Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[A.J]

 

Yes Interesting that of all the places that could actually see some Snow falling is SW England, Mind you it could Snow for a week and not settle here, due to all the flooding

 

Edit: More worrying tomorrow's storm is combing with 13m Tides here in Weston, That really is a bad situation to be in at the moment , especially in Somerset.

 

Weston-Super-Mare

High Tide 07:50 (13.00m)

 

Hi Chris, timing for any potential snowfall is critical as Euro4 hi-res modelling progresses favourable dewpoints only on the back edge of any ppn, with wintry showers following....Still one to watch over the next 24 hours as inland areas of the SouthWest & Central Southern England could get lucky. From an IMBY perspective, I 'm looking forward to Ian F's Points West forecast tonight

[Bobby]

The GEFS mean at +240 continues the Atlantic domination (as it does from 24hrs to 384hrs)

 

[Summer Sun]

Away from the west at first and the south west through out rain starts to ease especially for the north east of England and NE Scotland

 

 

Out to next Friday the heaviest rain continues to be in the west, whilst in the north east most places don't get much above 25mm

 

[terrier]

Early frames of ECM also looking stormy and wet for areas that don't need it on output tonight.

Edited January 30, 2014 by phil nw.
ot comments removed

[Snow Grain]

Euro4 6z shows the little snow interest as well

I wouldn't pay much attention to those charts. The precipitation will be mainly rain, maybe snow on high ground up north for a while.

[swfc]

Ecm carries on with the dross outlook ie windy and wet and also the euro high holds firm just to make things worse.Not much joy on the nh charts either regarding any possible ridging ete.Phew!!!! 

[nick sussex]

I think the lack of comments re the ECM speaks for itself. Dreadful is being kind, at this rate I'll have to retire my I Survived 88/89 Winter T-Shirt and replace it with a new one for this winter!

 

Troughing stuck near the UK, wind rain in plentiful supply, I think any blocking to the east is just a nuisance now by stopping any eastwards movement in the pattern. The output is now relentlessly consistent and that's always a bad sign, unless a miracle happens then I think we can write off the next two weeks for anything remotely wintry bar a few hours of slush over the next few days.

 

That takes us to the middle of February, so either the current strat warming delivers a change and we start to see that showing up in next weeks later outputs or we can consign this winter to the scrap heap as just a throwback to some of the horror shows in the past of which there have been many, recent winters have rather skewed the picture somewhat although even in many of those dire winters you'd get the odd northerly toppler or at least a few days of something!

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm carries on with the dross outlook ie windy and wet and also the euro high holds firm just to make things worse.Not much joy on the nh charts either regarding any possible ridging ete.Phew!!!! 

Yup! Sadly we are looking down the barrel of a loaded gun as regards more stormy wet weather. Some folks  yet again will suffer with flooding and wind damage. How much longer this goes on is uncertain, but it looks like the first half of February, will be newsworthy once again for the same old reasons.....Tbh ,I live by two Rivers, [Avon/Isbourne] and it looks like we will be seeing some serious flooding..

Edited January 30, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Dreadful ECM for coldies. All these warmer uppers will soon be in Vladivostok at this rate. Never known a winter like it! I know i keep saying it haha.

[Summer Sun]

A mild and wet spell coming up during next week looking at ECM

 

 

Slightly cooler on the Friday before more mild air comes over

 

 

So out to the 9th of Feb and unfortunate no respite from the rain is on offer from ECM

 

The same can be said for GEM unsettled through out right at the end GEM also shows some mild air coming our way as winds turn south westerly

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Blizzardof82]

I wouldn't pay much attention to those charts. The precipitation will be mainly rain, maybe snow on high ground up north for a while.

We will see

 

Euro4 12z keeps the idea of at least a brief spell of snow Saturday

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by Blizzardof82

[skadi]

Dreadful ECM for coldies. All these warmer uppers will soon be in Vladivostok at this rate. Never known a winter like it! I know i keep saying it haha.

Forgotten about the pre 2008 winters? Now that was a dreadful period, tbh. This is only one winter and not even finished, btw. Who knows, Februari and March are still ahead of us. And how many times has been stated here, the pattern can't stay like this forever.  Each day works more in our favor for change. I might annoy a bunch of summer lovers (though I would dearly miss it as well)  but I keep wondering if this could be a summerless year... And then straight off to a record breaking winter...

[phil nw.]

A tough time continues for snow and cold lovers with this relentless cyclonic pattern continuing to show on all runs for the first week to 10 days of February.

Plenty of rain with some gales are forecasted tomorrow and into the weekend with no sign, apart form brief drier interludes, of any real respite further on.

It really is an uphill struggle to see a quick route out of the current pattern with the continued presence  of the Canadian vortex ejecting low after low towards the UK.

 

 

The partial split in the vortex which resulted in our 1 day easterly today looks like filling in again with the block further east unable to affect our weather for the time being.

 

Let's hope that the continuing forecasted wave breaking  into the Stratosphere can eventually disrupt the vortex enough to give us something cold and snowy before the season becomes too advanced.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Forgotten about the pre 2008 winters? Now that was a dreadful period, tbh. This is only one winter and not even finished, btw. Who knows, Februari and March are still ahead of us. And how many times has been stated here, the pattern can't stay like this forever.  Each day works more in our favor for change. I might annoy a bunch of summer lovers (though I would dearly miss it as well)  but I keep wondering if this could be a summerless year... And then straight off to a record breaking winter...

We never know. The only thing that does, is the weather itself! 

I do wonder if we have entered a more 90's phase theme though, as this winter very much squares up to what is was like in my 90's childhood i.e walking to school in wind and rain and constantly being mild! 

Summer however, Im not just being optimistic for the sake of it, but there has been a clear correlation of good summer happening back to back with eachother. Examples being 89 and 90, 75 and 76, 95 could say 94 too, and 2003 could say 2004 for August warmth too and 2006 being the best of at least my lifetime anyway. 2013 was a brilliant summer IMBY and I am hopeful of a good one this year too. Perhaps it is just the jet stream in its normal phase again and will hopefully trend northwards throughout spring and summer and therefore allow HP over us and Europe too. 

Models still say that there is no cold in sight, and as much as I hate the Uncle Barty theme, it looks to be possibly trending towards that as we go into Feb! 

[Cloud 10]

I think the lack of comments re the ECM speaks for itself. Dreadful is being kind, at this rate I'll have to retire my I Survived 88/89 Winter T-Shirt and replace it with a new one for this winter!

 

Troughing stuck near the UK, wind rain in plentiful supply, I think any blocking to the east is just a nuisance now by stopping any eastwards movement in the pattern. The output is now relentlessly consistent and that's always a bad sign, unless a miracle happens then I think we can write off the next two weeks for anything remotely wintry bar a few hours of slush over the next few days.

 

That takes us to the middle of February, so either the current strat warming delivers a change and we start to see that showing up in next weeks later outputs or we can consign this winter to the scrap heap as just a throwback to some of the horror shows in the past of which there have been many, recent winters have rather skewed the picture somewhat although even in many of those dire winters you'd get the odd northerly toppler or at least a few days of something!

 

How about this one?

 

 

 

Maybe corbyn is getting his February warmth predictions from the CFS. 

 

[Man With Beard]

Not just the UK that is experiencing crazy weather - the rest of Europe has hardly had any snow either this winter. This T240 chart, should it verify, would be staggering warmth for the whole of Europe in the first week of February

 

Of great importance, I think, is to see the High Pressure next to Alaska disappear as it continues to feed cold down its eastern flank from the Arctic into central US/Canada, leading to the steep temperature gradient fueling the jet. It sits there through the entire ECM run and is still there by T240:

Strat warming to the rescue?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think the lack of comments re the ECM speaks for itself. Dreadful is being kind, at this rate I'll have to retire my I Survived 88/89 Winter T-Shirt and replace it with a new one for this winter!

 

Troughing stuck near the UK, wind rain in plentiful supply, I think any blocking to the east is just a nuisance now by stopping any eastwards movement in the pattern. The output is now relentlessly consistent and that's always a bad sign, unless a miracle happens then I think we can write off the next two weeks for anything remotely wintry bar a few hours of slush over the next few days.

 

That takes us to the middle of February, so either the current strat warming delivers a change and we start to see that showing up in next weeks later outputs or we can consign this winter to the scrap heap as just a throwback to some of the horror shows in the past of which there have been many, recent winters have rather skewed the picture somewhat although even in many of those dire winters you'd get the odd northerly toppler or at least a few days of something!

Nick i have said this time and time again.That Russian High is absolutely awful news for UK cold.Even when it does retrogress far enough west to benefit the UK it very rarely sticks around long enough to bring long term cold.Im aware its the favoured option for the South East for obvious reasons but if it doesnt get far enough west its disasterous and nearly always ends up eating away large chunks of winter with the UK stuck in no mans land at the mercy of the slow moving Atlantic systems .FWIW I ALWAYS watch for the emergence of a russian anticyclone as a MAJOR negative as we approach the winter months.Give me a strong Greenland high any day of the week.The pattern for the next 10 days MINIMUM is set and its a wet one.

Im going to stick with my theory of a very cold spring again this year with masses of blocking across Greenland as we head into mid march/April,it doesnt cut the mustard for me though and im sure many others.

Thats my last post for the most vile winter i have EVER known,and im 40!

No idea what summer will bring this year but my god we are long overdue some drier weather at some point...

Good luck to all the NW members for the rest of the year we'll all be back in November,hopefully the weather gods will not put us through ANYTHING like what we have endured this time round,for a long time...

[Paul]

Can we keep this to the models please

[bluearmy]

The point is that there is no chance of a greeny ridge from the atlantic appearing within the next two weeks as there hasn't been for the past two months. We were close to the russian block bringing proper winter to our shores. You need to deal with the reality of the hemispheric set up we have rather than what would be ideal.

[Newberryone]

We never know. The only thing that does, is the weather itself! 

I do wonder if we have entered a more 90's phase theme though, as this winter very much squares up to what is was like in my 90's childhood i.e walking to school in wind and rain and constantly being mild! 

Summer however, Im not just being optimistic for the sake of it, but there has been a clear correlation of good summer happening back to back with eachother. Examples being 89 and 90, 75 and 76, 95 could say 94 too, and 2003 could say 2004 for August warmth too and 2006 being the best of at least my lifetime anyway. 2013 was a brilliant summer IMBY and I am hopeful of a good one this year too. Perhaps it is just the jet stream in its normal phase again and will hopefully trend northwards throughout spring and summer and therefore allow HP over us and Europe too. 

Models still say that there is no cold in sight, and as much as I hate the Uncle Barty theme, it looks to be possibly trending towards that as we go into Feb! 

Have I missed something because all the models for the next week to possibly 10 days seem to be showing anything but an Uncle Barty theme?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Have I missed something because all the models for the next week to possibly 10 days seem to be showing anything but an Uncle Barty theme?

It was almost inevitable given the profile to the North west im afraid.I think most of us who have been round the block saw the Feb outlook as soon as it became aparent the scandy high was getting shunted east...

[Frosty.]

Have I missed something because all the models for the next week to possibly 10 days seem to be showing anything but an Uncle Barty theme?

Yeah it looks very unsettled to me, windy, rainy with average temps.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Have I missed something because all the models for the next week to possibly 10 days seem to be showing anything but an Uncle Barty theme?

Think you've missed a lot! low pressure to the NW, high pressure over the Med and Europe... Albeit the lows are taking a track more or less over us. but realistically, I think we will see a bartlett progress through Mid February.

Edited January 30, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[tinybill]

Think you've missed a lot! low pressure to the NW, high pressure over the Med and Europe... Albeit the lows are taking a track more or less over us. but realistically, I think we will see a bartlett progress through Mid February.

heavy rain , high winds,flooding.poss 1nch  or  more  of  rain !!!!

[Troubleatmill]

Looking at the ECM and GEM at t240 I dont think ive seen such agreement between two models at that distance before, quite amazing as far as model agreement goes, thought I had clicked on the GEM twice by accident! Not for cold but would be intersting to see if they have it sussed going forward so we can learn from where we are now for future

Edited January 30, 2014 by Nicholas B