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Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

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Not the worst set of runs ever. There are still chances of sleet and snow in the week ahead and that's more than most of us have had all winter. i think the temperature anomaly charts for Europe that Summer Sun posts up have proved to be particularly accurate over the past few weeks and with the look of them now, hopefully that continues.

Putting faith in the UKMO wasn't going to work. Not the the Express went with that! <runs for cover> Posted Image

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Putting faith in the UKMO wasn't going to work. Not the the Express went with that! <runs for cover> Posted Image

I think the ukmo is a top model, 8 runs in a row gunning for a cold week ahead while the other models flip flopped, the week ahead will turn progressively wintry, much colder than so far this winter, especially further north & east...the shackles are about to be broken on this very poor winter so far..Amen

Edited by Frosty.

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I think what we're seeing is the models inability to judge how a block to the east effects us and judging how unusually cold the Atlantic air masses are there could be few surprises over the next week or so, whilst the uppers are not the lowest we've seen they are certainly cold enough for snow for most of us - and we're getting attacked from both sides. Copious amounts of moisture = heavy snow. For coldies the seas/oceans surrounding us can sometimes be good for generating snow.

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Steve Murr wrote:http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?25-0216 Endless snow for the midlands North & SE / NE in on the act-VERY VERY snowy run from ECM.

Are you including low levels in that Steve, or just the hills? Edited by Paul_1978

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ECM looks a little like the Met update

 

Turning colder midweek with easterly

then a breakdown from the west - still cold with sleet / snow likely in places especially the north and high ground

temperatures returning to average later

 

EWS

 

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Mostly unsettled with cool/cold trough influence for the foreseeable is what I am seeing right now...I am a bit concerned about the yet further potential flooding impacts this could involve for some areas, more so parts of the SW. 

 

Iit were to verify as shown, hopefully it will be more of a showery nature than constant. Whilst snow would help delay any impacts, it would be very unlikely to settle in areas that are still flooded.

 

Still overall...pretty much a wintry mess everywhere going by this afternoons runs, so at least some members (particularly further NE you are) may see some of that special white stuff, even if it were to be temporary in parts. The fact the blocking High to our NE keeps being underplayed, means to me, F.I is still quite early. 

 

Therefore, not too worried this evening and the overall N Hemispheric pattern looks rather positive at this time if it is cold you are seeking :) Hopefully this continues and perhaps eventually more of us living closer to the SW will be on the better side of marginality.

 

Though...a spell of drier weather would as well be welcomed by quite a few I think. We seem to have had a trough influencing our pattern for quite some time now....Posted Image

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Just got in, UKMO done a 360, ECM looks interesting, GEFS better, I have no idea lol. Anyone? ha.

 

Joking aside classic model entropy when we have such a set up. IMO proper cold and snow chances at about 35%. Interesting model watching, even if it is a little frustrating. Some luck needed for those searching for the cold.  

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Are you including low levels in that Steve, or just the hills?

 

Must be the hills because the chart Steve posted just looks quite wet too me, surely too get snowfall from low uppers from the continent, there has to be a significant cold spell there and what we are seeing in the outputs is not a significant cold spell, plus we are approching February now so daytime heating would more than likely turn any snow to rain. 

 

Anyways, its all pointless and irrelevant as the detail will be different on the next run. 

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Just caught up on the latest outputs and the UKMO has gone from best to worst in terms of potential, indeed its pretty awful at T144hrs, always be wary of it when it picks the milder solution at T144hrs rather than the colder one as that's got more chance of verifying but seeing as it was wrong at T72hrs and has been for the last few days lets hope it doesn't suddenly find some reliability!

 

The ECM goes full circle and ends up now todays champion which we will all be cheering on because theres a good chance that might improve further and there could be two good snow events, the GFS improves its earlier 06hrs run and then implodes in the lower resolution output.

 

Overall a lot of uncertainty past T120hrs and more changes likely over the next few days.

Yes, typical that the only time this winter that the UKMO showed the coldest outcome ended up giving it up like that!

I am quite worried about the ECM to be honest, in particular what it shows in the last couple of frames i.e. a pressure rise in the Arctic which seems to push all the Atlantic energy towards us. It may end up as a west based -NAO which can waste more time of this winter. It is FI of course but we don't seem to have much luck this winter.

 

Karyo

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Very little has changed at all - that is if one doesn't chop and change opinions and expectations in line with every chop and change from one model output to anotherPosted Image .

 

The evolution of the pattern to encompass ever tighter trough disruption since the mild zonal spell has been a very gradual one, but it has been a very consistent one. That is in contrast to the swings in model and ensemble output that have been every bit as progressive in modelling the pattern too far east as it has been at the other end of the spectrum on the odd occasion with the more optimistic easterly solutions. In this way it gives a false impression of just what the reality has been (and how such reality is likely to continue).

 

There should be no undue disappointment about the UKMO this evening - its solution of yesterday always looked to make too much of the ridge to the NE too soon. But then it will be what is at the end of this protracted trough disruption tunnel we are travelling through that stands us the best chance of delivering the cold opportunties we look for. On that basis, an easterly a little later, would stand a greater chance of being sustained than any the UKMO has recently suggested

 

More energy transport indeed to be bled downstream from the Canadian blob down the line , much as expected, and the models are falling in a line of agreement with this. Nothing to fear here either as tonights output, f.e, from the ECM illustrates in terms of the overall upper pattern and also some good snow opportunities for the north most especiallyPosted Image

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012512/ECH1-216.GIF?25-0

 

The westward migration and weakening of the Azores High is now being modelled very consistently in the NWP, having transcended from the annals of FI ensemble data. This stands us in good stead for trough disruption phase 2 to start to transition towards phase 3 as a much more amplified pattern over the Pacific works it way afterwards downstream....Good strong poleward ridging of the Aleutian High in evidence on the ECM

 

Slower than many would like as it may be, the current modelling sets us up to still be on course towards proper cold blocking opportunties during February. Again, much as anticipated.

 

Some snow potential even in the coming days to look forward to for some - so a start is being made at last Posted Image

excellent post and absolutely how I see it to.

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its interesting regarding ukmo something like that happend november 2012 start of w2012-2013. It showed cold charts for a few days and then kind of backtracked neara the time. Well lets hope the ecmf improves starting from today.

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Yes, typical that the only time this winter that the UKMO showed the coldest outcome ended up giving it up like that!

I am quite worried about the ECM to be honest, in particular what it shows in the last couple of frames i.e. a pressure rise in the Arctic which seems to push all the Atlantic energy towards us. It may end up as a west based -NAO which can waste more time of this winter. It is FI of course but we don't seem to have much luck this winter.

 

Karyo

You can always bank on the UKMO ditching a colder solution when it goes against the ECM and GFS, its only ever right when its going against those with a milder outcome! Its for that reason that it annoys me and why I call it the misery model !

 

Never sticks to a colder solution that verifies and just sits there waiting to harpoon the mood in here! As for the current modelling I'd be a bit wary of this until the pattern settles down and those changes upstream have had time to feed through properly.

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GEFS 12z are not bad-but i think we can forget any easterly of  substance/duration now.

That UKMO 144 really is so bad its laughable.

I guess the FAX charts will look very different to last night....

Edited by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

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I think the ukmo is a top model, 8 runs in a row gunning for a cold week ahead while the other models flip flopped, the week ahead will turn progressively wintry, much colder than so far this winter, especially further north & east...the shackles are about to be broken on this very poor winter so far..Amen

well said Frosty , loads of cold options on the table beginning tomorrow with possible back edge snow for large parts of the uk. 

post-18134-0-84745500-1390678586_thumb.p

 

i still think the scandi block is being way ,way,way underestimated....across the models from the 00z today FI is 72hrs

 

anyway i have all the 00z at 72 saved to disk,from all 5 models, so come tomorrow ill post a comparison ( tomorrows 00z @48 ) should give a better idea of which models handling things best.

sorts out the wheat from the chaff so to speak

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I don't think people should get too disappointed re the UKMO,  its output would not have brought anything more than  a briefish easterly, low pressure was always likely to move in and the issue still remains as it did last night how much if any trough disruption occurs.

 

I don't see a deep easterly occurring within the next ten days and I think we need to move on from trying to find one because its simply not going to happen, and this is me a hardened coldie saying this!

 

The likeliest solution always has been  a continental flow not desperately cold but sufficient for a decent undercut and really that's still a possibility even with tonights UKMO not interested because the models often make a mess of that type of set up, as for any easterly and the one we'd like to see with deep cold and snow showers that will have to wait but in the meantime there is still the chance of some decent snow depending on the trough disruption.

Edited by nick sussex

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I would have thought that the T120 charts should have been the main focus if it's cold you are after: a genuine snow chance and getting closer to the reliable time-frame. Enjoy the below if you're a coldie, cover the screen if you're a mildie. T144+ and beyond ... how much can we trust it anyway??

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I don't think people should get too disappointed re the UKMO,  its output would not have brought anything more than  a briefish easterly, low pressure was always likely to move in and the issue still remains as it did last night how much if any trough disruption occurs.

 

I don't see a deep easterly occurring within the next ten days and I think we need to move on from trying to find one because its simply not going to happen, and this is me a hardened coldie saying this!

 

The likeliest solution always has been  a continental flow not desperately cold but sufficient for a decent undercut and really that's still a possibility even with tonights UKMO not interested because the models often make a mess of that type of set up, as for any easterly and the one we'd like to see with deep cold and snow showers that will have to wait but in the meantime there is still the chance of some decent snow depending on the trough disruption.

Hi Nick

I dont think a deep easterly was ever progged from my memory on the output.What was, and continues to be progged, is a polar westerly which will bring many surprises to the north of the UK.There will be snow for many Northern districts over the coming week i feel.

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Hi Nick

I dont think a deep easterly was ever progged from my memory on the output.What was, and continues to be progged, is a polar westerly which will bring many surprises to the north of the UK.There will be snow for many Northern districts over the coming week i feel.

I wouldn't bank on a polar westerly especially with the new trend developing, the ECM I think has been trying to find a new way forward and that IMO is why we saw it become much less bullish about how long the block would hold to the east.The other models were lagging behind a bit, the UKMO was obviously asleep given its last few days outputs. Overall putting aside the UKMO which has veered from one solution to another in the space of 12hrs the outputs okay with some snow potential, but  we have to wait to see how those upstream changes get incorporated, its best to view any outputs with that in mind.

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