Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Purga]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020312/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0

 

ECM ends on a wintry note for the UK, with some snow especially the further North you are-

 

a nice theme from the ECM today.

 

S

I know but it's cold rain and wind misery for most of the south though Steve.

[stodge]

Evening all

 

As stormy and disturbed a series of 12Z Operational outputs as I've ever seen though the latest BBC weather forecast didn't really make for bad reading for some areas.

 

The one thing striking me from the output is the gentle southward progression of the LP centres as the jet tacks gently southward. Not much in the way of mild, not much in the way of cold, plenty in the way of wet, plenty in the way of wind.

[phil nw.]

A few posts  have been moved to the other model thread.

Just current output discussions in here please folks-general views elsewhere.

 

Thanks.

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from today Monday February 3rd 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show a very unsettled week and weekend to come as powerful depression ride on the back of a very active Jet flow crossing the Atlantic towards Southern Britain. There will be several periods of worrying weather for those areas already afflicted by floods with Wednesday, late Thursday and probably Saturday looking likely to produce disruptive rainfall and/or strong winds. In between these periods of deep Low pressures moving up from the SW will be fresher but still strong Westerly winds and heavy showers rattling through then too.

 

GFS then shows next week as being equally disturbed with further strong winds and heavy rain at times as further Low pressure areas cross the Atlantic and the UK in temperatures close to average.

 

The GFS Ensembles show the unsettled and often wet pattern maintained in temperatures close to or somewhat above average at times especially in the South. With accompanying strong winds at times will mean any mildness is tempered in the way things feel.

 

UKMO shows Low pressure close to Northern Scotland next Sunday with a strong Westerly flow across the UK with heavy showers rushing East in average temperatures feeling rather cold.

 

GEM is very disturbed with Low pressure close to or over the United Kingdom with gales and spells of heavy rain and showers continuing over all areas at times.

 

NAVGEM closes its run showing Low pressure just to the NE of Scotland with showers in many places, more especially towards the West and temperatures never look like straying far from the seasonal average.

 

ECM is totally unrelenting tonight in bringing in Low pressure after Low pressure across the UK with their seemingly never ending conveyor belts of rain followed by showers win strong to gale wind at times and temperatures close to average.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart gives us a strong clue to where ECM Ensembles lie tonight towards the end of it's run and it remains not good news for those hoping for something drier as both days show the UK influenced by Low pressure most likely just to the West of Scotland with a SW flow across the UK with further rain or showers, heavy and prolonged at times in temperatures close to average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream shows the unrelenting passage of winds strengthening further over the next week and maintaining it's course towards France and being a catalyst to powerful depressions developing over the Atlantic and crashing into the UK.

 

In Summary the pattern remains locked in it's current very volatile state with further spells of disruptive rainfall along with high winds giving their own problems at times. With very little evidence of any ridges of High pressure of note then we can't expect anymore than brief drier interludes before the next storm system rattles in. There is no doubt that further flooding and weather disruption in general will be making the headlines over the coming two weeks.

[Stuie]

Did any model forecast snow for the West Country moors in the lead up to this evening?

 

Until Saturday the front was shown to cross to the East by mid afternoon however it has been very slow moving and snow is now falling on Dartmoor as the temperature drops.

Somebody is sprinkling confetti from the window above...

 

Finally is this the point where the Atlantic stops getting fueled and some height rises to the NW. A European pool of cold air finally occurs/arrives too. No idea what is likely to happen next. Do we need another Scandi fail high at this juncture?

Anyway, finally, I think the Atlantic wheels have finally sunk into the sodden ground that once preceded them.

[Cleeve Hill]

There are more and more signs now of a change. More models are showing higher pressure off east cost on N. America and also occasional glimpses of higher pressure to our north. Nothing major but some subtle changes. Let's face it there had to be a change at some stage and this one is well overdue.

In the meantime, no sign of anything mild and as we are now in the coldest month of the year, the angle of low pressures coming into the uk could quite easily produce some snow over the higher parts of Southern England. The snow total in the Scottish highlands are now significant and the ski resorts are about to hit a bonanza. Good luck to em.

[festivalking]

Where paying attention to snow that could happen 8 days away even though there is one that COULD happen 3 days from now across england as that low skirts through the channel!!!fingeirs crossed!!

forget 3 days it's been snowing here tonight.

[shaky]

forget 3 days it's been snowing here tonight.

lol exactly my point!!I knew the potential was there today aswell!!front coming up against the block and winds coming in from the continent so there was always a chance of snow today!!

[bluearmy]

Main point of interest on the 12z ecm ens is the pushing into the eastern med of the higher height anomoly by day 10. The build of this feature is the recent theme that prevents our trough from aligning onto a better axis to bring a sniff of winter proper to nw europe. If we can drive the trough to our east ( and preferably southeast), then we can potentially open up a pandoras box of cold air via some amplification to our west although a sinking of the entire trough would do. Will be interesting to see if the london ens throw up some colder members later

[I remember Atlantic 252]

lol exactly my point!!I knew the potential was there today aswell!!front coming up against the block and winds coming in from the continent so there was always a chance of snow today!!

 

but not for low levels, this has been a snowy winter for high levels

[DAVID SNOW]

but not for low levels, this has been a snowy winter for high levels

Right; from now on im gonna put on the mrs  stilettos

[Polar Maritime]

Right; from now on im gonna put on the mrs  stilettos

 

[Tim Bland]

I believe the UK is under there somewhere. I sense another disaster contingency meeting could be held this week!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=114&code=0&mode=0

[Blizzardof82]

Wednesdays low is deep but Saturdays takes the crown  

[Nick F]

Wednesdays low is deep but Saturdays takes the crown

 

Thursday's Channel low has now come back to haunt southern Britain on recent runs following being dropped in favour of a more southerly track across France. It may not win prizes for strong winds, but more worrying is its more southerly origin compared to Wednesday's or Saturday's low, so it will have more copious moisture/latent heat wrapped up in it, thus it will likely produce a worrying amount of rain across southern Britain on Thursday based on current models progs.

Edited February 3, 2014 by Nick F

[Timmytour]

 

Presumably because they wont be able to find the pistes because of the metres of snow ?? Looks like bucketloads of snow for the alps.

Half term though is two weeks away....and before then it looks like warm uppers are being dragged up from the south in strong winds....to my admittedly untrained eye...that doesn't look too good

[bluearmy]

Half term though is two weeks away....and before then it looks like warm uppers are being dragged up from the south in strong winds....to my admittedly untrained eye...that doesn't look too good

This digging of the trough towards iberia later next week is gaining credence across the models. naturally this is likely to throw a warm uppers area ahead of it but it looks quite transient as the pattern remains mobile. A day or two of thaw will make little impact on the depth of cover most resorts will have by then. The return of mobilit will provide ample topping up.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

GFS not following ECM's idea thus far of higher pressure building to our north with lows on a more southerly track

 

ECM at 240

 

 

GFS at 240

 

 

 

Big differences - will be interesting to see if ECM continues its trend tomorrow or whether it reverts to something akin to GFS output

 

EWS 

[Brassmonkeylily]

Thursday's Channel low has now come back to haunt southern Britain on recent runs following being dropped in favour of a more southerly track across France. It may not win prizes for strong winds, but more worrying is its more southerly origin compared to Wednesday's or Saturday's low, so it will have more copious moisture/latent heat wrapped up in it, thus it will likely produce a worrying amount of rain across southern Britain on Thursday based on current models progs.

Hi Nick … Thursday's low only half heartedly mentioned in  BBC forecast tonight…..they can't bear to give us more bad news!

[bluearmy]

Latest day 4 fax takes the system right across se uk through the course of thurs evening/night. Hardly any deepening as it heads ne so as nick mentioned earlier, the rainfall totals look to be the problem. Wouldnt rule out some snowfall over the peak district/Yorkshire dales/welsh mountains.

And regarding the evolution days 8 through 10 on the gfs 18z, the switch to low res comes at a bad time for the run. I would wait for some more output before reaching any conclusions. I thonk its significant that it digs the trough se at the point the 12z headed ne with the majority of the split flow.

Edited February 3, 2014 by bluearmy

[Ali1977]

Ensembles slowly throwing up better charts for a change to drier weather, even a few easterlies in tonight's ..albeit in deep FI!

[draztik]

In keeping with recent updates, the EC32 keeps troughing to our NW throughout. No blocking present whatsoever on this run; the only positive I see is for the S to be 'less wet', compared to recent events into latter end of Feb. But on the face of it, even the South will be affected by unsettled weather into March. Temperature anomaly suggests the UK will be around average throughout; with the continent keeping the positive anomaly, more so in Eastern Europe. A pretty uninspiring update all round.

Edited February 4, 2014 by draztik

[fergieweather]

Thursday's Channel low has now come back to haunt southern Britain on recent runs following being dropped in favour of a more southerly track across France. It may not win prizes for strong winds, but more worrying is its more southerly origin compared to Wednesday's or Saturday's low, so it will have more copious moisture/latent heat wrapped up in it, thus it will likely produce a worrying amount of rain across southern Britain on Thursday based on current models progs.

UKMO thoughts exactly (albeit 12z EC DET currently considered 'worst case scenario'... and it would be indeed just that). Nonetheless, amendnents to existing warnings look likely later this morning. Some snow possible too on NW flank above 400m (Wales/Pennines especially) but self-evidently it's the rain that looks extremely troubling. Plus whatever Saturday then throws at us, so soon afterwards....

[Man With Beard]

UKMO wants to send a really large amount rain over SE corner on Friday morning. GFS not so considerable. That aside, as you were this morning in the reliable timeframe.

[Frosty.]

I can see more potential for snow to fall more widely across the uk next week, crucially, including low levels for a change. The Gfs 00z op run shows the jet digging further south with increasing amounts of cold air and trough disruption across the uk. With southerly tracking atlantic lows bumping into the colder air, I think sleet and wet snow and icy stretches would eventually become more likely than torrential rain. Further north across scotland, it could turn relatively drier for a time into next week with widespread sharp frosts but also with the threat of snow.

Edited February 4, 2014 by Frosty.