Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[bluearmy]

at least the next fortnight purga!

no expectation from the extended ens of a change to less wet within 2 weeks.

[Man With Beard]

At least signs of a change in Canada. Today's NOAA 8-14 day chart (can't post on phone) shows a large upper trough over Alaska, meaning high pressure is unlikely to form there and hence the cold feed into canada may be largely cut off. The PV continues to move away from the Canadian east coast. So the fuel for these lows may start running out next week.

[phil nw.]

Yes it really is a worrying outlook for the already affected areas.

Tues/Weds and again the weekend look particularly troublesome with 2 really deep lows modeled around the UK.

 

 

gales with widespread heavy rain.

The only High latitude blocking we can see on the NH 500hPa pattern is as ever over the Pacific area which simply pushes those low heights further south this side.

 

There seems no end to the Atlantic energy coming straight for us out to the end of the high resolution part of the run.Jet forecast.

 

 

a seemingly unending conveyor showing of further wave depressions heading this way.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tony27]

it's got that bad that im not even bothering to look at the NH 500mb charts, it's easier to look at the european charts and see the track of the lows and precipitation 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday doesn't look very nice at this stage with another exceptionally deep low coming our way bringing further rain and strong winds

 

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020312/ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

 

Snow....

 

For many.

[texel]

That a promise Steve?

[Eastwoods]

Hi Eastwoods,

Welcome to the forum.

I am sure your positive comments are appreciated by all.

I hope you continue to find the thread useful and eventually feel you can add your views on the charts.

Thanks for the warm welcome I think I'm way off commenting on the models just yet, I'm still trying to work out how to reply to post!!!! Edited February 3, 2014 by Eastwoods

[Frosty.]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020312/ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

 

Snow....

 

For many.

And only 8 days away..what could possibly go wrong gawd just for once could the ecm verify instead of leading us up the garden path all the time.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020312/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0

 

ECM ends on a wintry note for the UK, with some snow especially the further North you are-

 

a nice theme from the ECM today.

 

S

[R.P. McMurphy]

And only 8 days away..what could possibly go wrong gawd just for once could the ecm verify instead of leading us up the garden path all the time.

 

Yup, it's very hard to trust anything past 84 hours or so at the moment - we even had quite a good agreement with the ECM last time... Next day... We all know what happened.

[shaky]

Where paying attention to snow that could happen 8 days away even though there is one that COULD happen 3 days from now across england as that low skirts through the channel!!!fingers crossed!!

[bluearmy]

the low coming up later this week has come from a very warm area. it will take a very particular set of circumstances for that to bring snowfall to england although higher elevations of wales could do ok if it tracks just right and doesnt over deepen.

 

the latter part of the ecm run looks like an excellent evolution for coldies (especially beyond the run). however, i doubt we have found the correct path just yet post day 7.  there are indeed some upstream changes but they may well be temporary and have an even shorter effect downstream before reverting. got to keep watching the runs and ens to see where the extent of the envelope is at both ends.

[cooling climate]

Posted in the strat thread a while ago that we should expect to see higher pressure or

blocking to our north in the next couple of weeks and that the models should soon start

to pick up on this.

Well the 12z ECM shows just the sort of synoptics I was referring to. The vortex stateside

has been pushed back over northwestern Canada with high pressure over the eastern

sea board and eastern Canada.Again if the run continued for another 48 hours or so we

would almost certainly see pressure increasing to the north and northeast with the lows

moving into the continent and much colder uppers being pulled down from the north and

northeast.

All courtesy of the strat warming. Now all it has to do is verify.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

the low coming up later this week has come from a very warm area. it will take a very particular set of circumstances for that to bring snowfall to england although higher elevations of wales could do ok if it tracks just right and doesnt over deepen.

 

the latter part of the ecm run looks like an excellent evolution for coldies (especially beyond the run). however, i doubt we have found the correct path just yet post day 7.  there are indeed some upstream changes but they may well be temporary and have an even shorter effect downstream before reverting. got to keep watching the runs and ens to see where the extent of the envelope is at both ends.

Concerning thing about that low, is the amount of rain it will bring, hence you saying a 'warm' area. More warmth = more moisture, therefore a substantial amount of rain. Bad thing is, the front stalls over the soddened country, so not looking good at all. 

Funny how GFS has brought this key player right back in the game, as yesterday, it had the idea to shove it into Iberia completely. 

Bottom line about this winter so far, it has had the WOW factor for the completely wrong reasons!

Edited February 3, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[bluearmy]

Concerning thing about that low, is the amount of rain it will bring, hence you saying a 'warm' area. More warmth = more moisture, therefore a substantial amount of rain. Bad thing is, the front stalls over the soddened country, so not looking good at all. 

Funny how GFS has brought this key player right back in the game, as yesterday, it had the idea to shove it into Iberia completely. 

Bottom line about this winter so far, it has had the WOW factor for the completely wrong reasons!

 

the more it deepens the further northwest it gets. ecm decided to deepen it more on yesterdays run and gfs has caught up with this. tbh. you are right that if it carries more warmth it holds more moisture.  the faxes later will be worth waiting for re this

[Polar Maritime]

Start of the upgrades I mentioned earlier. Keep watching during the week for more wintry charts that will verify.

 

You should work for the METO 

 

Some nice signals from the ECM today, keep an eye on them tiny heights over the pole, and ridging starting to push up into Greenland, it's starting to cut-in in a good place to with the Jet already way South over the UK.

 

We have got to start somewhere !

 

Edited February 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[chris55]

Winter 2013/14 needs a sting in the tail lol!!!! ECM has some positive changes.

 

I'm so far from convinced it's laughable. But surely this dreadful pattern has got to break at some point.

 

[Troubleatmill]

You should work for the METO

Some nice signals from the ECM today, keep an eye on them tiny heights over the pole, and ridging starting to push up into Greenland, it's starting to cut-in in a good place to with the Jet already way South over the UK.

We have got to start somewhere !

High pressure ridging I to newfoundlad? Thats as unheard of as it is for here! Hopefully it should end the coal supply for atlantic steam train, certainly ECM more bullish than GFS for a lull down the line, wouldnt take much from there, defo of interest Edited February 3, 2014 by Nicholas B

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Winter 2013/14 needs a sting in the tail lol!!!! ECM has some positive changes.

 

I'm so far from convinced it's laughable. But surely this dreadful pattern has got to break at some point.

 

By the time this pattern looks to break, it will already be Spring! 

[Rustynailer]

Winter 2013/14 needs a sting in the tail lol!!!! ECM has some positive changes.

 

I'm so far from convinced it's laughable. But surely this dreadful pattern has got to break at some point.

 

Yes it has it is one big storm, it has lows floating around it, "It" the super low, that has been there since December.....

[winterof79]

Yup, it's very hard to trust anything past 84 hours or so at the moment - we even had quite a good agreement with the ECM last time... Next day... We all know what happened.

I would suggest that ECM struggled with the strength of the vortex and a robust blocking to our east when it was not verifying.

Now the blocks gone and the vortex is waning,i think it may have a better handle on things.

[winterof79]

By the time this pattern looks to break, it will already be Spring! 

It was spring on March the 21st last year but that did not stop the weather being cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-3-21-0-2.png

It will make a fool of the best of us as it has this winter so far....

[IDO]

This slacker flow in week 2 has been showing up in the GEFS as a trend for a while. The Pacific Ridge migrating west allows the Canadian vortex to ease west and less stress for it to cross the Atlantic.

 

The undercutting low (sliding under another low) at T192: 

 

Is showing up on about 50% of the GEFS as well; probably due to the Atlantic hitting the block across the Continent. About 3-4 of these members support the ECM synoptic, with a similar upper temp mix, so not an outlier, but again a difficult manoeuvre to get just right for snow.

 

The GEM tries it and doesn't get it quite right for a wintry mix:

 

It also relies on the jettison of most of the Canadian PV lobe at T120, as this drags in a very cold upper westerly flow behind it, modified but still cold:

 

 

 

The GEFS for NW England show that potential for snow with the introduction of that transient colder flow:   London not v.promising: 

 

The GEFS at the end of FI are a little more promising than of late, and the clusters are the best way to highlight this:

 

 

Both heights in the Atlantic and SE Europe beginning to edge closer to the UK on this ensemble suit, but again some sort of zonal flow still the main signal. As you would expect from heights moving north not much for the coldies, 850s mean: 

 

But some more settled members, my favourite:  

 

If we are not going to get cold that is the next best scenario.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

It was spring on March the 21st last year but that did not stop the weather being cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-3-21-0-2.png

It will make a fool of the best of us as it has this winter so far....

It didn't feel right though, almost as if it came to a party that had already ended (winter). I also think that this pattern will carry on into March too. It has just been relentless. We are in a real 'locked' pattern at the moment that we have failed to break out of all winter. America needs blowtorching if we are going to break out of this mild, wet weather. All we are seeing is a very steep contrast in temperature off the US East coast which is driving this relentless, powerful jet onto us. We need to see a stop to that before anything.