Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[winterof79]

18z pub run off to an atrocious start

 

Agreed and with a lot of cold air wrapped around the storm too.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012218/gfs-1-96.png?18

[karlos1983]

18z pub run off to an atrocious start

 

Are you actually on a wind up? Almost identical. It's getting tiresome now Purga

[Geordiesnow]

One thing is certain Biggin, a big stormy low will definately hit the uk on sunday, no question about it..batten down the hatches again and get the sand bags ready in flood prone areas.

 

Although the UK is likely to get affected by this deep low pressure system in terms of rainfall, whether the winds will come into play is far from certain yet and we probably won't get a full extent of what might happen on Sunday until Friday at least. However it does have the potential to be quite a rapidly deep low pressure  as its interacts with the jet stream.

[Skyraker]

18z pub run off to an atrocious start

 

Explain Purgatory please... for once in your life.

[Gaz1985]

So yet another winter storm brewing in the nw Atlantic with our name on it for Sunday into Monday, although not coinciding with spring tides like the storms of a few weeks ago it will still produce a lot of unwanted rain for money, thermal gradients behind the initial front seem very marked dropping from +5 to -5 850s in a very short space of time could cause very heavy rain followed by a spell of sleet and snow in heavier bursts almost anywhere settling above 300 metres then Monday into Tuesday? Anyone's guess.

 

I reckon for the Pennines and Scotland maybe as low as 200m. These areas in the firing line. And with dew points lowering followed by evaporative cooling some may get down to 100-150m. Still it is a fickle thing snowfall and almost a nowcast situation at times!

[fergieweather]

I am sure there is a thread on here somewhere bout the approaching rain / poss deep low pressure.

 

Hang about: if the very same system was offering a foot of snow, it would be discussed ad infinitum on this particular thread, without any query whatsoever and no hints at such postings getting 'bounced'.

 

The polarisation of supposedly 'valid' model discussion / interest / extremes solutions merely being those offering cold/snow is, in my view, rather wearying and surely spurious (I hope the mods will agree). Last year, a 'hunt for cold' thread was specifically started to ensure focal point for the cold-seeking stuff; surely this thread is to discuss ALL wx types from the models in winter with EQUAL validity... not least when the threat of very wet weather is showing loud and clear in reliable modelling and is of great interest to a number of people on the forum, including, I have no doubt, coldies with wider meteorological interests/appreciation.

 

I fully get that various people want snow and are seeking for it across all output - that's wholly reasonable. But you will have to appreciate those who are rightly posting about the here-and-now issues of pressing weather /model interest, which happen to be heavy rain events likely to cause considerable disruption.

[weather_it_will]

18z pub run off to an atrocious start

 

 

 

Yes, More Cold Rain. More Floods.

Edited January 22, 2014 by 'ColdIsBest'

[gottolovethisweather]

The mods have a hard enough time in here at the best of times so I suggest people should kindly please get back to DISCUSSING THE MODEL OUTPUTS, otherwise certain people will be banned from posting or much worse AJPOOLSHARK will be out with his joke book.

Edited January 22, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[chionomaniac]

Hang about: if the very same system was offering a foot of snow, it would be discussed ad infinitum on this particular thread, without any query whatsoever and no hints at such postings getting 'bounced'.

 

The polarisation of supposedly 'valid' model discussion / interest / extremes solutions merely being those offering cold/snow is, in my view, rather wearying and surely spurious (I hope the mods will agree). Last year, a 'hunt for cold' thread was specifically started to ensure focal point for the cold-seeking stuff; surely this thread is to discuss ALL wx types from the models in winter with EQUAL validity... not least when the threat of very wet weather is showing loud and clear in reliable modelling and is of great interest to a number of people on the forum, including, I have no doubt, coldies with wider meteorological interests/appreciation.

 

I fully get that various people want snow and are seeking for it across all output - that's wholly reasonable. But you will have to appreciate those who are rightly posting about the here-and-now issues of pressing weather /model interest, which happen to be heavy rain events likely to cause considerable disruption.

Whereas Ian, the majority on here are searching for cold, I can assure you that the MOD thread is here to discuss all types of output and outcomes and that the type of winter storm brewing is another noteworthy one and worthy of discussion. It was for that reason that the off topic discussion was moved into another thread.

 

I have witnessed only too closely the effects of the strong jet stream this winter and can certainly agree on its terrible disruptive nature. Please now keep on topic all, thank you.

[Cloud 10]

Hang about: if the very same system was offering a foot of snow, it would be discussed ad infinitum on this particular thread, without any query whatsoever and no hints at such postings getting 'bounced'.

 

The polarisation of supposedly 'valid' model discussion / interest / extremes solutions merely being those offering cold/snow is, in my view, rather wearying and surely spurious (I hope the mods will agree). Last year, a 'hunt for cold' thread was specifically started to ensure focal point for the cold-seeking stuff; surely this thread is to discuss ALL wx types from the models in winter with EQUAL validity... not least when the threat of very wet weather is showing loud and clear in reliable modelling and is of great interest to a number of people on the forum, including, I have no doubt, coldies with wider meteorological interests/appreciation.

 

I fully get that various people want snow and are seeking for it across all output - that's wholly reasonable. But you will have to appreciate those who are rightly posting about the here-and-now issues of pressing weather /model interest, which happen to be heavy rain events likely to cause considerable disruption.

 

I think the original poster was referencing this thread  http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78985-atlantic-storms-january-2014/?view=getnewpost  and was quite an innocent comment?

[Geordiesnow]

Agreed and with a lot of cold air wrapped around the storm too.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012218/gfs-1-96.png?18

 

Don't get confused by the colours with the thicknesses. in a deep storm like this, the cold air gets mixed out especially in the centre of it and in the end, the UK gets cool uppers only. 

[A.J]

Hang about: if the very same system was offering a foot of snow, it would be discussed ad infinitum on this particular thread, without any query whatsoever and no hints at such postings getting 'bounced'.

 

The polarisation of supposedly 'valid' model discussion / interest / extremes solutions merely being those offering cold/snow is, in my view, rather wearying and surely spurious (I hope the mods will agree). Last year, a 'hunt for cold' thread was specifically started to ensure focal point for the cold-seeking stuff; surely this thread is to discuss ALL wx types from the models in winter with EQUAL validity... not least when the threat of very wet weather is showing loud and clear in reliable modelling and is of great interest to a number of people on the forum, including, I have no doubt, coldies with wider meteorological interests/appreciation.

 

I fully get that various people want snow and are seeking for it across all output - that's wholly reasonable. But you will have to appreciate those who are rightly posting about the here-and-now issues of pressing weather /model interest, which happen to be heavy rain events likely to cause considerable disruption.

Wanna Bet?....you haven't met OON yet Ian!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hang about: if the very same system was offering a foot of snow, it would be discussed ad infinitum on this particular thread, without any query whatsoever and no hints at such postings getting 'bounced'.

 

The polarisation of supposedly 'valid' model discussion / interest / extremes solutions merely being those offering cold/snow is, in my view, rather wearying and surely spurious (I hope the mods will agree). Last year, a 'hunt for cold' thread was specifically started to ensure focal point for the cold-seeking stuff; surely this thread is to discuss ALL wx types from the models in winter with EQUAL validity... not least when the threat of very wet weather is showing loud and clear in reliable modelling and is of great interest to a number of people on the forum, including, I have no doubt, coldies with wider meteorological interests/appreciation.

 

I fully get that various people want snow and are seeking for it across all output - that's wholly reasonable. But you will have to appreciate those who are rightly posting about the here-and-now issues of pressing weather /model interest, which happen to be heavy rain events likely to cause considerable disruption.

 

Try not to be put of by the very many differing moods and viewpoints in here, Fergie. Please continue posting your most informative updates as you as you were previously, I appreciate your efforts and clearly many others do too. It's not as if you lot (the MetO) haven't got enough on your plate and we don't need any more food to feed any trolls.

 

A note to all, no more one liners, some actual constructive comments about the models from here on in would be most welcome.

Edited January 22, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[fergieweather]

New E4 retains snow signal to low levels tomorrow anywhere N Wales northwards. .. equally it bolsters rain amounts Friday.

[winterof79]

Don't get confused by the colours with the thicknesses. in a deep storm like this, the cold air gets mixed out especially in the centre of it and in the end, the UK gets cool uppers only.

You are correct only on its exit will the colder air bocome an issue..if it exits

[john mac]

New E4 retains snow signal to low levels tomorrow anywhere N Wales northwards. .. equally it bolsters rain amounts Friday.

Not good ian, is it me or have you not really mentioned the MOGREPS today?

[gottolovethisweather]

New E4 retains snow signal to low levels tomorrow anywhere N Wales northwards. .. equally it bolsters rain amounts Friday.

 

How to win friends and influence them.  Jesting aside, not many non active days coming up it appears right out to the start of February perhaps, although I did hear on the TV forecasts, Saturday might be a quieter day, make the most of it. Thanks for the updates.

Edited January 22, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[chionomaniac]

Models please.....

[Blue max 90]

Northerly winds pulling in behind Sundays low pressure would surely bring hefty wintry showers down across the country by midweek. Finally a decent snap of winter looks odds on IMO. But yes, short term that low is looking worryingly menacing, there have been lots of issues in glos and the rain will certainly not be welcome

[Frosty.]

[quote name="gottolovethisweather" or much worst AJPOOLSHARK will be out with his joke book.

[Team Jo]

Bickering and sniping and sarcasm isn't welcome in this thread, and I've just weeded out some fairly uncool posts.

We all have our preferences, and everyone has an opinion. This is fine. If someone differs in opinion to you, don't take it personally. It's not their fault that we aren't under six feet of snow.

Please think about what you're saying, and if you'd actually say it to someone in person without causing a confrontation that would result in a punch up.

Much love, Jo.

[karlos1983]

Incredibly similar 12z GFS vs 18z GFS and at +192 or is it just me?

12z

18z

Almost impressive

Edited January 22, 2014 by karlos1983

[Ali1977]

Asian and Alaskan high on the move towards each steve at 276

[bluearmy]

th upcoming phase of modelling where a small depression with a bg thermal gradient around it deepens rapidly and tracks up to phase with an existing system, the new depression then swirling in situ and then drifting se across the UK. can't say I've seen this evolution too often. Anyone want to pick an analogue?

[SMU]

So after 2 days of runs I am calling the 18z NAVGEM in partner ship with the UKMO seems the likely form horse.

 

From here out to 144.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=180&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

S