Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Bobby]

Also the NMM 5km is available for the whole UK region on Meteociel now, coool

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=0&map=5

[cooling climate]

As long as charts like this from the GFS at t216 hardly FI are still forecast

then I remain encouraged that amplification from this wave 2 warming will

bring results and again I would say do not trust the models beyond t144.

Agreed the forecast from the ECM strat charts is not as strong but it is still

there and would still be the strongest wave 2 we have seen this winter.

The 10 day t240 chart at 30mb is also quite encouraging and certainly to me

anyway shows that nothing is set in stone.

[mulzy]

Even though I'm a 'coldie', I would take this chart.

 

 

If we're not going to have cold and snowy weather, it might as well be dry, warm and pleasant!

[Summer Sun]

Even though I'm a 'coldie', I would take this chart.

 

 

If we're not going to have cold and snowy weather, it might as well be dry, warm and pleasant!

 

CFS also showing high pressure influencing more come mid Feb

 

 

An early taste of spring for many for a time IF It came off given the amount of rain we've had this winter I'm sure most would take the above if we can't get any cold and snow

[draztik]

Things better change and get a move on sharpish if we want a winter.

one can only hope Bobby; unfortunately, looking at GFS today, the forecast jet stream looks set to sink south of the UK into February, which will continue to inflict lows running into the UK before heading N, as a continental block looks to be established into this period. Unusual to see such cold air as far south in the Atlantic by t132, this of course does us no favours, only fueling an already fired up jet.

GEFS temp anomaly t132

Our problem seems to stem from what is happening in North America ( which has been the case all winter ). Cold air continuing to leak out into the North Atlantic, which helps to add more fuel, and the relentless jet will just continue to strengthen. This is highlighted by the day 10-15 temp anomaly from ecm ext & into day 13 GEFS

Edited January 29, 2014 by draztik

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

As long as charts like this from the GFS at t216 hardly FI are still forecast29.01.14.pngthen I remain encouraged that amplification from this wave 2 warming willbring results and again I would say do not trust the models beyond t144.Agreed the forecast from the ECM strat charts is not as strong but it is stillthere and would still be the strongest wave 2 we have seen this winter.ecm 29.01.14.gifThe 10 day t240 chart at 30mb is also quite encouraging and certainly to meanyway shows that nothing is set in stone.30 mb 29.01.14.gif

Completely agree cc . The wave activity is there for all to see on the ecm and that should rock the vortex again especially given the time of year. Im going for a week of atlantic starting friday then all change. Time will tell

[cooling climate]

Better profile over the pole at t120 with the vortex over northeastern

Siberia not so quick to move west.

[Bobby]

one can only hope Bobby; unfortunately, looking at GFS today, the forecast jet stream looks set to sink south of the UK into February, which will continue to inflict lows running into the UK before heading N, as a continental block looks to be established into this period. Unusual to see such cold air as far south in the Atlantic by t132, this of course does us no favours, only fueling an already fired up jet.

GEFS temp anomaly t132

Our problem seems to stem from what is happening in North America ( which has been the case all winter ). Cold air continuing to leak out into the North Atlantic, which helps to add more fuel, and the relentless jet will just continue to strengthen. This is highlighted by the day 10-15 temp anomaly from ecm ext & into day 13 GEFS

 

Yep that's been the main thorn in our side this winter, the relentless Canadian cyclone cannon. Looks like heading into February we'll be inbetween cold airmass and warm airmass, low pressure and high pressure (relative to average). The ideal setup for lots of rain bearing depressions swinging up from the SW bringing lots of more problematic rain.

Edited January 29, 2014 by Bobby

[stodge]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012912/gfs-0-72.png?12

 

Saturday's storm winding up nicely on the GFS 12Z Operational output. Very strong winds for Ireland and presumably Wales and SW England from that before we even get to the rain.

 

High-res perhaps slightly drier than the 06Z down to fewer secondary features but that may not mean much.

 

http://meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2014012912/UW72-21.GIF?29-17

 

UKMO at the same point - fractionally further north and fractionally deeper but close enough. The evolution on UKMO after that looks a little odd to my eye.

[cooling climate]

The strat warming out to t240 is intensified on the 12z.It is not worth

looking beyond this as the charts are jumping around all over the place.

It will be interesting to see where the ECM sits tomorrow.

As I said earlier the GFS 12Z offers much better profile over the Arctic

in the earlier time frames with better heights and the vortices staying

on the Siberian side a trend that I think will increase.The rest of the

run in low res is one for the bin.

As for the UKMO it is still forcing the Siberian vortices westward at

t120 which does not look right to me and I would expect to see the opposite

with the vortices staying over the Siberian side.

[Ali1977]

The METO don't seem to think much with regards strat warming, however it looks pretty substantial at day 10, if it then takes 2 weeks to effect weather on the surface it will cold by the 23rd of Feb..................Simple!!!

[stodge]

GEM looks very stormy indeed and certainly not mild.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012912/gem-0-240.png?12

 

The Atlantic LPs are barrelling into central Europe at this point on a southerly jet. I think that chart could certainly offer snow to higher elevations.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012912/gfs-0-240.png?12

 

GFS, needless to say, nowhere near as interested or progressive. Unsettled of course but milder and drier for southern and south-eastern areas. Indeed, though to nowhere near the same extent as the 06Z, the FI output hints at warmer conditions with pressure rises to the south.

[bluearmy]

The strat warming out to t240 is intensified on the 12z.It is not worthlooking beyond this as the charts are jumping around all over the place.It will be interesting to see where the ECM sits tomorrow.As I said earlier the GFS 12Z offers much better profile over the Arcticin the earlier time frames with better heights and the vortices stayingon the Siberian side a trend that I think will increase.The rest of therun in low res is one for the bin.As for the UKMO it is still forcing the Siberian vortices westward att120 which does not look right to me and I would expect to see the oppositewith the vortices staying over the Siberian side.

 

The problem with the strat developments cc is as follows:  the heights (rather than the temps) show the upper strat vortex being stretched from canada to siberia once the split has gone post day 10. thats not a bad thing except we see energy being exchanged between the two areas within a single elongated vortex. no split and experience of these exchanges in vortex centre tends to be reflected in a strong atlantic jet as the low heights move back and forth. the only possible positive i can currently see for coldies is that the jet is sinking further south and it is feasible that the trop vortex could be suppressed by the aleutian block to lay canada/s greenland/n scandi and introduce even colder zonality with secondary features running w to e, giving possible surprises on their nothern flank. i know that heights are predicted to rise over se europe which may not be a disaster in the above scenario as long as the 'runners' turn ne after tehy have passed the meridian. just cant see anything else over the next forntnight fo those chasing the white stuff over lowland britain.

Edited January 29, 2014 by bluearmy

[stodge]

The problem with the strat developments cc is as follows:  the heights (rather than the temps) show the upper strat vortex being stretched from canada to siberia once the split has gone post day 10. thats not a bad thing except we see energy being exchanged between the two areas within a single elongated vortex. no split and experience of these exchanges in vortex centre tends to be reflected in a strong atlantic jet. the only possible positive i can currently see for coldies is that the jet has sunk further south and it is feasible that the trop vortex could be suppressed by the aleutian block to lay canada/s greenland/n scandi and introduce cold zonality with secondary features running w to e and giving possible surprises on their nothern flank. i know that heights are predicted to rise over se europe which may not be a disaster in the above scenario as long as the 'runners' turn ne after tehy have passed the meridian. just cant see anything else over the next forntnight fo those chasing the white stuff over lowland britain.

I think GEM offers something along those lines this evening.

[bluearmy]

I think GEM offers something along those lines this evening.

 

but without the vortex laying closer to our north, the air is nowhere near cold enough to bring anything other than rainfall, runners or not.

[skadi]

At t+72: Let the floodgates be opened...

 

 

and at t+120 the low gets squeezed like a tube of toothpaste by the Russian High

Edited January 29, 2014 by skadi

[kev238]

It has been amazing how few cold fantasy charts there have been this season; this really highlights how strong the signals for no cold and snow have been. Of course we have a cold couple of days this week but due to cloud cover mean temperature will probably end up broadly average .

[stodge]

but without the vortex laying closer to our north, the air is nowhere near cold enough to bring anything other than rainfall, runners or not.

I did say in my earlier contribution that I thought snow to higher elevations only was possible with the GEM. The later output actually shows colder uppers coming west into Scotland

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012912/gem-1-234.png?12

 

Possibilities, nothing more.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECM1-72.GIF?29-0

 

Saturday's storm on ECM - closer to UKMO than GFS. The question now is the track - will it cross Ulster or stay to the north of Ireland ?

[shaky]

Very nice ecmwf 120 hour chart!!almost close to an undercut!!if only the 850s were colder we could have been looking at a potential snow event!!

[Tim Bland]

By day 5 the ECM shows the Atlantic hiting a block. Even if the low went south and under there is no cold to tap into unfortunately. I can't recall a winter in internet history that didn't even have some eye candy in the models even if it was watered down to wintry showers nearer the time. What a dire winter

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

[skadi]

Amazing that Russian "Comeback Kid" High

[Cloud 10]

Even though I'm a 'coldie', I would take this chart.

 

 

If we're not going to have cold and snowy weather, it might as well be dry, warm and pleasant!

 

I'm assuming ensemble 4 looked a bit different when you posted it. 

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECH1-168.GIF?29-0

 

HUM..........................

 

S

[Summer Sun]

T168 from ECM shows another deep low coming our way with yet more flooding possible

 

 

[bluearmy]

ecm op making interesting patterns to our ne at day 7 re advecting some cold back into europe. given that each run is trending to dig the subsequent mid range trough further se before it all heads northeast, there may be some interest out there but we are a fair way from anything concrete just yet.