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Roger J Smith

February 2014 CET Forecasts

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February CET averages and extremes

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

4.6 ... mean for 2001-2013
4.4 ... mean 1981-2010
4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000

3.9 ... mean for 1659-2013 (all 355 years)
3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800

2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1785)

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Have at it with your CET forecasts.

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I wish i could go cool however on the basis of this winter to date i think i'll have to go for 5.4C, i just don't buy the stratospheric warming occurring quick enough to change the fortune of the month.

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9000c meltdown by the sun.

On a more serious note 5.8C another mild month

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3.6 please.

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I predict a very average to milder than average (5.0°C to 6.0°C) CET to be honest. I think February may bring some cold but I've got a feeling that it will be quite breif and that an Atlantic flow will mainly dominate once again.

 

 

Small prize only for guessing who would like this post as bookmakers would have had him heading the betting in the first like market at 1/20 the moment the post went up, the 1 in 20 being if he just didn't happened to be logged on at the time the post was made.

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What is your problem mate? I just have a gut feeling that February will be more mild instead of cold, that is not definitive. I could be completely wrong and it could be a very cold month, but right now, this is my prediction. You can't have a go at someone for predicting something like this, after all you shouldn't really take a forecast that is more than five days ahead too seriously, as most of the time it changes...

 

Not having a go at you mate, merely saying that it was predictable who would like your post based on past liking patterns, not having a go at him either, just stating the obvious, sorry if it came across that way.

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Actually, looking at your Winter Forecast, you seem to be pretty spot on and accurate so far.November was coldish, December was milder than average, you seem to be pretty accurate with January so far and so there is a good chance that you might actually be right about February too.

 

Thanks, I hope my feb forecast comes off, I  have to confess though its not as good as it looks, on the seasonal forecast thread I went for a CET of 3.0 for jan and I am going to be way off with that, right with the general theme maybe but way off with the actual temps, just hope my feb one comes off or at least if I am out I hope its way colder than I anticipated rather than milder.

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Mmmmm Jan probably did not work out too well but I do think it would be very unusual not to have one decent cold spell by end of Feb so with a half average month and half cold month I am going for 3.1 please.

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I'll leave my prediction until later next week, but with confidence I expect February to easily be the coldest month this winter - not difficult to achieve given how mild Dec and Jan have turned out.

 

How cold? - who knows... safe bet would be near average, but there are signals that it come it quite cold.. Its a long time since we have endured a notably very cold February, the last truly freezing Feb was back in 1986. Feb 91 was I think the last Feb to come in under 2 degrees. I think 94, 96, 01, 09, 10, 12, 13 all returned a figure below 3.5 degrees, not sure on this.. all these years saw notably cold periods cancelled out by milder conditions at times, notably 09 and 12 which saw very cold first halves, but very mild second halves..

 

Will Feb 14 be the one to come in under 2 degrees? - stranger things have happened...

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Februarys 2001 and 2009 came out at 4.4 and 4.1 respectively, so they were both near or slightly above average, and both certainly could not be described as cold by any means.  February 2012 came out at 3.8, very close to average (61-90), but both Febs 2009 and 2012 saw cold first halves and then very mild second halves.  Feb 2013 saw a CET of 3.2, which was on the cold side though lacked anything severely cold.  The coldest February of recent times was in 2010 with a CET of 2.8.

 

You have to go back to 1991 for the last time we had a really cold February, which in that year came out at 1.5.  The last time the Feb CET came out below freezing was in 1986.

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Below is the February CET in blue, with the 10 year mean in orange/red and the linear trend in black.

 

Posted Image

 

The correlation between the January and February CET is 0.35, slightly above the average of the other month to month correlations. So more often than not,mild Januaries are followed by mild Februaries and cold by cold.

January looks like finishing between 4.9 and 5.5C, so the average February value following Januaries in that range, is 4.7C.

 

The current run without a February CET of 2C or lower is the longest on record, 23 years. The joint 2nd longest is 18 years (1796 to 1813) and (1722 to 1739)

The current run with the 10 year mean above 4C is the 3rd longest on record, 18 years. The 2nd longest is 22 years (1911 to 1932) with the longest being 25 years (1867 to 1891)

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Februarys 2001 and 2009 came out at 4.4 and 4.1 respectively, so they were both near or slightly above average, and both certainly could not be described as cold by any means.  February 2012 came out at 3.8, very close to average (61-90), but both Febs 2009 and 2012 saw cold first halves and then very mild second halves.  Feb 2013 saw a CET of 3.2, which was on the cold side though lacked anything severely cold.  The coldest February of recent times was in 2010 with a CET of 2.8.

 

You have to go back to 1991 for the last time we had a really cold February, which in that year came out at 1.5.  The last time the Feb CET came out below freezing was in 1986.

 

Thanks for these statistics. Yes 2009 saw a very mild second half which had the effect of making it slightly above average after the cold first half - hadn't realised just how mild! 2001 saw episodic colder periods but nothing pronounced - so perhaps not surprised to see this ended above 4 degrees. Last February was consistently chilly without ever being particularly cold, we got very lucky last Feb I feel. Feb 2010 was very similar in feel to 2013 but with much less atlantic influence and ground temps were much colder.

 

We had to wait 23 years for a January to turn in below 2 degrees between 1987 and 2010, its 23 years since 1991, so who knows...

Edited by damianslaw
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Thanks for these statistics. Yes 2009 saw a very mild second half which had the effect of making it slightly above average after the cold first half - hadn't realised just how mild! 2001 saw episodic colder periods but nothing pronounced - so perhaps not surprised to see this ended above 4 degrees. Last February was consistently chilly without ever being particularly cold, we got very lucky last Feb I feel. Feb 2010 was very similar in feel to 2013 but with much less atlantic influence and ground temps were much colder.

 

We had to wait 23 years for a January to turn in below 2 degrees between 1987 and 2010, its 23 years since 1991, so who knows...

Yes, Feb 2013 (last year) saw temperatures remain on a very similar level with little fluctuations all month, generally on the cold side but no really cold spell ever materialised - and last Feb didn't bring much in the way of widespread snowfall either - despite last Feb having a CET of just 3.2, the only snowfall of note was around the 10th which was restricted to higher ground, and any other snowfalls were fleeting showers and only short lived events.  Despite Feb 2013 being a relatively cold month, it won't be remembered by most people as a decent winter month as it lacked any spell that was particularly cold and it wasn't particularly snowy either.

 

 

Possibly if we are lucky with the strat warming event being forecast by the GFS at around the 240-360 hr mark, and it comes off, we have hope of possibly seeing a significant cold spell manifest itself towards mid Feb, but if the strat warming doesen't come off, I can't see Feb being anything other than average to mild, with any colder intervals limited to the sort that looks likely for next week.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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