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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

This looks like ending up in some sort of 'grand finale'.

 

Yes, I was just thinking that very same thing myself. That storm modelled on Valentines day looks potentially dangerous.

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Posted
  • Location: Charlton Adam, near Somerton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, freezing rain, hail, thunderstorms!
  • Location: Charlton Adam, near Somerton, Somerset

In response to Shaky's question:

It's the Met Office's UKV (1.5km) local area high resolution model.

Edited by Charlton Adam snow
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Posted
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Love snow
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire

Is that me or is there a northerly following behind that low???

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

The colour denotes ppn rates while the hatched colours denote snow. They are not very good predictors of actual conditions though, you are better off with using hi res models designed specifically for the task such as Euro4 when the event comes within 48 hours.

 

I often find this useful:

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

The BBC weather has even given up by the looks of tonights forecast.....no graphics but defo a mention of the word wintery a couple of times.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Holy mackerel - goodbye Southern England!

 

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that low only needs to be 200 or 300 miles south and we looking at at pretty wintry conditions!!the slacker the low pressure the further south it will be I think!!
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The pub run has fallen off the wagon

 

Posted Image

 

Yes the Atlantic ridge is still a possibility, we can but hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

The pub run has fallen off the wagon

 

Posted Image

Maybe you're 6 weeks late with your Arctic predictions CC?

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Yes the Atlantic ridge is still a possibility, we can but hope.

 

Welcome to winter 2013/14??? Please?!

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Yep, it was too good to be true - here comes the next round of the gales & p*ssfest

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Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Then the JMA throws this in at + 66 HOURS !!!!! 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk

Holy mackerel - goodbye Southern England!

 

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Oh my lord lol. Good job its the GFS hahaha

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Erm, i'll have a pint of whatever the control run has been drinking tonight.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=1&carte=1

 

A slight outlier  Posted Image

post-18296-0-02418200-1391903894_thumb.p

post-18296-0-91180800-1391903906_thumb.p

post-18296-0-99033300-1391905043_thumb.p

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

 

Yeah, shame it is crazy cold outlier but ya never know!

That JMA 18z run would bring some very interesting conditions across Western central and Northern England - Tuesday still looks like a very interesting day weather-wise one way or another but tiny adjustments between now and then mean big changes in the weather we experience locally so it's just a case of keep watching for now.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

oh great..

 

so its 90% likely that the weather we have had since before Christmas will be blasting us with unwelcome atlantic lows via ultra fast jetstreams for at least the next 2 weeks ?..

 

...as the man said on The Fast Shows 'Jazz Club'.......N I C E. Posted Image Posted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Look at this FAX chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif?08-18

And ask yourself, where is there any high pressure?

The highest isobar showing I can work out is 1028mb way down towards the Azores and that is it in that whole area which covers many hundreds of square miles.

Edited by Weather-history
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