Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[tight isobar]

Nice viewing and indeed in sync with ukmo. 12zecm,

[The Eagle]

It looks better to me at 144. Yes it's slight cold delay but i'd bank that.

[Panayiotis]

So the ECM has gone onto follow the NAVGEM ( LINK ) Now can we got those sustained heights to the N/NE:

Edited January 22, 2014 by Panayiotis

[cooling climate]

LOL what the hell is going on. We got the ridge amplification but the low

does not want to sink south. Stupid I known but it is as if the models are

conspiring to keep the cold out of the UK.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECH1-144.GIF?22-0

 

NEARLY NEARLY from the ECM-

 

Atlantic upstream is shut down.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECU1-144.GIF?22-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECU0-144.GIF?22-0

 

Snow flurries into Eastern Scotland.

 

S

and that's at t144 steve so once again anything is possible still knife edge.

[shaky]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECH1-144.GIF?22-0 NEARLY NEARLY from the ECM- Atlantic upstream is shut down. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECU1-144.GIF?22-0http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECU0-144.GIF?22-0 Snow flurries into Eastern Scotland. S

what do you think of the thicknesses on that chart steve?cold.enough for snow maybe even though we only got -3 uppers?

[Frosty.]

Models trending colder and the met office 6-15 day also looks more wintry than previously this winter..it looks like some parts of the uk will get snow at times during the next few weeks.

[fergieweather]

LOL what the hell is going on. We got the ridge amplification but the lowdoes not want to sink south. Stupid I known but it is as if the models areconspiring to keep the cold out of the UK.

But not the rain. And that's by far the key forecast headline for now. Very troubling look to Fri - Sun onwards.

[MR EXTREMES]

LOL what the hell is going on. We got the ridge amplification but the lowdoes not want to sink south. Stupid I known but it is as if the models areconspiring to keep the cold out of the UK.

that's areally good point cc why cant the low just sweep se into Europe there no reason to why it cant which leads me to believe that anything is possible even in the short range.

[Summer Sun]

Looking like high pressure is going to build at t192 on ECM if t168 is anything to go by

 

 

Following GEM pretty well so far

 

Edited January 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6422/ECH0-168_rlc6.GIF

US is certainly having a winter to remember.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

 

JMA wants to set off a Rampede tonight ( 3 days running ) Inline with the UKMO but shades better-

 

ECM 168- NICE but not the best run of the day

 

S

[Skullzrulerz]

Great this big low is going to bring a load of rain and wind where its hit its target  which is only 4-5 away.

[Panayiotis]

One must not forget the JMA! Widespread snow from these charts!

Nice output tonight, hopefully we get to see some consistency and verification from the JMA! 

Steve beat me to it!

Edited January 22, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Downpour]

That low is too far north! 300 miles south and we are in business (but we aren't!)

[MR EXTREMES]

energy coming out of the states buckling the azores but is it to progressive are the models over cooking the polar vortex will the vortex be modelled in the right area these are all things that make a massive difference.

 

I think fi is 96 until the finer detail is sorted.

[The Eagle]

Looking like high pressure is going to build at t192 on ECM if t168 is anything to go by

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jet stream going over the top. It's only going one way unfortunately.

Edited January 22, 2014 by The Eagle

[Purga]

But not the rain. And that's by far the key forecast headline for now. Very troubling look to Fri - Sun onwards.

Absolutely! Snow is a non issue, it's that damned rain I'm watching that could cause real problems.

[fergieweather]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0 JMA wants to set off a Rampede tonight ( 3 days running ) Inline with the UKMO but shades better- ECM 168- NICE but not the best run of the day S

On all levels Steve, it's a forecasting mess and varied impacts to be considered.

[snowice]

We need a bit of consistency from the ecm i hope the 00z in the morning is similar as tonights run!

[MR EXTREMES]

energy coming out of the states buckling the azores but is it to progressive are the models over cooking the polar vortex will the vortex be modelled in the right area these are all things that make a massive difference.

 

I think fi is 96 until the finer detail is sorted.

the jma is my Jessica alba and steves right every run is like a night with Jessica.....

[fergieweather]

Absolutely! Snow is a non issue, it's that damned rain I'm watching that could cause real problems.

Yes but I said "for now". Various outcomes next week to factor in (note JMA still bullish).

[skifreak]

US is certainly having a winter to remember.

Some parts are having a winter that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons in terms of snow. It basically hasn't snowed in any meaningful sense this season at the Snowsport Areas around Lake Tahoe, California. What is open is nearly all machine made snow. It looks mostly Sunny for the for almost another week at least, then perhaps a chance of something less settled - but will it actually bring any precipitation to the Tahoe Basin?

[Downpour]

The JMA is a pearler but ECM wants to deliver yet another deluge except for the far north of Scotland which sits proudly on the cold side of the depression

Edited January 22, 2014 by Downpour

[Summer Sun]

Something more settled at t192

 

 

Still chilly for most