February 2014 CET Forecasts

[davehsug]

5.4c please

[godber]

4.8 please

[Relativistic]

5.8C

[feb1991blizzard]

5.6 please.

 

Unfortunately, only chance of this not coming off and it being less is a 1993 style last week which at this moment is not favourite, still an option though IMO.

[A Winter's Tale]

6.1 please

[Dunstable Snow]

An optimistic 3.1c

[Thundery wintry showers]

5.6C

[AderynCoch]

4.9

[NorthantsSnow]

7.3C.

 

And that's being optimistic.

[J10]

4.5c

 

and a day late - completely forgot about this.

[m1chaels]

5.5, working on the basis that as I am going to be wrong anyway it doesn't matter that I am late.

[stewfox]

Sorry late entry 4.8c

[BornFromTheVoid]

As December has a CET of 6.3C and January 5.7C, a February of

• 4.4C would leave winter as the joint 31st mildest on record,
• 5.0C would leave winter as the joint 20th mildest on record,
• 6.0C would leave winter as the 12th mildest on record,
• 7.0C would leave winter as the joint 6th mildest on record,

 

For the near future, with a minimum of around 2.5C last night and maximum today of 7.5C, a mean of around to 5C for the 1st seems likely.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

 

5.3C to the 2nd (5.6)

5.5C to the 3rd (5.8]

5.2C to the 4th (4.5)

5.3C to the 5th (5.8]

5.3C to the 6th (5.3)

5.0C to the 7th (2.9)

4.8C to the 8th (3.7)

[TonyH]

Oops late!

5.5c please without any research (not that that helps much!)

[Roger J Smith]

Posted a table of entries in the scoring thread, but no editing available now, so if any moderator could add the ones starting with J10 above, the number of entries so far about 74 and the median about 5.0 to 5.1.

[Great Plum]

Day late - oops... 5.4c please

[Summer Sun]

February opens up with 4.6c to the 1st

 

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

5.2C to the 2nd

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Fozfoster]

Late i know but s### again!!!! 6.0c

Edited February 3, 2014 by Fozfoster

[be cause]

A very late 5.9'C as autumn continues ....

[Summer Sun]

5.5c to the 3rd

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum today of 2.3C and maxima likely to climb into the 8s, the CET should remain at 5.5C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

5.7C to the 5th (6.6)

5.8C to the 6th (6.3)

5.5C to the 7th (3.8]

5.6C to the 8th (6.0)

5.6C to the 9th (5.8]

5.4C to the 10th (3.4)

5.1C to the 11th (2.1)

 

So, will those cool days on the 10th and 11th turn mild as all predicted cool days have this winter? Seems the rather bland homogeneous temperatures are set to continue within the reliable timeframe.

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 4th

 

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[DAVID SNOW]

 After this weekend I think the cet  will fall away to months end and end up below average(just my opinion)

[summer blizzard]

 After this weekend I think the cet  will fall away to months end and end up below average(just my opinion)

 

I'd caution you against trusting the GFS in FI.

 

In addition the mean trough could theoretically retrogress allowing a more southerly flow as below..