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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 21/01/14


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Hi all!

As I am a little more confident that a change to more wintry weather is on the horizon, all being well, I will be posting on here more often in the coming weeks.

I am hoping for a memorable February winter wise, especially with the possible development of an easterly. The East and Southeast usually does very well out of those. Thus keeping my fingers crossed we see this develop on the models in the coming weeks!

Edited by pandit-scholar
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tonight

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

looks like another 3-4 hours left ans some may be a tad heavy

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

no frost

 

possible misty conditions in the morning

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

Posted Image

a breezy north west flow

 

rain

 

Posted Image

it should stay dry most of the day

 

but more rain slowly moving down via the cold front on the fax from the north west

 

temps

 

Posted Image

not cold during the day

 

temps around 10 degrees but chilly in the wind

 

the colder uppers arrive when the cold front gets here

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

tempted to say a chance of some wintry showers if the precipitation gets heavy enough

 

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tomorrow night

Posted Image

a chilly north west but not strong wind

 

rain

 

Posted Image

 

before midnight rain would have cleared all

 

then dry

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

cold expect another frost and fog looks an issue again moreso north of the region

 

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sunday

 

Posted Image

 

starting off cold

 

an increasing south west wind

 

followed mid pm with a strong for a time north west wind

 

rain

 

Posted Image

rain hitting us around lunchtime or allow a couple of hours after

 

this will be heavy and persistant

 

STILL CALL THE FLOOD RISK AROUND THIS TIME

 

Temps

 

Posted Image

will warm up when the rain gets here

 

up to around 8 degrees

 

will not feel it though

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday night

 

Posted Image

 

a cold and breezy north west to west wind

 

rain

 

Posted Image

 

going against this

 

heavy rain clearing by around 8 pm

 

followed by more showery rain later

 

expect fog and mist to become an issue especially around coastal and rural areas

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

looks likely to be a raw night

 

if it clears watch for frost and ice

 

if we get some heavy showers overnight

 

we may see some sleety-hail-snowy bit type showers

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

monday

 

Posted Image

 

a gusty north west wind

 

rain

 

Posted Image

 

some heavy gusty showers around

 

maybe a rumble or 2

 

and hail and sleet in the heavier bursts

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

anywhere between 4-7 degrees

 

and could drop when heavier showers turn up

 

 

the next 2 are the more interesting ones coming up

Edited by john pike
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Oh great the triple point over the south on Sunday

 

tonight

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

looks like another 3-4 hours left ans some may be a tad heavy

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

no frost

 

possible misty conditions in the morning

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

Posted Image

a breezy north west flow

 

rain

 

Posted Image

it should stay dry most of the day

 

but more rain slowly moving down via the cold front on the fax from the north west

 

temps

 

Posted Image

not cold during the day

 

temps around 10 degrees but chilly in the wind

 

the colder uppers arrive when the cold front gets here

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

tempted to say a chance of some wintry showers if the precipitation gets heavy enough

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

Posted Image

a chilly north west but not strong wind

 

rain

 

Posted Image

 

before midnight rain would have cleared all

 

then dry

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

cold expect another frost and fog looks an issue again moreso north of the region

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

sunday

 

Posted Image

 

starting off cold

 

an increasing south west wind

 

followed mid pm with a strong for a time north west wind

 

rain

 

Posted Image

rain hitting us around lunchtime or allow a couple of hours after

 

this will be heavy and persistant

 

STILL CALL THE FLOOD RISK AROUND THIS TIME

 

.

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It's pretty yuk out there tonight, enjoy our lovely Brighthelmstone, not the best evening for promenading :-)

Thanks A. We're here about every 4/5 weeks, experiencing the full force of the seasons. Steady rain tonight but the wind seems to be from just east of south so not banging into the south and south westerly facing walls and windows of the flat here. As ever, it;s wonderful to look out on the lights of the Palace Pier about a mile and a half to the west, tonight with the sounds of the spray from the cars on the main road down below.AS
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I have posted this in the Mod Thread, Thought it may be helpful for you lovely winter waiting peeps in our regional thread. JP Will like this.

 

Well you can clearly see (Current) the The Atlantic hitting the Block in motion through this link, Its like an egg being thrown at the wall,Good Jet imagery and Isobars.

 

http://earth.nullsch...24.21,49.80,562

that isn't to great for our neck of the woodsUpgrades needed

 

Yes Bob, I think they will upgrade if all goes to plan...Fingers crossed mate. Saying that 2 cm shuts our neck of the region down lol.

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Gotta be snow on the way

How you doing yamps

Any insight into inside council info mate

Glad to see ya posting

 

Hi snowbob,

 

Croydon Council had an emergency meeting yesterday/today due to the coming storm on Sunday/Monday. All Councils have been ordered by the government to invoke their emergency preparedness procedures. Certain UK areas are struggling with flooding right now.

 

Polar Vortex is splitting big time and will be an anchor for very cold conditions to strike the UK during Feb/Mar coupled with storms.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by yamkin
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tuesday

 

Posted Image

 

a strong south westerly

 

later probably overnight turning north easterly

 

temps

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

 

cold but not cold enough for snow as uppers on the too high side

 

overnight when the flow turns this may change

 

a lot of precipitation involved here

 

 

wednesday to follow

 

drum roll and all that

 

be back soon Posted Image

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Here's some old photographs I took on Brighton Beach a couple of years back, was a great day for snow photography! The candid shot was from about 30 yards away, they never knew I was there. I always regretted not approaching them and giving them a copy, I'm sure they would have loved it :-)

Beautiful, thank you. Snow on the beach in Brighton is a rare and precious thing, we've seen it only occasionally over too many years than I care to remember. Most times it's rain by the water's edge and then just half a mile inland and up the Downs a bit, there can be lying snow.Very romantic photo of the couple. Doisneau (spelling?) Paris kiss style. The only reason they'd have not loved it was if they weren't supposed to be seen together!AS Edited by abruzzi spur
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ecm ensembles for london

 

Posted Image

 

as i thought ecm op right at the top of the ensembles there and some very cold ones in the mix Posted Image

 

wind

 

Posted Image

 

messy on there

 

rain

 

Posted Image

 

fi on the 31st

 

make of what you will after

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hi bjay

 

yeh the rain does not help

 

however fingers crossed the fax is correct

 

i have no doubt that that is the most reliable at present

 

trouble is the block is very hard for the modles to predict

 

so if you take 144 as fi you will not be disappointed by what any chart shows after

 

problem with the mod thread they are trusting anything after

 

this is going to be an ongoing saga

 

but the fax shows what i posted and will stick with that for now

 

if it changes from them thats what i will post

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I'd say judging by the fact that big differences are apparent in the 3 big models (GFS, ECM & UKMO) as early as 72 hours that FI is much closer then 144. This is based on the 12z from earlier, for example the UKMO has 2 low pressures on Monday compared to 1 on the ECM and GFS.

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hi jayces

 

happy to go with the fax to 120 at present

 

i would trust that over anything else and has run concurrent to last nights run

 

gfs ensembles

 

Posted Image

 

certainly not warm

 

now look at the temps on the ensembles from gfs

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=322&y=151&run=18&runpara=0&col=1&type=3&ext=1

 

the white line is the op run

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I'd say judging by the fact that big differences are apparent in the 3 big models (GFS, ECM & UKMO) as early as 72 hours that FI is much closer then 144. This is based on the 12z from earlier, for example the UKMO has 2 low pressures on Monday compared to 1 on the ECM and GFS.

 

GFS has been up and down for weeks. JMA has really been ahead of the big three

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