South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 21/01/14

[john pike]

hi joe

 

in the heavier burst in the afternoon

 

we may see some

 

just want to see exactly where that low goes for now

hi ab

 

would i do that ?

[Tom Jarvis]

Lol wouldn't it be typical if I don't get to go skiing in morzine because snow stops flights from taking off. Would be just typical. Be leaving on 2nd of feb

[Alixzandra]

John, you TEASE!

THATS IT! Someone needs to switch off JP's Christmas emoticon smilies in protest! ;-)

[Charltonkerry]

Like it AS, I forgot the smell of paraffin, cor that brought back memories, like you we where asked what we wanted to do, I wanted to be a furnaceman like my father, luckily that never happened. My whole young life aim was to pass the 11+ and be the first in my family to go to the grammar! as I said the other day I failed! devastated wasn't the word, tears was the order of the day, I couldn't believe it, my dad was upset and accused me of being to cocky, well I think there might been, but I was good at everything and got 99% at every test from 4 to 11, wasn't allowed 100% as I couldn't improve. You might have noticed I still haven't got over this injustice after all it was only 50 years ago, who say I don't hold a grudge.

I got sent to a hell hole of a school the downs in Dartford, rough, extremely, why me, all my thick had gone to the grammar, anyway the day arrived, I trudge of totally down hearted, got to the plat ground, immediately duffed up, by some knuckle dragging boy, who ended up a very successful dustman, bitter what me! Anyway that very first day, we where asked to line up and 60 boys names where called out, yes I was one, we where left standing in the play ground whilst the remaining animals where herded off to there classroom. We where then told that we where extremely lucky (I like all the others where snivelling wrecks, with multiple bruises and cuts) we where going to have the best teachers and education money could buy (to be fair this promise was kept too. It ended up that we where an experiment that lasted 5 brilliant years, it was called the comprehensive system, it was brilliant the teachers where first class, and after the battle of the playground on that first day, we where a common room (this was before common rooms where common :-)) we never really mixed with the other part of the school and the privileges where many, including calling teachers by their first names. Sounds great but there was a down part, as we where "intelligent and privilege" it was deemed that if we crossed the line and misbehaved our punishment was between 2 and 4 times worse than any other person in that school, believe me it was and it hurt. I was caned on many occasions for over stepping the mark, but I played cricket and had rock hard hands, so one occasion I laughed after the caning, suggest that was a wrong me. He caned me again missed the hand and brought it back under my knuckles, I didn't laugh the next time. Unfortunately the teacher involved got concussion shortly after that during the boys vs teachers rugby match.

Great times and thanks AS for getting me into trouble by going down memory lane.

Just had a thought whilst I was asleep, that dustman I mentioned above, actually earnt more than me for the majority of his life, don't know what that proves, but good luck to him.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Charltonkerry

[Jax]

whole evening of nature TV, total bliss ( still on now with the red button ) I am in heaven in terms of TV, shame it will not continue.

 

anyway, just been out to put the rubbish out, local kitten/young cat helped (bless it), not mine but pays me a visit.  Seems cold out but not frosty yet, but feel that shall change by the morning, 2.1oC out in the shed right now, no rain and clear skies (well I can see the stars if that counts).

[john pike]

one thing about the 120 fax

 

look at the high to our north - north east

 

its big and has not budged so far

 

if that low could just now grab that and pull it towards us

 

that would be nice

Edited January 23, 2014 by john pike

[abruzzi spur]

Like it AS, I forgot the smell of paraffin, cor that brought back memories, like you we where asked what we wanted to do, I wanted to be a furnaceman like my father, luckily that never happened. My whole young life aim was to pass the 11+ and be the first in my family to go to the grammar! as I said the other day I failed! devastated wasn't the word, tears was the order of the day, I couldn't believe it, my dad was upset and accused me of being to cocky, well I think there might been, but I was good at everything and got 99% at every test from 4 to 11, wasn't allowed 100% as I couldn't improve. You might have noticed I still haven't got over this injustice after all it was only 50 years ago, who say I don't hold a grudge.I got sent to a hell hole of a school the downs in Dartford, rough, extremely, why me, all my thick had gone to the grammar, anyway the day arrived, I trudge of totally down hearted, got to the plat ground, immediately duffed up, by some knuckle dragging boy, who ended up a very successful dustman, bitter what me! Anyway that very first day, we where asked to line up and 60 boys names where called out, yes I was one, we where left standing in the play ground whilst the remaining animals where herded off to there classroom. We where then told that we where extremely lucky (I like all the others where snivelling wrecks, with multiple bruises and cuts) we where going to have the best teachers and education money could buy (to be fair this promise was kept too. It ended up that we where an experiment that lasted 5 brilliant years, it was called the comprehensive system, it was brilliant the teachers where first class, and after the battle of the playground on that first day, we where a common room (this was before common rooms where common :-)) we never really mixed with the other part of the school and the privileges where many, including calling teachers by their first names. Sounds great but there was a down part, as we where "intelligent and privilege" it was deemed that if we crossed the line and misbehaved our punishment was between 2 and 4 times worse than any other person in that school, believe me it was and it hurt. I was caned on many occasions for over stepping the mark, but I played cricket and had rock hard hands, so one occasion I laughed after the caning, suggest that was a wrong me. He caned me again missed the hand and brought it back under my knuckles, I didn't laugh the next time. Unfortunately the teacher involved got concussion shortly after that during the boys vs teachers rugby match.Great times and thanks AS for getting me into trouble by going down memory lane.

CK you write so well, conjuring up the dusted hazy past, it's a privilege to read, thank you.

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

se the pub run continues from the last 2 days

[Summer of 76]

heres the fax update

 

 

monday

 

a cold north west to west flow

 

temps

 

around 5 degrees

 

however when showers arrive temps could drop a good couple of degrees

 

trough to our west could see some heavy showers late pm

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday

 

 

 

 

i want to say something here

 

but i will wait for tomorrow

 

sorry guys

Was it Merry Christmas 

[john pike]

hi chris

 

[Summer of 76]

Hi john

 

Just oiling the snow depth spreadsheet

[snowbob]

C'mon jp

Surely you know you can't leave us hanging like that mate

How rude

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

 

ecm op again right at the top of the ensembles

 

probably call fi there on the 31st

 

wind

 

 

see gfs on the 31st throws a big wind event again (outlier)

 

rain

 

 

blue run is gfs

 

need i say more

[john pike]

hi bob

 

if that second low sits where it shows on the fax

 

and can grab some colder uppers from our north east - east

 

with evaporative cooling and 528 dam air wrapped up in it

 

in the heavier bursts we should see some snow

 

now if that moves slowly enough or comes in later

 

the chance of seeing something snowy will improve

 

 

i will go deeper on this tomorrow

 

but tonight i am happy

 

and love the high to our east-north east and how big that looks

 

also bear in mind wednesday

 

as that low goes south east it could be interesting

 

 

and also thursday could see colder uppers as well

 

 

so i reckon the outlook is certainly not boring

 

 

before anyone thinks i have ignored fri night and sundays rain

 

i havent and will look more deeper on that tomorrow

[snowbob]

Cheers mate

The only thing I will say is the westward correction in the past 76 hours

Surely this has the potential to be even better tomorrow

The west trend has been very consistent

Do you not think

Atlantic my a**e

Don't think it's gonna get a look in

[john pike]

here bob

 

wheres my bun ?

 

the models hate block set ups

 

thats why i am trying to stick at 120 for now

 

lets hope this continues to the fax tomorrow night

[snowbob]

Thanks jp

You'll get your bun when you ans the question

Lol

[john pike]

hi bob

 

read 3 posts up

[snowbob]

Lol

[snowbob]

So do you think the westward correction will carry on mate

I reckon we only need a few hundred miles and bingo

Nania

[john pike]

hi mate

 

its possible but hard to call at present

 

the low might help pull the russian high back towards us

 

but i expect a lot of model swings to come

[john pike]

just posted by ian f on mod thread

 

 

Re Monday - yes, Dep Chief confirming likely easterly movement of wintry ppn into some southern-central areas with time (not expected disruptive for those districts at present), but current E4 PPN discrimination highlights Bristol-M4 corridor; parts of Devon etc at greatest risk of what could be disruptive snow/hail/ice issues (because potentially phasing with AM rush hr). I'm not allowed to copy the high-res charts; sorry... but it's an interesting signal.

 

could get busy next week

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=318&y=157&run=18&runpara=0&col=1&type=0&ext=1

 

2nd would be different

[john pike]

 

27th onwards there is scatter

 

still looking cold after

 

some nice cold ensemble runs there

 

heres my ramp for the night

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=372&code=9&mode=0&carte=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=372&code=9&mode=1&carte=0

 

the p9 run is pretty chilly

 

 

off to bed now

 

goodnight all

[Tom Jarvis]

Jp can the snow possibly be delayed until the afternoon of the 2nd of feb as my flight leaves in the morning lol

Edited January 24, 2014 by Tom Jarvis