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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


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Good agreement between ECM and UKMO regarding the Arctic high, GFS will get there eventually.

 

ECM/UKMO/GFS 144h

 

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UKMO the best of the bunch for cold prospects and given the bomb ECM threw at the block that just bounced off (forcing the pattern a little further East) then we can start to have some confidence that we will get low pressure pushing into Europe around day 6. If we achieve that then the last piece of the puzzle will be seeing a more amplified pattern behind.

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Just when you think about throwing in the towel, the GFS and UKMO produce extremely 'interesting' overnight runs; a far cry from the 12z's.  ECM looking to get in on the act too with this at 168.  I would wager that the 192 will be very nice

 

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Well, the ECM has got out of the wrong side of bed this morning... It is the most progressive with pushing the Scandi block out of the way...Here are the big 3 at 120 hours...GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png - Scandi high holding wellUKMO:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gifLess well but has potentialECM:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gifJust a couple of hundred miles makes the difference!Overall, a much more positive set this morning than last night... The GFS sticks us in some pretty cold air in FI - we are only a little way from -10 air from the northeast - all conjecture of course..

Many would take this from the ECM though!http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5095/ECH1-168_tod7.GIF
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Aaah the GFS has now returned to be the favourite model I presume due to showing a cold outlook. It will be interesting if the ECM backs it up. UKMO shows the block just hanging on. So all eyes on the ECM i suspect it will confirm the earlier run with the Atlantic powering through.

Not too bad if thats the Atlantic powering through

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012000/ECH1-192.GIF?20-12

Think people are only posting what they see really.UKMO,GFS and GEM all colder output today

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well well well if the gfs is correct then it looks likely I will get my net weather 3day ban.

I bank please.

this is a less frustrating chart and the ukmo is also very much like the gfs to but Im still not convinced but this is the type of charts you want.

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What  a wonderful upgrade by the GFS this morning, the UKMO also very nice, the ECM is getting on my wick, after producing non supported cold solutions it now refuses to jump on board when the other models improve!

 

At least the trend is in the right direction, and a shout out to the NAM which last night picked that increase in amplification upstream which allows a westwards correction.

 

Overall we're looking at the phase or non phase upstream which will decide whether we finally see some more extended colder weather.

Edited by nick sussex
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Morning All

Once again the UKMO is the trend setter with the atlantic sheared away SE in the 120/144 timeframe and the best vertical ridging to the arctic high-

At this rate there will be no atlantic arrival.

ECM sort of getting there but is on a string of progressive runs, its better this morning but still seems to be pushing through fast.

GFS- finally follows the UKMO after days of missing the arctic high.

A shout out to the JMA that appears to have done well

We need more consistency this eve.....

indeed steve the jma lastnight was truly a winter chart well maybe the models herd my toys smashing on the floor from last night.

ukmo

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gfs

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ecm

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gem

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jma

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gefs

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could well call this cross model agreement up until t144 Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image 

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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A question to the more experienced members

With all models with the exception of the ECM at the moment, showing that once they come up against the block it's proving to be stronger than we all once thought.

So if the block to our east is being so under estimated by the time we get to fri will this not stop the Atlantic even getting past Ireland for example .

Sorry if it's a dumb question still trying to learn .

Thanks very much in advance

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A question to the more experienced membersWith all models with the exception of the ECM at the moment, showing that once they come up against the block it's proving to be stronger than we all once thought.So if the block to our east is being so under estimated by the time we get to fri will this not stop the Atlantic even getting past Ireland for example .Sorry if it's a dumb question still trying to learn .Thanks very much in advance

I would say it is certainly possibly that such a westward trend would continue, however I wouldn't bet on it. Blocking is often underestimated, but there are no guarantees with the weather. It's something look out for, and if the westward corrections continue throughout the next couple of days, then I'd be inclined to agree. However, it may well go the other way, as is the nature of such complex patterns!

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A question to the more experienced membersWith all models with the exception of the ECM at the moment, showing that once they come up against the block it's proving to be stronger than we all once thought.So if the block to our east is being so under estimated by the time we get to fri will this not stop the Atlantic even getting past Ireland for example .Sorry if it's a dumb question still trying to learn .Thanks very much in advance

Not sure I would put myself in the group of members you asked but IMO it's a watch with interest for the time being.
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Judging by a quick perusal of the overnight runs, the East meets West battle is still on. Posted Image I firmly believe it won't be resolved in terms of general synoptics until late Tuesday, perhaps Wednesday afternoon's runs. By then, we will know who gets snow (60 to 70% plus chance for Friday/Saturday right now?) if any and perhaps more importantly for a lot of us, where East meets West, that's when we will be into the <t+100 timeframe so brace yourself for some ups and downs over the coming few days. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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ECM is nearly there at +192 with joining the Azores High and the Arctic High, Gem is there and we would be looking at a cold output from that. , GFS also links ,although I believe breaks it down to quickly in FI, so that is almost Multi model agreement on a link up ... ECM +240 looks to fast looking at the NH profile. 

 

Think we may have turned a corner this morning and this is now getting in to High Res . 

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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A question to the more experienced membersWith all models with the exception of the ECM at the moment, showing that once they come up against the block it's proving to be stronger than we all once thought.So if the block to our east is being so under estimated by the time we get to fri will this not stop the Atlantic even getting past Ireland for example .Sorry if it's a dumb question still trying to learn .Thanks very much in advance

The models almost always seem to underestimate these sorts of blocks so it’s no wonder that we are seeing various ideas being mooted post 120hrs or so. However the problem for us is that we could just stay on the wrong side of the block, low pressure sitting on top of us and thus mostly rain (I would say odds on at this moment), the GFS and the UKMO have plenty of promise this morning, but 144hr projections will change, still better stuff this morning for those of us looking for cold.

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As we're in a lull between outputs thought I'd take a look at the latest SREF, thats the short range ensemble forecast system for the USA, the latest at 0300hrs shows the Newfoundland low further sw and a bit more amplification over the USA, there is a large spread of solutions though with the deepness of that and its exact track.

 

We need that low to hold back for as long as possible and it to be as amplified as possible which downstream would help with a further westwards correction.

 

The NAM will be out soon so will report that later, of course thats not to say the GFS 06hrs run will follow that trend as we've seen it can have an eastwards bias and even if it does theres still the matter of the ECM grinch which needs to move west.

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GFS Op was on the Cold side in the Ensembles , but the mean now for Central England is now around -3 @850mb from 27th out to the end of the run . mean is -5 on the 28th. 

 

Posted Image

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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today's output for the back end of this week should not be a surprise to those who were following all the output from the last 48 hours. Thereafter, we have to wait to see how all the big players interact. Although many would like to see a big greeny block, that takes a big leap of faith from an Atlantic perceptive but its just about possible as an xtension of the polar high. Therefore, given the enormous pressure from the vortex, a broad continuation of what we've been looking at seems to continue. That's disrupting systems against a scandi /Svalbard block. Sliders, undercutters - all possible but so are systems getting east of us. the continent should be colder so we have better chances of occlusions bringing snowfall. No easy predictions here.

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I know its always been hard for the UK to get cold spells but if we miss out this winter,then it must go down as the biggest fails in Net weather history

 

with cold air so near but yet so far away STILLPosted Image

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Well  im normally quite reserved in my analysis,so  i dont want to get too carried away this morning but there is for sure grounds for optimism if its colder weather you want (and lets face it,if you dont,your about   as welcome here as a cross dresser at a vladimir putin house party.)

GFS has shifted quite a considerable way west on its 0z run and ukmo looks better than yesterday.While ECM isn't quite as keen on the move westwards in the pattern its later slides are full of positives.

I really hope we can build on todays 0z runs! Posted Image

Edited by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
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One has to ask, which model lags behind which? Big differences again between the ECM and GFS 00Z, but now with the GFS closer to something a lot colder while the ECM is a lot more 'zonal' as such. Let's see what the 06Z and 12Z say later.

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