Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[MisfitDog3]

What is the core mb forecast for Sunday's storm? The track looks to be the worst possible for many across the heart and south of England! Is it likely to move through swiftly do people think?

[Chris K]

Very clever aj...

 

Whilst those are wise words, the main problem is we've been doing precisely that since mid November and unfortunately Winter does have a life span and as such the wait cannot go on indefinatly.  Clearly with 6 weeks still to go we remain 'in with a chance', but it won't be too long before we reach a point of no return as far as proper winter cold is concerned.

 

Wouldn't mind a quid for every time the 'P' word has been used in here since November, but the fact remains absolutely none of it has yet been realised...note YET....

 

If we do go past the point of no return, at least it will only be 9 months, or thereabouts, before we can start searching again

 

That is after our hot, thundery summer of course

 

 

What is the core mb forecast for Sunday's storm? The track looks to be the worst possible for many across the heart and south of England! Is it likely to move through swiftly do people think?

 

It depends how soon is starts to slow against the 'block' to our NE...it could fill slowly pretty much over the UK, meaning a unsettled, although probably more showery affair after the main band of rain.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Chris K

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What a ukmo!!snowy from 96 hours for many!!

Sorry but the chart @96 hrs doesn't scream snow to me at all!

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm961.gif

[Bristawl Si]

Gibby said:

Most models do show a deep Low pressure area slipping South over the UK next week and some do show a brief flirtation with something rather colder on the rear side of the exiting depression but with the Atlantic still being driven by a strong West to East flow over the Atlantic on the Northern Flank of a strong Azores High it is only a matter of hours rather than days before milder Westerly winds and further rain return across the UK later next week.

"a matter of hours"!

Gibby - can you be so certain - that's one hell of a punt!

[mulzy]

There is some interest in the day 6 range as highlighted by the UKMO-GM.

 

However, the longer term outlook is a lot worse this morning.  The ECM ensembles from day 9 onwards do not scream cold to me - if anything it screams renewed Atlantic push.

 

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

Edited January 22, 2014 by mulzy

[abruzzi spur]

Clearly with 6 weeks still to go we remain 'in with a chance', but it won't be too long before we reach a point of no return as far as proper winter cold is concerned.

Not.... please tell me you are not talking about.... the 'snow cut off point'?(One for those of a certain age and experience.....)AS

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Yes I agree, and the tipping point appears to be in the T+120 / 144 hours range which is much better than a long drawn out wait in the realms of FI. I think we are close to our first cold spell, especially via the stunning ukmo 0z slider low route,

Frosty I agree entirely , I think we're a lot closer now than the previous 6 wks , the models look full of interest , really puzzled by the downbeat nature this morning . Trough disruption with northern blocking on the 2 big 2 , yes the ECM is not too good but 2 out of 3 isn't bad. Snow for quite a few Sunday night and Monday , a taste of reall cold zonality for a change , followed by a very very cold block moving west. That to me screams potential , yes people get fed up of this word and it's understandable given the winter so far but things really are changing aloft and the vortex is prone to distortion and splits from now on given the change to the weakening westerly waves due to seasonal progression .But even if we don't see any snow this year which is highly unlikely it's not the end of the world and we all know how fast time goes by , another 9 months and it all starts again , but having past the solar maximum and in an -QBO faze next winter is already better than this one !!

[nick sussex]

Just when you thought the ECM couldn't get any worse it does this morning. I'm not sure what the French is for utter cack but that's it in a nutshell, flat as a pancake upstream and a cold blip of about 12hrs!

 

The UKMO is the best of the big 3 but I can't remember the last time it picked a colder solution at T144hrs against the ECM which actually verified, its happy to say no to cold at that timeframe against the others but it rarely works the other way round.

 

The differences over the ne USA are probably more timing , NCEP expect some breakdown of the east Pacific ridge to occur and this will inevitably lead to the ¨PV edging further east and flattening out.

 

Theres still a lot of uncertainty past 144hrs but for coldies out there we must not see the ECM operational run verify,looking at the ECM De Bilt ensembles for days 9 and 10 it is at the top  end of members so lets hope it pulls back this evening and stops the rot.

[weather eater]

I have to say I’m not filled with confidence this morning, yes here in high peak we have a chance to see some falling snow, some cold uppers in a NW flow but without a sustained cold block it’s going to be a rather soggy affair, any snow quickly going from white to a brown slush, like a slush puppy in a cess pit, not my idea of fun.

 

On a slightly more positive note, as ever it’s an evolving situation and I’d rather see the charts we have now for the mid range because I know they will evolve, maybe for the better, as I’ve said many times, Stella charts at 144hrs are a fools hope, they almost always come to nowt.

[Blizzardof82]

I have just read elsewhere there is support for UKMO 144 chart in the ECM ensembles and it should not be dismissed.

[nick sussex]

Its obvious looking at the ECM ensemble mean that its operational run is one of the flattest solutions for T144hrs over the ne USA, what we don't want now after weeks of its operational failing to garner ensemble support when it was picking colder solutions to suddenly change now and be the front runner!

[shedhead]

Frosty I agree entirely , I think we're a lot closer now than the previous 6 wks , the models look full of interest , really puzzled by the downbeat nature this morning . Trough disruption with northern blocking on the 2 big 2 , yes the ECM is not too good but 2 out of 3 isn't bad. Snow for quite a few Sunday night and Monday , a taste of reall cold zonality for a change , followed by a very very cold block moving west. That to me screams potential , yes people get fed up of this word and it's understandable given the winter so far but things really are changing aloft and the vortex is prone to distortion and splits from now on given the change to the weakening westerly waves due to seasonal progression .But even if we don't see any snow this year which is highly unlikely it's not the end of the world and we all know how fast time goes by , another 9 months and it all starts again , but having past the solar maximum and in an -QBO faze next winter is already better than this one !!

Can I ask where are you seeing the 'very, very cold block moving west' after Monday SSIB?

[Iceni]

After reading a couple of other forums, I don't follow the models to much, but they are talking about the PV taking another dive into America and re starting that jet stream any thoughts? 

 

Yes. AAAAAAARGH!  

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Can I ask where are you seeing the 'very, very cold block moving west' after Monday SSIB?

The high pressure of 1040 which is pretty strong is moving southwest deflecting the low pressure southeast , with cold air advancing west as the 850's chart shows

[Gibby]

Gibby said:Most models do show a deep Low pressure area slipping South over the UK next week and some do show a brief flirtation with something rather colder on the rear side of the exiting depression but with the Atlantic still being driven by a strong West to East flow over the Atlantic on the Northern Flank of a strong Azores High it is only a matter of hours rather than days before milder Westerly winds and further rain return across the UK later next week."a matter of hours"!Gibby - can you be so certain - that's one hell of a punt!

I concede that maybe a bit pessimistic but when typing it I was mindful that some models did not show any interjection from the East at all following this depression.

[Troubleatmill]

Can I ask where are you seeing the 'very, very cold block moving west' after Monday SSIB?

 UKMET? ok it doest show the the scandi high retrogressing but it does show the Arctic high linking up with it and strengthening blocking to our north and NE, so the same end product. will it happen? who knows, but as Ian said earlier, the cheif down there says we looking at a pivotal stage in our winter, if he's not sure, how can we be. Wish there was a definate and we could either accept more mild wet muddy rubbish or start looking for where will get the most snow, but we cant , have to accept that anything can happen, not something any of us like. admitidly starting to feel a little once bitten twice as shy with good looking charts, but its ok if you look at them as a whole.  

Edited January 22, 2014 by Nicholas B

[Frosty.]

Yes. AAAAAAARGH!  

If more energy goes into the southern arm of the jet it will massively increase the chances of snowy outbreaks. I think a colder spell will soon be with us.

[Downpour]

Its obvious looking at the ECM ensemble mean that its operational run is one of the flattest solutions for T144hrs over the ne USA, what we don't want now after weeks of its operational failing to garner ensemble support when it was picking colder solutions to suddenly change now and be the front runner!

Unfortunately Nick that is the way this excuse of a winter is going. I'm one of the more optimistic members normally but now I need full model agreement and ensemble support at T96 before I even think about snow.

[carinthian]

I can understand the doom and gloom setting in with ardent cold fans regarding the present set of models. Looks like the bog winter continues with no cruel frosts and fluffy snowflakes in the reliable time span of model predictions (ie 144hrs ). Maybe the UKMO latest  model gives a glimmer of hope to tap into some of the very much colder air mass lucking out to the NE. We have to have it in words from Exeter to confirm that expectation and as yet not forthcoming, but things can change quickly with blocking in progress.

C

Edited January 22, 2014 by carinthian

[karlos1983]

I can understand the doom and gloom setting in with ardent cold fans regarding the present set of models. Looks like the bog winter continues with no cruel frosts and fluffy snowflakes in the reliable time span of model predictions (ie 144hrs ). Maybe the UKMO latest  model gives a glimmer of hope to tap into some of the very much colder air mass lucking out to the NE. We have to have it in words from Exeter to confirm that expectation and as yet not forthcoming, but things can change quickly with blocking in progress.

C

 

Indeed, the next few days is now a crucial period of model output.

 

I have to say I am much happier that the UKMO is showing very good signs of cold at 144 rather than the GFS being on board and the UKMO not, especially as the ECM seems to be having none of it. Although the ECM has hardly covered itself in glory this winter where cold has been highlighted.

 

I shall be be glued to them,that's a dead cert! 

 

Come on winter, you know you want to 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The high over Greenland has grown in strength from 1024 to 1032 on the 06

[Summer Sun]

Some support for UKMO at t144 according to Matt Hugo

 

It would unlikely be sustained, but there is EC ENS support for the colder UKMO 144hr chart, so it shouldn't be dismissed. E/NE'ly possible.

[TEITS]

 

 

The UKMO is the best of the big 3 but I can't remember the last time it picked a colder solution at T144hrs against the ECM which actually verified, its happy to say no to cold at that timeframe against the others but it rarely works the other way round.

 

 

I can remember it was Jan 2013.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013011900-0-6.png?0

 

ECM/GFS handled the period dreadfully with the UKMO outperforming these during that cold spell.

[nick sussex]

I can remember it was Jan 2013.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013011900-0-6.png?0

 

ECM/GFS handled the period dreadfully with the UKMO outperforming these during that cold spell.

Oh well theres some hope, but the GFS 06hrs run so far just adds to the poor trend from the ECM this morning,those low heights remain attached to the UK low and the PV, theres a sea of shortwaves to the north which really make things very complicated and the block is further east because of it.

[EML Network]

Well this mornings ECM run has pretty much put one nail in the coffin for Autumn 2013 / 2014.

 

the Block to the NE retreats, the LP sinks well South of the UK and HP which has been superglued over the Azores for what feels like 10 months sits to the West ready to pounce and even scupper our chances of getting anything meaningfull cool zonality.

 

The Jet stream has been so strong this winter, fed by a massive Polar Vortex sitting upstream, feeding energy into the Jet to the point where even when the building blocks to a cold episode have been in place elsewhere we have not benefited from it due to being directly underneath the Jet Stream

 

the gfs at + 96 is typical of the Jet Stream's strenght and position all winter long, if the UK was situated another 500 miles to the East things would have been very different since the start of the new year.

 

so far IMBY this has been the worst winter I can remember in terms of annoying weather and probably the worst in my memory for cold and snow.

 

4 frosts all winter IMBY and none of them were exacltly hard frosts either.