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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Yes just heard that myself Karl.. Posted Image

 

NMM Chart here to show Snow potential Sunday morning.

 

Posted Image

 

Suffice to say my last post had a broadly England bias, not so much an IMBY bias but YES I did miss out places such as Ireland and Scotland, aplogies. It is so easy to generalise when trying to represent a broader view of things. Posted Image So in summary, SNOW increasingly showing up over the next five to six days for many places including Northern England Northwards from as early as tomorrow onwards. Posted Image There are also periods of wintry mix at times, i.e. cold rain not being ruled out, so let's NOT go overboard. The more elevation you possess and if in a prone location for NW'rly or NE'rly driven winds, than it could be game on, hopefully eventually cooling down enough for settled snow.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

 

Thursday 30 Jan 2014 to Saturday 8 Feb 2014:

 

Cold on Thursday, with wintry showers in eastern and central areas easing. Then dry, but frosty overnight with patchy fog and ice. Further rain, perhaps preceded by some temporary snow, follows on Friday with a risk of coastal gales.

 

I'm not too sure about that. Here is Friday's UKMO chart

 

Posted Image

 

I presume they mean rain from the west. So that doesn't actually fit with the raw output. If it was based on the raw 00z then snow showers would still be affecting most exposed coastal areas with no sign of a breakdown certainly for Friday. And it wouldn't be dry Thursday night either in a lot of areas.

 

However the ECM is a much better fit to that outlook - in fact it is essentially the ECM outlook based on the 00z charts.

 

For example here is Thursday with wintry showers in the East, low sink away for Thursday night - then dry

 

Posted Image

 

And then Friday is a perfect match for that outlook. Rain, gales spreading from the west with temporary snow in places.

 

Posted Image

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

One saving grace in all this

That if ECM and gfs were as good as the ukmo

But the ukmo was as bad as the gfs and ECM

We prob wouldn't entertain it

I'm glad the ECM isn't showing a raging easterly because as we all know that can disappear in one run

We all remember that hiccup

Also gfs is useless

So let's not panic till the 12s

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Suffice to say my last post had a broadly England bias, not so much an IMBY bias but YES I did miss out places such as Ireland and Scotland, aplogies. It is so easy to generalise when trying to represent a broader view of things. Posted Image So in summary, SNOW increasingly showing up over the next five to six days for many places including Northern England Northwards from as early as tomorrow onwards. Posted Image There are also periods of wintry mix at times, i.e. cold rain not being ruled out, so let's go overboard. The more elevation you possess and if in a prone location for NW'rly or NE'rly driven winds, than it could be game on, hopefully eventually cooling down enough for settled snow.

Snow/sleet already today to the South of Edinburgh...

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

What's happened to all those sliders, which were showing up in the last couple of days runs?

The same thing as those -5 upper air values coming from the west. They always look widespread a week away but downgrade closer to the day so we end up with rain, sleet and hail.

 

Karyo

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The same thing as those -5 upper air values coming from the west. They always look widespread a week away but downgrade closer to the day so we end up with rain, sleet and hail.

 

Karyo

 

Uppers of -6 and -7c forecast for a time tomorrow according to EURO4 model, the new hi Res UKMO model.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

The same thing as those -5 upper air values coming from the west. They always look widespread a week away but downgrade closer to the day so we end up with rain, sleet and hail.

 

Karyo

There has been no downgrading of the prospect of -5 to -7 uppers coming from the west tomorrow night and into early Monday morning, with fairly good agreement from the models that the South-West, Southern Wales and Central Southern England will see heavy wintry showers on a strong WNW wind. IF has mentioned this several times now. Be careful about using the word "always", or some may hold you to that :p

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

The same thing as those -5 upper air values coming from the west. They always look widespread a week away but downgrade closer to the day so we end up with rain, sleet and hail.

 

Karyo

Yes and the same will apply next Saturday if the GFS is on the right track.

post-6751-0-04307500-1390654417_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

There has been no downgrading of the prospect of -5 to -7 uppers coming from the west tomorrow night and into early Monday morning, with fairly good agreement from the models that the South-West, Southern Wales and Central Southern England will see heavy wintry showers on a strong WNW wind. IF has mentioned this several times now. Be careful about using the word "always", or some may hold you to that :p

My post from 20 mins ago was more aimed at the end of next week scenarios which were being played out on Thursday and yesterday.So if the latest Meto outlook is correct were looking at a pretty wet picture, weatherwise down here, witb a bit of wintriness chucked in - whoopy do! Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

My post from 20 mins ago was more aimed at the end of next week scenarios which were being played out on Thursday and yesterday.So if the latest Meto outlook is correct were looking at a pretty wet picture, weatherwise down here, witb a bit of wintriness chucked in - whoopy do!

This is why the word 'if' is so important! The end of next week is still a while away and is FI as far as I am concerned. The next 2-3 days of weather are crucial, so small changes can still have a big impact. In particular, the low arriving tomorrow is one to watch, especially since there is still disagreement in the models.

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

There has been no downgrading of the prospect of -5 to -7 uppers coming from the west tomorrow night and into early Monday morning, with fairly good agreement from the models that the South-West, Southern Wales and Central Southern England will see heavy wintry showers on a strong WNW wind. IF has mentioned this several times now. Be careful about using the word "always", or some may hold you to that Posted Image

Not quite true Joe, the colder uppers are set to mix out much quicker now and other than on the high ground and maybe for a little while lower down most precipitation will fall as rain as per the forecast I have just seen on the BBC.

Edited by weather eater
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Not quite true Joe, the colder uppers are set to mix out much quicker now and other than on the high ground and maybe for a little while lower down most precipitation will fall as rain as per the forecast I have just seen on the BBC.

I would agree with that for tomorrow, maybe parts of Northern England will see snow to lower elevations for a while before turning back to rain. I think next week will mostly be a mix of rain/ sleet for many in England and Wales with snow mostly over higher ground and Scotland at lower elevations. Any snow in England/Wales will be of a passing nature as I expect too see those uppers modified nearer the time.
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Not quite true Joe, the colder uppers are set to mix out much quicker now and other than on the high ground and maybe for a little while lower down most precipitation will fall as rain as per the forecast I have just seen on the BBC.

It's in the balance actually, v possiblepost-16760-0-17173000-1390655581_thumb.jpost-16760-0-86593400-1390655594_thumb.jpost-16760-0-92818300-1390655606_thumb.jpost-16760-0-89605300-1390655617_thumb.j Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

It's in the balance actually, v possible

Posted Imageimage.jpgPosted Imageimage.jpgPosted Imageimage.jpgPosted Imageimage.jpg

Exactly - it is a finely balanced situation and so any statements otherwise are misguided! This is probably now becoming a situation where the computer models can no longer help us properly and in fact we must wait and see what happens tomorrow evening, allowing us to focus on the bigger developments that are developing because of that low pressure system that is sweeping in tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

There has been no downgrading of the prospect of -5 to -7 uppers coming from the west tomorrow night and into early Monday morning, with fairly good agreement from the models that the South-West, Southern Wales and Central Southern England will see heavy wintry showers on a strong WNW wind. IF has mentioned this several times now. Be careful about using the word "always", or some may hold you to that Posted Image

I am not talking about a 'tongue' of cold uppers that we are likely to get for a few hours! I am talking about the widespread cold uppers that looked likely only a few days ago. Those have gone now.

 

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

So a brief colder phase looks on the cards with perhaps some snow for parts of the uK mainly north & north east. Perhaps some sleet or wet snow for a while in other parts but lying snow pretty unlikely IMO.

ENS show colder then rising to average

Posted Image

 

Fairly unsettled but nothing spectaular. At least a change of sorts from the deluges of the last 8 weeks but no 'real' cold spell to inspire much enthusiasm.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

Still looking good, this is a thing of beauty :) 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

I am not talking about a 'tongue' of cold uppers that we are likely to get for a few hours! I am talking about the widespread cold uppers that looked likely only a few days ago. Those have gone now.

 

Karyo

Suit yourself, but coming from a long term snow starved region, I call that a success in computer modelling! The signal for unusually cold uppers from a westerly was shown some days ago now, and has been maintained to a degree ever since. You will generally only be disappointed by model output more than a couple of days away if you focus on specifics. Trends are more important and the trend is still being fulfilled.

Edited by Joe Levy
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

So a brief colder phase looks on the cards with perhaps some snow for parts of the uK mainly north & north east. Perhaps some sleet or wet snow for a while in other parts but lying snow pretty unlikely IMO.

ENS show colder then rising to average

Posted Image

 

Fairly unsettled but nothing spectaular. At least a change of sorts from the deluges of the last 8 weeks but no 'real' cold spell to inspire much enthusiasm.

 

That is for the South "London" the warmest part of the UK and  it is showing below average out till the 7th, Then were into real Fantasy World big time.. Plenty of now casting in these set-ups so don't take charts at face value.

 

A  classic Wintry week coming up, with lot's of now casting !

 

And no Charts or posters have predicted anything spectacular...

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Exactly - it is a finely balanced situation and so any statements otherwise are misguided! This is probably now becoming a situation where the computer models can no longer help us properly and in fact we must wait and see what happens tomorrow evening, allowing us to focus on the bigger developments that are developing because of that low pressure system that is sweeping in tomorrow.

As I say I’ve seen the BBC forecast which is in effect the METO and they don’t seem to be going for snow at lower levels, that will be a human call I suspect. I think the point stands, a few days ago we were being predicted cold uppers for several hours Sunday into Monday and now it’s over very quickly. Obviously in a winter like this has been, any kind of white stuff will be welcome by some, personally unless it’s going to snow and stay I can’t see the point.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Thought this would deliver more in the way of ppn to be honest - anyone explain why not?

 

post-6879-0-68271300-1390657171_thumb.pn

 

Meanwhile at altitude......... Posted Image

 

Ground conditions

Latest: 24/01/2014 15:43 FELL TOP CONDITIONS REPORT for Catstye Cam at 1230 on Friday 24 January 2014. The snowpack is thawing at all levels today but a substantial amount of snow remains above 450m. There is a patchy covering of up to several centimetres at 500m and a blanket of around 5cm at 750m with up to 20cm in drifts and hollows at this level. Above 750m there are drifts of up to 60cm on east facing aspects and fresh windslab has accumulated on east through to north facing aspects. Cornices have built above these slopes so please keep well back from the edge. Both Striding and Swirral Edge are holding large amounts of snow. The final exit ramps from both ridges onto Helvellyn are covered with steep and unavoidable sections of deep snow and these routes such only by tackled by those experience and equipped for winter conditions. Full winter clothing and footwear are essential for anyone venturing onto the fells. For those going above the snowline and onto steep or technical ground, especially on east facing slopes, an ice axe is essential and crampons are strongly recommended in case the snowpack re-freezes overnight. Temperature: Plus 0.2 deg C. Maximum wind speed 39.7 mph. Wind chill: minus 9.4 deg C. Average wind speed: S 31.7 mph.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Suit yourself, but coming from a long term snow starved region, I call that a success in computer modelling! The signal for unusually cold uppers from a westerly was shown some days ago now, and has been maintained to a degree ever since. You will generally only be disappointed by model output more than a couple of days away if you focus on specifics. Trends are more important and the trend is still being fulfilled.

Well, if we are talking about trends, the trend is for widespread cold uppers on a westerly set up to always downgrade as we approach the event. In the end we are only left with a polar tongue and that's what we are likely to get tomorrow.

 

Enjoy and make sure you don't blink!

 

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I've seen a few posts that relate the possibilities from the East v West battles portrayed in the models and relate to what happenend in 1947 and 62-63.

While I would love a repeat of thiose winters, i think it's important to remember that in both those particular winters, the East had previously made strides into the UK. it was almost like it had wandered in a couple of times to check the place over before eventually deciding "yeah...I'll take it". On those occasions the Atlantic was subject to the whim of the East.

The situation today is different....the East has got to have not just the desire to get here, but the ability to hold off the Atlantic as well. I'm not convinced that either of those apply. For me, as others have said, a East that wants to push over the UK and is capable of doing so for a sustained period, would have the pool of cold uppers reinforcing it which is not currently apparent.

I believe we may get a little excitement this coming week in terms of what happens in the UK. But for me the real progress of the week would be to see the cold uppers flooding into Europe in a way the models don't seem to be currrently portraying. However, hopefully they will start trending towards this in the coming days with the effects of the Strat taking hold and we will see a decent February

Edited by Timmytour
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