February 2014 CET Forecasts

[March Blizzard]

MIn today of 3.2C while maxima looked like they were around the mid 9s, so an increase to 5.5C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

5.6C to the 18th (8.2)

5.7C to the 19th (6.9)

5.9C to the 20th (8.7)

5.8C to the 21st (4.9)

5.8C to the 22nd (5.6)

5.9C to the 23rd (7.4)

5.9C to the 24th (6.5)

 

 

Having a look through the CET stats for winter so far, the current range between the highest daily mean CET and the lowest daily mean CET is the lowest on record (back to 1772) at just 6.3C (9.3C high, 3.0C low), which shows how monotonous the temperatures have been this winter. The next closest year is 1859, with a range of 8.5C. So to equal 1859 we need to record a daily mean CET of either 11.5C or 0.8C (or both a new high and low) before the end of the month, both of which appear unlikely.

 

Here's how the range compares so far.

 

That's quite remarkable - goes to show that very mild temperatures have been as absent as anything cold. Consistently "cool", I'd describe it as.

To be fair last winter seemed not to dissimilar, just on an overall colder scale.

[Harve]

That's quite remarkable - goes to show that very mild temperatures have been as absent as anything cold. Consistently "cool", I'd describe it as.To be fair last winter seemed not to dissimilar, just on an overall colder scale.

If it was consistently cool then the CET would be below average. I'd say consistently mild more than anything.A 9.3c CET day doesn't seem outrageous, but it still seems very high, but most remarkable is how not a single day has been below 3c. I'm not sure how many winters record a CET day into double figures, but I doubt it's many.There have also been extremely mild temperatures, just not so much in the CET zone. Lerwick broke its December temperature record and there was a three day spell in Scotland where temperatures were constantly above 12c across the entire country, both day and night.

[TonyH]

Can't believe anyone would describe this winter as cool, when in fact it has been very mild overall, and consistently mild.

[March Blizzard]

Can't believe anyone would describe this winter as cool, when in fact it has been very mild overall, and consistently mild.

I suppose it depends on whether you are describing the temperatures in absolute or relative forms. Relatively it has been mild (in comparison to average) but I'd say that it could be argued to be "cool" in absolute terms - especially in "feel" with the amount of wind and rain.But yes, I concede that "consistently mild" is probably a more apt description than "consistently cool".

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 5.5c to the 17th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems like March 2013 CET could end up colder than the coldest winter day of 2013/2014. Bizarre.

 

If we don't record a daily mean below 3.0C, it will be a mildest lowest daily mean CET for any winter on record by a long way.

 

[Roger J Smith]

Looking at the expanded winter season (basically Oct to Apr but Nov to Mar for actual record values) ...

 

Coldest day so far this winter __ +2.5 (23 Nov 2013)

 

Record high 1772-2013 data __ +1.7 (9 Feb 1975)

 

This is from my tables listed in the signature area below. I don't have tables for just the three winter months but I assume the 1975 case is probably the current max for Dec to Feb winter seasons. The 1924-25 case below had a reading of +1.1 on 12 Jan.  All the others listed below had their coldest day in the three months Dec to Feb.

 

Other expanded winters that did not have a sub-zero CET day were

 

1922-23 (+1.2 on 20 Feb)

1924-25 (+0.9 on 13 Mar)

1821-22 (+0.7 on 16 Jan)

1789-90 (+0.6 on 20 Jan)

2003-04 (+0.5 on 30 Dec and 29 Jan)

1833-34 (+0.4 on 8 Feb)

1877-78 (+0.4 on 27 Dec)

2004-05 (+0.4 on 23 Feb)

1997-98 (+0.2 on 1 Feb)

Edited February 18, 2014 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 5.6c to the 18th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.9C now rising rapidly.

[The PIT]

Another sharp rise today for us now 5.1C and with the mild weather to continue in the weekend I suspect the rapid rise to continue.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 5.7c to the 19th

 

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum of 6.7C and maxima likely to be around the mid 11s, an increase to 5.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

5.9C to the 21st (5.4)

5.9C to the 22nd (6.3)

6.0C to the 23rd (8.8]

6.1C to the 24th (7.8]

6.1C to the 25th (5.7)

6.0C to the 26th (4.6)

6.0C to the 27th (5.5)

 

A finish somewhere from the mid 5s to low 6s looking best at the moment.

 

A finish of 5.4C would put us in the top 15 warmest winters on record

A finish of 5.6C would put us in the top 12 warmest winters on record

A finish of 6.2C would put us in the top 9 warmest winters on record

Edited February 20, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

Looks like a finish in the 4's is going to be very slim this February

 

The CET has only gone in the 4's once this month and that was the opening day when it was 4.6c to the 1st

[summer blizzard]

With a minimum of 6.7C and maxima likely to be around the mid 11s, an increase to 5.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

5.9C to the 21st (5.4)

5.9C to the 22nd (6.3)

6.0C to the 23rd (8.8]

6.1C to the 24th (7.8]

6.1C to the 25th (5.7)

6.0C to the 26th (4.6)

6.0C to the 27th (5.5)

 

A finish somewhere from the mid 5s to low 6s looking best at the moment.

 

A finish of 5.4C would put us in the top 20 warmest winters on record

A finish of 5.7C would put us in the top 15 warmest winters on record

A finish of 6.0C would put us in the top 12 warmest winters on record

 

Top 10% of winters says it all.

 

I recall you saying 5.4C was the mark for the warmest since 07, what do we need to go back further?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Top 10% of winters says it all.

 

I recall you saying 5.4C was the mark for the warmest since 07, what do we need to go back further?

 

I edited the post earlier, seems an outside chance of getting into the 10 warmest on record.

 

Well, we're not going to beat winter 2006/7, that would require February finishing on 7.4C. A Feb of 5.4C would give a winter of 5.8C, which before 2007, was beaten by 1998 which averaged 6.1C (joint 9th warmest)

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 5.9c to the 20th

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 21st

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum of 4.0C today while maxima look like reaching the mid 10s, so remaining on 5.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.0C to the 23rd (8.4)

6.1C to the 24th (8.0)

6.2C to the 25th (7.6)

6.2C to the 26th (6.1)

6.1C to the 27th (4.7)

6.1C to the 28th (4.1)

 

A likely finish of 5.8 to 6.3C before corrections, 5.4 to 6.3C after. High 5s looking best to me though.

[Summer Sun]

My guess of 5.1c is looking too low yet again this winter

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 22nd

 

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

Suspect we will see a return in the high 5's, so easily the warmest winter since 06/07 - not surprising given the complete lack of airstream from between NW-E quarter, however, not as warm as the equally atlantic dominated winter of 97/98 - which was a real shocker with very mild SW winds.

 

Interestingly both the winters mentioned above and the mildest winter on record 88/89 saw chilly Aprils with northerly snowy blast. The Marches of 89, 98 and 07 were a mixed bunch but none overly wet or cold with some decent dry mild conditions. Looking to May, 89 was a beauty, 98 brought a wonderful warm sunny dry first half and 07 from memory wasn't too bad.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Suspect we will see a return in the high 5's, so easily the warmest winter since 06/07 - not surprising given the complete lack of airstream from between NW-E quarter, however, not as warm as the equally atlantic dominated winter of 97/98 - which was a real shocker with very mild SW winds.

 

Interestingly both the winters mentioned above and the mildest winter on record 88/89 saw chilly Aprils with northerly snowy blast. The Marches of 89, 98 and 07 were a mixed bunch but none overly wet or cold with some decent dry mild conditions. Looking to May, 89 was a beauty, 98 brought a wonderful warm sunny dry first half and 07 from memory wasn't too bad.

No, April 2007 was not cold, it was quite the opposite.  Winter 2006-07 was followed by what was at the time, the warmest April on record, before it was pushed into second place by 2011. 

 

After winter 1997-98, April 1998 was different, it was rather cold with quite a potent cold spell around Easter, which that year fell on April 12th.  Such was how warm February was in that year, the CET for April 1998 was only 0.4*C warmer than the CET for Feb 1998.  April 1989 was indeed a cold month, and actually the last really cold April we had, and we haven't had one as cold since.  April 1989 was sandwiched in between a well above average March and May, and the pattern was also quite similar in 1998.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 6.1c to the 23rd

 

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.4C will be 5.5C tomorrow.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 6.2c to the 24th

 

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average