Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

might not get the big storms  in week 2  but there still a lot of rain  poss   snow/  sleet  still to  come up to Feb 21

Edited February 9, 2014 by tinybill

[Captain Shortwave]

I continue to disagree with those that suggest the further outlook will continue with the same pattern i.e unsettled, stormy. The evidence to me suggests the contrary and I continue to predict that a change from mid month and especially the 3rd week of Feb will occur. This change will take the form of more settled weather with higher pressure and dare I say it even snowfall as a possible E,ly is on the cards for later this month.

 

Prior to this we still have the problem that the UKMO/ECM do not agree with the GFS with regards to the storm at +144.

There is a chance with the ECM/GEM showing more significant ridging in week 2

 

GEM

 

Some hints but at this range it could very well dissolve into nothing in 48 hours time.

[Polar Maritime]

Lot's of scope for surprise snowfall Tue/Wed, local council has been warned here..

 

 

There does seem to be some kind of pattern change showing towards the ends of the runs, with High Pressure trying to push North, certainly something to keep an eye on but early days yet as far as the models are concerned. Something has got to give..

 

Edited February 9, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[shaky]

Models still showing a snow event on tuesday which is brilliant!!whether its wet snow or not both can settle well!!plz dont downgrade models plz!!ecm looks good aswell and sending low pressure further south!!

[Frosty.]

Well if the end of the Gfs 00z op run has any substance, chart I posted above.. TEITS will be spot on, actually even better if it's the mid month period.. Scandi high, easterly incoming..the first wintry blast of the winter on the cusp of the meteorological spring.

[phil nw.]

Look at this FAX charthttp://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif?08-18And ask yourself, where is there any high pressure?The highest isobar showing I can work out is 1028mb way down towards the Azores and that is it in that whole area which covers many hundreds of square miles.

Yes a remarkable Atlantic pattern considering how extensive low heights are.

We can see the effect of that Pacific high which has pushed the main lobe of the vortex this way and encamped it almost right over us.

 

 

There are signs in the Ens.  mean though that the whole polar profile is on the move as we go into week 2 with the demise of that Pacific high and a gradual easing back of the Canadian vortex.

 

still a westerly flow but the greater chance of longer breaks between the lows with some ridging from further south at times more likely.

A way to go yet though with this coming week continuing to look very troubling for further wind and rain.

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. Here is the latest instalment of the output issued by the NWP at midnight on Sunday February 9th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show Low pressure over Northern Scotland filling slowly with the strong Westerly flow weakening steadily with the attendant showers becoming less frequent and heavy than through the recent days. Through tonight an tomorrow Low pressure to the South makes for very slack winds across the UK with some showers still, possibly wintry over the hills but some dry, bright weather too. By Tuesday an active trough crosses East with more heavy rain, strong winds and hill snow in the North followed by a cold and showery westerly flow on Wednesday, strong again with gales in the west and snow showers over the hills.

 

GFS then shows that on Thursday a further vigorous depression is expected to cross East over the heart of the UK with gales and heavy rain with showers on Friday and another strong depression next weekend with yet more rain and gales. Through the lower resolution part of the run this morning's operational shows that further Low pressure brings further rain at times but then a switch to colder, drier weather is shown as pressure rises, eventually strongest to the NE but this prevents much improvement lasting long in the SW as Low pressure troughs buffers the block to the NE with further rain and perhaps snow.

 

The GFS Ensembles show reasonable support for a lessening in the rain amounts through the second half of the run though most members continue to show some while the colder operational run is a little isolated with most members preferring to show pressure rises from the South more likely to be responsible for the lessening rainfall with milder air.

 

UKMO today shows next weekend with Low pressure positioned over Southern England with plenty of unsettled weather around with rain, prolonged at heavy at times over all areas in temperatures close to or somewhat below normal especially in the North.

 

GEM also has Low pressure over Southern Britain next weekend with rain and showers revolving around it affecting all areas with more rain and showers and perhaps snow on hills. Through the remainder of the run the Low fills but is replaced by yet another centre down near the SW at the end of the run with further rain and showers, once more most prolific towards the South and West.

 

NAVGEM today also shows Low pressure well in control later in the week and next weekend with pressure trying to recover from the South, seemingly in vain as further fronts to the West supercede it in it's quest bringing more rain East over the UK in Westerly winds  and average temperatures.

 

ECM today does show an improvement of sorts after next weekend as the fronts and Lows move further North still bringing rain at times for a while but as we move deeper into next week a drier period looks likely as High pressure over France promotes a drier interlude. It doesn't look like lasting long though as Low pressure in the Atlantic may push this drier weather towards the NE while Low pressure moves SE towards the SW bringing a return to rain to these areas soon after termination of the run.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts this morning show broad support for a pressure rise to be achieved from the South just over a week from now. With probable pressure approaching 1020mbs across the South it may not be quite enough to erradicate rain bearing fronts entirely down here with even less chance towards the North as Low pressure is likely to lie somewhere to the NW but it could well slow the amomounts of rain substantially to at least commence the chance of some draining of flood waters in afflicted parts of the South. Within this pattern temperatures could be rising too as winds remain lighter and from the SW. 

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow unchanged over the next week before it weakens and buckles North across the UK with perhaps more of a NE flow across the UK or to the NW late in the output.

 

In Summary today there remains reasonable support for marginal improvements to begin to take shape in just over a week's time as the procession of deep Low's crashing into the UK is pushed further North by a Jet Stream weakening and changing the orientation of it's flow NE to allow pressure rises to take shape from the South. In the mean time this week will produce many more headaches as further heavy rain, gales and even snow could all give problems at times. The weather will likely become drier if not entirely dry with some sunshine and temperatures recovering to average or perhaps slightly above. This improvement being quite a way out is not a done deal and there are still likely to be changes in the projections good or bad through the outputs of the upcoming week.

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes a remarkable Atlantic pattern considering how extensive low heights are.

 

 

Indeed Phil and weather-history, I mentioned this over on the Atlantic Storm thread some four days ago, based on my analysis of the much maligned GFS. It truly has had this pattern nailed over many runs, if we were to be brutally honest.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79252-atlantic-storms-february-2014/?p=2918287

 

Prior to that, next Tuesday's events could have also been predicted to some degree of accuracy at least, some five days ago.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79215-model-output-discussion-25th-jan-onwards/?p=2917407

 

The GFS has also recently hinted at Air Pressure rises at least due South of us over a number of runs, so perhaps we are likely to see that light at the end of the tunnel as we head into the final third of February. A right ole mix of showery outbreaks, gales, sleet, snow, rain, hail and Thunder before then however.

Edited February 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

There should be an injection of wintryness to the uk weather during the next few weeks, temps have been at 6's and 7's..8's & 9's celsius for weeks and weeks now with hardly any snow, ice or frost but if the temps do drop a few degrees it will add a more wintry dimension to our weather although the unsettled and storminess with flooding will continue to dominate but at least today and tomorrow are bringing some respite with the stormy weather returning on tuesday.

[johnholmes]

for the first time this month if not longer the 3 anomaly charts show some disagreement, ECMWF has a different take this morning as you can see below compared to either GFS this morning or NOAA, below that, last evening at either 6-10 or 8-14.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

It remains to be seen if the other two will start to follow its idea of ridging from the south rather than more westerly or it is just a 'one off' that thye each have from time to time.

My personal feeling is that it is a one off particularly if you have a close look at the NOAA 8-14 day output.

[Blizzardof82]

GFS 6z still says yes to some wintriness Tuesday

[Stuie]

Well the ECM is still creating the Alaskan/Pacific high which I touted last night to help promote a pattern change. Again it makes the Atlantic pull West. It really is trying to keep the vortex apart.

@Phil

The pacific high has been prominent in controlling the vortex for a while now. An example above from the end of Jan. It hasn`t done us many favours where I thought it may have.

[Gibby]

There should be an injection of wintryness to the uk weather during the next few weeks, temps have been at 6's and 7's..8's & 9's celsius for weeks and weeks now with hardly any snow, ice or frost but if the temps do drop a few degrees it will add a more wintry dimension to our weather although the unsettled and storminess with flooding will continue to dominate but at least today and tomorrow are bringing some respite with the stormy weather returning on tuesday.

Not sure if today's relief is going to be that significant in my area today. I have had 12mm of rain since midnight, far more than yesterday's 3mm.

Edited February 9, 2014 by Gibby

[Snow Grain]

Not sure if today's relief is going to be that significant in my area today. I have had 12mm of rain since midnight, far more than yesterday's 3mm.

Any break in the weather will help, even though water levels won't reduce. As I mentioned last week the charts will take on a more wintry flavour during the coming weeks. Look northeast!

[phil nw.]

@Phil

The pacific high has been prominent in controlling the vortex for a while now. An example above from the end of Jan. It hasn`t done us many favours where I thought it may have.

Yes it has flattered to deceive in the way it promised to split the vortex later in January and we nearly got a Scandinavian block.

Unfortunately the remarkable intensity of the vortex this year was too much and as we well know the Canadian/Greenland lobe reasserted itself at the crucial time before the block established.

If the mean outputs verify it does look like the Pacific high will wane away and those Atlantic low heights can recede somewhat.

This should see the jet weaken enough to permit some ridging although still too far out yet for any certainty at least it's the first positive sign of a change for the UK in many weeks.

Edited February 9, 2014 by phil nw.

[bluearmy]

for the first time this month if not longer the 3 anomaly charts show some disagreement, ECMWF has a different take this morning as you can see below compared to either GFS this morning or NOAA, below that, last evening at either 6-10 or 8-14.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.phpIt remains to be seen if the other two will start to follow its idea of ridging from the south rather than more westerly or it is just a 'one off' that thye each have from time to time.My personal feeling is that it is a one off particularly if you have a close look at the NOAA 8-14 day output.

One of those days when an op with a completely different solution skews the psu chart. the ECM fi op interests me. Not in the way it evolves because we all know it won't verify. 10 day charts very rarely do. taking into account the last few days fi runs/en suites, this ecm op supports a developing theme and illustrates that there is a chance for some big amplification to our west after week 1. How that manifests itself currently uncertain and coud simply get flattened by the next jet streak. Alternatively, we coud see a big block establish (what chance of that! ). More likely, we could see a decent ridge get as far as north of Iceland. If so, there is a reasonable chance of the next pulse of jet coming east and cutting this off. That' finally presents us with a sniff of winter with undercutting Atlantic. we shall see but there may be something in the offing. At the very least, lets hope it's. drier pattern!

[gottolovethisweather]

Not sure if today's relief is going to be that significant in my area today. I have had 12mm of rain since midnight, far more than yesterday's 3mm.

 

TBF Gibby, I don't think even a week's break would be enough considering the devastation in parts of the South and Southwest especially. I use the "devastation" term loosely but we have what we have currently weather wise and it is far from pleasant. Let's hope the variations on a theme shown by some of the models do indeed start to come to fruition before too long.

 

I had this to say yesterday and I still believe its a valid interpretation (as was your own from earlier, Gibby) of where we might be heading over the coming week or so.

 

As for the current forecast weather pattern, some brighter interludes in the coming working week but still unnecessarily wet and often windy for much of England and more snow for the highest peaks in Scotland. The latter risk diving South on occasions to affect the more hillier parts elsewhere. If I had to pick a drier day down South, I would suggest Monday and Wednesday as better days, but that's about all I can offer you right now.

Edited February 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

There is plenty for coldies to like about the Gfs 06z op run, wintry reloads later in the month and even before then, occasional cold incursions from the west / north west..otherwise it's the very disturbed outlook we are used to with more flooding and severe gales at times during the next 7-10 days but with a stronger wintry signal than recent runs.

[gottolovethisweather]

A colder week ahead for sure but no end to the Atlantic onslaught as we're all well aware I guess. What is rather amazing is the fact there are no HP cells to be seen on this first Fax Chart, which is placed at less than t+24 hours. Thereafter we have the t+36 hours, an equally short timeframe away, in which direction should we be looking for our impending weather by then, East, West, North or South.   Your guess is as good as mine, a very tricky forecast for the pros over the coming days, bar the bleeding obvious overriding signal, WET.

 

 

Edited February 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Newberryone]

A colder week ahead for sure but no end to the Atlantic onslaught as we're all well aware I guess. What is rather amazing is the fact there are no HP cells to be seen on this first Fax Chart, which is placed at less than t+24 hours. Thereafter we have the t+36 hours, an equally short timeframe away, in which direction should we be looking for our impending weather by then, East, West, North or South.   Your guess is as good as mine, a very tricky forecast for the pros over the coming days, bar the bleeding obvious overriding signal, WET.

 

 

090214 MetO Fax Chart t+24.png090214 MetO Fax Chart t+36.png

Very hard one to call alright and this quote from the Irish met service reiterates your point..." There is considerable uncertainty about weather conditions affecting Ireland after Thursday next and no definitive statements can be made as yet. However, there is potential for further wind storms and periods of heavy rain "

[Newberryone]

While I can wholeheartedly understand people wanting a dramatic change and fast one at that to drier weather, I hope for coldies sake the final frames of the Ecm 00z don't verify or gain cross model support, for I cannot see temps plummeting anytime soon after this.

[alexisj9]

While I can wholeheartedly understand people wanting a dramatic change and fast one at that to drier weather, I hope for coldies sake the final frames of the Ecm 00z don't verify or gain cross model support, for I cannot see temps plummeting anytime soon after this.

Right now that is exactly what we need weather wise, and it needs to stick around for at least a month to help dry things out a bit.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble hinting again at some less unsettled for the south and south west towards the end of its run

 

Edited February 9, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Gustywind]

I think a pressure rise from the South is definitely the most likely way forward as the jet relents somewhat and takes a more sw to ne track. A Bartlett features in most of the worst (in terms of lack of cold) winters, so we're due one now.

I hate bartletts but will take one now, just to dry things up.

[sundog]

While I can wholeheartedly understand people wanting a dramatic change and fast one at that to drier weather, I hope for coldies sake the final frames of the Ecm 00z don't verify or gain cross model support, for I cannot see temps plummeting anytime soon after this.

That would be the final insult to coldies imo,winter 2013/14 parting shot a real 2 fingered salute if that came off.

 

But of course many would be happy to see charts like that,although i am not really one of them,would rather it become drier and colder rather then drier and much milder. Spring will come sooner or later anyway.