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Kiwi

Ukraine Unrest

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Just hearing that UA have switched on ADS (Air Defence System). Not sure if you heard but Russia has been violating UA airspace this week. The UA mil is also now on full alert, not sure what intel they have, whether it is movements or something else, or if it is just to bluff the Russians, but they have gone on to full alert. Not sure if there is anything in it yet, digging...

 

Probably worth bearing in mind that the Ukranian government will be posturing as much as Putin now, they can't be looking too weak.

 

Anyway, elections are next month so Putin has to respect those or i don't see how anybody can defend him.

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Probably worth bearing in mind that the Ukranian government will be posturing as much as Putin now, they can't be looking too weak.

 

Anyway, elections are next month so Putin has to respect those or i don't see how anybody can defend him.

 

Yep, they sure are, although I have no doubt in my mind how the elections will go.

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Yep, they sure are, although I have no doubt in my mind how the elections will go.

 

I'd expect a repeat of last time pretty much. The East and South will vote pro-Russian, the west and north will vote for Europe.

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Anti-govt protesters seize TV station in eastern Ukraine, call for own channel. 

 

 

Pro-Russian protesters have seized a local state TV station in the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, demanding that Russian TV channels be broadcast there. They also want to launch a “Donetsk People’s Republic†TV channel.

According to media reports, technical work is currently being done at the TV station to restart the transmission of Russian channels. Itar-Tass reports that some Russian TV channels have resumed work in Donetsk.

“Their experts are now setting up equipment on our frequency to broadcast Russian TV channels,†TV station CEO Oleg Dzholos told Ukraine’s Channel 5, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

 

http://www.rt.com/news/155204-ukraine-protesters-tv-station/

 

Detained “OSCE Monitors†in Eastern Ukraine Turn out to be NATO Military Intelligence.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/detained-osce-monitors-in-eastern-ukraine-turn-out-to-be-nato-military-intelligence/5379400

 

 

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yes they are..Russian political agitators are in Ukraine stirring up or even leading the aggro, its nothing new though, a lot of countries do it..including us over here in Britain.

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yes they are..Russian political agitators are in Ukraine stirring up or even leading the aggro, its nothing new though, a lot of countries do it..including us over here in Britain.

 

Yes only those with their heads in the sand can fail to recognise that the unrest is largely instigated by the Russians.
 
Systematic …….Yesterday  small numbers of well organised, armed pro-Russian separatists took control of the regional administration building in Luhansk. Today armed pro-Russians in camouflage and masks stormed the Horlivka city council building. Meanwhile the OSCE  observers are still held hostage in Slaviansk etc etc…..
 
The eastern regions seem to be slipping out of Kiev's control as per Putin’s plans. The only  way  for Ukraine to deal with this challenge and bring the eastern cities back under control is through force but Kiev has ably demonstrated that they are not strong enough to do that. 
 
The western response to Moscows interference has been pitiful …fragmented, weak and dithering. Seems to me that its game over  with Moscow given carte blanche to take over the eastern regions following the 11 May Donetsk referendum.

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The latest from me is that Russian troops on the border have moved in to a phase where they are ready to roll their wheels across the border. They have changed configuration all ready to go, with quite a lot of activityIt doesn't mean they are going in, it might be to bluff out Kiev, but it may also mean that if things get out of hand with the Right Sector et al, they may feel they have to move.

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The latest from me is that Russian troops on the border have moved in to a phase where they are ready to roll their wheels across the border. They have changed configuration all ready to go, with quite a lot of activity

It doesn't mean they are going in, it might be to bluff out Kiev, but it may also mean that if things get out of hand with the Right Sector et al, they may feel they have to move.

 

Yes seems to be a lot of activity today. 

 

 

This graphic shows a possible Russian invasion into Ukraine's east, that Dmitry Tymchuk, leader of a Ukrainian activist group "Information Resistance", published on hisFacebook page

 

post-1808-0-45584100-1398961967_thumb.jp

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nato military build up in Poland (and wherever else)..Russians military build up on Ukraine's eastern border..means. :bomb:

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nato military build up in Poland (and wherever else)..Russians military build up on Ukraine's eastern border..means. :bomb:

post-1808-0-51756700-1399060979_thumb.jp

 

Could events in Odessa and Slaviansk be the trigger?

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nato military build up in Poland (and wherever else)..Russians military build up on Ukraine's eastern border..means. :bomb:

I am not sure how this one is going to play out, the west is fueling the fire in the west and Russia in the east, the people seem a bit stuck in the middle of 2 heavy weights having a slug at eachother. Clearly there is good support for Russia from within Ukraine, its not just a few paid activists.

 

We (the west) has a bit of a schizophrenic view towards others elected governments, some its ok to overthrow and others its a terrible undemocratic thing to do.

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I am not sure how this one is going to play out, the west is fueling the fire in the west and Russia in the east, the people seem a bit stuck in the middle of 2 heavy weights having a slug at eachother. Clearly there is good support for Russia from within Ukraine, its not just a few paid activists.

 

Badly I fear.

 

Russian twitter full of calls on Putin to invade #Ukraine. After #Odessa, he has an excuse that Russian citizens were attacked

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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflict

It's not Russia that's pushed Ukraine to the brink of war
The attempt to lever Kiev into the western camp by ousting an elected leader made conflict certain. It could be a threat to us all
'The reality is that after two decades of Nato expansion, this crisis was triggered by the west's attempt to pull Ukraine decisively into its orbit … ' Illustration: Matt Kenyon

The threat of war in Ukraine is growing. As the unelected government in Kiev declares itself unable to control the rebellion in the country's east, John Kerry brands Russia a rogue state. The US and the European Union step up sanctions against the Kremlin, accusing it of destabilising Ukraine. The White House is reported to be set on a new cold war policy with the aim of turning Russia into a "pariah state".

That might be more explicable if what is going on in eastern Ukraine now were not the mirror image of what took place in Kiev a couple of months ago. Then, it was armed protesters in Maidan Square seizing government buildings and demanding a change of government and constitution. US and European leaders championed the "masked militants" and denounced the elected government for its crackdown, just as they now back the unelected government's use of force against rebels occupying police stations and town halls in cities such as Slavyansk and Donetsk.

"America is with you," Senator John McCain told demonstrators then, standing shoulder to shoulder with the leader of the far-right Svoboda party as the US ambassador haggled with the state department over who would make up the new Ukrainian government.

When the Ukrainian president was replaced by a US-selected administration, in an entirely unconstitutional takeover, politicians such as William Hague brazenly misled parliament about the legality of what had taken place: the imposition of a pro-western government on Russia's most neuralgic and politically divided neighbour.

Putin bit back, taking a leaf out of the US street-protest playbook – even though, as in Kiev, the protests that spread from Crimea to eastern Ukraine evidently have mass support. But what had been a glorious cry for freedom in Kiev became infiltration and insatiable aggression in Sevastopol and Luhansk.

After Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to join Russia, the bulk of the western media abandoned any hint of even-handed coverage. So Putin is now routinely compared to Hitler, while the role of the fascistic right on the streets and in the new Ukrainian regime has been airbrushed out of most reporting as Putinist propaganda.

So you don't hear much about the Ukrainian government's veneration of wartime Nazi collaborators and pogromists, or the arson attacks on the homes and offices of elected communist leaders, or the integration of the extreme Right Sector into the national guard, while the anti-semitism and white supremacism of the government's ultra-nationalists is assiduously played down, and false identifications of Russian special forces are relayed as fact.

The reality is that, after two decades of eastward Nato expansion, this crisis was triggered by the west's attempt to pull Ukraine decisively into its orbit and defence structure, via an explicitly anti-Moscow EU association agreement. Its rejection led to the Maidan protests and the installation of an anti-Russian administration – rejected by half the country – that went on to sign the EU and International Monetary Fund agreements regardless.

No Russian government could have acquiesced in such a threat from territory that was at the heart of both Russia and the Soviet Union. Putin's absorption of Crimea and support for the rebellion in eastern Ukraine is clearly defensive, and the red line now drawn: the east of Ukraine, at least, is not going to be swallowed up by Nato or the EU.

But the dangers are also multiplying. Ukraine has shown itself to be barely a functioning state: the former government was unable to clear Maidan, and the western-backed regime is "helpless" against the protests in the Soviet-nostalgic industrial east. For all the talk about the paramilitary "green men" (who turn out to be overwhelmingly Ukrainian), the rebellion also has strong social and democratic demands: who would argue against a referendum on autonomy and elected governors?

Meanwhile, the US and its European allies impose sanctions and dictate terms to Russia and its proteges in Kiev, encouraging the military crackdown on protesters after visits from Joe Biden and the CIA director, John Brennan. But by what right is the US involved at all, incorporating under its strategic umbrella a state that has never been a member of Nato, and whose last elected government came to power on a platform of explicit neutrality? It has none, of course – which is why the Ukraine crisis is seen in such a different light across most of the world. There may be few global takers for Putin's oligarchic conservatism and nationalism, but Russia's counterweight to US imperial expansion is welcomed, from China to Brazil.

In fact, one outcome of the crisis is likely to be a closer alliance between China and Russia, as the US continues its anti-Chinese "pivot" to Asia. And despite growing violence, the cost in lives of Russia's arms-length involvement in Ukraine has so far been minimal compared with any significant western intervention you care to think of for decades.

The risk of civil war is nevertheless growing, and with it the chances of outside powers being drawn into the conflict. Barack Obama has already sent token forces to eastern Europe and is under pressure, both from Republicans and Nato hawks such as Poland, to send many more. Both US and British troops are due to take part in Nato military exercises in Ukraine this summer.

The US and EU have already overplayed their hand in Ukraine. Neither Russia nor the western powers may want to intervene directly, and the Ukrainian prime minister's conjuring up of a third world war presumably isn't authorised by his Washington sponsors. But a century after 1914, the risk of unintended consequences should be obvious enough – as the threat of a return of big-power conflict grows. Pressure for a negotiated end to the crisis is essential.

Comment:This report from THE GUARDIAN is almost objective! That is amazing!

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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflict

Comment:This report from THE GUARDIAN is almost objective! That is amazing!

Ah yes Seumas Milne ....the Guardians most rabid left wing columnist.....sometimes described as a "Stalinist Rip Van Winkle". He lives in a different reality to most people and  having read many of his previous articles I know where to file them.

 

 post-1808-0-33842200-1399067849_thumb.jp

Edited by Kiwi
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Still can't guarantee that Russia won't move into east Ukraine but i still hold the view that Russia would not dare attack an actual EU/NATO state, even a minor one like Estonia.

 

As for the west being responsible, to be honest i don't care since i don't believe Russia is a conventional military threat to the west and with a population of 50 million Ukraine is a potential consumer market for the west. By dangling the EU carrot it may well bring its social and economic regulations in line with western norms. 

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I am not so sure that I find the above an objective impartial report of the current circumstances at all.

 

There have been problems in the Ukraine for some years now during which a pro western leader was allegedly poisoned.

 

The latest series of incidents was brought on by the prior leader of the Ukraine, albeit elected, trying to ally this country back with the Russian Federation - he flew the country and the film reports of his house indicated that it was worth well in excess of what it would be expected even on a President's salary and expenses, giving rise to a strong suspicion that he was corrupt.

 

This could well have given grounds for a possible arrest and investigation but he fled the country, effectively leaving the Ukraine leaderless. There is little doubt that those in the west were pro western in outlook, so an interim leader was needed in any event.

 

Then we have the saga of the Crimea - here Russian Military staff were already stationed here due to a lease they had with the Ukraine and it is quite likely that a majority of the inhabitants were pro Russian but not all - there were also a number of Ukrainian troops stationed there who were virtually disarmed and flung out of there barracks with a choice of either joining the Russian Forces, or leaving the Crimea altogether. A certain number of the local residents were also pro Ukraine, yet when a rushed referendum is pushed through we are given a result of some 90 odd per cent voting to go with Russia. I find this difficult to believe and it is more likely that the result was at least to some extent contrived.

 

The eastern areas of the Ukraine were always more eastward looking than west, so it comes as no surprise that Putin should express his right to intervene if the lives of ethnic Russians are placed at risk. 

 

Then we have the appearance of remarkably well armed men wearing balaclavas taking over public buildings by force in the eastern cities of the country. I have not been there so not really in a position to know but to me the appearance of these people gave the appearance, quite strongly of something having been orchestrated and they were taking their orders from Moscow.

 

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are fighting back and the current situation is showing every sign of developing into at least a civil war, if not a war between Russia and the pro western part of the Ukraine.

 

What we need in order to avoid this would be what I would call a 'face saving formula' to both sides where they would each have to be prepared to make concessions. That I would suggest would be an internationally supervised referendum to allow the people living there to determine their own future. I believe it is fairly well established that those in the east are more pro Russian, whilst those in the west are more pro western.

 

A difficulty arises for the Ukraine that now the Crimea has gone over to Russian hands, it leaves just Odessa as a major port on the Black Sea and if the Ukraine, or at least the western part of it were to prosper, they would need access to such a point but at the moment it cannot be predicted which way this region will go. 

 

I also believe that there is little doubt that Putin harboured ambitions towards getting back some influence along his western boundary and to an extent feels somewhat humiliated by the events since the collapse of the Soviet system and that part of the problems were caused by this but unfortunately things didn't quite work out as he planned - I suspect this would have been by having the former leader as a puppet but this idea went wrong.

 

If agreement on the future of the Ukraine is not reached shortly I fear that it could become a protracted messy business and if we push Russia into a corner too much it will act as a trapped animal and become dangerous. The problem is that we are dealing with people who have basically a different mind set to western thinking.

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Aside from the obvious....there are some scary images coming out of Ukraine.

post-1808-0-81211900-1399308924_thumb.jp

and  the Russians/Pro-Russians seem to be hung up on comparing almost everyone else to the Nazis !

 

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Pretty well spot on Guardian article question is now the EU and the West created the mess can they get a solution without many more deaths.

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