Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[phil nw.]

A bit of humour is fine but don't forget this is Model Discussion folks so let's keep your content mainly on that.

 

Thanks all.

[supernova]

Very disappointing output this morning given the exceptionally mild nature of this winter so far and a much changed MetO outlook for the foreseeable...

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Jan 2014 to Thursday 6 Feb 2014:

Wintry in the north to start with, followed by the south, where it will feel cold in strong easterly winds with the need for heating systems everywhere to require use of the ON switch and potential use of woollen clothing in more exposed areas. Several layers may be necessary during colder interludes and there is also the possibility of hats, gloves and scarves being aired later in the period. Ice scrapers may be visible at times, particularly in the mornings, and snow shovels, days off work and widespread hooping, cheering and spontaneous applause is possible. A return to more typical Westerly regime expected later in the period but current indications suggest this may be blocked for some time to come and may in fact be postponed by sliding lows, northern heights and potential blizzards.

 

Also noticed this new addition to the Botched English Dictionary

 

rampede

Pronunciation: /rampˈiËd 

NOUN

 

a sudden panicked rush to view exciting weather model synoptics:

 

e.g.

• the Japanese weather forecasting model was predicting widespread snowy conditions in a wild rampede

• a rampede of weather fanatics, meteorological model watchers or forum users 

*Thought to have been first used by a popular Netweather forum contributor Steve Murr in response to an untypical JMAzing model output in January 2014. Murr is also credited with other definitions including BOOM! model charts and the famous "Murr sausage" which is thought to have related to high pressure in the Scandinavian region shaped much like, erm, a sausage.

 

I expect there are any number of doom mongers, naysayers and "winter is over" merchants feeling very foolish this morning - we're not over the line yet by any means and they may indeed have the last laugh if this wintry interlude implodes but the output this morning is encouraging to say the least and when Gibby starts ramping you know it's close 

 

Just seen Phil NW post above, erm, so GFS clearly backing everything nicely west in the 06z compared to the 0z

Edited January 24, 2014 by supernova

[Paul_1978]

People getting very excited but it's not a done deal by any means.

Yes the start is all close to t+144 but remember it's a knife edge situation.

I would keep the excitement tempered until another couple of ECMs. But that's just me!

[summer blizzard]

These are the days I've been dreaming of, it's been a long hard slog through the extended autumn but now there is a burning bright light of anticipation for a complete change in the landscape of the NH profile and a deep covering of drifting snow..model melt down is within touching distance.

 

I'm pleased with the outlook myself but i'd not rule out a rebound late in the month akin to 09 or 12. The stratosphere is better than early winter but any massive warming is being pushed back and muted meaning that supporting factors for sustainability are not massive.

 

Anyhow, pretty chilly from the models next week..

 

[Downpour]

That’s not the forecast I saw, potential fog across East Anglia this morning, rain here in the west by 10 o’clock ish, rain not across the east until later in the afternoon. It’s just starting to rain here now.

The rain is not threatening the London area - stalling over the western fringes of the Chilterns. Block stronger?

[Downpour]

As somebody who was always open to the view that the Atlantic might not just barge its way in as originally forecast, I do wonder what the implications are based on the present weather, not exactly going to plan right now as far as I can see.

 

240114 1000GMT NW v6 radar.png

 

In my experience, what the current picture suggests is that the block is far stronger than anticipated at this stage and the route to cold may well come earlier than expected. Just check the latest radar and satellite imagery and it appears to me at least, that the precipitation is much lighter and taking an entirely trajectory out of the UK, seemingly passing away ESE'wards away from our shores. How this ongoing trend effects the weekend's events will be fascinating to watch and I firmly expect an entirely different setup into next week as a result, IMHO there will be changes to the UKMO forecasts in the shorter-term. Whether I'm correct, time will tell and anybody with some insight please tell me if I'm far of the mark.

 

Below are the expected movements of the rainbands and associated fronts over the coming 24 hours, firstly the latest analysis followed by one 24 hours later, courtesy of the Fax Charts.

 

240114 MetO Fax Chart - current time.png240114 MetO Fax Chart - t+24.png

 

Hopefully things will change for the better given how the flooding issues are seemingly never ending and a change in weather type must be most welcomed by many.

Indeed. Excellent post. I reckon London is staying bone dry today - the East pushing in??

[shedhead]

Given what extended Autumn has delivered so far, it's hard to see how anyone can be disappointed with this T+144hrs, if for no other reason than a dry perspective....

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Indeed. Excellent post. I reckon London is staying bone dry today - the East pushing in??

 

Doesn't make me right though but it is curious to say the least.

[snowbob]

No comments on the 6z

Everyone to scared to look

Funny thing model watching

Spent weeks looking forward to the 12 z

Now I don't wanna look

Incase of change

Edited January 24, 2014 by snowbob

[SMU]

Well If you take the fact the GFS is poor in blocked scenarios, the fact it has a eastward bias , The fact that it models 850's to high to the east, the fact its the 06z then your left with probably the most eastward solution.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012406/gfsnh-0-180.png?6

 

pretty good there.

 

 

Who wants a virtual sportsmans bet that the slider doesn't get east past Ireland......

 

S

Edited January 24, 2014 by Steve Murr

[mountain shadow]

Who wants a vitual sportsmans bet that the slider doesn't get east past Ireland...... S

That's what I'm hoping for Steve, a nice slider West of my front door will do fine.

[bluearmy]

Well If you take the fact the GFS is poor in blocked scenarios, the fact it has a eastward bias , The fact that it models 850's to high to the east, the fact its the 06z then your left with probably the most eastward solution.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012406/gfsnh-0-180.png?6

 

pretty good there.

 

 

Who wants a vitual sportsmans bet that the slider doesn't get east past Ireland......

 

S

 

Was just musing over exactly that thought steve. great minds eh ??

 

ordinarily i would be heading that way but the strength of the jet makes me think we could strike very lucky. this is why i've not been too bothered by the vortex staying strong. we need systems headed across the atlantic to feed the cold headed west.

Edited January 24, 2014 by bluearmy

[shedhead]

Well If you take the fact the GFS is poor in blocked scenarios, the fact it has a eastward bias , The fact that it models 850's to high to the east, the fact its the 06z then your left with probably the most eastward solution.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012406/gfsnh-0-180.png?6

 

pretty good there.

 

 

Who wants a vitual sportsmans bet that the slider doesn't get east past Ireland......

 

S

IF the cold gets established as shown midweek, then that will be increasingly likely imo.

[Mucka]

Well If you take the fact the GFS is poor in blocked scenarios, the fact it has a eastward bias , The fact that it models 850's to high to the east, the fact its the 06z then your left with probably the most eastward solution.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012406/gfsnh-0-180.png?6

 

pretty good there.

 

 

Who wants a vitual sportsmans bet that the slider doesn't get east past Ireland......

 

S

 

Certainly not me but let's not get too cocky just yet. 

Personally I feel quite confident the way things are going but it seems Easterlies are most likely to fail just when we have model agreement they will happen.

[mike Meehan]

Given what extended Autumn has delivered so far, it's hard to see how anyone can be disappointed with this T+144hrs, if for no other reason than a dry perspective....

 

I'm not sure what the anomaly is but with the sea temps being pretty well above usual on our side of the North Sea - 7C off the North East Coast and 9C down to the Thames Estuary area - would this give a greater chance of picking up moisture allowing the more privileged areas to get streamers?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Like I said earlier their is further warmings in the stratosphere in the next 2 weeks , not a SSW by any means but the strongest warmings at 30hpa of the season , and all within the reliable time frame , what effects this will have remains to be seen but the split vortex we see next week is certainly from the wave 1/2 activity from recent weeks along with the minor warmings they bring , so given the fact that we are now entering a time when the vortex weakens anyway I see much to be excited about

[Bolton67]

I'm not sure what the anomaly is but with the sea temps being pretty well above usual on our side of the North Sea - 7C off the North East Coast and 9C down to the Thames Estuary area - would this give a greater chance of picking up moisture allowing the more privileged areas to get streamers?

 

 

Looking at that chart, looks perfect for the wash streamer....  TEITS ?

Edited January 24, 2014 by lancs_northants

[summer blizzard]

I'm not sure what the anomaly is but with the sea temps being pretty well above usual on our side of the North Sea - 7C off the North East Coast and 9C down to the Thames Estuary area - would this give a greater chance of picking up moisture allowing the more privileged areas to get streamers?

 

Yes. The theta chart above simply indicates that dew points will be very good.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS blows away the block in FI-

Quelle suprise,what a joke of a model it really is....

In the high res we at least see some snow events as the Atlantic pushes up against the block to the NE.

[shedhead]

From here on the term 'battleground Britain' does seem a fair one to use. IF the 06 GFS were to verify as shown some parts of the UK would see shedloads of snow (no pun intended!) from later next week onwards, but equally there could be a lot of rain around at times too for those on the wrong side of a fluctuating boundary. 

 

As far as I'm concerned the most important thing (apart from rain across the next couple of days) is getting the proper cold air in from the NE midweek, because if that happens it will be much more difficult for fronts to push east and we would probably start to see more snow than rain. The alternative is clearly not the kind of Atlantic based set up we saw in Dec, but rather similar to what we are seeing now, with probably more rain than snow. 

 

More runs needed, but for now trend is our friend imo.

Edited January 24, 2014 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

People getting very excited but it's not a done deal by any means.

 

It's done and dusted, very wintry spell is in the bag. even the met office are going with a much colder spell now. I will make this prediction for next week, a bucket load of gold stars for fergieweather and steve, and significant snow, ice, frost & drifting for all of us..thank you to the weather gods for smiling on the long suffering coldies at last.

[Blizzardof82]

As others have stated the block is stronger than the models are suggesting, today in Bristol being a perfect example. I was expecting to wake to moderate continuous rain however it's just light drizzle intermittent  and looking at radar its all gone south in to France.

[picog]

CFS v2 going for a warm Greenland in February — to me that signals cold for the UK

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

[shedhead]

It's done and dusted, very wintry spell is in the bag. even the met office are going with a much colder spell now. I will make this prediction for next week, a bucket load of gold stars for fergieweather and steve, and significant snow, ice, frost & drifting for all of us..thank you to the weather gods for smiling on the long suffering coldies at last.

Hope that post is 'tongue in cheek' Frosty, because otherwise it has 'kiss of death' written right through it....

[cyclonic happiness]

Frosty has just scared the living daylights out of me!!

Best get the BBQ out next week then :-)