Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Summer Sun]

Out to t216 and low pressure remains dominant on ECM
 

 

 

ECM at t240 not interested in anything remotely settled unlike GFS and GEM

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[andymusic]

Looks as if we've paid for the last few winters (and loads of decent blocking set ups) finally with this wash out of a zonal onslaught - weather has a way of balancing itself out unfortunately - hopefully that means we'll get a decent one again next year - long range low solar input and general agreement on a slide in temps over the coming few decades should mean more winters will proceed to be cold (we can but hope) - but this one is about to be assigned to the recycle bin - and hope of an early dryer spring is now on our minds!

[Summer Sun]

2nd time today the rainfall totals longer term look like they could ease across the UK but before that we have another wet week coming up taking us to the 8th from the 8th to 16th is when we have hints of lighter rain than of late

 

 

As I said next week sees more heavy rain with over 100mm possible for parts the south west of England and wales

 

Totals to 12pm on the 8th

 

[Nick F]

12z GFS and ECM seem to be on default zonal once the block's blasted east, with nothing to derail the Atlantic express.

 

The jet stream is tracking quite a way south across the N Atlantic though on both models, which is ironic, because we could have done with the jet stream doing this when we had the block to our northeast recently.

 

Instead, the southerly jet seems to be the catalyst for smaller but nonetheless rapidly deepening intense secondary lows in the southwest approaches, as polar air north of the jet gets closer to the source of warm tropical air further south.

 

One such secondary deepens to SW of Ireland on Tuesday and heads towards NW Britain by Weds, bringing threat of strong winds. Then hot on its heels both GFS and EC show a sharpening shortwave upper trough moving out from New Foundland on Tuesday, which both digs the jet even further south and deepens another secondary low ahead of it, which tracks further south over England and Wales - a potential deep/intense low that certainly needs to be kept an eye on subsequent runs.

 

GFS over next 7 days indicating 60-80mm across southern most  counties of England, Wales, Ireland, NW England and Scotland, 80-90mm across S Wales and Lake District.

 

I know it doesn't make pleasant reading, but everyone should be aware of the potential disruption this may cause to some peoples lives.

Edited January 31, 2014 by Nick F

[Bobby]

The ECM 12z is as bad as it gets, do not look unless you have some

 

[nick sussex]

To use a famous Sun quote remixed for here: Would the last cold and snow lover to leave this thread please switch off the light!

 

The charts are more akin to early December than February, its almost as if  theres a new constant, just as the sun goes up and down, the PV over Canada is now there for ever more! it must seem that way for coldies!

 

Overall  its a case of not good, bad and ugly its just bad and ugly in terms of yet more wind and rain, troughing stuck over or to the west of the UK.

 

In terms of the global models , the UKMO probably best for strawclutching cold potential, the ECM is awful with a pattern that needs a health warning, or a boat as the case maybe!

 

The current strat warming is our last hope and even that seems to be firing blanks at the PV given the strat thread,still a small chance that we might see the PV edged a bit further to the nw but overall its like the sands of time are going quickly, winter fast disappearing under a deluge of rain and wind, unless that strat warming can go against current expectations and deliver a change then I think its hard to see where any cold could come from.

Edited January 31, 2014 by nick sussex

[Gaz1985]

Even only up to 72 hours on the WRF-NMM it looks very wet for places especially the west. 80mm+ in places, a bit more than that over county Galway, Kerry, Mayo over in Ireland. Obviously this model counts what we have already seen today which has been very wet in places.

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Gaz1985

[Purga]

12z GFS and ECM seem to be on default zonal once the block's blasted east, with nothing to derail the Atlantic express.

 

The jet stream is tracking quite a way south across the N Atlantic though on both models, which is ironic, because we could have done with the jet stream doing this when we had the block to our northeast recently.

 

Instead, the southerly jet seems to be the catalyst for smaller but nonetheless rapidly deepening intense secondary lows in the southwest approaches, as polar air north of the jet gets closer to the source of warm tropical air further south.

 

One such secondary deepens to SW of Ireland on Tuesday and heads towards NW Britain by Weds, bringing threat of strong winds. Then hot on its heels both GFS and EC show a sharpening shortwave upper trough moving out from New Foundland on Tuesday, which both digs the jet even further south and deepens another secondary low ahead of it, which tracks further south over England and Wales - a potential deep/intense low that certainly needs to be kept an eye on subsequent runs.

 

GFS over next 7 days indicating 60-80mm across southern most  counties of England, Wales, Ireland, NW England and Scotland, 80-90mm across S Wales and Lake District.

 

I know it doesn't make pleasant reading, but everyone should be aware of the potential disruption this may cause to some peoples lives.

This really is a very grim winter and not just because us snow lovers have had a catastrophic season but mainly because of the dreadful persistant wind and rain that has been blighting the lives af many and looks set to get even worse!

I think a Bartlett would be welcomed by many now - never thought I would ever say such a thing!

Edited January 31, 2014 by Purga

[Geordiesnow]

Just the way it goes sometimes, you win some and you lose some and unfortunately all the blocking we had during January only affected us very briefly that in the end, it just came and went with a wimper really. 

 

Lets not forget that last March bought considerable lying snow so whilst we are approching the last month of winter, the snowfall season is not over for a while yet however as others pointed out, there is no real sign of anything significant in terms of cold and once again, it be the wind and rain that be making the headlines unfortunately. 

 

I really would not mind a deep low but all the lows have been deep rounded low pressure systems and on a local POV they don't tend to generate that strong gusts of winds, could do with the flow coming from the West/WNW'ly direction with tighly packed isobars so the winds can whip up on the lee of the Pennines. 

 

Potential for a very deep low pressure system to hit the UK during next week looks quite high, although a lot of uncertainty in terms of all the detail. That said, this weekend's deep low pressure system is going to pack quite a punch so on a weather enthusiasts point of view, still some interest in the weather. 

[Jason M]

To borrow Fergies phrase, this feature to the SW could be bothersome....

 

That could drop stupendous amounts of rain!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

 

Edit - here she comes 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=2

Edited January 31, 2014 by Jason M

[Jason M]

12 hours later......

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=2

 

long way out so lets hope this doesn't see the light of day!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

To borrow Fergies phrase, this feature to the SW could be bothersome....

 

That could drop stupendous amounts of rain!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

 

Edit - here she comes 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=2

 

Well it won't come off like 18Z shows, it shows the perfect track for snow for NW Midlands, will end up tracking further north

[Jason M]

Well it won't come off like 18Z shows, it shows the perfect track for snow for NW Midlands, will end up tracking further north

 

Would be okay for welsh mountains maybe, but 850s and maritime nature of airmass would mean rain for 99% of people. I do accept GFS implies some snow, but in my opinion that's rain and I don't care what GFS says as it constantly overplays snowfall!! (all my opinion of course  )

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Would be okay for welsh mountains maybe, but 850s and maritime nature of airmass would mean rain for 99% of people. I do accept GFS implies some snow, but in my opinion that's rain and I don't care what GFS says as it constantly overplays snowfall!! (all my opinion of course  )

 

Agree rain for 99% because 18Z will have track wrong

[Jason M]

Well, what have we here...........

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=288&mode=0

[Eskimo]

Well, what have we here...........

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=288&mode=0

A short period of high pressure (48 hours max) and then back to the westerly dross? Yeah I had that idea too. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My word, look at how GFS wants to start summer over Spain and the Med. 15c uppers widely :O. Could we see a plume lol !

[Jason M]

A short period of high pressure (48 hours max) and then back to the westerly dross? Yeah I had that idea too. 

 

 

hmm maybe, maybe not. Some GEM ensembles were playing with this sort of scenario at a similar timeframe. Also need to factor in the GFS low res tendency to default to zonal. Worth just keeping an eye over the next few days.

[Purga]

An easterly!

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Purga

[john pike]

120 fax tonight

 

ouch

[Just Below Zero]

Quick summary of the latest models...........

 

ECM starring Freddy Kruger rated 12z

 

UKMO starring Peter Cushing rated 12z

 

GFS starring Vincent Price rated 18z

[Man With Beard]

Well, what have we here........... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=288&mode=0

I notice the start warming is going through the roof now, but surely this would be too soon after to be related?

[SnowBallz]

Would be okay for welsh mountains maybe, but 850s and maritime nature of airmass would mean rain for 99% of people. I do accept GFS implies some snow, but in my opinion that's rain and I don't care what GFS says as it constantly overplays snowfall!! (all my opinion of course  )

 

Hey Jason,

 

No, not just your opinion Jason this time; one of the known idiosyncrasies of the GFS model is the bias it lends to over-advertising snow in its precipitations fields.  This signal seems to become further amplified when associated with deep cyclogenesis (which appears to develop its own erroneous feedback loop)  As Ian often advises, it's wise to avoid placing too much faith in GFS precip fields; usually exaggerated and often atmospherically implausible (as is the case here)

 

As an aside, the major concern really is for the tidal event in the early hours.  An extraordinary act of coincidence is seemingly conspiring to deliver extremely elevated levels of danger, and to a region already well tensed.  One can only hope warnings are heeded; because this really is no joke.

[Tamara]

12z GFS and ECM seem to be on default zonal once the block's blasted east, with nothing to derail the Atlantic express.

 

The jet stream is tracking quite a way south across the N Atlantic though on both models, which is ironic, because we could have done with the jet stream doing this when we had the block to our northeast recently.

 

Instead, the southerly jet seems to be the catalyst for smaller but nonetheless rapidly deepening intense secondary lows in the southwest approaches, as polar air north of the jet gets closer to the source of warm tropical air further south.

 

One such secondary deepens to SW of Ireland on Tuesday and heads towards NW Britain by Weds, bringing threat of strong winds. Then hot on its heels both GFS and EC show a sharpening shortwave upper trough moving out from New Foundland on Tuesday, which both digs the jet even further south and deepens another secondary low ahead of it, which tracks further south over England and Wales - a potential deep/intense low that certainly needs to be kept an eye on subsequent runs.

 

GFS over next 7 days indicating 60-80mm across southern most  counties of England, Wales, Ireland, NW England and Scotland, 80-90mm across S Wales and Lake District.

 

I know it doesn't make pleasant reading, but everyone should be aware of the potential disruption this may cause to some peoples lives.

As one who is known for her prosaic ramblings for longer term prospects, I think imo this is the most pertinent post of the evening , and quite secondary importance to hunting for cold weather prospects, which look forlorn anyway, and including any of us bemoaning the lack of such prospects

 

This winter has been grim as we all know - the next week looks to match some of the worse weather we have seen this winter in terms of rain and severe gales on top of the existing problems through the UK.  This type of set-up with the upper low ever close attached to the main vortex presents some very rapid cyclogenesis scenarios that the models will not have close detail solutions of at this range.

 

Not good.

Edited January 31, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Frosty.]

I think by march or april we should feel the benefits of strat warming with the most wintry spell since....erm...last spring, yeah you have to laugh, massive northern blocking just in time to ruin mid / late spring and summer.