Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

This looks like ending up in some sort of 'grand finale'.

 

Yes, I was just thinking that very same thing myself. That storm modelled on Valentines day looks potentially dangerous.

[Charlton Adam snow]

In response to Shaky's question:

It's the Met Office's UKV (1.5km) local area high resolution model.

Edited February 8, 2014 by Charlton Adam snow

[Aiden2012]

Is that me or is there a northerly following behind that low???

[Purga]

Holy mackerel - goodbye Southern England!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The pub run has fallen off the wagon

 

[Buzz]

The colour denotes ppn rates while the hatched colours denote snow. They are not very good predictors of actual conditions though, you are better off with using hi res models designed specifically for the task such as Euro4 when the event comes within 48 hours.

 

I often find this useful:

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

[Mair Snaw]

The BBC weather has even given up by the looks of tonights forecast.....no graphics but defo a mention of the word wintery a couple of times.

[shaky]

Holy mackerel - goodbye Southern England!

 

that low only needs to be 200 or 300 miles south and we looking at at pretty wintry conditions!!the slacker the low pressure the further south it will be I think!!

[Mucka]

The pub run has fallen off the wagon

 

 

Yes the Atlantic ridge is still a possibility, we can but hope.

[shaky]

In response to Shaky's question:It's the Met Office's UKV (1.5km) local area high resolution model.

ecm second?

[Mucka]

I often find this useful:

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

 

Yes that is Euro4 as I said. 

[Purga]

The pub run has fallen off the wagon

 

Maybe you're 6 weeks late with your Arctic predictions CC?

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes the Atlantic ridge is still a possibility, we can but hope.

 

Welcome to winter 2013/14??? Please?!

 

[Blizzardof82]

If you want to sweep your other half off their feet on valentines day just stick them in the middle of an open field

[Purga]

Yep, it was too good to be true - here comes the next round of the gales & p*ssfest

Edited February 8, 2014 by Purga

[EML Network]

Then the JMA throws this in at + 66 HOURS !!!!! 

 

 

[shaky]

Then the JMA throws this in at + 66 HOURS !!!!! 

 

 

lookw like the ecm!!

[Chris D]

Holy mackerel - goodbye Southern England!

 

 

Oh my lord lol. Good job its the GFS hahaha

[SE Blizzards]

Erm, i'll have a pint of whatever the control run has been drinking tonight.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=1&carte=1

 

A slight outlier  

Edited February 9, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Mucka]

Erm, i'll have a pint of whatever the control run has been drinking tonight.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=1&carte=1

 

Yeah, shame it is crazy cold outlier but ya never know!

That JMA 18z run would bring some very interesting conditions across Western central and Northern England - Tuesday still looks like a very interesting day weather-wise one way or another but tiny adjustments between now and then mean big changes in the weather we experience locally so it's just a case of keep watching for now.

 

[Mucka]

Good morning fellow citizens, another day another storm.

GFS has the days of the 13th and 15th booked for our weekly dosage of rain and gales.

 

 

 

Still looking cold enough for some wintriness Tuesday evening even to lower levels for some, whether back edge snow or wintry showers following behind.

 

 

Edit

 

UKMO also has at least some wintry potential (we are talking wet snow falling to low levels here)

 

 

 

Actually it just about keeps things interesting for the North with the runner low on the 13th much less developed than GFS and staying further South so win, win there if it were to come off.

 

 

Unfortunately neither GFS nor UKMO want to make much of any Atlantic ridge this morning although GFS does go on to have another two or three nibbles at the cherry and eventually  cuts the Atlantic off setting up a cold pattern but in very deep FI.

 

 

Although that is a ridiculously long way out it is still worth a casual look because it is not far off what last nights control run came up with so if you aren't tired of chasing ghost Easterlies this Winter (I think we have all had our fill) then it may be something to kep you interested.

 

JMA also looks cold Tuesday (and very wet) with a little feature zipping across the South and the low for the 13th almost a channel  low.

The MetO only talk of rain with absolutely no mention of wintry potential which is a little odd given they are talking about showers turning wintry later today and yet Tuesday looks a fair bit colder.Perhaps it is because it will likely be back edge snow if it falls at all and it won't cause any problems by accumulating so the story really is the heavy rain yet again but they don't even mention snow for high ground which puzzles me. Am I so snow starved that I am seeing snow possibilities where none exist? Certainly the lack of any embedded cold and a Westerly with a long sea track would normally be rain but this looks like an unusually cold Westerly. We will see I guess. 

 

 

GEM has the same little feature zipping across the South as JMA on Tuesday.

 

 

It is quite similar to GFS Op in FI in that makes repeated attempts to build an Atlantic ridge.

 

 

GFS ensembles

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=230&y=36

 

SE England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=288&y=125

Edited February 9, 2014 by Mucka

[chubbyfan]

oh great..

 

so its 90% likely that the weather we have had since before Christmas will be blasting us with unwelcome atlantic lows via ultra fast jetstreams for at least the next 2 weeks ?..

 

...as the man said on The Fast Shows 'Jazz Club'.......N I C E.   

[Weather-history]

Look at this FAX chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif?08-18

And ask yourself, where is there any high pressure?

The highest isobar showing I can work out is 1028mb way down towards the Azores and that is it in that whole area which covers many hundreds of square miles.

Edited February 9, 2014 by Weather-history

[Frosty.]

The week ahead looks rather colder than recent times according to the Gfs 00z op run with wintry ppn across most of the uk at some point, there is also the potential for significant snow on hills. This run shows several cold incursions and the run ends with the word cold stamped all over it. It could be that we will add the words snow and ice to torrential rain, flooding, hail, thunder and severe gales &storm force winds during the next few weeks..maybe the kitchen sink will be included too!

Edited February 9, 2014 by Frosty.

[TEITS]

I continue to disagree with those that suggest the further outlook will continue with the same pattern i.e unsettled, stormy. The evidence to me suggests the contrary and I continue to predict that a change from mid month and especially the 3rd week of Feb will occur. This change will take the form of more settled weather with higher pressure and dare I say it even snowfall as a possible E,ly is on the cards for later this month.

 

Prior to this we still have the problem that the UKMO/ECM do not agree with the GFS with regards to the storm at +144.