Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Downpour]

CFS v2 going for a warm Greenland in February — to me that signals cold for the UKhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

Indeed. Shame it is from a cannon fodder model!

[Heisenberg]

_{wow 577 users online....something must be brewing.}

 

_{I did mention yesterday that the block looked quite strong and the Altantic might not barrow through.....looking at the radar that seems correct. will it hold and move further inland and where will the battle ground ensue....thats the question.}

[Roy]

Darren Bett on news 24 was very understated and just said "a little bit colder next week". As if to dampen anyone's over enthusiasm of it getting much colder. So met office don't seem to be concurring with the models at the moment

[SomeLikeItHot]

So just looking at the london ensembles. Night of the 31 Jan- 1st of Feb we have approx 50mm of precipitation at temp of near zero. Obviously such things aren't reliable at that range. However am I wrong in thinking that the model really suggesting 50cm of snow for London?

.
 

[supernova]

Frosty will no doubt lead the meltdown on here when he sees the full 06z GFS run, predicting snow every day in many parts from Thursday 30th Jan to the following Monday, Feb 3rd.

Who knows what is coming really but we now appear to have good agreement from all models that next week may bring us our first real taste of winter so far.

 

More worryingly, a significant amount of precipitation for those areas already affected by flooding appears likely, however it falls, and whilst true precipitation totals to the end of the month are impossible to predict the trend doesn't inspire confidence.

Let's hope the impact is not as serious as it might be. Also, much credit due to the Environment Agency in my opinion, might be my imagination but I perceive them to have been significantly more visible over recent weeks with outstanding awareness, advice and real action from what appears to be a very dedicated team. I know when I was eating mince pies and opening Christmas presents most of them were working to stop people from flooding and they haven't appeared to have had much respite since, with more toil forthcoming. Credit where credit's due if I'm right and my thoughts go to anyone who's home is at risk from further impending rain - we had our own issues in Lincolnshire in 2007 and it's not nice.

 

 

[karlos1983]

GEFS 06z looks good

 

 

Even better

 

Edited January 24, 2014 by karlos1983

[CLH the red dragon]

As others have stated the block is stronger than the models are suggesting, today in Bristol being a perfect example. I was expecting to wake to moderate continuous rain however it's just light drizzle intermittent  and looking at radar its all gone south in to France.

 

Today's weather seems to fit within the warning quite well but not within the forecast or, neccesarily, the models. Even here in Cardiff it's hardly possible to call it anything other than light rain. My river level has barely moved.

[drgl]

According to the forecast I saw this morning It should be hammering down with rain now, it's dry as a bone. I'll believe it will snow when the first flake of winter hits my face!!!

[SMU]

So just looking at the london ensembles. Night of the 31 Jan- 1st of Feb we have approx 50mm of precipitation at temp of near zero. Obviously such things aren't reliable at that range. However am I wrong in thinking that the model really suggesting 50cm of snow for London?

.

 

 

 

this is what happens when sliders get it right

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zS-9Hh3Lu0

[london-snow]

Darren Bett on news 24 was very understated and just said "a little bit colder next week". As if to dampen anyone's over enthusiasm of it getting much colder. So met office don't seem to be concurring with the models at the moment

Darren Bett is a mild ramper point one.Secondly it is far too early to be making statements saying that a cold spell is on its way with snow and ice likely to the general public as panic will set in when the pattern is not set in stone. Still much more runs needed to be sure by no means a certain. Edited January 24, 2014 by london-snow

[EML Network]

the ECM paints a very dull picture this morning with the cold air flooding out of Eastern Europe in the later stages.

 

This mornings GFS run paints a broadly similar picture, it's clear to me that the Atlantic is going to win this round and I think the battle too.

 

I'll get shot down for saying this, but for me we're in injury time, 2 - 0  down witrh 5 minutes of added time to be played.

 

next week looks cool, but I think a North West feed is pants for the vast majority, dew points unlikely to be condusive of snowfall for most except those in elevators.

 

I don't mean to come across as pessamistic, just realistic.

 

But just to balance things out .....

 

 

 

[KyleHenry]

Well If you take the fact the GFS is poor in blocked scenarios, the fact it has a eastward bias , The fact that it models 850's to high to the east, the fact its the 06z then your left with probably the most eastward solution.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012406/gfsnh-0-180.png?6

 

pretty good there.

 

 

Who wants a virtual sportsmans bet that the slider doesn't get east past Ireland......

 

Steve I'm in the best position to take that virtual bet. I could even give a live commentary of the slider going through over my head at 144 hrs and in turn you could let us now how the -8 uppers are, as they nose into the East coast

[Catacol]

GEM is the perfect evolution this morning, easterly with displaced azores high, atlantic truly stopped in its tracks and blocking eventually setting up over greenland, had to be bar none the charts of the winter thus far

 

The GEM evolution was the one that was on the cards a few days ago, but is the solution that has been binned by most of the models. It would indeed bring some proper winter to our shores.

 

However I cant see it happening. 100hpa chart this morning out to 10 days once again - vortex beginning to reform with its centre still down over Greenland:

 

 

and then the 30hpa chart for the same day in early Feb showing a vortex shape under stress but anchored over the atlantic and in a position to continue to support a pattern that will fire more lows over the uk

 

 

Decent levels of vorticity too still forecast over the atlantic at the same time:

 

 

 

There really isnt any way to soften the blow of this prognosis. To get height rises under these circumstances over Greenland is going to be very tough. Chio suggested that the scandy high might hang on and that our cold may come from the east when he was musing a few days ago, but if these strat charts are accurate (and bear in mind they tend to verify much better in broad patterns than the detailed trop charts do...) then we are looking towards the end of February for anything dramatic to build - and by day 10 wave 1 warming is fading.

 

The only crumb of comfort at the moment is that we appear to have a signal for a renewed wave 2 warming through the first week of February. Once again we can say that this might deliver... the vortex is certainly weakened and is no longer the beast that it was 3 weeks ago - but the ever growing possibility is that any impact of such an attack may not be felt until we hit March...

[The Post-modern Winter]

the ECM paints a very dull picture this morning with the cold air flooding out of Eastern Europe in the later stages.

 

This mornings GFS run paints a broadly similar picture, it's clear to me that the Atlantic is going to win this round and I think the battle too.

 

I'll get shot down for saying this, but for me we're in injury time, 2 - 0  down witrh 5 minutes of added time to be played.

 

next week looks cool, but I think a North West feed is pants for the vast majority, dew points unlikely to be condusive of snowfall for most except those in elevators.

 

I don't mean to come across as pessamistic, just realistic.

 

But just to balance things out .....

 

 

 

Without many posts (95%) supporting my interpretation of the models I would otherwise assume I was very wrong when reading your post. Could you possibly spare the time to produce a slightly more detailed post (obviously not Murr detailed) to explain your interpretation. It would really help with my learning process. Thanks EML

[Catacol]

Morning ,

Subtle upgrades again this morning

The ECM and GEM are an utter snow fest with snow distribution spread around fairly even like a slice of toast-

Look at the kink over the north sea on the ECM at 96 and 120 that could force the cold in quicker.

Come 168 All models want to bring a period of sliding snow across the UK .....

Exciting times, debilt ens very cold expectations today with day 10 heights building over the pole once again......

 

I love the optimism but cant agree. The GEM evolution is great - but the chances of the GEM op which is out on its own this morning verifying must be slim. The ECM is cold rain for the south. The uppers are not low enough, and the feed is not from the deep cold that is out east. It is a near and yet so far scenario. The 240 chart here shows what is almost a belt of high pressure building in exactly the right place, but it is not a pattern that is supported in the forecast for the strat at this point. I suspect 268 would show low pressure systems once again approaching us too far north to drag in the coldest air required.

 

[drgl]

& in March 2013 I was digging my car out of snow Some comments on here are silly at times, game over etc etc. It isn't game over until April has been & gone.

[R.P. McMurphy]

the ECM paints a very dull picture this morning with the cold air flooding out of Eastern Europe in the later stages.

 

This mornings GFS run paints a broadly similar picture, it's clear to me that the Atlantic is going to win this round and I think the battle too.

 

I'll get shot down for saying this, but for me we're in injury time, 2 - 0  down witrh 5 minutes of added time to be played.

 

next week looks cool, but I think a North West feed is pants for the vast majority, dew points unlikely to be condusive of snowfall for most except those in elevators.

 

I don't mean to come across as pessamistic, just realistic.

 

But just to balance things out .....

 

 

 

 

 

 

This mornings GFS run paints a broadly similar picture, it's clear to me that the Atlantic is going to win this round and I think the battle too.

 

What kind of statement is that to make then post the above images?

 

The GFS is fantastic for cold and snow towards the end of the month and into February.

 

 

Also regarding the ECM:

 

 

the ECM paints a very dull picture this morning

 

 

 

 

The whole country is under -5C 850's - and you come out with that statement.

 

I can't help but feel you are rather on a massive Wum, or simply don't know how to read the charts properly.

 

Even Shedhead's coming on board and that's saying something.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Glenn W

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The GEM evolution was the one that was on the cards a few days ago, but is the solution that has been binned by most of the models. It would indeed bring some proper winter to our shores.

 

However I cant see it happening. 100hpa chart this morning out to 10 days once again - vortex beginning to reform with its centre still down over Greenland:

 

 

and then the 30hpa chart for the same day in early Feb showing a vortex shape under stress but anchored over the atlantic and in a position to continue to support a pattern that will fire more lows over the uk

 

 

Decent levels of vorticity too still forecast over the atlantic at the same time:

 

 

 

There really isnt any way to soften the blow of this prognosis. To get height rises under these circumstances over Greenland is going to be very tough. Chio suggested that the scandy high might hang on and that our cold may come from the east when he was musing a few days ago, but if these strat charts are accurate (and bear in mind they tend to verify much better in broad patterns than the detailed trop charts do...) then we are looking towards the end of February for anything dramatic to build - and by day 10 wave 1 warming is fading.

 

The only crumb of comfort at the moment is that we appear to have a signal for a renewed wave 2 warming through the first week of February. Once again we can say that this might deliver... the vortex is certainly weakened and is no longer the beast that it was 3 weeks ago - but the ever growing possibility is that any impact of such an attack may not be felt until we hit March...

A day 10 strat chart is still very volatile and open to change for one , and even with a raging Atlantic you can have a scandi high , this 2 weeks we have had one with bitter cold air 200 miles east , with cold air already in place , a scandi high can be very influential even in the most zonal of winters , once the low pressure heads southeast , you find the rest up north follow suite . Nothing to be downbeat in the models this morning .

[Purga]

this is what happens when sliders get it right

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zS-9Hh3Lu0

Great Steve - even better would be!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LB0IsvJlXVk

[The Post-modern Winter]

What kind of statement is that to make then post the above images?

 

The GFS is fantastic for cold and snow towards the end of the month and into February.

 

 

Also regarding the ECM:

 

 

 

 

 

The whole country is under -5C 850's - and you come out with that statement.

 

I can't help but feel you are rather on a massive Wum, or simply don't know how to read the charts properly.

 

Even Shedhead's coming on board and that's saying something.

My reply was much more reserved than yours but we're essentially saying the same thing. Trolling or a poor level of knowledge considering the number of posts

[shedhead]

Let's try to remember there is room for all views in here and certainly no need for name calling....agree re it being something that I'm coming on board, but I still have one foot on the harbour wall for now too..

[Catacol]

& in March 2013 I was digging my car out of snow Some comments on here are silly at times, game over etc etc. It isn't game over until April has been & gone.

 

Be clear about the comments - winter ends on 1st March so that is the call that is being made. "Silly?" No.. because the call is supported by evidence that suggests we are not quite going to reach the pot at the end of the rainbow because background stratospheric factors are not quite supportive (yet).

 

Yes - it can snow in March. But March is Spring and March 13 was exceptional. Many coldies of course, including me, will take it if it is the best we can eek out. April is no good for the south for a proper cold spell. 

 

There is still a window of opportunity through early to mid Feb... but for me it is a sign of just how poor this winter has been that folk are so excited by the charts this morning. They are better than at any point this winter so far - but they are not indicating a period of sustained cold.

[SMU]

I love the optimism but cant agree. The GEM evolution is great - but the chances of the GEM op which is out on its own this morning verifying must be slim. The ECM is cold rain for the south. The uppers are not low enough, and the feed is not from the deep cold that is out east. It is a near and yet so far scenario. The 240 chart here shows what is almost a belt of high pressure building in exactly the right place, but it is not a pattern that is supported in the forecast for the strat at this point. I suspect 268 would show low pressure systems once again approaching us too far north to drag in the coldest air required.

 

 

Hi Catacol-

 

I think your wrong, especially when using a 240 chart to support the snow that comes at 168/192 & 216.- seems odd you choose a non representative chart to support your theory

 

However using the stratosphere via the ECM as a forecasting tool for the troposphere at day 8/9/10 & then micro managing that to the UK is less than pointless.

 

Even at the far out reaches of the ECM at 168 /192 /216 on the ECM let say they were to verify

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012400/ECU1-168.GIF?24-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012400/ECU1-192.GIF?24-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012400/ECU1-216.GIF?24-12

 

The uppers covering the 72 hours are at their HEIGHT around 192 when the -1c isotherm gets into the extreme south, so for there possibility of back to rain, but away from there its all snow im afraid.

 

As semi proof of this- go to the operational run temps above ^^ note the -6c temp on the operational at the end- its reacting to snow cover for the T2M ... it wouldnt do this if it was indicating no snow.

 

 

S

PS at 240 the ECM is mouth water as its indicating a retrograde high to Svalbard & more deep cold coming SW into Europe....

Edited January 24, 2014 by Steve Murr

[tight isobar]

the ECM paints a very dull picture this morning with the cold air flooding out of Eastern Europe in the later stages.

 

This mornings GFS run paints a broadly similar picture, it's clear to me that the Atlantic is going to win this round and I think the battle too.

 

I'll get shot down for saying this, but for me we're in injury time, 2 - 0  down witrh 5 minutes of added time to be played.

 

next week looks cool, but I think a North West feed is pants for the vast majority, dew points unlikely to be condusive of snowfall for most except those in elevators.

 

I don't mean to come across as pessamistic, just realistic.

 

But just to balance things out .....

 

 

 

the precip, chart you posted, hached pink shows widespread poss) disruptive preety much country wide snowfall. If it was to come off I dont think 2-0 down with 5 mins injury time left its 5-0 up in the cup final with 60 mins left to further embarrassed the opponents!

[Catacol]

A day 10 strat chart is still very volatile and open to change for one , and even with a raging Atlantic you can have a scandi high , this 2 weeks we have had one with bitter cold air 200 miles east , with cold air already in place , a scandi high can be very influential even in the most zonal of winters , once the low pressure heads southeast , you find the rest up north follow suite . Nothing to be downbeat in the models this morning .

 

Yes - you do often have a strong scandy high in the latter stages of winter and it can quite happily coexist with a raging atlantic. But I have been watching the weather long enough now to know that when the atlantic is as strong as it continues to be at present then the retrogression of that high is blocked. Snow in Norway, rain in the UK. The finely balanced scenario which brings stalling fronts over the UK running up into embedded or advancing cold (Feb 96) is not looking possible yet under the current setup.

 

Enough posts from me today - I have probably annoyed 95% of the readers on here with gloomy analysis... but in the end I can only call it as I see it. I had felt that late Jan and into Feb would deliver for the UK this year but for me the vortex has shown itself to be too strong. I guess in 5 weeks time we can dissect the winter properly and I will very happily eat humble pie with a covering of Dartmoor snow if I am seeing the next 2 weeks incorrectly.