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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

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A solid set of ECM short-medium range ensembles.

 

 

 

The UK showing below average 850 temperature anomalies from about 120 hrs onwards

and it ain't dry either.

 

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PS to paul1978 around the tweets- you never know who has integrity & who hasnt....

steve im certain the ecm has had an injection of meths to get from nothing in the alantic to a day after tomorrow lol it just seems very unrealistic.

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GFS snowfall accumulation, and probably one of the least snowiest models today I would imagine! wonder what JMA would of showed in this regard?

 

Posted Image

Edited by Gaz1985
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GFS snowfall accumulation, and probably one of the least snowiest models today I would imagine! wonder what JMA would of showed in this regard?

 

Posted Image

I think the triangle of doom jokes might return after this post Posted Image

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I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to work out that next week will become at least a little colder since it will be a mild day in the south tomorrow, around 11 or 12c 53f but less mild further north. BBC News 24 weather still saying it might turn a little cooler next week but we are keeping an eye on this...nothing like ramping up a cold snap is therePosted Image

Edited by Frosty.
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Please keep on topic - posts about twitter account holders will be deleted.

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The models are easily showing the most wintry fayre of the season so far. All are in agreement of trough disruption with the jet forcing trough action on a NW-SE tilt, something we haven't seen so far this winter. So a very different feel to things in the coming days - certainly very wintry and not spring like and under any precipitation and strong winds it will feel very cold and raw.

 

UKMO is different to GFS/ECM in showing the trough dropping further south deeper into Europe allowing cold easterly/northeasterly airflow by Wednesday which if it verified as shown would no doubt introduce a pronounced cold spell thereafter with energy off the vortex forced far to the NW. However, it looks a bit of an outlier and I suspect heights will remain just a bit too far east at least for now allowing further trough attacks from the NW on a very similar trajectory.

 

As we head into February, ECM and GFS are suggesting more of the same, but if anything a colder outlook with heights over scandi showing signs of building northwestwards towards Iceland - with the Jetstream digging far to the south some proper sustained cold could occur.

 

The trend over the last 72 hrs has been for a much colder outlook to take hold, no doubt because the cold block is now forecast to go nowhere fast - never underestimate the power of blocking to our NE at this time of year - notoriously difficult to break down and if anything tend to become stronger beasts through February killing off atlantic attacks.

 

The battlelines are being drawn across the country between the mild atlantic and cold continent, the models in the last 24 hrs have tipped the balance of power towards the continental block winning out, whether this remains the case tomorrow who knows, but the longer term background signals do support the case..

excellent post lets get this out of fi and then its game on.

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I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to work out that next week will become at least a little colder since it will be a mild day in the south tomorrow, around 11 or 12c 53f but less mild further north. BBC News 24 weather still saying it might turn a little cooler next week but we are keep an eye on this...nothing like ramping up a cold snap is therePosted Image

No, but it definitely takes an Aerospace Engineer Posted Image 

I can't stop looking at this chart from the JMA, heavy snow for the Midlands. 

Posted Image

Edited by PerfectStorm
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And once again the ecm mean is an absolute pearler!!undercutting lows and an average of -4 to -5 850s!!all the way to the end aswell and the pv dissected in half!!

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No, but it definitely takes an Aerospace Engineer Posted Image 

I can't stop looking at this chart from the JMA, heavy snow for the Midlands. 

Posted Image

IMHO The Midlands could be the jackpot winners later next week.Esp parts with altitude  like Buxton for example.

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IMHO The Midlands could be the jackpot winners later next week.Esp parts with altitude  like Buxton for example.

I would have thought Scotland based on JMA? Or am I reading this wrong please correct my mistake if so.

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I thought we would have had a bit more to go on from the media side about next week by now, with the very cold looking charts, from the ecm mean & the ukmo's last 6 model runs which have all been very wintry looking..this might turn a little cooler next week is really a bit feeble I think..

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I would have thought Scotland based on JMA? Or am I reading this wrong please correct my mistake if so.

I think im correct(someone will if im wrong) but the midlands has seen some great snowfalls from sliders in the past...

I thought we would have had a bit more to go on from the media side about next week by now, with the very cold looking charts, from the ecm mean & the ukmo's last 6 model runs which have all been very wintry looking..this might turn a little cooler next week is really a bit feeble I think..

Im with you karl,its concerning me.

TBH SO many times in the past we have sat here crowing over the cold synoptics at 144h and the meto have refused to ramp,9 times out of 10 when t0 arrives im wearing wellies and carrying an umbrella..

Im Praying for a change tomorrow Posted Image

Edited by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
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I think im correct(someone will if im wrong) but the midlands has seen some great snowfalls from sliders in the past...Im with you karl,its concerning me.TBH SO many times in the past we have sat here crowing over the cold synoptics at 144h and the meto have refused to ramp,9 times out of 10 when t0 arrives im wearing wellies.Im Praying for a change tomorrow :)

Yes, we get some of the best snowfalls from these setups.
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Exactly.I could set myself up as Bristleweather on twitter and post complete baloney on the weather.Trouble is there are too many people who believe absolutely everything they see on the net.

But thats the point steve is trying to make, these tweets dont go into much detail because of the limit of 160 characters, statements are made but no evidence to back it up

  

PS to paul1978 around the tweets- you never know who has integrity & who hasnt....

Cheers Gents, don't shoot me down :-( it was an innocent post. Remember that Paul Hudson is the up north version of Ian Fergusson, not just a random person, so I think it would be worthwhile taking note of his observation (albeit within 140 characters). But on the subject of models (at last!) on the whole you've got to say we've had some stonking runs in the last 48 hours, it's a pleasure to see! And I'm a coldie as much as the next guy. Keep up the good work guys, I'll go back to lurking ;-)
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