Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Blizzardof82]

In the hunt for cold and even all the talk of rain, no ones really mentioned how windy this upcoming period is going to be.

[Bolton67]

No, but it definitely takes an Aerospace Engineer  

I can't stop looking at this chart from the JMA, heavy snow for the Midlands. 

fingers crossed... what I would give for another Feb 09 event..

[Man With Beard]

So end of day, where are we? T0-T48, plenty of rain and wind. T72-T120, a wintry mix, potentially quite snowy up north, a small possibility of nationwide snow later in the period. T144 and beyond, a much more pronounced split. Most wintry charts are full blown winter beasts (ukmo/jma). Least wintry charts are more like a battleground with substantial snow on the NE edge of any fronts (ecm).

I think there have been worse days watching the models

but let's hope the rain isn't too serious in the short term

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean really cranks up the wintry potential by the middle of next week onwards or sooner, these charts suggest snow fest to me with cold air becoming entrenched across the uk with between -5 / -10 T850 hPa, the charts look very wintry, certainly compared to winter so far they are chalk and cheese, it looks cold and snowy with lows sliding southeast and undercutting the block, sucking cold continental air into the uk and mixing with low pressure...add this to the ukmo 12z wintry dream charts and you would think coldies have a lot to smile about next week and possibly beyond.

Indeed frosty taking the mean at face value there is fantastic support there for a very snowy set up , yes it's risky as these situations always are but with cold embedded air , we have low pressure across the uk on 3 successive days , with low pressure steaming southeast across uk , if that turns to be correct with embedded cold air next wkend Into the following week really could be epic indeed . I realise there's a long way to go but what an exciting outlook we have ! Edited January 24, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Les Penniston]

Evening all

 

If the models do play game and we end up with a nice snowy cold spell can we discuss  it and enjoy and not look for a breakdown straight away after all this model watching and waiting over this winter.

 

cheers 

Les

[The Eagle]

18z GFS looking very consistent so far. No remarkable changes to 96 hrs.

Edited January 24, 2014 by The Eagle

[shaky]

18z GFS looking very consistent so far.

as long as it doesn't look like the hideous ecm lol!!!

[Biggin]

Ta for all your posts as always see ya tomorrow bout 5

[Nick L]

as long as it doesn't look like the hideous ecm lol!!!

 

The ECM was far from hideous. Less good than what the UKMO was offering, but not hideous at all.

[bluearmy]

some nuances on the extended ecm ens as follows.  days 11-13 see another vortex trough extension towards nw europe but this one, with a less invasive azores ridge comes more directly west to east and then plants itself to our west and slips energy se across the uk. unusual to have such low thicknesses approaching off the atlantic adnd if we have cold embedded by that stage we really will see some disruptive snowfall somewhere across the uk. the recent runs have seemed to want to relax the lower anomolys to our south but this run is happy to maintain them, fed by a sinking jet which no longer has to traverse the azores ridge. a trend for higher heights in se europe/eastern med.  could be quite a cold period setting up with no real sign that the canadian vortex is going to dwindle too much and that mean more atlantic systems headed into nw europe.  i guess sliders approaching west to east into a broad uk trough is what ian was mentioning earlier.  it certainly looks like remaining fascinating for the next couple of weeks at least and by then, i expect the russian high could begin its march west.

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z GFS looking very consistent so far. No remarkable changes to 96 hrs.

 

Maybe a tad better than the 12z as the 18z develops a little low to the SE of the high to stop any push S/E

[Frosty.]

as long as it doesn't look like the hideous ecm lol!!!

The Ecm 12z op run looked pretty cold and wintry to me, hideous for those who prefer mild for sure. 

[norfolksnow]

Living on the east coast as i do in norfolk, cold from the east never really delivers in the way of snow(i know it seems daft) but here  allways the best falls come from the west as cold meets mild?

,

[phil nw.]

ECM mean outputs pretty consistent in bringing those colder uppers in through next week-following yesterdays outputs.

 

yesterday   today

 

 

Something to monitor in the next few days are the developments for next Thurs/Fri when another low is modeled to approach just when the -5C uppers are across the bulk of the UK.Snow quite possible as the system comes up against the cold.

Probably more likely rain and too much of it until then for most of us away from the high levels further north.

Certainly a fascinating battle developing between east and west weather wise and whatever the result the most interesting period of model watching this Winter so far i reckon.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Living on the east coast as i do in norfolk, cold from the east never really delivers in the way of snow(i know it seems daft) but here  allways the best falls come from the west as cold meets mild?,

That's my concern, way too early to tell but we need to hope that the north sea doesn't moderate the cold uppers too much. Places further inland shouldn't have the same issue as folk near the coast though. Edited January 24, 2014 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Cheshire Freeze]

Clearly a better run by 120hrs. The HP is stronger, Greenland troughing backed further west. Hold on to your hats folks, let's see what transpires here...

[damianslaw]

some nuances on the extended ecm ens as follows.  days 11-13 see another vortex trough extension towards nw europe but this one, with a less invasive azores ridge comes more directly west to east and then plants itself to our west and slips energy se across the uk. unusual to have such low thicknesses approaching off the atlantic adnd if we have cold embedded by that stage we really will see some disruptive snowfall somewhere across the uk. the recent runs have seemed to want to relax the lower anomolys to our south but this run is happy to maintain them, fed by a sinking jet which no longer has to traverse the azores ridge. a trend for higher heights in se europe/eastern med.  could be quite a cold period setting up with no real sign that the canadian vortex is going to dwindle too much and that mean more atlantic systems headed into nw europe.  i guess sliders approaching west to east into a broad uk trough is what ian was mentioning earlier.  it certainly looks like remaining fascinating for the next couple of weeks at least and by then, i expect the russian high could begin its march west.

 

 

A good post, supporting the prospect of a sustained 'cold zonal' outlook. I too expect the Russian high to be an omnipresent feature through the latter part of the winter and will become the key driver rather than the Canadian vortex - the strat forecasts support such a feature being very strong.

[Barry Reynolds]

I think im correct(someone will if im wrong) but the midlands has seen some great snowfalls from sliders in the past...

Im with you karl,its concerning me.

TBH SO many times in the past we have sat here crowing over the cold synoptics at 144h and the meto have refused to ramp,9 times out of 10 when t0 arrives im wearing wellies and carrying an umbrella..

Im Praying for a change tomorrow

I agree. The charts look stellar, but until the Met Office are confident enough to shout about it, I'm taking it all with a huge pinch of salt.

[Boro Snow]

-5 uppers into the north east of england at 126

 

at 138 the cold uppers are starting to be pushed east hmmmmmmmmm

 

Edited January 24, 2014 by Boro Snow

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Clearly a better run by 120hrs. The HP is stronger, Greenland troughing backed further west. Hold on to your hats folks, let's see what transpires here...

not so sure about that cc

[Rocheydub]

And micro analysis of each 6 hour motion continues… Lads, please let the run go through to 144 or more before looking at micro scale changes!!! 

[Jason T]

Well you can clearly see (Current) the The Atlantic hitting the Block in motion through this link, Its like an egg being thrown at the wall,Good Jet imagery and Isobars.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-24.21,49.80,562

[chionomaniac]

not so sure about that cc

perhaps at that point there is very little interrun difference....

[terrier]

Like Ian has said tonight the met are saying they is a very good chance that either the ECM gfs solution could win out or the ukmo jam model could win out many more runs over weekend needed. Think we won't be any wiser until perhaps the 12z on Monday or even Tuesday think anything past t72 is fi at moment

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Not liking this run at all.

Az high much less favourabley placed.