that its not going to be be plain sailing. Whatever changes down the line bring in the weather, the worry is the repercussions from this most violent of winters may have only just begun, with all kinds of infrastructure, homes and building problem horrors stored up to unfold in the months ahead - long after the storms have left us and the surface weather conditions are probably incomparable to the here and now.

 

As stated previously over the course of the last week, the second half of February looks set to be the road to rather more 'usual fare' - albeit that doesn't necessarily translate immediately to the sort of cold spell we often see in the late winter period.

 

This coming week looks every bit as dreadful and crammed with danger potential as any we have seen. That said, as bad as it most definitely is, my suggestion would echo yours in that whilst there is no doubt a succession of further very problematic lows are to come, just perhaps the GFS is nevertheless still overdoing the hand grenades this week with too much short wave crazy evident on the 12z. 

 

Reasoning here is that there is a clear trend amongst all the modelling to fill, very very slowly, the upper trough to the North of Scotland through the mid/ latter course of this week around which on the southern and western periphery these secondary bombs are exploding. The root to the eventual stemming of this RACY development of course goes back to the slow moderation of the pattern stateside which will reduce the Canadian cold blower as gradients reduce, and with the vortex starting to relax a little further away by week 2, and most especially thereafter. I think the start of this process is evidently clear to see now in NWP for the time we get to next weekend - following this weeks procession of very hazardous secondary lows which take us right to the end of the week.

 

A programme of a reduction of energy, from such highly intense levels, should not imo carry expectations of any fast track to cold weather. The retrograde of the Pacific pattern, as suggested to occur in recent days, looks to be programmed as a gradual process well into the latter part of February and as a first part of that transition we should expect energy to concentrate away from the turbo fuelled STJ and the lows exploding at the remarkably low latitudes we have been seeing - and instead concentrate back to a more usual westerly storm path that still, nevertheless, precludes (imo)sufficient meridionality in the atlantic to allow cold incursions for the time being.

 

This means that we are likely to see continued growing model and ensemble support for pressure to rise in the atlantic from the south and south west, whilst low pressure tracks further north than currently and without the intense secondary lows of the upper trough stuck so close to the UK as it is at present. The models are already picking up this signal and increasing operational output should indicate this more and more obviously over coming days. However,  we have to go from exceptionally stormy > unsettled > to something of a UK split in this initial process.

 

It is in turn from this eventual pattern of higher pressure in the atlantic being more evident that we should wait for any possible significant amplification signal to emerge as the Pacific pattern improves further, and this could take us to months end and more likely into March. Much for the reasons posted yesterday.

 

So personally I would be very sceptical about expecting to see any possible cold pattern emerging too soon straight from the ashes of this winter vortex ugliest of bloodbaths.  I have to admit that any marginal wintry potential this week, mostly for elevated parts further north, are peripheral imo against the atrocity of the current pattern.

 

For those that get any wintriness however, and are removed from the danger zone of the worst of these atlantic torpdeoes, enjoy it just the same if you can

 

Lets see where we are by next weekend in terms of the improvement to drier weather gradually from the south, and just hope that many of the parts of the country that are already on their knees (with no-where left in the water tables for what is incessantly emptied from the skies) have not sunk too far under, or been blown away, by the time we get to the end of the highest impact weather which might finally end from next weekend.

 

In the current circumstances such fears must be very high, and with yet another week of these horrors on top of what has already occured, then it seems a very long time to the end of the tunnel at the moment

[Man With Beard]

Oh a separate note...on EURO4 model, impressive uppers for a westerly by T48:

GFS tells a similar story at T48 and by T57 gives us this:

Looking good for snow north of a line from the Brecon Beacons to The Wash, that is if you can catch a shower:

 

Longer term, chances of a change next weekend particularly on GFS/ECM to something drier, though how long for is uncertain. A small possibility that a decent enough ridge might build through the Atlantic allowing a brief window for northerlies? 

[shaky]

Ecm keeps most of the precipitation as snow!!850 temps are between -4 and -6 in the heart of the precipitation band!!just taken a look at it on the icelandic metoffice website!!

[Man With Beard]

Ecm keeps most of the precipitation as snow!!850 temps are between -4 and -6 in the heart of the precipitation band!!just taken a look at it on the icelandic metoffice website!!

Sorry Shaky, when/whereabouts will this be snow according to ECM?

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Will the improvements of this morning be built upon tonight? Here is my take on that very question as I review the latest outputs of the NWP based on their midday outputs for today Sunday February 9th 2014.

 

All models show the weekend Low pressure now filling to the North while another tracks East to the South with the UK falling under an area of slack pressure for the next 36 hours. Some rain or wintry showers will still be scattered about, particularly near Western coasts and with some light rain for a time in the SE tomorrow morning. On Tuesday an active front moves East with strong winds ahead of it together with another spell of heavy rain and snow over the hills and in the North. By Wednesday the UK lies under a cold and showery Westerly flow with wintry showers giving some snowfall over hills, again chiefly in the North. Then overnight Wednesday into Thursday another active weather feature moves across the UK with renewed rain and gales followed by showers once more later in the day.

 

GFS then ends the week with further Low pressure, gales and heavy rain before the weather improves somewhat late in the weekend though with some showers in the North as Low pressure moves further North than of late with Higher pressure to the South. Through the lower resolution part of the run tonight High pressure again features eventually settling over the UK with rather cold weather with frost and fog at night but dry for most.

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight offer two weeks of fairly average values though after the mid point of the run this is made up from a wide spread between members with some very cold options being shown including the control run. Rainfall remains stubbornly present over the period but not as excessive as of late. 

 

UKMO shows next Saturday as a very showery and rather chilly day as Low pressure is positioned out in the North Sea with strong West veering NW winds through the day. A ridge of High pressure over the Atlantic on Saturday should give a drier interlude next Sunday.

 

GEM tonight shows no relief of note within it's output period with intense Low pressure with attendant severe gales and rain give way to further unsettled weather with rain and showers at times thereafter. rather cold weather with snow on the hills next weekend will probably give way to slightly milder weather as we enter Week 2.

 

NAVGEM also shows little signs of change next weekend with any rise of pressure limited or muted in the face of further troughs and rain at times to end the run early next week.

 

ECM tonight shows the unsettled period lessening as we move into next week as at long last something of a ridge moves up from the SW pushing the rain bearing systems on more of their usual route towards Iceland and affecting the NW most while the South and East see something of a much more meaningful respite.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show an improvement to those of late but not as good as i would like to see to guarantee drier weather over the UK. The charts both show a bias towards Low pressure to the NW and an unstable SW flow over the UK enabling further rain bearing troughs to cross the UK from the SW at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows no change to the flow this week, maintained in it's current position South of the UK. Through Week 2 the flow buckles and becomes much more ill defined with time with no coherent pattern indicated.

 

In Summary tonight there is still an element of improvement still shown from some output, more notably from GFS and ECM. We must remember though we are talking about periods of time outside of the reliable time period still and it won't be until we are nearing midweek that we need the above improvements to still be shown, by which time they can be taken more seriously. In the mean time there is another week or so of misery and more heavy rain and indeed snow for some to get through which is far from welcome before 'maybe' we can look forward to something better.

[shaky]

Sorry Shaky, when/whereabouts will this be snow according to ECM?

sorry my bad forgot to mention its for Tuesday 12pm and across england!!

[Matty M]

Real poor form from the ECMWF with regard to the 12z postage maps not updating yet on an important evening for them.

 

I know it sounds paranoid but i do get the sense the ECMWF do actually actively try to hide their data, and give as little to the public as possible. Disgraceful really considering they are funded by the our national Meteorologicial Institutions which are largely funded by the tax payer (Met Eireann certainly is, UK MetOffice a bit different).

 

Still, the data should be made available, at the end of the day, if we share data, improvements in forecasting and modelling will follow.

[johnholmes]

Instead of making that type of comment without any foundation why not pm then politely and ask why their output is late today? Ask also if they could make more data freely available, I am sure they will give an objective but polite reply to both?

Edited February 9, 2014 by johnholmes

[Matty M]

Instaead of making that type of comment without any foundation why not pm then politely and ask why their output is late today? Ask also if they could make more data freely available, I am sure they will give an objective but polite reply to both?

 

Any foundation? The foundation is the lack of data in general. Obviously tonight's data not updating is very unlikely to be deliberate. I am just outlining my views that the amount of data provided to the public from the ECMWF is not adequate. I much prefer a model based on the free data concept from the US. Obviously i know there are reasons for these decisions but I am sure most of them are financially motivated and not for the good of forecasting improvements which would inevitably result if they provided all their data free to the public.

 

- + This is a discussion forum to outline views and opinions! 

 

--- By the way obviously i know the ECMWF do amazing work and have done much ground breaking research. It is their data policy i am unhappy with.

Edited February 9, 2014 by Matty M

[johnholmes]

 

- + This is a discussion forum to outline views and opinions! 

 of course it is Matty hence my suggestion that you ask the folk involved, no one on here can answer your query or possibly really understand what the reasons for not allowing all their data to be in the public domain, not unlike UK Met.

further to your last comment as part of the discussion, how would the release of all their data to the public improve forecasting levels?

 

I would suggest rather than 'inevitably' that possibly would be a better comment on the reality of this suggestion?

Edited February 9, 2014 by johnholmes

[mountain shadow]

Anyhow...

Snow pushing West to East on Tuesday.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140209/18/36/prectypeuktopo.png

[Matty M]

GFS 18z @60hrs  looking a bit deeper and perhaps more room to track further north than the 12z.

 

[Eskimo]

GFS 18z @60hrs  looking a bit deeper and perhaps more room to track further north than the 12z.

 

Not at all

[Matty M]

Not at all

 

Tracks a little bit further north in comparison to the 12z but further south than the ECMWF OP.

 

A severe wind-storm could be in the offing for mainland UK.

[Matty M]

Gusts to 70 knots in the London area would likely occur if the 18z verified.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020918/gfs-2-96.png?18

 

Second consecutive run for widespread snow across the south...

 

S

[Eskimo]

The difference is stark!

 

12z



18z

[Coopsy]

Wow some posts are like reading war and peace.....cliff notes people

 

My input on the models? Windy mid week. Your welcome :-)

[pip22]

The difference is stark!

 

12z

18z

That is one powerful storm to the south-west of us. It be just as worse as St Jude''s if this comes along.

Edited February 9, 2014 by pip22

[gottolovethisweather]

Wow some posts are like reading war and peace.....cliff notes people

 

 

 

That explains why the Army has been brought into several parts of Southern England over recent days then, with all that war going on, they quite rightly need to attempt to restore the peace.

 

One more week of mayhem hopefully and then something different come the final third of February perhaps.

Edited February 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather