Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[swfc]

Wow very fine margins hear but at 98 hrs on the 18z things ie low and disruption slightly further south and atlantic ridge a bit less amplified.2nd atlantic low all but gone ,looks much better for now!!

Edited January 26, 2014 by swfc

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=108&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

 

best case scenario with no phasing on the 18z.

 

Would need to see this on the euros tomorrow though.

 

Interesting to see what the 18z NAVGEM & JMA change to.

[tight isobar]

I think the 18z gfs, only further emphasis the cross model confusion and grip getting. A far more enthusiastic run thus far.more chop change almost certain.

[Ice Day]

The 18z is going 'off-piste' here at 126.  Surely the Pub Run is not spotting a new trend is it????

 

[snowbob]

Ironic thing now is that all models are like the 18 z pub run at the moment

Consistency always has to start with one run sometime

Could be this run

Edited January 26, 2014 by snowbob

[nick sussex]

The 18z is going 'off-piste' here at 126.  Surely the Pub Run is not spotting a new trend is it????

 

Sometimes and one notable incident was the implosion of last years December easterly, in that instance it was the first model to pick up on a shortwave to the north of Norway that started the slide! here its not phasing that shortwave with the low heights associated with the PV which gives some areas a better chance of snow.

 

It would be a massive turnaround if the Euros had made a complete pigs ear of the deepening low especially as theres very good ensemble support for that in the ECM postage stamps.

 

I do hope its on the right track , anyway we'll have to see what the Euros do in the morning.

Edited January 26, 2014 by nick sussex

[Timmytour]

 

It appears to be game over tonight in this awful winter were having-

 

The slider was setting up perfect until we got the phasing with the small system rushing off the east coast.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012612/ECH1-120.GIF?26-0

 

Cold, with maybe a wintry shower in the NE in the day 4-5 frame, post that atlantic gets squeezed against the block to the east, but not enough SE motion & to much NE motion means any battle ground is way up to Scandi

 

 

Blocking remains over Svalbard & northern Scandi, so more opportunities down the line- however not a lot on offer tonight.

 

S

I must admit ive already had enough of this winter .

 

Coming at the end of a period where I have been becoming increasingly pessimistic about our chances of real winter, this negative post from SM should just about kill off any hope for me as well....but! I do remember Steve getting a bit negative last year only for us to get snow 11 days later! So I will feast on these crumbs of comfort!

Seriously though, I do take comfort from the fact that, though this winter hasn't delivered thus far, it's a far cry from the winters of despair we had earlier in the century. I still believe that we are in a run of colder snowier winters which doesn't mean, just as we had the odd cold period in those earlier winters, we won't experience there type of winters once in a while where it doesn't quite come off.

Edited January 26, 2014 by Timmytour

[MisfitDog3]

This Winter has been screaming cold late Feb and March for a week or so. The Atlantic rules currently but the threats of the Russian High and strat warming will do something. ..just not yet.

[cooling climate]

Nice and snowy for England and wales on tonights 18z run at t150,

t156 time frame.This is the 18z though so it should come with a

health warning but I have been saying I would expect to see the

pattern amplify in the mid to extended range.Opposite to what the

models have been showing.

[mulzy]

The pub run is trying to keep the dream alive!  We all live in hope...

 

 

[SMU]

 

 

Coming at the end of a period where I have been becoming increasingly pessimistic about our chances of real winter, this negative post from SM should just about kill off any hope for me as well....but! I do remember Steve getting a bit negative last year only for us to get snow 11 days later! So I will feast on these crumbs of comfort!

Seriously though, I do take comfort from the fact that, though this winter hasn't delivered thus far, it's a far cry from the winters of despair we had earlier in the century. I still believe that we are in a run of colder snowier winters which doesn't mean, just as we had the odd cold period in those earlier winters, we won't experience there type of winters once in a while where it doesn't quite come off.

 

LOL reverse psychology -

 

Its just so frustrating so many near misses-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012618/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

 

GFS going for a Greenland high / svalbard link up -  GEM 00z looked like this / 00 z NAVGEM- also

 

All fingers & everything else crossed - even though as we found last year we still have 8 weeks left to go....

 

S

[Ice Day]

To quote Kevin Keegan, I would love it if this run came to fruition.  Stacked with potential and a vast improvement over the ECM.  Shame it's the GFS though!

 

 

Just need some cold uppers now

Edited January 26, 2014 by Ice Day

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Yes big differences upstream over the poles , hight rises toward Greenland quite early on , very interesting run actually. Told you there would be changes , once the models get to grips with the pattern change along with the wave 2 forecast in a weeks time I think we will be in for some real eye candidate this week.

[Eskimo]

I don't care what anyone says! 18z screams snow potential (albeit marginal) through the entirety of the hi-res! For those who love cold and snow, don't give up, it's an incredibly fickle situation and therefore as stated numerous times, anything can and will happen! 

Edited January 26, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[karlos1983]

and not to be outdone, we see a little warming up above from the pub run

 

[dragan]

For why exactly do people dismiss the 18z??? 

Edited January 26, 2014 by dragan

[karlos1983]

For why exactly do people dismiss the 18z??? 

 

no run can be dismissed, trends are the important thing, and the 18z that has just passed in reality has gone against the trend. But who knows what the 00z will show, could be a new trend.

[Mark Bayley]

Die vortex!

That would certainly lead to a tanking -AO (although as always never a guarantee of cold). In the more near term the GFS presents more opportunities for snow then the previous 12zs, allbeit still marginal. Hopefully the 0zs show something similar

Edited January 26, 2014 by Mark Bayley

[bobbydog]

I don't care what anyone says! 18z screams snow potential (albeit marginal) through the entirety of the hi-res! For those who love cold and snow, don't give up, it's an incredibly fickle situation and therefore as stated numerous times, anything can and will happen!

 

 

in space.... no-one can hear you scream.....

 

[Tamara]

an early spot and it may be gone in the morning but the beast stirs over russia and by day 10, the 850 spreads have it approaching poland. we, on the other hand can look forward to a developing shallow mid atlantic trough which will sink the jet further south as the azores ridge pulls west. there is a dynamic whereby the trough to our west sinks se and throws up waa (see day 10 ecm op for a crude representation) which rebuilds the scandi ridge and hopefully draws the russian high west (as the jet drives into europe and begins to advect the flow from east to west.  

 

whilst its disappointing to see the battle lost re this upcoming potential period, there are indeed signs of something to follow and whilst the ens means probably show the atlantic blasting through, i doubt that what will happen.

Yes, thank you - some understanding !!   I agree it may well 'appear' to fade as a signal which risks further reader agitation, but the upcoming period has more going for it than seems apparent at face value 

 

The shorter term is understandably a disappointment in terms of what could be in deepest winter, but the point is we are cutting our cloth with what is available this season, which is much more limited than recent years. Its this that *should* be forming the basis of expectation

 

damianslaw post earlier I have just seen is, imo, an excellent appraisal and sums up exactly the situation

 

 

Sometimes - well all times I think it pays to look at the wider picture and background signals to get a feel for how things may pan out rather than getting hung up on model run to model run, particularly when a pattern change upstream is taking place - as projected to happen now (albeit a rather slow affair... the very start is already under way..)

 

There are a number of factors which longer term are very good ingredients for a colder less atlantic influenced outlook.

 

These are -

 

1. Development of a strong robust NE pacific high which importantly in combination with strong heights over Russia will maintain a split PV and enable heights to build over the Pole. These heights will put pressure on the PV sinking it further westwards more towards the north of Canada as opposed to NE Canada/West Greenland.

2. As a result of the above, a major change in the pattern over USA/Canada with a trough over western parts and consequently strong heights building over the east - meaning less energy coming off the eastern seaboard.

3. An azores high which is expected to migrate away to the southwest which in turn will pull the Jetstream further southwards.

4. The effects of the above will no doubt cause the following to happen:

 

1. The atlantic trough to back further west aiding warm air advection into scandi promoting height rises over Svalbard region.

2. The effect of the above will force the trough on a SE path into Europe (trough disruption) and consequently conditions will be ripe for heights to build to our east/ne in a position far more favourable to a colder pattern here.

Edited January 26, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Mucka]

JMA still very progressive tonight.

 

[Stuie]

Die vortex!

That would certainly lead to a tanking -AO (although as always never a guarantee of cold). In the more near term the GFS presents more opportunities for snow then the previous 12zs, allbeit still marginal. Hopefully the 0zs show something similar

Jeez, for some reason that screams watch what you wish for. Not to be taken as info but Beast from the East springs to mind.

Edited January 26, 2014 by StuieW

[bluearmy]

JMA still very progressive tonight.

 

 

 

looks much the same. the navgem on the the other hand ..........

[shaky]

JMA still very progressive tonight.

 

better than the 12z by quite a bit!!compare it and you will see that things are slightly further west and also that low to the northwest is undercutting a bit more to the west of ireland!!

[SMU]

ALL 18z runs except the NAVGEM have swung the slider low back west & at a more acute angle- that's the 18z GFS,JMA 84 18z (v12z) + the ensembles & control-

 

interesting....

S