Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Blizzardof82]

UKMO T120  

 

GFS T120

 

 

ECM T120

 

All showing an easterly in 5 days time so IMO great output from the big 3 this morning

Edited January 25, 2014 by Blizzardof82

[Man With Beard]

ECM at T144 is a half-way house between GFS and UKMO ... and I don't think it will be pretty. The ridging of the Azores High and the timing of the low off Canada allow a window of less cold air in from the SW, and means Scandi High is less influential.

ECM T168 - Block nearly gone from Scandi, low pressure tracks north of Scotland! Similar to its output of 48 hours ago. Completely out of sync with its ens from yesterday. Cold westerly though would be snowy in the north / on hills. T192 parks the low in the north sea and threatens a northerly with the Azores High ridging towards Iceland. It's so different to anything else you couldn't make it up!

A massive, massive gap between UKMO and ECM. In fact by T168 it is GFS which is in the middle. GEFS indecisive but doesn't push the trough right through. Other charts (GEM, NAVGEM) follow UKMO more.

Edited January 25, 2014 by rjbw

[Frosty.]

At least it's going to turn colder with an increasing chance of snow, ice and frosts..Amen to that...for the first time this winter, it will actually feel like winter. :-)

[Radiating Dendrite]

Looking at the ECM people keep saying Scandinavian high, but by 144 it is sinking and is over eastern Europe in reality.

That Canadian PV has killed this winter so far, it is like a bad fart!

[Blizzardof82]

Lesser models GEM and Navgem looking good as well, lots of water to pass under bridge but I agree with Frostys sentiments at least it may finally feel like winter

[Captain Shortwave]

very little consistency by the ECM, even in a range where it should really be consistent. Last run it sank the Scandi high quickly, not the case this time with a stronger ridge north. But it is stil further east than the UKMO and then just refuses to take that low south east and it just sits there at day 7/8.

 

lol, that is one massive col to our north at day 9

I'm going to be honest, I think the ECM has lost the plot again.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

ECM is as inconsistent as GFS at the moment.

ECM comparison today and yesterday for day 8

 

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T216 Atlantic toppler coming up, this is so out of sync with any other run we've seen, surely an outlier. Still cold but from a totally different direction!

[winterof79]

At least it's going to turn colder with an increasing chance of snow, ice and frosts..Amen to that...for the first time this winter, it will actually feel like winter. :-)

Agreed  Frosty.The Easterly flow at 120 is firming up and it could be wintry.All the models have their own routes thereafter.

Let the cold in first i say.I dare to bet that the outcome after 120z will chop and change many times yet.The scandi high will remain strong despite the models playing with varying solutions.A good starting point this

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012500/ECH1-120.GIF?25-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012500/UW120-21.GIF?25-06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012500/gfs-0-114.png?0

[Man With Beard]

Quick look at GEFS, by T120, very little spread, 90% go for easterly and the other 10% are close.

By T168 probably 60% go for a slider with easterlies or easterly influence, 20% bring low pressure right through the middle of the UK and 20% revert to a NW trough with westerlies.

[The PIT]

GFS away from the hills mostly soggy and cold yuk until it drags in lower dew points late next week. ECM downgrade on yesterdays run and not tremendously inspiring in comparison. UKMO the pick of the bunch bringing in some nice very cold uppers. If the UKMO came off plenty of snow around while the way the other two are going it's looking like some elevation will be needed.

I would go with Pauls Hudsons comments yesterday as the most likely outcome.

Edited January 25, 2014 by The PIT

[IDO]

Pre and after second slider the ECM op is now reflecting what the GFS ens have been showing for days, a variety of outcomes. GFS mean at T180:

 

 

It shows the split with the members; flatter zonal runs, cut off low heights s.Europe and the second low sliding. Still no continuity or trend with Scandi heights, Russian block edging west, GH all in the mix.

 

Like the GEM, that again has a Greenland High: 

 

ECM a lot like some of  the GFS members with  with the AH edging back into the action (a trend on GFS) and the lower heights being cut off from the upper flow but GFS ens no where as progressive with the ECM ridge:

 

T192:  T216: 

 

You can see the problem better on the NH profile: 

 

A strong Canadian PV west, a Russian High east, there is no room for an Atlantic ridge and a SE flowing trough to co-exist in that quadrant. If ECM continues with the amping of that ridge then we simply lose the undercutting lows. Bearing in mind they had some wintry interest I really do not want to see where an Atlantic ridge will leave us (still cool). Hopefully another wrong ECM op (one GEFS member goes this way)?

 

It just goes to show the remaining uncertainty. Without access to the UKMO ens it is difficult to know where the op sits in its mean, so despite its consistency it is contrary to other models lack of, so at the moment I sit on the fence re its charts, which remain promising for the second slider.

 

The 0z GFS op is again a milder outlier in FI:

 

Though the trend after next week remains to pull the temps up. Still no change for London re snow, less than 50% for later next week.

 

So more runs needed.

 

 

 

 

[jamesthemonkeh]

ECM is as inconsistent as GFS at the moment.

ECM comparison today and yesterday for day 8

 

 

 

 

Broadly they do seem fairly consistent - except for the area over the UK.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

As inconsistent as the ECM has been again recently , if this is the worst run of the morning

Then as a trend and nothing more I would snap your arm off for it I think , northern blocking and a split vortex going forward seems to be agreed across the board in one way or another . It means nothing at this stage of course for our little island. But the JMA and the ukmo are very consistent with there modelling and by far the coldest , given the time of year you would expect Europe's temperature to be similar to what the UKMO is showing rather than anything else , but that's not to be taken for granted I suppose . But all in all a good start to the day . A good week coming up and good things to look forward to .

Edited January 25, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Duane S.]

Mixed morning so far. 

 

UKMO has really eeked the absolute best out of the short term possibilities this morning but it has to be said that following on from +144 (if that came to fruition) I wouldn't be confident of +168 being an improvement

 

ECM op doesn't want to know and keeps the Azores high in much closer proximity to our SW than some recent runs which is not what we want to see as it will stop energy being spat out of the vortex and sliding underneath the UK. However in terms of setting up a cold spell I like the D10 chart a lot. The block looks more robust than ever, the Azores high has moved away from our SW, Arctic high nosing over the pole and signs of trough disruption from a much weakened vortex could set up a very interesting period heading into the 2nd week of Feb, my favoured time for a proper cold spell.

 

The slooooow painful transition to colder continues...

[nick sussex]

Very strange goings on this morning, I'm shocked the UKMO is anywhere close to last nights output, the differences start so early in terms of the modelling of the high to the ne that this is getting into the realms of one of those firsts for here.

 

The UKMO at T72hrs is already different from both the ECM and GFS to the ne, although the GFS if you compare its 00hrs and 18hrs run has made a move towards the UKMO with the high being edged a bit further north and west.

 

The ECM is primarily designed as a post day 3 model, the UKMO more short/medium term so this leaves us with one of those situations where one model is going to be wrong at T72hrs!

 

The ECM overall today is a complete mess in its FI, earlier though it lives up to my concerns last night with no no slider because of phasing issues, after that it goes off into the sunset, I do wonder whether theres another background signal in play here and it might be trying to adjust to that.

 

I don't see any modification of the UKMO raw output at T72 and T84hrs in terms of the fax charts, that seems to be  a carbon copy of the raw output. We don't get the T84hrs UKMO raw  but it looks like a natural transition from the T72hrs .

Edited January 25, 2014 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

What a bloody mess! I doubt the folks at Bracknell will be pleased to their flagship operational behaving like gfs! Perhaps tis gives us an insight into 'Shannon entropy' . what makes this so weird is that the ECM ens spreads have not reflected these shenanigans. is this going to be another moment for ukmo which despite looking completely isolated yesterday evening, is at least consistent with its evolution. it has drawn some support this morning from navgem and to a degree, the gem.

Never has the statement 'T120 is as far as its worth looking' been seemed so relevant. even if the ECM ens continue to look rock solid, you have to question their current reliability, given the behaviour of the op and the ECM ens temps for Berlin and Warsaw.

maybe it's just a weekend wobble from the ops but the day 6 differences between the euro ops have rarely looked so stark from our perspective.

A day of waiting for the 12z's and maybe time to take more notice of gfs in the day 5/8 period? Any port in a storm!

Exeter, clearly had sight of all these scenarios which led to their cautious approach yesterday. this frustrating winter continues for those seeking decent snowfall. (Just one would be nice!)

And nick, having read your post, I agree with all those sentiments. I think dave recalled the run last jan when ukmo went out on a limb and was right. maybe yesterday's 12z was another of those moments.

Your point about ECM fishing around re a background signal is interesting although with the Canadian vortex, split polar vortices and 'scrussian' ridge, there can't be that many surprises out there.

Edited January 25, 2014 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

This is the 7th consecutive ukmo run to show a very wintry spell developing next week...you know what..I think it could be on to something here

 

It's going to turn colder, probably much colder as we go through the first half of next week, the cold could become entrenched with our best chance of snow and ice since last march / april, remember there is no eastward bias from the ukmo...I think all coldies will enjoy next week....a lot 

[jamesthemonkeh]

From watching the models, I detect a high pressure pattern shift from the Azores to Scandi during the first half of February.

 

In the meantime, it reminds me of this time last year, give or take a week. Undercutting lows, bringing snow events to many,

[russell k]

Pre and after second slider the ECM op is now reflecting what the GFS ens have been showing for days, a variety of outcomes. GFS mean at T180:

 

gens-21-1-180 (3).png

 

It shows the split with the members; flatter zonal runs, cut off low heights s.Europe and the second low sliding. Still no continuity or trend with Scandi heights, Russian block edging west, GH all in the mix.

 

Like the GEM, that again has a Greenland High: gem-0-240 (10).png

 

ECM a lot like some of  the GFS members with  with the AH edging back into the action (a trend on GFS) and the lower heights being cut off from the upper flow but GFS ens no where as progressive with the ECM ridge:

 

T192: ECM1-192 (6).gif  T216: ECM1-216 (5).gif

 

You can see the problem better on the NH profile: ECH1-216 (4).gif

 

A strong Canadian PV west, a Russian High east, there is no room for an Atlantic ridge and a SE flowing trough to co-exist in that quadrant. If ECM continues with the amping of that ridge then we simply lose the undercutting lows. Bearing in mind they had some wintry interest I really do not want to see where an Atlantic ridge will leave us (still cool). Hopefully another wrong ECM op (one GEFS member goes this way)?

 

It just goes to show the remaining uncertainty. Without access to the UKMO ens it is difficult to know where the op sits in its mean, so despite its consistency it is contrary to other models lack of, so at the moment I sit on the fence re its charts, which remain promising for the second slider.

 

The 0z GFS op is again a milder outlier in FI: graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (.gif

 

Though the trend after next week remains to pull the temps up. Still no change for London re snow, less than 50% for later next week.

 

So more runs needed.

Hi the 2m temps are always an outliner in FI ,,, no idea why

[cooling climate]

Extremely surprised to see the UKMO 100% consistent with its output from

yesterday evening. The ECM and its ens have this winter been less than

helpful and it looks like the problems with that model regarding its

inconsistent output continue.

Still unsure of the outcome but hard to imagine the UKMO model being

wrong at such an early timeframe.

[shedhead]

Nothing much more to be said about GFS/ECM, but if I had to sum their overnight offerings up in one word it would be 'disppointing'

 

At the other end of the spectrum however we have UKMO, which if anything is an upgrade for cold later next week despite already being the best on offer for the last 36-48hrs.  Ordinarily I'd be relatively confident of UKMO at least verifying close to what'd being shown, but as well as the fact the other big 2 are not onboard my main concern is the MO do not seem to be fully buying into what their own model is showing.

 

More runs needed as per, but events overnight suggest this is still far from the done deal touted by some yesterday.... it is however going to turn colder, that we can take as read.

Edited January 25, 2014 by shedhead

[nick sussex]

I would give the ECM ensembles a wide berth today until the models agree on the earlier timeframe, depending on how many start off with the ECM operational run high position at T72hrs, because that makes so much difference then if the ensembles have got that wrong then this will just get compounded as those continue forward.

[bluearmy]

I would give the ECM ensembles a wide berth today until the models agree on the earlier timeframe, depending on how many start off with the ECM operational run high position at T72hrs, because that makes so much difference then if the ensembles have got that wrong then this will just get compounded as those continue forward.

Whilst I agree with that approach this side of the Atlantic, I would still be interested to see what they want to do upstream.

[EML Network]

I should imagine Shannon Entropy is a Maximum levels this morning judging by the mess being shown by the models. 

 

The GFS ensembles have been creeping up over the past few days and as I was gunned down for saying yesterday the ensembles clearly want to see a quick return to mobile westerly driven weather. 

 

This is being shown by the GFS for next weekend and is exactly what the Met Office outlook suggests.

 

I'M NOT SAYING THIS WILL COME TO PASS THIS WAY

 

And I'm not taking any one run as gospel and I'm not saying that any one model is better than another 

 

I'm simply using the data available and saying what it is showing. !!.

 

GFS for Next Sunday ...

 

 

No matter what anyone else tells me, the further away you get from the - 5 line, the more you need other factors to play ball for anything falling from the sky to be snow. 

 

 

 

What has got me excited for probably the 1st time this Winter, is the JMA. 

 

This is very similar to what gave a large swath of the UK a good old dumping of snow last winter....

 

 

Uppers...

 

 

However, posting charts at + 192 at this moment in time, is a bit of a pointless exercise. 

 

I'm just proving that I am not all doom and gloom as I have been accused of, I'm not trying to second guess what ''I THINK'' is going to happen, I am showing what the charts are saying and doing my best to interpret that. 

 

The ECM wants the same Low pressure as shown above to drop South, WELL East of the UK, and if anything that run would keep us in with a shout of seeing further cold and snow potential.

 

So to sum up the models are all over the place on the face of it, but they do all show a broadly similar set up, tomorrow's Low takes a long time to sink south, we do develop a form of Easterly, but it's not a long fetch Easterly, with the exception of the UKMO, which shows by FAR the coldest chart of the Winter so far at + 144

 

 

 

 

 

It really is pointless trying to second guess what comes next, the GFS wants a return to mobile mostly westerly driven weather, the ECM wants to sit on the fence and If I were to look at the 192 charts available and pick a favorite it would be the JMA outcome. 

 

Overall I am feeling more positive than at any other time this Winter, that a cold spell is coming, as for snow, I still feel it's too marginal. 

 

The UKMO and JMA are both looking good , but as always were chasing charts and until they get within + 96 and showing something similar it's silly to get excited.