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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

If you ask me its east we want the PV ending up! At least we will have a shot at better heights to the NW for a change.  IMO the good old Scandi / Russian high is as much use as a Bartlett if it doesn't establish itself far enough west and is capable of writing off a good part of winter in terms of cold in the UK as has happened this year...just hope the Atlantic finally smashes through although not looking likely judging by the Mets and ECM32 forecasts.

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Not much mention of the depth of the storm at 96

ECM has it around 955, which means

Storm force winds, rain , hail and snow for the highlands.

The sands of time are beginning to run low on this dire winter

Ive seen a couple of flakes I think in late November - i fear that is all im going to see .......

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

As ever, I feel there are some conflicting posts in here today, the ECM 0z run may not be a snow producer but it is also not a mild run, some days would be cool and others nearer average and that is from a UK wide perspective. The overnight GEFS ensembles spread show most members and the mean T850s heading in the direction indicated above in a post, that is upwards towards something above average in terms of Temperature but this is especially notable by the second week of February so far from a reliable signal at that sort of range. Yes, overall a generally wet picture with parts of the South on the warmer side and cooler farther North again this signal continuing into FI, which we all know can change. Posted Image I believe the above is suggestive of a NW or W flow to start with and perhaps a more SW'rly influence by the second week of February, which is in fact not that unusual to be fair as I remember warm February days in the past. Some snow up North this week but thereafter bar for those with significant elevation on their side, it does look like cold rain alongside some active weather and nothing by way of prolonged dry weather unfortunately. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Whilst you should never take day 6 charts as gospel. It's very hard to go against all the models which show near enough the same solution over Europe.

Heights maintained to the East. Low pressure to the west splitting near the UK but never really enough to pull the block towards us. You could also quite easily see a mild pattern developing if you start to get a warm draw from the south or south west here (February 2008 perhaps).

Still plenty of options long term, mainly relying on what happens to mr blobby's evil Canadian twin brother.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Yesterday's runs were horrible, the 0z's are even worse. Picked out the GFS Control at T384 (I know its well into FI) :

 

post-14819-0-30434600-1390893736_thumb.p

 

However it sums up what is showing on the GEFS, a trend to spool up the PV and sent it more towards our side of the Atlantic. All the patience in the world, taking that chart as a starting point, as of 13 Feb, we will not going be seeing cold before March.

 

Of course that wont happen but trend wise the majority of the ens at that time are showing a similar synoptic. A few have a less stable PV and some have the pattern further north (MLB). One decent chart:

 

post-14819-0-53414200-1390894045_thumb.p

 

I know some will say its pointless looking at D16 charts however I am looking for the next pattern change as I think we are stuck with an Atlantic flow for sometime and it is pretty uninspiring from D6-D15.

 

The temps for the ens, above average mostly after the weekend for London. The op was an outlier on this chart compared to its members for 4-5 days of runs last week and it has shown its worth, as the mean has now been dragged up to the op:

 

post-14819-0-95140300-1390894299_thumb.g

 

ECM and GEM both showing the PV queued up to our west waiting to send wave after wave of energy our way.

 

T240  ECM:  post-14819-0-06129900-1390894391_thumb.g  GEM: post-14819-0-90293700-1390894414_thumb.p

 

Both showing the Russian high very slowly pushed east. Both showing no blocking over the pole that could have prevented the push. I expect them to follow the GEFS suite and the Atlantic will roll through. You can see that eureka moment happen at around T264 on the GFS op:

 

Block still fighting: post-14819-0-26645100-1390894618_thumb.p By T288 the gates are open: post-14819-0-72159600-1390894652_thumb.p

 

So it looks like we are in the worse case scenario, limbo land for about 5-6 days with the block to our east and the Atlantic waiting to our west, for what appears to be the inevitable full zonal onslaught after D11.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

0z summary...

Wet and windy.

The end.

At least it won't be mild..or coldPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Latest EC Monthly runs-up striking positive temp anomalies across all Europe/UK progressively through February after chilly opening gambit, with ensemble means by w/e 26th showing low heights to N/W, (weaker) high to S (Iberia) and SW flow dominating. It's been on the money since early December, so performance through these last few weeks of winter will be very interesting indeed.

I was under the impression it didn't forecast the Scandi high until it was here, though; if I'm right, then surely it was close to a big fail?
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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Last 3 frames of ECM are amazing, in that I don't think I've seen a low pressure system stay pretty much still for so long. The bl00dy thing doesn't move! ....And it's on top of us....get your brollies out.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Yes the precipitation spikes for the SW on the ensembles are quite Incredible, I think this will turn out to probably be the wettest January on record , at least for my part of the country, Also looking like on the 3 months as a whole this Winter will turn out to be one of the mildest on record... Would like to see a dramatic shift in the Models even just to raise a bit of excitement in here , but can't see where it is going to come from, only straw I can clutch is in it's later stages the GFS seem's to be taking the PV much further West,

"The mildest winter on record"

It's a little bit skewed (as i posted last night in another thread). The daytime temps have been a little above average; it's the lack of cold at night that's skewing the temps to make it seem mild. If you think about it we haven't really had many v mild days (12/13c). Daytime temps here have been around 7-9c - Yes, above the norm for January but not overly mild.

I know the stats will prob show it as being a really mild winter but they don't tell the full story.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

If you ask me its east we want the PV ending up! At least we will have a shot at better heights to the NW for a change.  IMO the good old Scandi / Russian high is as much use as a Bartlett if it doesn't establish itself far enough west and is capable of writing off a good part of winter in terms of cold in the UK as has happened this year...just hope the Atlantic finally smashes through although not looking likely judging by the Mets and ECM32 forecasts.

 

Yes, I fear the block to the east is becoming more of a hindrance than an ally, given the proximity of the low heights to the NW, the strong jet and the fact that the block to the east, currently centred over Finland, slips south with no chance of an undercut.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

The models are like barstaff in the Winter Bar, getting ready for last orders.

But I've heard the landlord likes a lock-in....

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

"The mildest winter on record"It's a little bit skewed (as i posted last night in another thread). The daytime temps have been a little above average; it's the lack of cold at night that's skewing the temps to make it seem mild. If you think about it we haven't really had many v mild days (12/13c). Daytime temps here have been around 7-9c - Yes, above the norm for January but not overly mild.I know the stats will prob show it as being a really mild winter but they don't tell the full story.

Incorrect assumption as both mean maxima and minima have been mild this Winter. The coldest day here was just 5.3c on Dec 25th Edited by TonyH
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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Yes, I fear the block to the east is becoming more of a hindrance than an ally, given the proximity of the low heights to the NW, the strong jet and the fact that the block to the east, currently centred over Finland, slips south with no chance of an undercut.

 

Always a danger with blocking to the east isnt it, if its not going to effect us i.e bring us cold air, we really need it gone and get a pattern reset. hopefully that may help move the PV west to east at some point. right now its like waves crashing agianst a sea wall

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Lol, thats not even that its a faux northerly! look at no 2 and how that deep cold pool to the east still cant get into the UK because of the PV over Canada!

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I think perhaps we have to wave the white flag here on this winter, its just one of those which we have seen plenty of in the past although as it stands now this probably takes the Oscar because there were a few opportunities which could have mediated its horror rating. It wasn't the relentless PV to the north which has ruined many a winter but the  PV latched into ne Canada. Overall today solid support across the models for troughing sitting to the west of the UK, block to the east and a stalemate scenario for the foreseeable future. At this point if I was in the UK and offered a late winter spell like those in 2005 and 2006 I'd take it, even though that came at the end of February. The problem is at this moment in time even thats a stretch, and with the strat warming also giving up the ghost theres very little to see what could change the pattern. No doubt some good synoptics will appear in March when the feeling will be if only! So I think we should just expect the worst as we go into February and hope that something eventually does change.

Indeed Nick, time to move on from fanciful thoughts of cold and snow, what would be truly amazing would be seeing these conditions persist throughout February as I' don't recall a winter from the 40 or so that I can remember well, where all three months were mild and wet without a single spell of cold weather lasting beyond 24 hours. I think this year we could well be seeing a cold late March/April with frequent Northerlies, similar to those awful winters of yesteryear.
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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Just a quick glance and it is a rain fest. Everytime it looks like something might happen, the PV just throws off another lobes at us, and it is game over.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just a quick glance and it is a rain fest... 

Look on the bright side, at least we probably won't have a water shortage this yearPosted Image

 

Models look very unsettled, very windy at times with temps close to average with occasional milder and colder intervals.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

For what it maybe worth nothing can change until the upper trough extending from the Candian vortex out over the UK alters and there is nothing to suggest this will happen. Take a look at any of the 500mb anomaly charts, they have been totally consistent with this pattern for dasy and days. Plenty of snow in the Alps but most locals use the phrase, westerly winds not good . So not just the UK having no major cold. Mind you I cannot complain about the snow here in Wengen, plenty of it and good quality, much as Julian (J10) has posted in the Alps thread.

Yes, John a SAD winter for the UK ( Snowless And Depressing ) Even in the Alps the longer term charts do not look that great. However, we had 30 cm of new snowfall last night, so going to enjoy the next few days of the snowy spell.. Glad you have had your snow fix. Has the sun shone ?

 C

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
Good morning. Here is the report from the midnight runs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 28th 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models remain adamant that the very unsettled weather is to persist over the UK for the next two weeks at least. In the short term our current depression near North Wales this morning continues to drift slowly South while maintaining a complex structure and therefore spinning spells of rain and showers across the UK with winds switching Easterly for all areas later tomorrow and into Thursday when colder air could turn any showers left to snow, especially over higher ground and in the East. By Friday a new Atlantic systems pushes a new trough in from the West with a spell of increasing Southerly winds and spells of rain falling as snow on Northern high ground for a time as it becomes less cold.
 
GFS then shows a windy and cold weekend with strong and blustery Westerly winds and squally showers of rain and hail and snow on hills as deep Low pressure resides to the North of the UK. Through next week sees more Low pressure areas swinging NE to the West and NW of Britain with each bringing their own version of strong winds and rain followed by showers in temperatures never far from the seasonal average and strong winds at times. The flooding issues across parts of the UK will be exaggerated further by all this rain should it verify.
 
The GFS Ensembles continue to back the story of the operational indicating further unsettled weather fuelled by Atlantic depressions. there will be copious rainfall over all areas at times and with temperatures rising somewhat later as the orientation of winds swing more from West to SW.
 
UKMO closes it's run with the end of next weekend looking unsettled with an unstable SW flow with showers and the prospect of more general rain later as a new disturbance is shown to be moving NE towards the SW of the UK.
 
GEM today shows a parent depression anchoring itself in mid Atlantic spinning small but active depressions East and North across the UK at times next week with spells of rain followed by showers likely for all in sometimes strong South or SW winds.
 
NAVGEM also shows a similar structure to the synoptics next week though it does hold meaningful Low pressure slightly further away from the UK keeping the worst of flooding rains away with more occasional bursts interspersed with some drier spells especially towards the East and SE.
 
ECM shows an increasingly disturbed period again next week following an unsettled weekend. After a brief respite early in the week Low pressure pushing up from the SW becomes part of a major centre in mid Atlantic later with spells of rain and showers on active troughs crossing NE over all areas later next week with no doubt more flooding issues likely but with compensatory temperatures close to average at worst.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today confirm the operational's sequence well with the likelihood from its ensembles of a deep Low pressure out to the NW and closing in on the UK with the resultant SW airflow keeping the UK wet and often  windy but never overly cold.
 
 
The Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow moving from West to East close to Southern Britain or over France throughout with a strengthening flow hinted at again in the second half of the run.
 
In Summary this morning the charts have yet another troublesome look to them as all models show their own version of foretelling a very unsettled period with spells of heavy rain followed by showers and blustery winds from the SW. The one consolation South or SW strong winds will maintain temperatures close to average or indeed above at times and frost, ice and snow looks very unlikely beyond this week. Flooding will definitely remain a feature in parts of the UK and for those trying to tackle the flooding issues on the Somerset levels will have their work continue to be thwarted by the additional rains not required. 
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

We are all feeling the same frustration no doubt. Even when we try pick the crumbs of comfort the Canadian PV slaps our hands and punches us in the stomach.

We can't even get a decent transient snow event and even the possible wintriness of 30/31st has disappeared this morning with none of the models bringing in colder air with that low and the remaining interest in the ensembles has all but disappeared.

I think this is going to go down as one of the worse Winters I can remember. Not single flake of snow, not even sleet. Virtually no frost, little sunshine and relentless wind and rain.

 

The only chink of light I can see is that there is still a signal for a diving low but it seems any signal for a trigger low is quickly overridden by the relentless Canadian PV that seems impossible to shift or break down.

The other light at the end of tunnel is an end to this sham of a Winter isn't so many weeks away.

Of course if things change (and although things look bleak now we all know how quickly things can change) I will still be among the first buying a ticket for the next ride. Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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