Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Bolton67]

-5 uppers into the north east of england at 126

 

at 138 the cold uppers are starting to be pushed east hmmmmmmmmm

 

I've looked at this about 3 times now, if anything the colder uppers are making more inroads into the east??

 

the T+126 shows -8 uppers into the North East of England, South East Scotland.

 

the T+ 138 charts shows -8 uppers from Humberside down to Kent.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I've looked at this about 3 times now, if anything the colder uppers are making more inroads into the east?? the T+126 shows -8 uppers into the North East of England, South East Scotland. the T+ 138 charts shows -8 uppers from Humberside down to Kent.

Pleased you have also spotted that, I just thought I had misread those 850 charts.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well you can clearly see (Current) the The Atlantic hitting the Block in motion through this link, Its like an egg being thrown at the wall,Good Jet imagery and Isobars.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-24.21,49.80,562

 

Indeed Jason, that is a fantastic resource. I urge people to use it as if you click on the map and drag the cursor you can move the map to where you want and focus on your part of the world. Click on the EARTH icon and you can follow winds, temps, mslp etc. all at differing levels within the atmosphere. Once done, if you click back on your browser, my image revealed itself to cover the whole of my VDU screen and then you can simply leave it running in the background should you wish. Mods, please let this post stay as that is some TOOL for understanding the atmospherics above our little island in relation to the rest of the world. Kudos to Cameron Beccario whose website it is.   Perhaps this post could also be placed within a learners area within the forum.

Edited January 24, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[goosey007]

GFS 18z showing strong snow signal next friday midlands northward

[cooling climate]

Not a hint on the 18z tonight of it trending towards the UKMO run at t96 onwards

and despite what some say about the 06z and 18z being poor runs there is always

an element of truth about them especially in the earlier stages.I would therefore

now say I would be extremely surprised to see the ECM move towards the UKMO in

the morning in fact I would expect to see the the reverse.

I would not worry about counting snow totals on the ECM run either. A totally

pointless exercise at the time frames we are talking about and given what I am

seeing from the 18z the south of the country at least may be having to wait a

while longer yet to see any worthwhile snow.

[Ice Day]

GFS is different but really variations on a theme.  At 192 and the Atlantic hitting a brick wall and not making any inroads with a chunk of PV heading out of Canada. Brilliant day of model viewing.  What's the next twist???

 

[karlos1983]

Wow, quite a read the past 10 pages, some fantastic posts, and some showing some clear anxiety about the events for next week.

Personally I'm sticking with the ukmo on this one, why? Because IMO the ukmo has modelled the last week or so better than any of the other models (ECM,GFS). I've lost a lot of faith in the ECM op this winter, seems at times even the the GFS has outdone it, perhaps because of the zonal slaughter we have endured(must stress I'm talking 00z & 12z). When we have had the sniff of an easterly, the ECM has failed!

Very impressed with the solid runs from ukmo since this potential cold spell was picked up, in terms of bringing the cold in.

Just my opinion, a great 40 min read due to all the great posts, I very much doubt there is a better forum weather wise when the weather is interesting, especially cold, down to all you lot who are as nuts as I am about the weather!

[Jason M]

The differences between GFS and METO are very early in the piece at say day 3. This is where GFS sets up the Euro high over Russia at which point its effectively game over as there is no cold pool to work with. METO has heights much further north.

METO is a much stronger model than GFS at early timescales but given how early on the two diverge I'm concerned on this occasion as the extra six hours data gives GFS a huge advantage in this instance.

We can have slider lows, easterly winds etc. but it doesn't matter if its not cold enough!!

Ordinary mid winter fare from GFS tonight. I still think it will be another couple of weeks if its coming, but that's only my view.

[draztik]

My own personal view is that many will be left disappointed, esp in the south. ECM, given the 850s and associated secondary low heading se by t168, has the potential to deliver transient snow to the south; but it all appears temporary, as is often the case when relying on cold from the NW! The block, according to ext ecm will have less influence on the UK by days 10-15! However, it appears temps will remain below average throughout this period, so naturally we could see wet snow at times, but it would appear rainfall totals are the major concern at this juncture.

days 10-15, heights, ecm ext

[cold snap]

I wish those ppn charts would just be deleted,utter waste of time,every other bit of weather kit is however worthwhile .

Gfs 18z shows that a done deal is not done regarding bitterly cold air .

Still think that the atlantic has some sort of foothold in the overall pattern ,can see why the experts are holding back

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

My own personal view is that many will be left disappointed, esp in the south. ECM, given the 850s and associated secondary low heading se by t168, has the potential to deliver transient snow to the south; but it all appears temporary, as is often the case when relying on cold from the NW! The block, according to ext ecm will have less influence on the UK by days 10-15! However, it appears temps will remain below average throughout this period, so naturally we could see wet snow at times, but it would appear rainfall totals are the major concern at this juncture.

days 10-15, heights, ecm ext

HUGE ammount of northern blocking on that chart.

The million dollar question is can we get the limpet rough far enough south...

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a hint on the 18z tonight of it trending towards the UKMO run at t96 onwardsand despite what some say about the 06z and 18z being poor runs there is alwaysan element of truth about them especially in the earlier stages.I would thereforenow say I would be extremely surprised to see the ECM move towards the UKMO inthe morning in fact I would expect to see the the reverse.I would not worry about counting snow totals on the ECM run either. A totallypointless exercise at the time frames we are talking about and given what I amseeing from the 18z the south of the country at least may be having to wait awhile longer yet to see any worthwhile snow.

I think waiting until tomorrow morning would be best before making any judgements, speaking from someone who got badly burnt from an out of kilter UKMO run which turned out to be right.

It really is down to that Siberian section of the vortex really, only a small margin will result in cold unstable air sticking around the siberian region or going underneath the high to our north east and supporting the block which gives the robust high seen on the UKMO. It's probably not much in the early ranges but it sure makes a difference by day 5 onwards.

@Draztik, i've accepted the soggy inevitable for a few days now, this literally is mass flooding or snowfest. 

Edited January 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[gottolovethisweather]

For those folk looking too far ahead, I would like to point out some uncertainties within the next 72 to 84 hour timeframe. The following UKMO Fax Charts which as most will know, are given added human input yet they completely differ when you look at the features over the UK. Furthermore they are both looking at the same timescale - MONDAY, the only difference being that they are from differing UKMO runs.

 

 

The surface features for Monday are far from nailed as indicated above and to my eyes, there are signs that the all important 528DAM line could be showing down by the South Coast even by then.  Ask yourself, WHERE IS FI NOW?

 

As JH would say, forget about chasing snowflakes at t+168 or whatever because once some surface cold air gets in the mix, possibilities may pop up at short notice. The coldest week of the Winter is coming up and we should expect plenty of wobbles in the model suites over the weekend and I ain't just talking the about pub runs.  Snow is coming, just where, when and at what timeframe remains the unanswered question. Baby steps and a heck of a lot for the authorities to ponder over during the coming days with heavy rain, Thunder, hail, sleet and snow all available to most of us.

Edited January 24, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

HUGE ammount of northern blocking on that chart.The million dollar question is can we get the limpet rough far enough south...

I'm impressed by that 11/15 dayer but I suspect that's because I realise we dont live in Scandinavia! nice to see th chart posted to illustrate my earlier post.

[J10]

18Hz not particularly encouraging into medium term, but better for snow/wintry showers showers chances into Monday, with lower 850HPA (sub -5c for longer) and thickness levels now closer to 520dam.

 

Also there remains a change for snow Friday, as front passes through, but details on that event will change.

[tight isobar]

Ep18z gfs should only come into cross mosel consensus, with its evolution its shouting mistake after mistake read into what you willl.panic needs withold, evolution by dawn I think will raise a roger Moore EYEBROW.

[karlos1983]

London

 

[shaky]

If its on any consolation the 18z jma up to 84 hours is absolutely identical to its 12z run!!

[Purga]

I thought we would have had a bit more to go on from the media side about next week by now, with the very cold looking charts, from the ecm mean & the ukmo's last 6 model runs which have all been very wintry looking..this might turn a little cooler next week is really a bit feeble I think..

Realistic maybe?

[Jason M]

JMA 18Z is better than GFS at 84 hours. Sort of a half way house between GFS and Meto (maybe 60 / 40 in favour of meto).

Note the position of the heights to our east / north east on the two runs.

JMA -- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=84&mode=1

GFS -- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=84&mode=0

Given that the key changes occur earlier than this at day 3 I think we will have resolution on this saga in the morning as one or other side has to blink soon :-)

GEFS will be interesting in next 30 mins

[Gibby]

Tonight's Fax Charts are out and they aren't that bad, especially Wednesday's with cold air flooding West over Europe and Low pressure close to the South with the 528 dam line suitably placed for some wet snow possibilities in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.html

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.html

Edited January 24, 2014 by Gibby

[Jason M]

GEFS out to 102. I can't see much support for the METO evolution on this suite so the opp is well supported by its ensembles and control run.

[bluearmy]

Given the Berlin and Warsaw ECM ens graphs, I am surprised the day 5 fax is left unmodified. There is no sign of a deeply cold easterly on them.

[karlos1983]

Given the Berlin and Warsaw ECM ens graphs, I am surprised the day 5 fax is left unmodified. There is no sign of a deeply cold easterly on them.

Yes,they don't paint a pretty picture actually

 

[Ice Day]

Given the Berlin and Warsaw ECM ens graphs, I am surprised the day 5 fax is left unmodified. There is no sign of a deeply cold easterly on them.

 

Yes, not a good end of the day.  I fear a day of downgrades tomorrow (I'm trying to tempt fate!)