South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 21/01/14

[Neilsouth]

An unforcasted intense storm went through Herne Bay and Whitstable, strong squalls and vivid lightning!

[Jimmyh]

Well looking at the whole of surrey looks to have been on the receiving end of it all quite a momentous squall thunderstorm. Very impressed

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

ecm run

 

ukmo at 120

 

 

 

 

gfs ensembles

 

 

 

fi the 30th on there

 

ecm 00 ensembles

 

temps

 

 

 

wind

 

 

rain

 

 

these all all over the shop

 

ecm again at the top of the ensembles

 

gfs from the 31st lost the plot

 

basically keep to 120-144 for now

 

back later

 

john

[Gkc]

The model output thread seems to be in meltdown. What a bunch of petty nitpicking juveniles. Some of them are so mean and nasty. Over to THEweatheroutlook I think for some reasonable discussion on the models.

[tadpole]

My elderly mum just called me, the wind blew her bird feeder over could I pop down and and put it back up? She lives 80 miles away at Greatstone! I'll pop down Monday and do it and make sure she has plenty of supplies in before the snow arrives.

 

Speaking of which, netweather 10 day forecast gives me 70% of snow next Sunday 

[MPfreeUK]

Large squall thru Tunbridge wells earlier with debris over a264 as on my way home with a large tree down between ashurst hill and Langton green at stone cross. Epic gusts !!

[sarah7meme]

We got a rain shower two lightening strikes and one clap thunder. That was it?! Did it fizzle out?

[throwoff]

The chance of snow is now only 7 days away for me on 10 day. The closest it has been all winter is 9 days away!

[Canalboy]

We got a rain shower two lightening strikes and one clap thunder. That was it?! Did it fizzle out?

It shot off very quickly across the North Sea to rattle some tea cups and coffee shop windows in the Benelux.  I wouldn't fancy the North Sea ferries too much

[stun12]

The power went out briefly twice, it rained and winded (?) for about a minute and that was it. I think we were in the tail part, and it certainly looks like it was significantly more violent to the north of us. Hope that everyone's OK up there. Sometimes it's nice to have the boring weather down here near the extreme south east coast. 

[JennyJane1]

Southernman has very kindly taken the tv arial into this bedroom so i can watch tv and i just saw a weather forecast for monday with snow just just just touching the edge of the coast here mainly in the sea, so i might get a bit?

Edited January 25, 2014 by JennyJane1

[Steve C]

Just looked at the meto model, it still has the easterly at 120, how do the mad thread know that 144 is a down grade, we don't ever see the frame after that. That signal may have been there yesterday for all we know.

Hi Alexis, for whatever reason, the UKMO charts aren't posted beyond 120 hours on this site. Check the Meteociel (French site - Google Meteociel ukmo ) for the info. you want to see. Edited January 25, 2014 by Steve C

[JennyJane1]

quite chilly here now but calm again wind and rain has gone

[alexisj9]

Hi Alexis, for whatever reason, the UKMO charts aren't posted beyond 120 hours on this site. Check the Meteociel (French site - Google Meteociel ukmo ) for the info. you want to see.

I did but that only goes to 144 too, and all the talk of down grade just cause 144 showed an easterly yesterday, they don't know what yesterdays charts showed 24 hours after that, it may have always showed that low for all we know. May be some have access to the next chart other then Ian F. But I doubt it lol.

Edited January 25, 2014 by alexisj9

[HammerJack]

Evening guys...

Looks like I missed one hell of a storm then. Took my boys bowling today, whilst Mrs LeighD was busy being pampered at the hairdressers.

Went into the bowling place around 3ish, bright and calm, when we left, It was very windy, with bins and rubbish blown all over the place. As for rainfall, huge puddles formed and there was some very minor flooding on the way home.

Currently very calm, mildish and cloudy.

[Andy H]

Sorry not had a chance to look thorough all the threads so apologise if this has been confirmed! But was there any reports of a tornado in Hertford? Just been out, and trees have been snapped in half, fences ripped down?

[john pike]

if you look at ukmo 120

 

 

now at 144

 

 

low pressure blasts towards us from the north west

 

easily blasting our block away further east

 

this inbetween timeframe is fi

 

we could see the low weaken

 

undercut

 

or go north east instead

 

various options may happen

 

 

120 fax tonight may be ok still

 

back later

 

john

 

 

at least the fax only goes to 120 so do not have to worry about this until tomorrow

[HammerJack]

if you look at ukmo 120

 

 

now at 144

 

 

low pressure blasts towards us from the north west

 

easily blasting our block away further east

 

this inbetween timeframe is fi

 

we could see the low weaken

 

undercut

 

or go north east instead

 

various options may happen

 

 

120 fax tonight may be ok still

 

back later

 

john

 

 

at least the fax only goes to 120 so do not have to worry about this until tomorrow

Hi mate - I take it we are hoping the low becomes a slider, and not a blaster of the HP to our NE?

[john pike]

hi leigh it would help

 

but starting to think of just posting up to 72 on the fax charts now as anything after

 

keeps changing so much each day

[Jason T]

Sorry not had a chance to look thorough all the threads so apologise if this has been confirmed! But was there any reports of a tornado in Hertford? Just been out, and trees have been snapped in half, fences ripped down?

 

There have been reports of Tornado around the Country Andy, I think Harlow as well.So very possible you had one.

[Jax]

Evening all,

 

Was caught out in that squall this afternoon, very windy and powerful gusts, heavy rain and T&L too, but still managed to get my hair cut after work, fit in some shopping before meeting up with the family at the local spoons for a meal this evening (fed and watered now)

[Heisenberg]

 evening all, several trees down on my way to St Albans to get some papa johns...police have closed the road......

[Andy H]

There have been reports of Tornado around the Country Andy, I think Harlow as well.So very possible you had one.

Thought it was intense at the time, watching out the window, wheelie bins being picked up and ending up half way down the road, but just put it down to a strong squall! Now I have been out and seen the damage makes me think we did, never seen trees snapped off like that! The one down the road is still standing 12 ft high, the rest is a clean snap and 50 ft up the road!

[Jason T]

Thought it was intense at the time, watching out the window, wheelie bins being picked up and ending up half way down the road, but just put it down to a strong squall! Now I have been out and seen the damage makes me think we did, never seen trees snapped off like that! The one down the road is still standing 12 ft high, the rest is a clean snap and 50 ft up the road!

 

It will snap trees,Fences etc like match sticks. Problem now is anything that has not been damaged but just weakened may end up damaged due to high winds later tonight and tomorrow.

[tinybill]

The chance of snow is now only 7 days away for me on 10 day. The closest it has been all winter is 9 days away!

and  the  BBC weather are saying  the  holy  grail  of  winds  of a easterly is possible midweek  we  will see we all know what happened last  time  it  went!!