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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 21/01/14


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Gosh

 

Looking good. Whether its right or not I don't know. But it is from the Mod Thread, so that gives it errr credibility ?

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

Even to my untrained eye, looking at the UKMO which is a decent model when it comes to Eastern Blocs, we are going to get some slider lows.. rain to snow somewhere over us.

According to that, Central England could see 15 inches of snow!?

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I forgot to ask, yesterday i saw some unusual clouds and wondered what they were - I wish i had had a camera.

 

The sky was very dark at the time and the clouds on the bottom were normal white fluffy clouds but then there was a stretch of dark sky and over that there were more clouds but these were almost as if someone had drawn two straight lines in the sky and then filled the middle with cloud it was very striking in its formation.

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I have been watching the radar all morning and that band of PPN that was due to be hitting us now is being pushed more and more south.

 

The block is definately stronger than the models even at +24 gave it credit for.

 

A hell of a lot to come in before we can look at snow but once more a clear demonstration that models even at +24 are not close to 100%.

 

I would think the METO will be processing whats happening now, JP's fax will be very interesting.

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Aware this has been mentioned earlier but the rainfall forecast for today has been one of the worst close quarter misjudgements I can remember from the Met Office for a long time. They were still forecasting substantial rainfall in the South East during the day still at 8.00am! Hey ho. I'm afraid I cannot get remotely excited about 'cold' in the forecast because of the continual recent unreliability of the models. The storm track on Sunday is still variable so anything else in a weeks time (or even 5 days plus) is still at the mercy of one of the over regular 'flips' we've seen in recent weeks. Show me those charts in a 72 hours window and I'll be interested..... 

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I have been watching the radar all morning and that band of PPN that was due to be hitting us now is being pushed more and more south.

 

The block is definately stronger than the models even at +24 gave it credit for.

 

A hell of a lot to come in before we can look at snow but once more a clear demonstration that models even at +24 are not close to 100%.

 

I would think the METO will be processing whats happening now, JP's fax will be very interesting.

I think it has been very well modelled to be fair. 1:30post-15503-0-39177900-1390571009_thumb.p3:00 

post-15503-0-56730100-1390571095_thumb.p

Edited by PerfectStorm
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-25876309

 

this looks very bad - risk of flooding of the sort not seen in over a century.How much more can they stand?Major incident.

 Lawks, off to Somerset tomorrow to visit my parents; must admit when I saw that the rain headed this way wasn't making the expected progress I did wonder how things were 'back home'. Radstock where my parents live is not in the Somerset Levels, some 10 miles or so out, so hopefully it has stayed clear across the Mendips sufficiently for us to make the journey.

 

Still grey here in Uxbridge.

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"A generally dry, bright and cold morning, but thickening cloud and patchy rain will spread into western parts by midday and then slowly edge eastwards across all parts by the evening. Feeling cold as winds freshen later. "

 

Sounds like the sort of morning we've had here in Leatherhead to me! 

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Ok...I give up. Which map/chart must I look at to see this 'block'. Please, anyone. Posted Image

 

Basically the high pressure, which is dominant to our east, on pretty well all charts now and into the near future.

 

Low pressure can't generally just pile through this (without major resistance)  and the 'blocking' is the result of stopping this typical progression. :) Depressions typically either go above or below (north or south) of these 'blocks'

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This is to help the peeps who are a bit confused on a block..

 

You have cold to the east..

 

Warm to the west.. 

 

These 2 giant air masses clash over the UK to the west or to the east..

 

NOW If the block moves more east then the depressions bump up against it and you get snow.. (not all the time) some places will see rain... ITS A FINE BALANCE!

 

Now.. The low or depression can slide now it "slider low"

 

It can break it down and push warm air in..

 

Or.. It can go up against it and stall... If this happens WORLD CLASS because if the temps are right then plenty of snow will fall..

 

BUT before all that you have to establish a strong block.. then you need your low to behave and hey presto winter starts..

 

Again I stress that it's a fine balance..

 

post-12648-0-75345100-1390574365_thumb.j

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Decent description.

 

My point is that the cold seems to be tougher for the warm to push into that the models were saying.

 

No rain still here...

Rain wasn't forecast for the southeast until later tonight...http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=yrno&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=3&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0 

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I had rain forecast last night from early afternoon onwards.

due to the fact cold air is more denser than warm air.

 

Err, no!

 

That is the normal situation, this block seems to be stronger overall than expected.

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I thought the met office had a rain warning out for this area as of midnight, i was expecting to wake up to wet every where again, the south west still did by looks of it.

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Wind must have backed to a more easterly component, as planes were landing/taking off east to west now they are taking off eastward over my office.

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I think you missed my point.

 

Yes cold air is denser but thats not the reason the block is stronger than thought... that is always the case, the block being there wouldn't make the models wrong.....

 

The models know that basic information but it seems that the strength they modeled the block having is under its true strength.

Edited by throwoff
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Yep, as evidenced in the game of golf - you can hit the ball further in summer than you can in winter.

And cars run better in winter as there's more oxygen in cold dense air.

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Yep, as evidenced in the game of golf - you can hit the ball further in summer than you can in winter.

When the ball skids along the ground as most of my golf shots do it doesn't make much difference  Posted Image

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Afternoon all

 

 

very quick visit from moi as I have to get out the door in a few minutes, cold and dry day here, remained dull and overcast though.

 

Feels a little bit like the MAD thread in here this afternoon Posted Image

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