Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[UV-RAY]

Later some okay synoptics from the ECM but because of its earlier trend any deep cold has long since gone ne. Overall a disappointing ECM operational run, it might have looked good compared to whats been dished up so far this winter but compared to some of the other models its like budget fish fingers compared to Dover Sole.

 

I'd advise people to wait till tomorrow before getting at all excited about snow prospects, the ECM is just a couple of more phasing issues away from no slider at T168hrs.

 

We can just hope that its at one extreme the UKMO and JMA at the other and at worse we get a blended solution which would be okay.

Wise words Nick, but do drug addicts wait around for their next fix. I think a wintry spell for some looks pretty nailed, now where that some will be could range from the bulk of the UK to the far NE of the country. What intrigues me is how we are seeing each attack from the West sliding further and further under the block, is it only a matter of time before we see a fully fledged easterly?

[fergieweather]

Basically looks like ecm has lost the plot tonight!!

?@ ! Since when is any prescriptive forecast beyond T+96 based solely on the DET? Let's await the ENS/EPS before getting knee-jerk over stuff a whole week away. :-)

[The PIT]

Latest Met Office guidance suggests 30% chance of cold, snowy weather arriving next week. Milder, Atlantic conditions favoured.@EssexWeatherSo as the ens suggest there is much uncertainty.

So 70% for mild off to the bookies right now.

Wondering why the TV presenters are saying cold next week if that's the case. Updated info since then??? Too be honest they've been saying cold then mild then cold over the last five days or so on TV.

Edited January 24, 2014 by The PIT

[pandit-scholar]

The ECM is not as good as the 0z run, however there are plenty of positives from tonight's model runs. Three major models, the JMA, GEM and UKMO have consistently, for the past few days, pointed to a cold spell for the UK next week. The ECM could have been better, however it does show ridging of high pressure to the NW, towards Iceland , towards the end of its run. Although it doesn't show deep cold, at least it shows cold more akin to a UK winter, something we have hardly seen so far this winter.

Regarding the GFS, I don't take it seriously at the moment, and so do many, including even US based forecasters.

Patience, in my opinion, should be required over the next few weeks. We are not going to get snowmaggedon overnight, and this is probably a slowly progressing situation regarding any memorable cold spell, if it eventually arrives.

[DEYS(Kent)]

?@ ! Since when is any prescriptive forecast beyond T+96 based solely on the DET? Let's await the ENS/EPS before getting knee-jerk over stuff a whole week away. :-)

Your colleague in Essex seems to think the Met favour the mild solution?

[Panayiotis]

I am rather Blaise with respect to the ECM ens, since it's update they tend to hunt in a pack, skewing the mean like last night's 12z. The main conclusion from recent GEFS is that there is great uncertainty with regard to the track of that second potential slider and tonite they are no nearer nailing it. Yet 24 hours ago the ECM mean gave us an unbelievable D10 repeated sliding synoptic, and here we are today?Not saying its wrong now, just with that mean I am surprised that it has backtracked so quickly, and by so much. It is now very similar to a main GEFS cluster.Recent update from the met via tweet:Latest Met Office guidance suggests 30% chance of cold, snowy weather arriving next week. Milder, Atlantic conditions favoured.@EssexWeatherSo as the ens suggest there is much uncertainty.

So does @EssexWeather have inside info from the Met? Didnt Ian say that the Met have some confidence in colder weather for next week? 

Edited January 24, 2014 by Panayiotis

[IDO]

Your colleague in Essex seems to think the Met favour the mild solution?

"Milder" big difference. It won't be mild.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Dont know what to think now.

Never straight forward is it.

The meto update today had me worried-the ECM just compounds that worry.

At this time though our thoughts have to be with those poor folk who have seen flooding and look to be staring down the barrel of more wind and rain.

[Argyle1980]

If this were to verify then this would also co-inside with a monster of a high tide on that weekend.... So could be a big problem for us down here in the sw .

#onetowatch.

[IDO]

So does @EssexWeather have inside info from the Met? Didnt Ian say that the Met have some confidence in colder weather for next week?

Maybe it's like the tweet says, 30% confidence in cold/snow!

[Jason M]

Looking at the differences between the big 3 at 72 hours there is a marked difference in the way in which the high pressure over Russia is being modelled. On ECM and GFS this results in a poor orientation of the block and therefore a drift from south of east which equals a poor upper temp profile.

Personally I think anyone backing ECM or GFS opps against METO at less than 72 hours out is very brave indeed.

I actually think the end of next week is a red herring and the real deal will arrive mid feb. Chino and Tamara have been pushing that line and the slow development of the pattern seems to be supporting that view.

[Blizzardof82]

Recent update from the met via tweet:Latest Met Office guidance suggests 30% chance of cold, snowy weather arriving next week. Milder, Atlantic conditions favoured.@EssexWeatherSo as the ens suggest there is much uncertainty.

 

I don't see anything that mild coming from the Atlantic in any of tonights output, am I missing something or is @EssexWeather tweeting his normal knee jerk tweets tonight?

 

His previous tweet to that was 'UKMO at 144 is stunning, snow showers arriving on a NNE'ly. Awaiting mighty ECM'

Edited January 24, 2014 by Blizzardof82

[Jayces]

A difficult decision tonight for the UKMO because both their own model and the ECM are rarely wrong at T96hrs, the GFS is a different matter, if that had shown the ECM output to be honest I wouldn't have cared much.

 

Even if you factor in ensembles, at that range the higher resolution of the operational run should be weighed much more heavily.

 

 

?@ ! Since when is any prescriptive forecast beyond T+96 based solely on the DET? Let's await the ENS/EPS before getting knee-jerk over stuff a whole week away. :-)

 

These 2 posts sum things up nicely.

 

I'm no expert on weather forecasting but I can open up 3 tabs on Meteociel and compare GFS, UKMO and ECM charts of just pressure and temperatures side by side and see big differences for our little island starting between Monday and Tuesday.

 

And therein lies the problem with getting too excited on here and shows that really forecasting is still very hard beyond 3 days especially when there is a divergence in the big 3 at only 72 hours away.

 

I often see posts of where FI starts and to be honest IMHO it's the point where models start to lose agreement with each other so in this case T72 ish so Monday for the uninitiated.

 

It's nice to see the potential (yeah I know that's a swear word here) but at the moment the only thing we are certain of is that we are in for a wet and windy weekend and then there it looks like getting colder as next week progresses but no idea how cold or if there will be snow and if so where.

 

Hopefully lots everywhere but only time will tell.

[london-snow]

To me all these comments seem to only relate to one thing only....

IMBY!!!

Let's await the postage stamps and where the ecm sits with regards to it's ensembles before calling Dr Sussex prozac hotline I'd suggest.

All in all i think it's been a great day thus far with the output ( If it's cold you are after ) that goes for the ecm also considering what a fruitless winter coldies have endured thus far.

[Paul White.]

Messed up the links maybe redo later

Edited January 24, 2014 by Paul White.

[Paul_1978]

Paul Hudson (BBC LookNorth meteorologist for Yorkshire) has tweeted:

@Hudsonweather: Next week looks colder than average, low pressure in charge too. Expect a messy mix of rain, sleet & even some snow at times, mainly hills.

Which seems to suggest as is "mostly hills", many of us on lower ground will miss out?Conflicting signals tonight! :-(

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Paul Hudson (BBC LookNorth meteorologist for Yorkshire) has tweeted:Which seems to suggest as is "mostly hills", many of us on lower ground will miss out?Conflicting signals tonight! :-(

All i can say is he and others seem to be discounting the UKMO det.Typical,when we want the UKMO to be wrong its usually right,when we want it to be right.....

[Captain Shortwave]

Rather underwhelming ECM op, but like the ukmo it's rather progressive in the synoptic evolution, a pattern similar to the previous few ECM ens I think is favoured with low pressure pushing south east into europe with the UK on the eastern flank of the lows as they pass by. ECM is sinking the block to the north east too quickly and the UKMO is probably overdoing the strength of the high, though it's position is probably not too far off the mark, just weaker and allowing the Atlantic a little bit closer.

But the 12z ens might prove me wrong there.

[terrier]

Very confusing output tonight. It does sound to me with all these tweets been posted that we are looking at a very messy picture next week. The ukmo was great tonight. But then the ECM throws a spanner in the works and looks very similar to the gfs output at t96 which is a big worry if it cold and snowy picture were after. I'll await the ensembles around 20.30hrs with interest.

[MPG]

Absolute panic in this thread over a few tweets regarding FI model output. Get a grip. This will not be sorted until Sunday, so come back then for the 12z.

[cooling climate]

The main difference as I see it between the UKMO and the GFS, ECM is where the

core of the hights are at t96. The UKMO has them just to the east of Svalbard

thus with higher pressure to the north the low at t96 tracks further south.

The ECM and GFS transfer the core of the heights southeastward towards Moscow

thus with weaker heights to the north the low also tracks further north.

The UKMO sucks the high up from scandinavia now the three charts below show

the ECM at t48,72 and 96 you can see that from t48 to 72 it starts to suck the

high up and then between t72 and 96 it changes its mind and the high takes up

residence further south and east as the GFS model does.

Again big,big differences at such a short time frame,which one is right or will

we see a half way house which would not be that bad.

[Man With Beard]

I have mixed feelings on the UKMO T144 tonight. 

On the one hand, it looks amazing for cold with the Russian cold pool lined up towards us - as I suggested this morning, a 1991 rerun is not impossible from there (for those who are too young to remember, daytime maxes of -5C and many many inches of snow) - but what would the Azores High do next? Potentially it could simply fuel the High by injecting warmth up the western flank, but if the jet off Greenland/Canada is too strong then it might put pressure on the Azores High to sink the Scnadi too far south for any snow potential.

 

Still, just one run from one model, nothing will be settled at T144 until the exact exit of the low at T96/T120 is decided.

[SMU]

I think we should BAN tweet copy & pastes into the MOD thread....

 

Otherwise we are overloading the forum with conflicting opinion.

 

Scores on the doors:

 

JMA 10/10

UKMO 9/10

GEM 8/10

ECM 7/10

 

the rest- non starters, the NAVGEM pulled up Lame.

 

S

[Catacol]

It's on a knife edge, but I wouldn't personally being going down Ladbrokes* to place any bets against the UKMO at T96.

 

 

 

Yes - totally agree. I remain on the fence until I see a strat profile that supports more blocking, whether it be Scandy or Greeny, but the battle lines that are being drawn for at least 24 - 48 hours are truly knife edge situations. It would be foolish to discount anything at this stage.

 

Certainly is very exciting watching and analysing. Netflix have got nothing as good as this...

[Man With Beard]

Just to see how different a DET chart is at H500 here is the ecm from 5 days ago 12z ECM1-120 19 jan 2014 12z.gif

 

And today's 12z different?

 

ECM1-72 24 jan 12z.GIF

 

To my eye quite stark but I am long sighted. I guess what I'm trying to say is lets not worry yet about the ECM op run It may be different next week.

 

Here the UKMO

 

 UW6-21 ukmo 24 jan 2014.gif

 

And last weeks. Have fun

 

UW120-21 uk mo 19 jan.gif

It does depend on what run you pick though. I've checked all the models from 6 days ago for today, and both ECM and GFS were closer than UKMO, JMA was a mile off! Though I feel the UKMO has been a lot more consistent at T144 since blocking got in place a couple of weeks ago.