Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[SMU]

Thanks eagle

The 144 is epic and certainly sees deep cold moving wsw across europe

Also uk snow at 120/144 will be a feature

Plus the big bonus is the atlantic is blown away as well.

Looks almost as good as last nights navgem ....

Big eyebrow raising at exeter HQ this morning

If the rest of the uk meto models follow suit expect the forecast wording to change dramatically

Still need another 48 hours of these decent runs,,,

S

[The Eagle]

Thanks eagle

The 144 is epic and certainly sees deep cold moving wsw across europe

Also uk snow at 120/144 will be a feature

Plus the big bonus is the atlantic is blown away as well.

Looks almost as good as last nights navgem ....

Big eyebrow raising at exeter HQ this morning

If the rest of the uk meto models follow suit expect the forecast wording to change dramatically

Still need another 48 hours of these decent runs,,,

S

 

 

Here it is on WZ

 

 

How awesome is that not for what it shows but what it would show at 168? That's the trigger being pulled right there.

Edited January 23, 2014 by The Eagle

[geordiekev]

Some of the 0z runs looking a bit better today. I still feel we need to wait until the incoming low interacts with the high and FI is still within +96.

Jma 0z looking a decent evolution up to & beyond 7d but still feel is on a knife edge and we do have a wet and windy weekend to worry about 1st with all that zonal dross falling from the skies.

If the chart below comes off my home location in Consett will be sharing the same air mass and temperatures as my current Location in Alicante, albeit uk will be in a favoured NE flow.

Edited January 23, 2014 by geordiekev

[The PIT]

GFS follows ukmo idea from the previous runs and slides the low south. UKMO nice enough. Further out in FI land in GFS the Atlantic still has enough power to challenge the block but low pressure slides SE which is what we want.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well well well...

UKMO showing very good consistency.

Fergie's thoughts might be worth a read today...

[Biggin]

I think the original poster was referencing this thread  http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78985-atlantic-storms-january-2014/?view=getnewpost  and was quite an innocent comment?

It was indeed, and thanks for that Cloud 10, Gibby was voicing concern about the effect of the modelled possible storm, thats where I would go for more up to date info.

Sure it will and should be discussed in here, but Gibby will get more info there I am sure?? Oh well thats what you get for trying to help people.

[shaky]

Yes. It's out. Here it is. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1021&ech=6&archive=0  (Not on WZ yet though it will look even better there)

weird!!I have just gone on meteociel right now and nothings is updating!!how the hell did you find those 0z charts!!

[winterof79]

Wetterzentrale ECM low not as far s/e as UKMO at same time Cold pushing west though

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

96z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

120z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

Edited January 23, 2014 by winterof79

[winterof79]

Heights reinforcing to our n/e at 144z

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

 

And nicely does it

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Edited January 23, 2014 by winterof79

[Mark Neal.]

Lovely UKMO this morning, quite some consistency over its last few runs. GFS and UKMO both look good for a period of snow as the low disrupts and moves SE, all conjecture ofcourse!

Edited January 23, 2014 by Mark N

[Great Plum]

Out in the land of fantasies, but this would keep those of us who like the cold very happy if it came off...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

[shaky]

Cmon fergie blast us with a wintry update today!!folks at the office must be a little more confident now of a wintry outbreak which many of us have been ccraving for a long time!!ecm has has improved this this morning but more especialyy the gfs!!and there's no words to describe the ukmo its just fantastic in its consistency!!

[Nick F]

00z Euro operationals look far more inspiring than the progressive GFS counterpart this morning, a cleaner build of pressure heights to the N and NW thanks to more amplification in the flow upstream over the N Atlantic - which means a few days window of a cold NE flow. Trough disruption not one of GFS's strong points, so would have more faith in the Euros.

 

The Atlantic odds on favourite to come back in though, so could be a cold snap rather than a spell, but miles better than anything we've experienced this winter thus far.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Nick F

[ZONE 51]

[Captain Shortwave]

Good output in the mid-range with a deep low forming over central Europe which should be able to deliver snow for at least some of the UK. Later on the models do seem keen to want to transfer energy from the Siberian segment of the PV to the Canada/Greenland segment. What a kill joy, someone give that Siberian vortex a good talking to!!! 

UKMO looks best this morning, could we be about to get the whole block of cold to our east to move in our direction (maybe if the Atlantic stays asleep a little longer)

[That ECM]

00z Euro operationals look far more inspiring than the progressive GFS counterpart this morning, a cleaner build of pressure heights to the N and NW thanks to more amplification in the flow upstream over the N Atlantic - which means a few days window of a cold NE flow. Trough disruption not one of GFS's strong points, so would have more faith in the Euros. The Atlantic odds on favourite to come back in though, so could be a cold snap rather than a spell, but miles better than anything we've experienced this winter thus far.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6111/UN144-21_otk6.GIFOf course this maybe not correct but with a few tweaks and the Atlantic would struggle. Certainly would take a snap that develops into a spell!

[winterof79]

Next week if the Euros are to be believed brings an easterly flow followed by a cold n/westerly

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012300/ECH1-216.GIF?23-12

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yes,ECM also  brings in some cold air and before anyone jumps in with a 'here comes the Atlantic zonal regime',yes it is zonal but is COLD zonal.

Exciting stuff, could our fortunes be about to turn>

[Ali1977]

Is a big swing towards a beast unfolding, let's hope it's a day of upgrades towards that.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Out in the land of fantasies, but this would keep those of us who like the cold very happy if it came off...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

EASTERLY flow,-5 uppers= snow

[snowice]

 colder uppers at 144 ukmo vs ecm you got to say ukmo has been showing the way last few runs

 

 

[bluearmy]

it appears that not only do we have tickets to the raffle, but news has leaked out that we have the right coloured tickets!! things backing west that bit further to bring us well into wintry contention. i do feel like going out on a limb re the atlantic ridge. those runs which have amplified that feature have led to a sustained looking cold scenario or an over running jet which flattens it all out. is the safer option to go for more of the same now it looks as though we can back the trough disruption far enough sw ??? the ukmo looks a better bet at day 6 than the more amplified atlantic ridge solutions. also, anecdotally, those runs with a less defined atlantic ridge have kept the blocking to our north/northeast in a more favourable position.

Edited January 23, 2014 by bluearmy

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Yes models smelling the cheese put out 2 days ago by the ukmo and chasing it like rats searching for their last meal . . .

With the first low on Monday sinking southeast , cold uppers arriving from east , then as that sinks into Europe the next low pressure system comes in and follows the path made by Mondays low , but with cold uppers already embedded next week is beginning to look a snowy week , not a done deal , but very good signs.

Yes the whole profile looks a lot better today not just from the ukmo but the gfs and ECM , northern blocking looking better and certainly dictating the flow a lot more, once the ECM gets past 168 it rapidly strengthens the vortex again as it does a lot this year , whereas the gfs shows a disrupted vortex well into fi land , we don't know which if any will be right but we know their is warmings forecast in the next few wks and that will help create more volatile outputs to keep us all on our toes !

But all in all a very good view this morning , let's hope the mood in hear a bit lighter today because it makes me and others I'm guessing not wanto look on hear , I have enough bickering with my wife and don't want it on hear aswel !

[nick sussex]

UKMO top of the tree this morning, shallower feature and more favourably orientated, this looks like some good snow as theres colder air to tap into to the east.

 

The ECM okay but not as good in terms of the low, still though better than last nights 12hrs run, the GFS the third best but interestingly it has some trough disruption to the west towards the end of the higher resolution.

 

For those wanting snow you want that UKMO more slider set up , you want the low moving ese/se and not south like the ECM, this will draw less cold air into parts of Europe rather than the UKMO which because it slides more energy under the block further east will keep the important part of Europe in terms of cold potential for the UK alot colder.

Edited January 23, 2014 by nick sussex

[Man With Beard]

Well if the pattern could be persuaded south in the T96-T144 zone i.e. a switch to cold/snow, the UK may dodge a bullet too. That low on GFS / UKMO would cause newsworthy disruption for rain and gales, as it stands. Snow on the back edge looking likely, in northern areas at least.

Edited January 23, 2014 by rjbw