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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 21/01/14


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Of current interest and more certainty is Sundays winds and rain:

 

Shifting slightly again to give us more wind:

 

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and some reasonable gusts (50 mph):

 

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all the way into Monday lunchtime:

 

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Still some significant rain on Sunday afternoon:

 

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Beware of more flooding in areas already affected.

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Very icy here this morning, black ice on the pavements, ice on the grass, and ice on car windows. Doesn't look as pretty as a frost, but I think it shows winter is finally trying to show it's face.

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I noticed that too...its like its hitting a brick wall.

 

The interesting thing will be exactly where that brick wall is built.....

 

Posted Image

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As some have already mentioned, today is a perfect example of what happens when you underestimate a blocking pattern on the near continent.

Up until the 10:30pm forecasts last night, the METO were calling for rain in our region from 6am this morning. It is not even near our region at the moment and is just decaying out West. It may get a kick later and pass through in the early hours tomorrow, but the point is valid.

That is a huge fail by METO at less than 12 hours out. Another reason to take any forecasts and indeed the charts with a pinch of salt. Even at short timeframes!

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Sundays rain still under a warning, but slightly West of us, TBH I think it will sweep through most of the SE of the region and dump quite an amount:

 

Yellow Alert of Rain
 
Valid From: 26 Jan 2014, 06:00
Valid To: 26 Jan 2014, 23:45
Issued at - 23 Jan 2014, 11:26
Valid from - 26 Jan 2014, 06:00
Valid to - 26 Jan 2014, 23:45
 
Another spell of wet and windy weather will cross the UK from the west during Sunday. Heavy rain and strong winds are likely to affect many parts for a time with further flooding possible in prone areas such as Northern Ireland, South Wales and parts of southern England. 
 
The public should be aware of the potential for disruption. This updates the warning originally issued on Wednesday. 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

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Made the mistake of going in the MOD thread, and I'm still non the wiser as it's 50/50 by the looks of things. I'll still stand by my current round-up that real Winter is still just out of reach, but things are moving towards a better conclusion.

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Morning Robin,

 

have been waiting for your update this morning and I knew what it would be.

 

Bit twitchy though!

 

Morning Ian!

 

I'm twithcier than Samantha Stephens this morning, we need a bit more witchcraft! 

 

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Just looked at radar and I swear it looks like the rain band is moving away from us not what I was expecting. Probably saw it wrong. May be it's just decaying and looks like it's going west.

 

Edit: I mean east.

Edited by alexisj9
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My thoughts taken from the other regional.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

For the benefit of those that may not have seen it, here's my posting from the MOD thread this morning. Posted Image

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2905375

 

And Monday's situation although a fluid situation right now, I remain of the opinion that these earlier thoughts still hold true.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2903476

 

So much chopping and changing going on with such short timeframes, it is becoming a forecasting mare for those who are in the unfortunate/fortunate position of informing the public on the latest.

 

Firstly, we need to get the cold in, before jumping to conclusions about snow and especially laying snow, but this IS the best opportunity this winter unfolding before our very eyes.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Mornin each. What's all this about a block? 

 

Big heavy thing Grace, difficult to move under most circumstances...

 

.Posted Image

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If the cold block wins the battle next week, I truly believe we are on to something memorable. I've been looking at pattern matching which is apparently a bad habit, but sometimes it works because I use it in my Facebook forecasts with great results. This Winter looks surprisingly identical to 1947. 

In 1947, the Winter did start earlier in mid-January, however the synoptics leading up to the cold weather are nearly the same as what we are experiencing now. 

 

1947

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2014

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WINTER IS COMING!!! Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Morning all! Chilly here today and overcast.

Finally the roofers have been to sort out the sunroom roof. I sorta hope we get a huge dump of rain as I would rather know sooner than later if it leaks.

Block looking nicely placed.

Dentist this afternoon so I shall be going from home to Weybridge and if I see anything interesting I will take a snap for you!

Have a great day!

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Yes, blocking seems today's theme in our house too - the concrete blocks in our garden that used to hold the fence posts before it all got flattened by the storms. Hubby is valiantly trying to put up new posts, but is having trouble digging out the old concrete to put in the new 'postcrete' (which the dog ripped apart yesterday) to hold them up. Needs a stronger lass then me to help him get those things out the ground; think I may have asked the wrong question, judging by the look I got, when I asked 'couldn't the old concrete in the ground be used for the new posts'.... I got my coat, quickly.... 

 

Grey here, very grey, not much else to say really.

 

Happy POETS dayPosted Image

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please dont snow before the 2nd of feb or my flight from gatwick to france for a skiing holiday will be cancelled which is the last thing i want.

Skiing has been cancelled due to snow :o

thats a new one on me :D

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Really thinking the models have been over-powering the atlantic and not giving enough respect to this block...

 

Saying that we could all be dissapointed come Sunday but the models are seeming to trip a little about what might happen next week and the rain that was forecast only 12 hours back has been blocked off..

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Gosh

 

Looking good. Whether its right or not I don't know. But it is from the Mod Thread, so that gives it errr credibility ?

 

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Even to my untrained eye, looking at the UKMO which is a decent model when it comes to Eastern Blocs, we are going to get some slider lows.. rain to snow somewhere over us.

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