Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[MR EXTREMES]

Tonights ECM...

Capture.PNG

That's a beautiful garden path

[bluearmy]

The 'gulf runner' on ECM op is a mean feature on the ens. Even if the block does reassert itself, that system coming up off the eastern seaboard will really deepen on contact with the PFj and we will likely be back to square 1.

[Argyle1980]

Gfs at 144 is the same as ECM and ukmo.

I'm always holding on to hope.

[Argyle1980]

But then sticks his ground and goes zonal!

[snowbob]

Well it's a start

If you think that gfs has the most easterly bias

So the fact it hasn't just bulldozed through the block on the 18z is something to watch.

Soon find out on the 0z if it's just a bit of a tease from models this evening.

Hoping for at least one of them to continue the signal.

[Timmytour]

Something from FI that's nevertheless representative of what's been, what is and what is shortly to come.....


 
 

[Argyle1980]

We still have February don't we!.

If that high can shift north (Scandi /Iceland )after 144 then I think it's game on.

It's still all to play for.

Keep your faith people and take care.

Amen.

[Blake]

 

Tomorrow should show this breaking off on the GFS 0z, 6z and 12z. Would bring a short-lived easterly for next Friday. Need heights to become stronger to the NE to send the main area of LP to the NW/W to the SE. Colder air should then find its way to the UK but at the moment, nothing cold enough showing to bring snowfall.

[Richie V]

Good lord, clutching at the extreme lol. Folks, that eastern euro block is two thirds of the problem. It WILL NOT retrogress with the heavy cold progged for NE Canada / US. for any chance of a decent cold spell now you need this block to be blasted right back into russia and hope the jet weakens on the back of a very deep low here. Without this the deep cold is likely going nowhere from US / CAN. Weakened jet on the back of a huge low with the scandi / Ukraine high shoved back east to allow steep ridging toward Greenland is the best hope now. That block to our NE needs to do one and fast!

G' night.

 

Tomorrow should show this breaking off on the GFS 0z, 6z and 12z. Would bring a short-lived easterly for next Friday. Need heights to become stronger to the NE to send the main area of LP to the NW/W to the SE. Colder air should then find its way to the UK but at the moment, nothing cold enough showing to bring snowfall.

[The Eagle]

Models continue to be pretty dire tbh but looks like some fun in Ireland on Friday night, might get a half decent snowfall.

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by The Eagle

[KTtom]

Once again I'm amazed by the obsession with the block to the east in terms of getting cold into the UK...its not going to happen, all that block has done is left us on the milder side and continues to into the foreseeable....we need low heights to the east IMO if we are to slvage at least one cold spell this winter otherwise its pointless the models running, they had may as well keep posting the day 8 chart from ECM...which incidentally is the same as day 4,5,6,.........

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by KTtom

[Jason M]

Zzzzzzzonal

All models and all ensemble members at almost very timescale show exactly the same thing.

I found one very brief northerly and a couple of warm highs to our SE very deep in FI.

So between GFS, METO ECM, GEM, NAVGEM, GEFS, GEM ensembles not one interesting chart this morning.

A stand out feature of the pattern is the warmth over mainland Europe. The temperature profile on some of the ensemble members will be terrible for the ski resorts with uppers plus zero all the way up to Finland. I hope any polar bears can find a glacier mint, because there won't be much ice.

We're not out of January yet and its easy to forget that, but the output is as bad this morning as I've ever seen. Luckily the only way is up from here.

[Frosty.]

Another very disturbed Gfs 00z op run, it's really a case of spot the difference from 24 hours ago. The fact is, the atlantic is just proving too strong this winter, just sheer bad luck that the cold block was not close enough and the orientation not quite right, just plain unlucky for me and my fellow coldies. Once again, there is not even a sniff that high pressure will be building across the uk in the coming weeks, it's round 2 of the stormy atlantic onslaught with the jet powering up once again. So, it's more flooding, more storm damage and snow generally limited to northern hills & mountains but with cold air occasionally digging further south and east but southern uk flirting with milder air at times, scotland looks rather colder for most of the time with a higher risk of frost, ice and some snow, the snow mainly on high ground though.

Edited January 30, 2014 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

whilst some are pleading to lose the block to our east, one has to deal with whats likely rather than what one would like. the point here is where will that block go if it does decide to drift off. The current trend is for it to sink southeast and encourage a se euro ridge. You can see from the ecm op today what that probably means. Thats is an awfully long way to cold and probably the end of any chance of a wintry spell his side of march. if the block stays to our east then there is always the chance that the upstream pattern changes to allow the atlantic to undercut effectively. The status quo leaves us where we've been for weeks now but i think that given we're at the beginning of feb, thats the better option.

[Weather-history]

Zzzzzzzonal

Is it zonal?Zonal to me is the movement of weather systems from west to east. It looks to me especially ECM , a huge cyclonic block in the North Atlantic with daughter lows running under the parent low but nothing is moving from west to east. Hence why we are not getting any northerly topplers and brief ridges between systems. It's not good and reminds me of January 1937.

[forecaster]

Is it zonal?

Zonal to me is the movement of weather systems from west to east.

It looks to me especially ECM , a huge cyclonic block in the North Atlantic with daughter lows running under the parent low but nothing is moving from west to east. Hence why we are not getting any northerly topplers and brief ridges between systems.

It's not good and reminds me of January 1937.

 

The winter so far in 250hPa zonal wind anomalies:

 

 

 

Not an easy pattern to break due to positive feedbacks within the system. 

[Snow Grain]

Another very disturbed Gfs 00z op run, it's really a case of spot the difference from 24 hours ago. The fact is, the atlantic is just proving too strong this winter, just sheer bad luck that the cold block was not close enough and the orientation not quite right, just plain unlucky for me and my fellow coldies. Once again, there is not even a sniff that high pressure will be building across the uk in the coming weeks, it's round 2 of the stormy atlantic onslaught with the jet powering up once again. So, it's more flooding, more storm damage and snow generally limited to northern hills & mountains but with cold air occasionally digging further south and east but southern uk flirting with milder air at times, scotland looks rather colder for most of the time with a higher risk of frost, ice and some snow, the snow mainly on high ground though.

Round 2?

[cyclonic happiness]

I suppose the only upside to the 0z run is that the polar vortex finally starts to break down over North America in deep FI. That would surely lead to a pattern change here?

[Snow Shoes]

Round 2?

Feels more like round 12

[Timmytour]

The latest GFS still offering no respite for places such as Somerset next weekend...

But there are differences in the mode of delivery with apparently a little less progression...

18z (6am)

 

0z (six hours earlier)

Edited January 30, 2014 by Timmytour

[stodge]

Morning all

 

The weekend's storm looks to be settling just off the northern coast of Ireland with the strongest winds over Ireland, Wales and western England with frontal rain followed (I suspect and contrary to the morning forecast) by showers.

 

The key difference this morning between GFS and ECM is, as has already been remarked elsewhere, the eastward migration of LP systems from the former and much less so from the latter.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014013000/ECM1-120.GIF

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013000/gfs-0-120.png?0

 

GFS slightly more progressive in breaking through the block which sends a ridge back into Scandinavia as a final gesture of defiance (so it would seem).

 

In distant FI, again as reported, the vortex appears to be pretty much done with HP building over Canada and Greenland - a different evolution from yesterday so a long way from anything approaching certainty but something to watch and those suggesting a pattern change in the second half of February certainly aren't out of the game yet.

[SLEETY]

Zzzzzzzonal

All models and all ensemble members at almost very timescale show exactly the same thing.

I found one very brief northerly and a couple of warm highs to our SE very deep in FI.

So between GFS, METO ECM, GEM, NAVGEM, GEFS, GEM ensembles not one interesting chart this morning.

A stand out feature of the pattern is the warmth over mainland Europe. The temperature profile on some of the ensemble members will be terrible for the ski resorts with uppers plus zero all the way up to Finland. I hope any polar bears can find a glacier mint, because there won't be much ice.

We're not out of January yet and its easy to forget that, but the output is as bad this morning as I've ever seen. Luckily the only way is up from here.

you obviously weren't around for 88/89 winter,that really was worse than anything this winter if your talking mildyuck

 

 

still i would in all honestly take that set-up from/88/89 winter now,anything than this never ending rain,with no end in site according to todays model runs,

Edited January 30, 2014 by SLEETY

[North-Easterly Blast]

Is it zonal?Zonal to me is the movement of weather systems from west to east.It looks to me especially ECM , a huge cyclonic block in the North Atlantic with daughter lows running under the parent low but nothing is moving from west to east. Hence why we are not getting any northerly topplers and brief ridges between systems.It's not good and reminds me of January 1937.

Yes, during January 1937 there was a lot of blocking to the east of the UK, and a huge cyclonic block to the west of the UK, and there was no trough disruption to allow the block to the east to influence the UK, until it finally came together for a few days at the end of the month.  February that year wasn't anything to write home about but it did have a good cold March to follow on.

 

Typical, a block to the east doesen't guarantee cold for the UK, but neither does zonality guarantee mild, it is only its orientation that does:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840116.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif

 

That sort of zonality is a model watcher's dream, and among the best setups for the UK, and quite often including this month north Scotland have done OK, whereas anywhere south of Scotland at least this month has been just bile and a pile of pants.

[Jason M]

Is it zonal?Zonal to me is the movement of weather systems from west to east. It looks to me especially ECM , a huge cyclonic block in the North Atlantic with daughter lows running under the parent low but nothing is moving from west to east. Hence why we are not getting any northerly topplers and brief ridges between systems. It's not good and reminds me of January 1937.

January 1937? Blimey, how old are you ;-)Looking ahead I'm thinking we are looking at 1988 as something similar with a potential persistent belt of high pressure to our SE and very mild temps as feb goes on.I do agree with BA though that whilst I'd rather that Russian high not be there it is and we just need to try an squeeze an easterly later in the month.Maybe only a 20% chance but if we got lucky a dramatic easterly with deep cold could occur in the second half of the month.More likely though is an early spring with a zonal Bartlett later becoming a full on Bartlett which would at least be dry.Edit: I was around in 88 sleety. Remember it well. The full horror of that winter has left deep scars :-) it was very warm but it wasn't vile like this winter has been Edited January 30, 2014 by Jason M

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z T+54

 

 

 

About as good as it gets once again in the short term - really is strawclutching only 50% chance for ppn at low levels I suppose but Pennines down to Derbyshire - Leicestershire might be in for a surprise.

 

It's a washing machine cycle of LP right up to T156 though.

 

 

Ian